By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors Inc. - 3 September, 2010
Short-term, “record gold prices” are a bit of a misnomer. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold’s real record price would be over $2,300 an ounce. Looking at our oscillators, gold appears to be far from overbought. The chart shows the 60-day oscillator for gold (yellow) and the U.S. dollar (green) for the past 10 years as of August 31. One standard deviation represents a 7.3 percent move in gold prices. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 3 September, 2010
Gold mining is a tough business. In the quest to meet growing global demand these miners are constantly barraged with challenge after challenge. They are attacked by environmentalists, targets of governmental meddling, purveyors of a science that is not exact, and must always fight to renew their finite resources. Full Story
SO GOLD is now at "fair value" says Bill Bonner, long-time gold bug and my former boss/partner-in-crime at The Daily Reckoning's London HQ. No, he won't sell yet...if ever...says Bill. But gold's huge under-pricing a decade ago has clearly passed by. Full Story
By: David Galland and Kevin Brekke, Casey Research - 3 September, 2010
The other day, I came across an article that said, while individuals may be moving their money out of equities, they have been moving into bond funds – and in a big way. It’s called jumping from the frying fan into the fire. Based on my experience as a co-founder of a mutual fund group, I can tell you that if there is one sure thing in this world, it’s that when investors rush en masse into an investment category, it is invariably at almost exactly the wrong time to do so. Is that the case with today’s rush into bonds? Full Story
Global stock markets are in a multi-year bull-market and nominal prices are likely to appreciate for several more months. In our view, we are currently amidst a normal multi-week consolidation phase and most stock markets are likely to stage a sharp year-end advance. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 3 September, 2010
As Americans have justifiably lost faith in the stock market, the classic buy-and-hold investment strategy has fallen from favor. The problem is that retail investors are wrongly equating the performance of stocks as a class with the trajectory of American stocks in particular. Fortunately, buy-and-hold still works in many parts of the world. If you are an American, just don't try it at home. Full Story
The privately owned US Federal Reserve Banking system held its annual Monetary Symposium at the fat cat resort at Jackson Hole, Wyoming in late August 2010. Since that event, the financial news wires have been ablaze with statements, procrastinations, predictions and assessments from this conference attempting to evaluate what was said about the US economy and what the Fed would do about it (since the Fed’s charter grants it a primary role and responsibility for stability and growth in the US economy). Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 3 September, 2010
I am standing on the corner of the street, doing my duty to “give back” to society, in this case by yelling at morons passing by in the cars, “We’re freaking doomed, you moron! Your own stupid government has destroyed you by letting the foul, fetid, festering Federal Reserve create too much money that they stupidly, stupidly, stupidly did... Full Story
Over the last few months there seems to be a growing awareness that the world economy has come up against an invisible wall. No matter how hard mainstream economists and other market commentators try to identify and explain what the missing piece of the puzzle is, the solution to the economic crisis seems to evade them. Full Story
Taking a deep look at the details of COMEX silver trading can be very illuminating as to why but when you understand what is really going on... it is downright infuriating! I've put together a rare glimpse into what REALLY happens when buyers and sellers get together to make a market in silver on the COMEX. I hope you are sitting down because this covers just 5 MINUTES of a ordinary trading day... Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Quinn Kiley - 2 September, 2010
Fiduciary Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager Quinn Kiley is a big believer in the MLP space and sees opportunities in closed-end funds and among individual MLPs. In this exclusive and candid interview with The Energy Report, Quinn discusses the state of the MLP asset class. Full Story
Many observers to the wild gyrations, deep contortions, extreme measures, and other bizarre activity in the government and banking arenas are suffering from severe confusion. The public is alarmed, even frightened, by the sequence of events, without much benefit of comprehension of what is happening or which clans are in control. The degree of deception hit a peak during the TARP Fund creation and disbursement, done behind private closed doors for the replenishment of sacred preferred stock, that bridge between corporate bonds and stock equity. The deception hit a very high pitch with the financial titan failures, the entire string of them. It has never stopped since. Full Story
