With the US stock markets surging nearly a third higher in just 6 months, the odds are rising for a major topping. As the best times to sell high, recognizing these events in real-time is very important for traders. But it is a big challenge due to the gradual way toppings unfold. An indicator that can really help is the famous implied-volatility fear gauges. They tend to exhibit unique and identifiable behaviors at toppings. Full Story
If history has taught one certain lesson, it is that the less fettered an economy, the better humankind is able to do what it does best: run from trouble and run toward opportunity. In this way mistakes are quickly resolved and progress assured. Full Story
One of the questions that we receive on a regular basis is whether one should invest in junior or senior mining stocks. The answer is that diversification is the way to go, but that’s not the full reply as weights in the diversified portfolio can still favor either juniors or senior stocks. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals - 4 May, 2012
According to the European Central Bank, the Italian banking industry now holds more government debt than the banks of any of the major European economies: nearly €324 billions worth of shaky bonds. The Spanish banking sector is also heavily overweight in government paper, at a new record high of €263 billion. Full Story
Is the Silver Bull Market Over? This is one question that we feel very confident that the answer to it is no; but still we are specifically watching for articles or news stories suggesting that the precious metals bull market is over. We have seen a few articles announcing the end of the metals bull market and we will explain why this is significant to us later in this article. But first, there are a host of reasons why we think the bull market in precious metals is alive and well and we will address a few of these reasons in this article. Full Story
Crikey! Although we declaimed here the other day that gold appeared to be carving out an important bottom, getting airborne could be bumpy. One reason we “feel” a bottom is near is that it has been relatively difficult to stay long in gold. Getting aboard has been no problem, of course, since traders can attempt it at any time, albeit not always with confident expectations of success. And so it was early Thursday morning, when we put out a “buy’ recommendation in Comex June Gold in the dead of night, shortly before 5 a.m. Eastern. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 3 May, 2012
During the past couple of years, we have written about the debt situation facing both Europe and the United States. The economic data coming out of Europe has rapidly deteriorated yet the US economy has been resilient. This scenario has caused investors to believe that the US can decouple from the troubles in Europe. Full Story
On March 20, 2012 Ben Bernanke lectured students at George Washington University on the value of central banking and the "volatile" system it replaced, the classical gold standard. Here is my video response to some of his claims about gold. Full Story
We suspect that many precious metals investors are saying, “We don’t want to play anymore!” and our reply is, “You want to quit right now, right at the bottom of this cycle? You must be crazy - crazy with a capital C!” True, this is a very challenging market environment for resource shares, but we know what the ultimate outcome will be: higher share prices. Full Story
Central Banks around the world have been under pressure to cover shortfalls in fiscal policy. At his monthly press conference, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi stuck to his guns, telling politicians to focus on structural reforms to stimulate growth, rather than raising hopes for more easy money from the ECB. Interest rates remain at 1%; the euro reacted positively to Draghi's comments. Full Story
HOW OFTEN are gold prices as range bound as this? The London gold fix on Wednesday afternoon marked the fortieth trading day in a row that gold fixed between $1600 and $1700. The last PM Fix outside this range was on March 5 ($1705 an ounce). Spot gold prices did manage to poke their head above the $1700 mark later that same week, but since then gold has gone pretty much nowhere. Is it common to see such a protracted period of sideways trading? Full Story
Ben Bernanke has a pet peeve. It has to do with power – specifically, his. He does not like it when common people have the power to tell him and his Ph.D.-holding peers that they don't know what they are doing. The common man can veto Bernanke and his peers by cashing in dollars for gold. He resents this. The money supply should be supplied by the free market, under the laws of contract. The government should not be in the money business. End the FED. Full Story
Yale Simpson is the Executive Chairman of Exeter and a professional geologist. He has a Bachelor of Applied Science (Geological Engineering) from the University of British Columbia, Canada. Yale has more than 30 years experience as a senior geologist, exploration manager and CEO of companies involved in precious metals projects in Australia, Africa, Eastern Europe and Argentina. Full Story
How’s the U.S. economy doing? Although you couldn’t tell from the muted reaction of the stock market, yesterday’s headlines were as discouraging as we’ve seen in a while. For starters, the supposed recovery generated a feeble 119,000 private-sector jobs in April — less than half the number required to recoup positions lost during the worst years of the still-potent Great Recession. Full Story
There is a tide in the affairs of gold that is changing the entire shape of the gold market. We are not just talking about the demand side but the supply side as well. Neither the gold market nor the gold price has factored in these changes yet. And the changes are designed to affect the gold market both unobtrusively and over time. Full Story
