Very large net short positions held by traders the CFTC classes as “commercial” in COMEX futures for gold have, in the past, often marked at least an interim top. We have recently seen attention drawn to the commercial net short position by respected market watchers, such as James Turk of GoldMoney fame, John Hathaway, of Tocqueville Asset Management, among many others. Full Story
There is a general air of desperation in the gold community these days with the price stubbornly refusing to rise in the expected trajectory. People seem close to throwing in the towel on precious metals. Reports from Germany for instance, suggest that people there have been selling their investment gold. This wouldn’t have been predicted a couple of years ago so I thought therefore, it would be a good time to revisit the basic ideas which drive me to be a gold, and especially silver, bug and see what has changed. Firstly let me say that I have never recommended buying precious metals as an investment but as insurance against monetary collapse. This has not happened as yet, so does that mean it won’t happen in the near future? Full Story
It is common knowledge that Japan is in extreme financial difficulties, and that the currency is most likely to sink and sink. After all, Government debt to GDP is over 250%, and the rate of increase of retirees has exceeded the birth rate for some time. A combination of population demographics, escalating welfare costs, high government debt and the government’s inability in finding a solution to Japan’s ongoing crisis ensures for international speculators that going short of the yen is a no-brainer. Full Story
Price discovery in all commodities is an electronic paper affair. While the macro-economy and the geopolitical provide a distant framework, they do not wield significant direct influence. The "discovery issue" occurs across the board, but is nowhere more evident than in the precious metals futures markets and, most notably, silver. A look under the hood at the most recent rally confirms that we are nowhere close to the point of return to equilibrium price. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 3 July, 2014
As the MSM, Wall Street and various so-called analysts waste time focusing on worthless and insignificant data, the price of silver is positioning itself for the coming TWO-STAGE RALLY. The majority of the precious metals analysts discuss the revaluation of silver as it pertains to the amount of fiat currency in the system. Full Story
The most amusing question asked of the Jackass by clients and other people is when the system is going to break down. My usual answer is 2008, which causes a strange reaction, since a past date. Then they are given a tactful tongue lashing that they have failed to notice, detect, or discern properly the failed system in front of their noses. Further quizzical looks and pleas for explanation bring a torrent of headline facts. Seeing events through a different lens of statistical reality with almost no gullible or naive tendencies, the intrepid analyst relates the tipping point was the Lehman kill in Sept 2008, following the subprime mortgage collapse. Full Story
Will gold regain its monetary standing and will it again back a major currency as in previous centuries? Readers on www.deviantinvestor.com responded to my question about the creation of a gold backed currency by July 2017. The voting shows about 78% believe that within 3 years there will be a gold backed currency – perhaps issued by China, Russia, or even the United States. This is sensible because readers on the DI site are generally pro-gold and suspicious of unbacked debt based paper currencies. Full Story
By: Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor, The Casey Report - 3 July, 2014
It’s an investing strategy so simple, you’ll wonder why you didn’t think of it. Like any other market, the stock market obeys the laws of supply and demand. Reduce supply, and prices should rise. Therefore, companies that reduce their outstanding shares by buying back their own stock should outperform the market. That’s the basic theory that Charles Biderman, who was recently featured in Forbes and is chairman and founder of TrimTabs Investment Research, follows to manage his ETF, TrimTabs Float Shrink (TTFS). Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 3 July, 2014
The Timmins gold district is by far the most productive within Canada’s prolific Abitibi greenstone belt. It has produced in the neighborhood of 70m ounces of gold, and operations are still going strong. Namesake mining company Timmins Gold is forecasting 2014 output of 120k ounces, making it one of North America’s top junior gold producers. But provocatively not one of Timmins’ ounces is coming from within the Timmins district. Full Story
The breathtaking rush into the perceived safety and stability of the Bomb er Bond markets which began at the depths of the 2008 Global financial crisis are in blow off mode. A recent Bank of international settlements annual report has been ignored due to its message of CAUTION. The main stream media routinely blacks out these messages and have done so this time. Frenzied reach for yields are occurring throughout the world. Full Story
