With the end of July I thought it was important to take a look at the monthly charts which carry more significance than weekly and daily charts. Visible trends on the monthly charts obviously carry greater weight than those on the weekly and daily charts. Monthly charts can also simplify and clarify sector relationships. While the broader trend for precious metals is lower, there are some slight differences as evidenced by the monthly charts. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Samuel Pelaez, CIO and Portfolio Manager at Galileo Global Equity Advisors, a Canadian subsidiary of U.S. Global Investors. Sam manages Galileo's Growth and Income fund as well as the Technology and Blockchain fund and also follows the natural resource and gold mining space quite closely. And it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a psychologically-grating year so far. They’ve remained trapped in their vexing low-consolidation trading range, disheartening and driving away the great majority of traders. But that should soon change as this deeply-out-of-favor sector enters its strong season, which begins with a powerful autumn rally starting late summers. This year’s has exceptional upside potential from such a low base. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years, outlines his technical perspective on the global financial markets. Regarding the gold market, our guest views $1,200 gold as solid support, which must hold if the bull trend is return with gusto. Arch Crawford maintains that every investment portfolio should include a gold / silver safety net to guard against lost purchasing power and financial crises. Full Story
When you think of the top 1 percent of all income earners in American households, how much do you think this group rakes in? Millions? Tens of millions? What about the top 10 percent? On the contrary, to be considered in the top 1 percent of taxpayers nationally, you’d need an annual income of $480,930. The top 10 percent of taxpayers make at least $138,031. These figures are based on 2015 income tax data, the most recent year available. Full Story
In a normal business cycle, the economy expands for a while and businesses hire lots of new people at somewhat higher wages, generating enough tax revenue to shrink the government’s budget deficit – and in rare cases produce a surplus. So, for a while, the government borrows less money. Full Story
From this point forward it becomes all about what is happening in trade wars and with the Fed’s Recovery Rewind, inflation in the face of tariffs, rising bond rates (which compete against stocks) and what is happening in the general economy. Those appear to be major headwinds to the generals who have already largely buckled to their knees. Full Story
From Cape May to Cooperstown, we’ve been shepherding our boys of summer as they play through the sunset season of their final little league adventure. Following Labor Day, we’ll get back to our more comprehensive and consistent market commentaries. Until then, here’s a few broad-brush portraits of what we’ve been following. Full Story
Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles, returns with technical insights on the financial markets. His cycles work agrees with that of Arch Crawford, a significant stock market peak may be in place. Rydex Bearish Funds indicate investors are the least bearish in twenty years, suggesting the herd is extremely ebullient, flashing an overbought signal. Full Story
The Commitment of Traders reports for COMEX gold and silver are back to levels that often precede price bottoms. Could they also be telling us something about the current yuan-gold correlation? As background for this article, please be sure to review these two posts from last month: Has the PBOC taken control of the Gold Market and Potential Impacts of Yuan-Gold Peg where we first laid out the details of the current yuan-gold correlation and then projected what it might foreshadow. Full Story
Consumer price inflation is real. It sneaks into every facet of life. Bags of coffee shrink from 16 ounces to 12 ounces and then to 10 ounces. “Shrinkflation” is policy. That Snickers candy bar is smaller but costs the same or more. But don’t blame the candy industry, coffee distributors or automobile manufacturers. Fiat currencies create the problems. Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
So, as you can see, based upon our analysis which has kept us on the correct side of this market for many years, we still believe that this bull market has further to run. However, we are expecting a sizeable correction to begin in 2019 before that last leg of this bull market which began at the 2009 lows takes hold. And, after this last leg into the mid-2020’s completes, then we will likely begin a 10-20 year bear market which can take the DOW back towards the 10,000 region. Full Story
Probably the two best known gold mining stock indexes in the world’s financial markets are the HUI and the XAU. HUI is the ticker symbol for the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index. XAU is the ticker symbol for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index. Both of these monikers make an appearance on many gold related websites and many general financial market websites as well, so its worth knowing briefly what these indexes are and what they represent. Full Story
Just a quick update on GLD which has broken down from a 2 1/2 year triangle consolidation pattern. If we get a backtest to the bottom rail around the 119 area I will take a position in DGLD which is a 3 X short gold etf. Full Story
While glowing presidential proclamations about US GDP growth last week did nothing to prevent the stock market from rushing headlong over the cusps of a FAANG stock ledge, the market is taking a breather today. So, let’s take a breather and go back and look at why that GDP report had no bite. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short-term is on sell signals. The cycle is down. From a contrarian point of view, the current extreme bearish sentiment is an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Perhaps most satisfying for believers in free markets and limited and transparent government, Mooney now asks the Treasury and Fed to come clean about everything. He writes: "What markets, if any, are the Federal Reserve and Treasury trading in, and through what mechanisms? If the Federal Reserve and Treasury are engaged in trading, what is the objective?" Full Story