We must immediately understand that the Fed can shower liquidity directly on the consumer in any amount it wants. The political pressure to do so will only increase as unemployment rises and economic growth falters. Therefore, rather than fearing phantom deflation, investors should prepare their portfolios for the real upcoming battle with intractable inflation. Full Story
By: The Gold Report, Jeff Mosseri & Doug Loud - 2 September, 2010
Everyday New York-based investment gurus Jeff Mosseri and Doug Loud make key decisions for their high net-worth clients. Many of those decisions involve strategically positioning investors in small- and micro-cap gold and silver plays. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, you will learn some hedges against a failing economy. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 2 September, 2010
Since I am known as something of a gold bug, a lot of people write to me about gold, but since I am a paranoid lunatic, I don’t read their letters, mostly because I now call myself Marvelous Macho Grande (MMG), figuring that an established alias could potentially come in handy... Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Alan Geik - 2 September, 2010
Alan Geik, whose razor-edged essays on our sordid political culture have gained him a loyal following at popular web sites, has been a lifelong student of frauds and scams, and so writing about this Era of Bailouts comes naturally to him. In the essay below (which contains some great links that we would encourage you to follow, including a video punch line at the end), he explains not only why the global financial crisis is not going away any time soon, but why it is likely to get much worse before it gets better. Full Story
By: Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Strategist, Casey’s Energy Opportunities - 1 September, 2010
The International Energy Association (IEA) has spoken. What the world needs now is a clean energy technology revolution. June saw the 2010 launch of IEA’s biannual report, Energy Technology Perspectives. Speaking at the launch was Nobuo Tanaka, executive director for IEA. The Gulf oil spill, he said, could prove to be a tipping point in the world’s energy consumption habits. He added that the disaster serves as a tragic reminder that our current path is not sustainable. Full Story
Why all the concern about Inflation, much less Hyperinflation? Isn’t the Private Sector Massively deleveraging? Yes. Hasn’t M3 been dramatically dropping in recent months (a Major Sign of an Economic Depression BTW)? Yes. Isn’t the U.S. and Key Major Nations GDP dropping (Real U.S. GDP is a Negative Number per Shadowstats.com – see below)? Yes. But consider that all of the aforementioned are Symptoms of a Stagnating Economy. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 1 September, 2010
Almost two years ago the US Treasury was selling large amounts of short-term Treasury bills to fund bailouts and stimulus. That caused a major increase in debt. Most of that paper was 2-year bills and it is coming due for rollover shortly. While that transpires, October will report the annual fiscal deficit of 9/30/10 of about $1.5 trillion, a figure thought impossible just 1-1/2 to 2 years ago. Full Story
How could California access its ‘credit worthiness’ when compared with other sovereigns like Italy with its nearly $2T in debt? Slap a bear on its IOUs, call it a California dollar while making it redeemable in silver, pass a bill to make California dollars legal tender and then impose taxes or prohibit the use of Federal Reserve Notes in California. Indeed, in conjunction with H.R. 4248 The Free Competition In Currency Act every State should begin issuing their own currency. Full Story
Extremely low Treasury rates have been a boon for the Federal Government's bottom line, but they haven't helped attract any global interest in US debt. Instead, nations around the world are cutting back on their Treasury positions, internalizing the financing of new debts and deficits. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 September, 2010
From Bloomberg.com we get the bad news that “Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation is likely to exceed the UK government’s upper 3% limit in coming months as higher sales taxes drive gains in consumer prices,” which “rose 3.1% in July from a year earlier after climbing 3.2% in June.” Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 31 August, 2010
The issue this week was the meeting of the Bank of Japan where they debated what to do about a Yen strong enough to damage Japanese exports, the mainstay of the Japanese economy. It was agreed that Japan will spend 920 billion yen [$10.8 billion] on economic stimulus and compile an extra budget if needed. Full Story
By: Chris Wood, Editor, Casey Research - 31 August, 2010
Here at Casey Research, we really don’t enjoy being a buzz-kill. It’s just that we think it’s more important for investors to be well informed about the reality in which we find ourselves today than it is to be happy-go-lucky all the time. Full Story