Long-time readers know I love to include literary references to demonstrate key points; and none more so than the “aha moment” in my favorite movie of all time, V for Vendetta. That is when Inspector Finch, who can’t seem to pinpoint exactly what’s wrong with England realizes how the spreading social cancer started, where it currently stood and where it was headed. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Edward Karr - 2 July, 2014
From his vantage in Geneva, Edward Karr, the founder of the investment firm RAMPartners SA, tells The Gold Report why European bankers are destined to inflate their way out of structural crisis and why that is good news for the price of gold. Karr believes gold has bottomed and should explode upward. Full Story
Many investors are uncertain whether we are in a commodity bull or bear market. Without a doubt, there are a lot of conflicting fundamentals regarding shortages and surpluses in soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee or wheat and corn. Then there are the metals such as copper, which had record high warehouse inventories only to see them draw down rapidly in a matter of months, likewise with aluminum and zinc. The only commodity that has remained positively stable for the last 5 years is crude oil. Full Story
While the U.S. indices have been mostly upbeat, most of the action has been in Europe. Stocks across several European exchanges were hard hit last week as investors overseas panicked over a slate of negative news – the same news, ironically, that investors in the U.S. blithely ignored. Adding to the dramatic reversal in sentiment, the European Commission reported on Friday an unexpected drop in household and business economic confidence. Economists are also concerned about the threat of deflation since the euro zone inflation rate remains stubbornly below 1%. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 2 July, 2014
Ian Fleming's James Bond novel "Goldfinger," about a plot to eliminate the U.S. gold reserve, soon may have to be reclassified as non-fiction, Singapore fund manager Grant Williams argues in a fascinating 23-minute video outlining the massive transfer of gold from West to East amid an environment of price suppression by the West's fractional-reserve gold banking system. Williams' video fully adopts GATA's view of the gold issue and quotes gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 2 July, 2014
MineWeb's Shivom Seth reports from Mumbai that India's government may be starting to figure out a solution to what it supposes to be the country's gold problem -- that is, to recognize gold as money again. The idea, so far, would be to allow gold held by banks to count toward cash and liquidity reserve requirements. Full Story
It’s only one man talking, making projections about the future of technology and not coincidentally the future of the human race. Yet many of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions have hit the mark. In 2009, he analyzed 108 of them and found 89 entirely correct and another 13 “essentially” correct. “Another 3 are partially correct, 2 look like they are about 10 years off, and 1, which was tongue in cheek anyway, was just wrong,” he added. If he can maintain this rate of success, many of his other predictions will happen within the lifetime of most people alive today. And almost no one is prepared for them. Full Story
Juniors can't fund their projects, which means that the majors' reserves will continue to shrink. Rick Mills argues that this process can have but one result: higher metals prices across the board. In this interview with The Mining Report, the owner and host of Ahead of the Herd.com shares his outlook on precious metals. Full Story
In response to popular demand, I’m going to start tracking silver more closely. “There is a lot of talk on the Internet about silver going up a lot around mid-July,” a chat-room denizen averred on Tuesday. Although I’m not one to be influenced by blogger buzz, if Silver is in fact developing thrust for a moon shot, the evidence should soon become apparent on the intraday charts. Most immediately, that would imply a pop through the p=21.325 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown (see inset). That would open a path to at least 22.070 , its D-target sibling. Gold stalled on a spike Monday at an analogous p, but the fact that it didn’t get past it means silver and gold futures are on roughly equal footing at the moment on the bull/bear scale. Full Story
The Fed has long believed that money printing or credit creation equals growth. In an effort to prove this (and to prop up the insolvent big banks), the Fed has embarked on QE 1, QE 2, QE 3, QE 4, Operation Twist 1 and 2, and kept interest rates at zero for over five years. All told, the Fed has spent nearly $4 trillion. To put this number into perspective, it comes down to a little over $12,000 for every man woman and child in the US. The end result has been the single weakest recovery in over 80 years. Adjusted for real inflation, we’ve essentially flat-lined. Full Story
Has gold topped out, or is it beginning a new leg higher? A persuasive argument can be made that gold staged an upside breakout last night. The range of $1305 - $1326 was decisively penetrated to the upside, and gold traded as high as $1335. In 2013, I asked my subscribers, who I refer to as “golden marines”, to focus their buying in the $1228 area, with an emphasis on gold stock. Gold is now about $100 above that key buying area. Full Story