Most micro-cap resource stocks were immersed and have stayed underwater since a sector-wide high in early March 2011. The Toronto Venture Exchange Index, which serves as a good proxy, is down 43% from that period of time. Weakness in the resource sector has occurred despite record or near-record prices for most commodities in 2011 and continuing high prices into the second quarter of 2012. Full Story
Gold got to peek above the trendline in the downward sloping channel and looked poised for a solid breakout with a few days of solid momentum behind it. Then the rumor was a "fat finger" trade came in, conveniently smashing the gold price safely back down inside the bearish channel. Pure coincidence? I don't know, but as I always say I don't care about manipulators, I only care about objectively analyzing the auction. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Scott Jobin-Bevans - 2 May, 2012
Scott Jobin-Bevans, immediate past-president of the Prospectors and Developers Association (PDAC), candidly assesses the political, environmental and technical challenges facing foreign companies exploring for gold and other minerals on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, we learn that the majors are paving the way for junior mining firms on the island, which holds much buried treasure, despite environmental and political challenges. Full Story
At the latest Casey Research conference, respected investment analyst Porter Stansberry stood at the podium and predicted that the price of oil will fall below US$40 per barrel within the next 12 months. Part of his reasoning revolves around the impact that the shale gas revolution has had in the United States – he believes a similar thing will happen with oil. Porter is a friend of mine and a very smart, successful individual… but I think not. Full Story
Between March 2001 and April 2012, the price of gold never fell for 3 months in succession. So expecting "two months max" made for a great signal to buy gold on pullbacks, most recently in Jan. 2010 (your last chance below $1100) and April 2009 (last chance below $900). That third month just never came. Until April 2012. Full Story
It was Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave fame, likely among others who noted that correlations between all asset classes are quite strong during a Depression. This is true in a cyclical sense but not in a structural sense. Stocks tumbled in the 1929-1941 period while commodities, led by Gold and gold producers, increased in value. Full Story
There is only one reason it and the US Government hasn't gone bankrupt yet. It's because they can still print dollars to cover all these deficits. But how much longer can that realistically last before hyperinflation sets in and the dollar becomes worthless? We can't see any way it goes more than five more years from here... and that's pushing it. Full Story
Saving the best for last, behold the Au-SPX ratio and its Cup (3 years in the making) & Handle (conveniently, a Falling Wedge with 5 distinct waves that people who count such things might like to see). A 5th wave could still be in the making down to 1.1, but this is a really bullish structure and I am not afraid to say so. Full Story
Real estate investors competing to buy Manhattan apartment buildings have sent prices to record highs as rental demand surges, reducing yields on the properties to the lowest in more than six years. The capitalization rate, a measure of investment return that declines as prices rise, averaged 4.4% for Manhattan multifamily buildings in first three months of this year… Full Story
It may not seem like much happened yesterday, but a very important event occurred. Yesterday the dollar index breached 78.65. The reason that is significant is because 78.65 marked the intraday low of the prior daily cycle. A penetration of that level indicates that the current daily cycle has now topped in a left translated manner and a new pattern of lower lows and lower highs has begun. Any time a daily cycle tops in a left translated manner it almost always indicates that the intermediate cycle has also topped. Full Story
Over the last few years, as the debt crisis has engulfed Europe, the risk that has most concerned economists has been the possibility that the so-called 'olive growing countries' of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, joined by Ireland (and known as the PIIGS) might leave, or be forced out, of the Eurozone. The possibility that Germany may choose to leave, however, is something that has received far less consideration. Full Story
The only chart I see that looks better than this GDX bull wedge chart, is this GDXJ chart. Both charts are showing classic breakouts from bull wedge patterns. Another few days of consolidation in advance of the jobs report is probably just what the “breakout doctor” ordered, at this point in price and time. Full Story
“Humble” is typically not an attribute associated with the Federal Reserve (Fed), especially in light of the trillions of dollars recently printed. Yet, in his latest press conference Fed Chairman Bernanke called for humility: we must be humble in setting monetary policy! The problem is, Bernanke’s definition of the word “humble” appears to be something entirely different from what – in our humble opinion - common sense might expect. Full Story
The US Great Depression lasted from 1929 until 1945, but the deflationary phase of the Depression effectively ended in 1932. Regardless of whether you define deflation and inflation in terms of money supply or prices, there was almost continuous inflation in the US after 1932. The inflation was, however, briefly interrupted during 1937-1938, when a leveling-off in the money supply and a sudden economic downturn led to sharp declines in equity and commodity prices. Full Story
After all, the way to devalue gold is to flood the world with it. But what has the world been flooded with? Not real gold but "paper gold," imaginary gold. This reliance on the imaginary and the ever-more-embarrassing secrecy imposed by Western central banks on their gold reserves and activities in the gold market argue for scarcity of the real thing rather than surplus. Full Story