You will soon witness a transition of “lead man” in this crisis from Ben Bernanke to Mr. Tim Geithner, head of the US Treasury, for the gold revaluation stage. QE will be kept alive as a tool, as low rates are kept alive as a tool now, but gold revaluation will take the big stage. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Sean Peasgood - 31 August, 2010
Wellington West Analyst Sean Peasgood covers the geothermal, plasma gasification and "Smart Grid" subsectors of the alternative energy (AE) market. He believes there's room to make some dough in each of them but believes investors may need to be patient as these growing markets gain traction. Full Story
On August 27, I spoke with Bert concerning his forecast of the credit crisis, the likelihood of another financial crisis, the bond market “bubble” and the outlook for gold. His answers were as always refreshing and full of insight. Following is a transcript of that interview. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 31 August, 2010
Displayed below is a long-term weekly chart of the Barrons Gold Mining Index (BGMI) with a log scale. The chart includes the BGMI's 200-week moving average (in red) and two upward-sloping trend-lines (in green). We've given the trend-lines the same slope to show that the gold sector's current long-term bull market is progressing at roughly the same pace as the long-term bull market that ran from the early 1960s through to 1980. Full Story
We have more on Timberline Resources (TLR and V.TBR), the combination mine engineering/gold explorer whose Canada and USA-traded shares are gaining smartly. Idaho's Timberline has its footprint in Idaho, where it is based, in Montana, where its Butte Highlands gold mine is a year or so away from reality; and in Nevada. Timberline also is staked in Peru via an investment in Rae Wallace Mining. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 31 August, 2010
For years GATA banged on the door of the Financial Times, including a meeting in London with the newspaper's commodities reporter a year and a half ago, trying to get some attention for the international central bank gold price suppression scheme. The clamor went without result until this weekend, when the FT published a long story about gold by the paper's personal finance reporter, Ellen Kelleher, which was also in large part about GATA's work. Full Story
The various large-cap gold stock indices are readying for a major breakout. As we’ve noted, this isn’t just a breakout through 2008 highs but a breakout through highs dating back to 1980. Yes, there are some gold stock indices like the Barron’s Gold Mining Index and others, which show a 30-year base dating back to 1980. This will be a historic breakout for the gold stocks. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Roger Wiegand - 31 August, 2010
Listening to Trader Tracks Editor Roger Wiegand talk about market conditions and precious metals is like listening to your favorite uncle tell stories at Thanksgiving. The difference is that Roger's stories are a lot more likely to make you money. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Roger offers up some sage market advice. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 31 August, 2010
It was an interesting psychological phenomenon when I read where Michael Kosares of USAGold.com wrote, “Private citizen, Alan Greenspan, could afford to be blunt,” but I interpreted it in my Mysterious Mogambo Mind (MMM) to mean, “Private citizen, Alan Greenspan, should be afforded a blunt instrument applied with extreme prejudice to his stupid head, over and over, as he is the moron that... Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Robert Moore - 31 August, 2010
Many readers have pointed out that our long-running discussion of deflation has tended to overlook the impact of price increases, or at least price stability, on essential goods and services. In the essay below, Robert Moore, a frequent contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum, explains how both type of “flations” can co-exist. Full Story
What if you earned half of what you spent in a month and put the other half on your credit card? What if you did that month after month, year after year until your debt was six times your annual income? Would you consider yourself to be in deep financial trouble? Full Story
That should read widely anticipated Quantitative Easing (QE) is not enough to save the economy from a contraction in the larger credit cycle, however titles need to be catchy. And that’s basically what sparked the sell-off in stocks yesterday, reflected in a reversal of high yield bonds, which as you know we have been expecting to lead equities (hot money) lower. Full Story
One of the many tools available to economists and analysts in determining the suitability of fiscal or economic policy is partial equilibrium (PE) analysis. However, many scoff at the notion of using partial equilibrium simply because many of its assumptions are deemed to be too unrealistic. However, for taking a look at the potential benefits (or costs) of a policy such as a tax on a single good, PE is a very valid construct. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 30 August, 2010