If you’re a typical small-time investor, chances are you prefer to let a team of analysts fuss about such irksome things as correlation and beta. Maybe you’ve bought a stock because your brother-in-law gave you a hot tip, maybe you heard something about it on a financial news show, or maybe you just loved the company’s product. Full Story
Governments, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan, spend their paper currencies as if tomorrow will never come. They act as if they believe debts can increase forever, more money will always be available, and debts can be rolled over forever. A recent US vice-president even stated that “deficits don’t matter.” Such economic sins may help the financial elite but they ultimately hurt most people and most economies. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 1 July, 2014
A market analyst for ScotiaMcLeod in Toronto, Jaime Carrasco, injected gold market manipulation into his interview on the "Market Call Tonight" program Friday on Business News Network in Canada. "I think everybody now talks about gold particularly as being manipulated," Carrasco told BNN anchor Michael Hainsworth, who was uncomfortable with the subject but couldn't get Carrasco to stop talking about it. Carrasco explained his enthusiasm for gold as a matter of the vast oversubscription of the gold supply through paper claims at a ratio approaching 100 to 1 and the steady flow of Western gold to China through Switzerland. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambu Guru - 1 July, 2014
Another horrible Father’s Day is now receding into the foggy haze of my failing memory, although the sting of shame still burns hot as ever. I mean, it is one thing for my loving children to give me a coffee mug that says “World’s Worst Father” on it, for the fifteenth tiresome Father’s Day in a row, but it was cracked, too! They put tape over the crack! Useless from every angle! Full Story
Gold spiked to $1,332 an ounce, its highest level in many months, as a cease fire in the Ukraine came to an end yesterday without any progress in resolving the breakaway and insurrection in the eastern states. The recently elected pro-Western president Petro Poroshenko vowed to remove the rebels by force. Sporadic fighting has continued during the cease fire that his military warned was being used by the enemy to regroup. Full Story
The 1334.90 rally target sent out Sunday night very precisely contained yesterday’s bullish feint, although the pivot worked in way that could be described as ‘theatrical’ (see chart). From a technical standpoint and strictly speaking, we have no way of knowing for certain that the pivot will be brushed aside, or whether instead it will mark the highest high in gold futures for the next ten years. My strong hunch, however, is that the August contract will punch through it shortly, and when it does, the next logical target would be 1364.30 exactly. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 30 June, 2014
GATA's friend and consultant R.M. calls attention to some documents demonstrating that the Bank of England's involvement with the gold market may be even more intimate than generally understood. In a presentation to the London Bullion Market Association's Fifth Annual Assaying and Refining Seminar, held in March 2013, a Bank of England customer relationship manager, Luke Thorn, disclosed that the bank participates on three LBMA committees. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips and Dan Popescu - 30 June, 2014
Does China control the gold price? What role does Russia play in the gold market? What role if any does Saudi Arabia and Iraq play? What is gold's relationship with oil and the US dollar? Will India lift restriction on gold soon? Will there be a run on the dollar and a stampede by central banks to buy gold? Where to store gold? Switzerland or Singapore. Should anything replace the London "Gold and Silver Fix"? The big reset, gold and SDR. Full Story
By: Geoff Rutherford and John Williams - 30 June, 2014
Hello and welcome to this week’s Ask the Expert here on Smart Money News. I’m your host Geoff Rutherford and on the line with me today we have Mr. John Williams. John Williams is an economic consultant with over 30 years’ worth of experience in private consulting and government economic reporting. His website, ShadowStats.com, is an electronic newsletter service dedicated to exposing and analyzing flaws in current U.S. government economic data and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial, market and political hype. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Greg McCoach - 30 June, 2014
There may be blood in the streets, but in today's market, the tribulations of junior miners could represent a boon for investors. With gold prices testing and retesting the bottom, and despite his dour outlook on the future of global economics, newsletter publisher Greg McCoach tells The Gold Report that to survive the endgame, investors should both hold gold and seek out stock in explorers with solid prospects. Full Story
The minimum wage should be the easiest issue to understand for the economically savvy. If the government arbitrarily sets a floor for wages above that set by the market, jobs will be lost. Even the Congressional Budget Office admits that 500,000 jobs would be lost with a $10.10 federal minimum wage. Who knows how high the real number would be? Full Story
