By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 3 August, 2007
-Losing nourishment from the subprime pinch…what will become of the poor lumpenhouseholders… -Wishing the pipeline had frozen sooner…waiting out the soft patch… -The end of the great dollar standard grows nigh…Hugo Chavez and Sean Penn: Best friends forever…other applications for the Fed's substitution effect…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 3 August, 2007
Rather than trading in tandem with other assets (as they recently have), gold and gold stocks will diverge, registering their largest gains on days when general stock prices fall. Currently, liquidity is driving all markets simultaneously. However, when those seeking liquidity realize that gold is its ultimate form, they will embrace it and shun paper alternatives. When that happens, gold stocks should shine even brighter than the metal itself. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 3 August, 2007
As the move to keeping what nations have already Protectionism is in full swing. This will inevitably disturb the currency world, who quite rightly will look to something that will protect them from the rising volatility in the currency markets alongside seeping confidence from the U.S $. This ‘something’ will include gold and gold investments. Both Protectionism and Capital Controls will enter the scene as this happens as testified to by history. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 3 August, 2007
Uranium and uranium stocks have been best of breed among the commodities and commodities stocks of late. And the contrarian crowd that got an early jump on the stocks of the companies that are exploring for, developing and producing this mineral have enjoyed incredible gains. In the last couple years any stock that has anything to do with uranium has just soared. Full Story
Deepcaster’s regular readers know that Deepcaster is bullish for the long-term on both Crude Oil and Gold. But is bullishness on both Gold and Crude justifiable in the short term? Full Story
Financial analysts and news reporters often refer to the concept of "liquidity," as though it were a magic wand. One touch and all ills are cured. Until recently, it was often heard that "the world is awash in liquidity," which was considered a good thing. More recently, the en vogue observation is that "global liquidity is drying up," which is spoken in ominous tones. Full Story
But still, we can't help wondering: Do Russian companies – most especially the gas, oil and mining companies who make up 80% of the Russian stock market – actually need to raise cash by listing on Western exchanges? Full Story
While the likelihood of the US ranking in size of economy is unlikely to be usurped at any point in the near future, the status of the U.S. Dollar as the premier reserve currency is seriously threatened. And that could have serious consequences for America’s lead position in terms of economic buying power Full Story
Did you hear that sound last week? That was the collective sound of millions of retail traders and investors screaming in fear and running, not walking, to the nearest bomb shelter as the stock market put in its internal low. Once again the ever-growing fear of the Main Street masses has led to capitulation at what looks to be another important stock market bottom in the making. Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 2 August, 2007
-What a deflating bubble looks like…the worst is still to come…the certainty of denial… -A paper trophy for Rupert Murdoch…the endangered family business…oil, oil, all around, let's all have a drink… -The Silver Road…deep thoughts from Larry the Cable Guy…look out Santa - the Russians are coming…and more! Full Story
By: Jason Hommel and Maurice Rosen - 2 August, 2007
LAST YEAR I INTERVIEWED JAMES TURK who talked about $8,000 gold. Now, I present you with a bizarre forecast of $8,000 silver. What's going on here? We'll have to read Jason Hommel's reasoning to find out, but I'll tell you upfront he's from the School of Hyperinflation Forecasting, not an especially enviable place to have learned how to manage one's money or to forecast the economy since the 1980s. Full Story
By: Doug Casey, Casey Research LLC - 2 August, 2007
If you are going to be successful as an investor in this phase of the market, you are going to have to suppress your fight-or-flight response and take the time to identify those companies with the goods: adequate financing, great management, realistic market capitalization, and solid properties in the right locations. Full Story
A quick review of signals surely can be both encouraging and confusing. They point to higher physical prices, calmer stock prices, and a continued housing crisis & mortgage debacle. The big banks and Wall Street broker dealers are breaking down very badly. The USDollar bounce is already running out of steam, hampered by a restored expected interest rate cut. Remember: whatever is vigorously and repeatedly denied is almost surely to occur!!! Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 2 August, 2007
With the 'substitution effect' in play, we can then assume that the Fed will say that all consumers would try to escape higher prices in other foodstuffs by switching to breakfast cereals (which still cost the same in 'dollars per box'), which in turn would be substituted by cocaine (which went down in price), driving overall inflation in food to less than zero! Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 1 August, 2007
-Sometimes stocks go up, sometimes they go down - and sometimes they go away…advice from moral philosophers and kibitzers… -Stealing money openly and honestly…getting what you deserve, and deserving what you get… -Don't worry dear reader, your fearless leader isn't going anywhere…Ron Paul on the idea of liberty…and more! Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 1 August, 2007
Will a panic ensue? How much more can the Japanese public take on their yen shorts? Will the Yen Death-Star detonate? Are the large specs ready for another hit? Will there now be more carry trade carnage to add to the carnage being wreaked by the subprime debacle on hedge funds? Stay tuned for an economic disaster coming to a theatre near you. Remember, disasters always eventually benefit gold. Full Story
The spreading subprime contagion has revealed a serious problem: many of the illiquid assets held on hedge funds' books have not been properly "marked to market." Asset values reported to investors are stale, overly optimistic, and not reflective of deteriorating market conditions. Full Story
WE WIN! This week's chart is of ten year returns on $Gold(7.4% compounded annually) and U.S. paper equities(6.1% total return compounded annually). As the chart shows, the place to have had your money for past ten years has been Gold. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 1 August, 2007