Far from being the usual boring consensus event for gold prices, the inaugural Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Precious Metals Conference today struck a decidedly controversial note. Ross Norman of the blue-blooded Sharps Pixley brokers from London was the leader of the bullish camp. He forecast $3,500-4,000 gold prices and $100 an ounce for silver by 2017. Full Story
Are gold and the bloodied mining stocks at an important turning point? So it would appear. Persuasive evidence of this came together for us yesterday after we ran into an old friend, a real estate developer with a commodity-trading jones, who asked whether it might finally be time to buy the stuff. “Buy it?” we replied. “We’ve been trying for a week to buy anything gold-related but it’s like trying to catch a jackrabbit.” Hmmm. Is gold trying to tell us something? Full Story
A far more obvious and plausible explanation is that the trade wasn't uneconomic at all -- that it was part of a central bank-sponsored defense of a short position in gold or a defense of a competing currency or both, part of the longstanding Western central bank scheme to rig the currency markets and particularly the gold market: Full Story
Why is Bennie in trouble? He is in trouble because he has a debt, or should I say an obligation to Obama for reappointing him Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Fed. Here’s where the problem lies. In order to fulfil this bond of duty, Bennie and his buddies down at the Fed will need to pull off slight of hand tricks that would put the best of magicians to shame. They will need to keep people’s attention focused on the left hand while the right continues to do their ‘dirty work’. Full Story
The fundamentals for silver today are even better than they were last year when its price and sentiment were higher. Nevertheless, consumer affinity for precious metals has turned rather pessimistic presently. This may be indicated by those who see a rise in the COMEX silver inventories as well as a drop-off in Silver Eagle purchases. Furthermore, our favorite so-called precious metals analysts (more like Bears in a Bull’s skin) have come out of the woodwork to rub it in that the “GOLD BULL MARKET IS NOW OVER.” Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Paolo Lostritto - 30 April, 2012
Paolo Lostritto, mining equity research analyst with National Bank Financial, attributes development companies' current struggles to both the recent trend for capital and operating cost increases and to the European sovereign debt crisis. In this exclusive Gold Report interview, Lostritto explains that there are opportunities as long as investors look for companies with free-cash-flow growth and solid balance sheets. Full Story
Gold climbed a set of stairs for most of today's Comex trading session on the 5 minute chart, and is at the upper trendline resistance of a perfectly parallel downward sloping channel on the daily chart. If gold breaks out on a surge in volume I will be extremely focused on trading gold to the long side until there is a reversal or my near term price target of $1,722 is reached. Full Story
Global investors pulled the most out of stock funds in April since at least 1996 when records began. Equity funds posted net redemptions of $18.6 billion through to April 25th, according to data from EPFR Global. Full Story
We wrote here recently that as Apple shares go, so goes the U.S. stock market. How has the stock fared? Last week there was quite a bit of excitement when the broad-tossers who manipulate the stock for a living short-squeezed the bejeezus out of it after the close, leveraging a strong earnings report that could have surprised only Wall Street’s clueless analysts. Full Story
GUESTS: Jim Rogers, A Bull In China Harry S. Dent Jr., The Great Depression Ahead J. Scott Drever - President and Director, SilverCrest Mines Inc. Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute Full Story
With his new study, "Dr. Zijlstra's Final Settlement: Gold as the Monetary Cosmos' Sun," appended here, our good friend the Netherlands economist Jaco Schipper of MarketUpdate.nl today adds substantially to the growing documentation of the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme. Full Story
There has been a lot of pain in Spain recently with probably more to come. Unemployment is at 24% while youth unemployment (under age 24) is about 53% and rising. The economy is in recession. Debt, both government and private, is excessive and there is pressure for greater austerity measures. Many Spanish banks are technically insolvent following the real estate collapse. Full Story
In its struggle against the gold price suppression scheme and surreptitious market rigging by governments generally, GATA long has failed to win support from major gold and silver mining companies, despite our frequent solicitation, perhaps because mining companies are so vulnerable to the scheme's instigators -- governments, which control mining licenses, royalty requirements, and environmental regulations -- and to the scheme's agents and profiteers -- big investment houses, which control mine finance, mining being the most capital-intensive industry. Full Story
There are times, my friends Michael Lewitt and Dr. Lacy Hunt agreed today at lunch, when the study of economics is best informed by a sound knowledge of history. Indeed, Michael's son wants to follow his father into the finance world, and Michael is starting him off in history. I have spent hours listening to Lacy stroll through economic history, detailing the path of economic thought from Fisher to Kindleberger to Minsky. The last few days have been one of those times when I realized how much I don't know and how much more there is to learn. Full Story
It was indeed quite the week with Spain reeling now in debt issues and interest rates soaring. I guess Greece is fixed! But we all know that the list of troubled countries is long and getting longer and we’ve yet to fix any of them, we’ve only see the can kicked down the road a bit. Full Story
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