Here we are with yet another options expiry approaching this Friday and sentiment wise, nothing has changed for years. As far as speculators / hedgers are concerned, stocks are toppy, and precious metals are going to the moon – sort of. That is to say, according to the most recent readings of key US index open interest put / call ratios and short interest, with updated charts here and here respectively, with some minor exceptions, not much has changed in this regard, where market participants are still generally bearish on US stocks, and bullish on precious metals, which is why prices travel in the opposite directions of these sentiments. Full Story
Traders the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classes as Managed Money were so sure the downtrend for gold has ended that they collectively covered or offset with new long trades a record high number of their short bets in one commitment of traders (COT) reporting week. In the process Managed Money traders also reported a new one-week record increase in their net long positioning for gold futures. We conclude that Managed Money traders are positioning for higher gold prices in an aggressive way. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I’d like to show you some charts on the different US stock markets and some so the stronger sectors within the US markets. It seems like no one believes this rally taking place in the US stock markets and many stock markets abroad. The mantra is we have to have a correction because markets can’t keep going up like this , which is true , but the stock markets will let us know when it’s time for a correction. Right now most of the charts are looking positive with no sign of a top in place yet. This could all change next week but right now things are looking much more bullish than bearish. Full Story
The suspicion grows that the stock market has been carving out a broad top, by turns bringing sufficient deviousness, pain, tedium, exhilaration, temptation, and most of all false hopes, to the process that even those who have been preparing for it are likely to be caught off guard when the inevitable plunge comes. Further evidence of a market suffering from terminal fatigue would have been apparent to anyone who tried to cash in on the last gasp of put and call options that were due to expire on Friday. Full Story
Veteran quantitative investor, Charles Nenner of Charles Nenner Research Center uses the skills he honed as a proprietary trader at Goldman Sachs to search for cyclical patterns within market data. His cycles work indicates that a bottom is likely in place for the precious metals sector. His sophisticated neural network models remove human emotion from trading systems, enhancing returns. Wall Street Wizard, Peter Grandich says the stock and bond market rallies are overextended. Geopolitical concerns in Iraq, a nation that houses 12 US military bases, could catapult crude oil prices, sending inflation shock waves across the globe. The Fed has been forced to shoulder most of the economic burden since the credit crisis, a responsibility that was traditionally shared by Congress via fiscal measures. Full Story
The latest COTs are indicating another false start for the Precious Metals sector. There was a very big jump in Commercial short positions in gold last week, but an astounding jump in Commercial short positions in silver, that is believed to be unprecedented. With both already at a high level as a result, it looks like we are in for a rerun of what happened after mid-March. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 June, 2014
Something unprecedented is scheduled to happen at the New Orleans Investment Conference in October: a former central banker -- the most famous in the world, Alan Greenspan -- has agreed not just to speak but to take questions from the audience about gold. Of course there's no guarantee that Greenspan's answers will be truthful and candid. But even his evasions or refusals to answer candidly may disclose a lot. Full Story
A rather interesting shockwave came across the newsfeeds this week. I was actually doing a TV interview when the host announced that GDP was down 2.9% for the first quarter. There was not much else I could do but note that that was a really bad, ugly, terrible, not very good number. But I had no real basis, without any facts in front of me, by which to understand why the revision was so extreme. Sure, we were all expecting a pretty large revision, but what we got was the worst decline in five years and the largest downward revision since recordkeeping began. Later, a quick perusal of the data on the BLS website revealed the culprits: exports and healthcare spending. Full Story
A relatively quiet week for markets and many leading stocks as we are still a bit mixed overall while some great bases continue to complete. There are several very nice looking cup and handle patterns out there whom are nearly complete and ready to move higher. Cup and handles are about as powerful a pattern as there is which means we are on track for a super July breakout in select leading stocks. Full Story
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