There are two driving seasons in America just now and they both involve oil. We are currently in the midst of the traditional driving season where Americans take to their vehicles for two weeks or more to get away from the stresses and strains of life. The second season is not so familiar but comes around now and again. It has been speeding along the interstate for 5 years now and it is the dollar-driving season. However, during this season, the driving is all downhill. Full Story
The possibility of a sell off in gold and silver caused by the deterioration in the market structure, as indicated in last week’s article, was quickly realized. In a three-day period, gold sold off $30 and silver declined almost 90 cents from the recent price peaks. As usual, the explanation for the sell off was found in the Commitment of Traders Report (COT). Full Story
By: Short Fuse & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 31 July, 2007
-The long run weighing machine prevails…Mr. John Devaney is an idiot… -Double or nothing says you'll get wiped out…hedge fund managers will never leave base camp… -Something is different in The Daily Reckoning…raising the debt ceiling - again?…crude hit a new one-year high…and more! Full Story
This essay makes comparisons between the money supply of 26 selected economic areas and discusses the ratios between the value of official gold reserves to outstanding currency. Full Story
The opportunities in Canadian junior mining shares has never been better. And now is the time to get in before prices skyrocket higher in my opinion. As mentioned the other day in pointing out the precious metals sector is turning higher, when the Canadian $ heads over parity against the Greenback, American investors will be looking for a home for excess cash they wish to hold in Loonies. Full Story
The ongoing crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage defaults continues to spiral into new directions, making it difficult for even experienced market watchers to comprehend the complete picture and its implication for the financial markets. Therefore this article attempts to explain the crisis and what it implies for future interest rate trends. Full Story
So, this is what it looks like when you go over the cliff. Danger, professionals at work, do not try this on your own. With a future’s volume of over 253,000 on Thursday (the highest daily volume in my 20 years of data), these must be the “professionals” all following the leader like lemmings. Full Story
By: The Mogambo Guru & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 30 July, 2007
-Anyone can turn a dream into a nightmare…Zim dollars up the wazoo… -Starting in the valley of the stock market…a shift from subprime to prime… -Nothing left to do but implode…having everyone home - sort of…were you wondering whatever came of the gypsy wagon?…and more! Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 30 July, 2007
Our little friend is just racing to prove itself. And prove itself it will and in a very big way. This little friend of ours is a powerful little friend. This little friend eventually is heading much, much higher. Which means our gold stock profits are going to climb and make many wealthy. Full Story
We do appear to have had a significant breakout in the precious metals. Attending a family wedding in Kauai and bumming about the Islands during this period further supports my beach theory. Of course the break out was hammered upon our return. Ignoring the storm for the moment, I find the mere fact that the initial break out took place against the seasonals intriguing, and this has fulfilled my intermediate expectations. Full Story
Jim Willie, Hat Trick Letter. Justice Litle, Concilient Investor. Mr. Ho calls in with a thought provoking question for Bob and Chris. 3 Spotlight Picks with big dividends! Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 29 July, 2007
At the heart of the global monetary system lies the use of the U.S.$ as the currency used to pay for the globe’s oil. Any change in that role has a disproportionate impact on the importance of the $ as well as its value relative to the globe’s other currencies. If the oil producing nations of the world decided to use other currencies for oil payments then the global monetary system itself is undermined, making gold more attractive and long-term a safer place to hold one’s savings Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 29 July, 2007
Our short- and intermediate-term bond market views have recently become more optimistic because a number of factors should lend support to bond prices over the remainder of this year. In particular, the mortgage-related debt crisis in the US will probably get worse before it gets better, leading to additional demand for zero-risk Treasury debt at the expense of lower-quality/higher-risk debt. Full Story
With the real estate market having a surplus in some of the major boom areas, and aboveground silver supplies dwindling dangerously low, having lost approximately 1.5 billion ounces of the 2-billion-ounce inventory since 1980, don’t you think chance favors taking profits on some of the more marginal real estate holdings and moving some of your assets into the precious metals sector? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 29 July, 2007
You just got a small taste of what a carry trade unwinding can do to financial markets this week. The Dow lost 678 points this week alone as the yen strengthened from 121.31 yen per dollar to 118.56 yen per dollar and from 167.614 yen per euro to 161.799. That is almost 3 yen per dollar and very nearly a mind-blowing 6 yen per euro in one week. They did this to hit gold. Stocks suffered as well and the market would have collapsed into a total free-fall without the intervention of the PPT. Gold held up fairly well, considering the massive liquidity drain. Full Story
We were in the money last week and promptly moved stops to breakeven to reduce risk to zero. This week’s sharp sell off stopped us out flat. We are now in cash and wait for new signals and set ups. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 29 July, 2007
As predicted in this letter early this year, the credit markets have finally begun to tighten, as a major re-pricing of risk is underway as a direct result of the subprime markets. The subprime virus seems to be spreading, despite the view a few weeks ago that there would be no "contagion" in the rest of the credit markets. This week we look at the re-pricing of debt and take a rather positive view and explain how a bottom in the credit market is reached. As ugly as it looks on Friday afternoon, it's not all that bad yet. Full Story
If a plummeting stock market is going to be rescued from free-fall by short-covering, it had better happen soon. Just look at the graph below. The Dow Industrials settled Friday on the low tick of the day, and it would take only another 56 more points of selling to create a menacing impulse leg on the daily chart. Full Story
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