Many analysts and investors try to guess when silver prices will explode. They make these guesses based on the charts, or even by the fundamentals like I do. I pointed out the fundamental supply and demand numbers in my last article, "1% of 1%". The Tiny Silver Market attracts 1% of 1%, or $1 out of every $10,000 in the US Banking system, each year. Full Story
My point is that we may experience a tough summer once again, but in a bull market most surprises are to the upside not the downside. As more and more former gold bugs abandon ship, and the sentiment gets very poor you can rest assured the bottom has arrived. Then the precious metals continue to ascend the wall of worry. Full Story
In the last update we were looking for gold to turn lower, it did turn lower and dropped quite heavily back to its 200-day moving average. However, it has risen all the way back up again and is now within striking distance of breaking out to new highs. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 30 August, 2010
The Congressional Budget Office thinks the country faces serious budget problems, as well as serious economic problems, because it estimates that the deficit for 2011 will be $1.066 trillion. In addition it sees fiscal 2010, which ends on September 30th, at $1.34 trillion, or 9% of GDP. Last year was 9.9%. Full Story
As the next leg down in the unfolding depression and global, financial crisis intensifies we all sit on a keg of dynamite known as the developed world’s economies and financial systems and wait for some fool in government to light a match. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 30 August, 2010
In the pre-crisis days, I used to write about things like P/E ratios, secular bull and bear markets, valuations, and all of the things we used to think about in the Old Normal. But what about those topics as we begin our trip through the New Normal? It's time to reconvene class and think through what might change and what will remain the same. Full Story
By: David Galland, Partner, Casey Research - 30 August, 2010
The latest data on global gold trends, Q2 2010, just popped into my email box from the World Gold Council. The bad news is that the higher nominal price of gold has caused a 5% decrease in jewelry sales over the prior year. If you’re thinking “Hey, that’s not that bad!”, you’d be right. Full Story
With gold rising almost each day now, those of you, who are holding the yellow metal as a long-term investment are most likely happy with this situation. However, Speculators, and particularly Contrarians are probably waiting for the slightest sign of weakness in order to profit in the following correction. As we all know, no market - virtually regardless of the fundamental situation - moves in a given direction in a straight line. Full Story
The better than expected GDP numbers threw a slight monkey wrench in the trading plan (for you traders out there). I was expecting a gap down open that would break through the 1040 pivot. The plan was to buy into that gap with a stop under the morning intraday low. The market did break slightly below 1040 (1039.70) so in theory if one was quick they could have jumped in right there. Full Story
There are many indicators available that provide information of stock and index movement which will go a long way towards helping you time the market and make you money (or, at least, cut your losses) during these difficult times. Full Story
By: Michael “Woody” O’brien ChFC - 30 August, 2010
In my favorite “enemy of the state” movie a point is well made that credibility is the ultimate currency. The truth about credibility is self-evident. However, credibility can be fraudulently built by the Rockefeller-Rothschild bankster owned media, and clever Madison Avenue PR. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 30 August, 2010
Fortunately for me, my throat is spared the violence of continual screaming when I remember that I can still buy gold, silver and oil, at bargain prices, and having thus remembered, am calmed to the point of serene happiness, as evidenced by my saying, “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!” Full Story
US stocks rallied on Friday thanks to weasel words from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke after a dismal week with a dip below 10,000 on the Dow. The S&P 500 ended lower for the third week in a row. Tuesday saw the third Hindenburg Omen, the classic chart signal of an impending crash based on a complex analysis of trading movements. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Mario Cavolo - 30 August, 2010
This morning we proffer the always-sunny thoughts of Mario Cavolo, an expatriate who lives in China. His very bullish outlook for the global economy contrasts with some of the gloomier think-pieces that have appeared in this space. Full Story
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