If the current gold price sale ends in the $1200 - $1180 area it would give the right side of the huge inverse head and shoulders pattern almost perfect symmetry with the left side. The personnel changes in India’s finance ministry and the rise of inflation in America (as the stock market peaks) are fundamentally in tune with the big picture technical action for gold. A joyous bull era is poised to begin, with good times for all gold investors! Full Story
A member of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee is calling out the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury for dodging questions about their activities involving America’s gold reserves. Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun. Full Story
Even though the gold price increased in 2018, the top gold miners production declined while costs continue to escalate. Output at three of the top gold miners in the world fell in the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year. With rising costs due to higher energy prices, on top of decreasing production, the top gold miners free cash flow declined precipitously in 2018. Full Story
The price of bitcoin surged above $8,000 last Tuesday for the first time since May after the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Argentina concluded with little urgency to take regulatory action on cryptocurrencies. In a communiqué, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors expressed confidence that the technology underlying alt-coins “can deliver significant benefits to the financial system and the broader economy.” Full Story
Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates sees the best corporate earnings in decades, a 24% increase in the 1st Qtr. Gold and related shares deserve a place in every investment portfolio according to our guest, as the ideal panacea against government profligacy. Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors outlines the latest financial market activity from his scenic mountain office overlooking the bay in Vancouver. The central importance of the national yield curve for every North American as well as our International listener's is the crux of today's episode. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 3.41 percent on tensions residing over tariffs on automobiles. Gold traders turned bullish this week, as prices rose from their lowest in a year, after being the most bearish since December in last week’s survey. Bullion rebounded from a loss after U.S. GDP data was released showing growth at the fastest pace since 2014, which actually missed estimates. Full Story
Milton Friedman was a giant of American economics. He was one of the leaders of what became known as the Chicago School of Economics. His ideas and theories permeated government policies, especially from about 1980 onwards. His monetary theories influenced even the Federal Reserve’s response to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. Full Story
The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond is up by about 100 basis points from its 2018 low. Meanwhile, its government continues to borrow money and roll over its existing debt. But now it has to do so at ever-higher interest rates, which means it has to pay more interest, which means its deficits are rising, forcing it to borrow even more money, and so on until this “interest rate death spiral” becomes fatal. Full Story
The broader point: Whatever our current circumstances, we can all do things to prepare for the radically different world I think will unfold in these years. You need to make the most of what you have. I want to help by meeting you where you are. Fortunately, I have multiple ways to do that, as you’ll see below. Stick with me and we’ll get through this together. Full Story
Just ten days ago, your Lone Ranger here laid out why one should see the barely beginning downturn of the housing market in Seattle as the bellwether for a national housing market bust. Naturally a snowflake or two of criticism landed on my nose to say I knew nothing about real estate. That being the case, look at how the world has changed in so little time to catch up with me. An idea that you may have read here first is now mainstream news in every housing fact being reported across the nation and around the world. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Ed Steer of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest. Ed has covered the precious metals markets for going on two decades now, having written for Casey Research prior to his latest project, and is also a director at GATA, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, where he and his colleagues work to expose the manipulation in the gold and silver markets. Full Story
This parable, known of by most, yet followed by too few – who tend to achieve success in their endeavors – has its origins in many cultures going back several centuries. The primary idea is that a minor overlooked detail – or several – can lead to unanticipated, sometimes tragic outcomes. Variations on this theme have been referred to as “The Camel’s nose” (under the tent), “A stitch in time saves nine”, and “A little neglect may breed mischief.” Full Story
Unless one considers entrepreneurial innovation to be just a type of “technology”, this formulation is missing something even on its own stated terms. But more broadly, it does not address the problem of interest rates. If companies can borrow at 2%, then there will be scant business opportunities that generate more than about 3%. The marginal productivity of the entrepreneur is brought down by the falling interest rate. The same “inputs” of labor, resources, and technology will yield different results at different interest rates. Full Story
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