To many investors cycles are the holy grail of the financial market. Many investors have devoted years to the study of them. Some have even claimed to have found the ideal cycles for consistently predicting price movements. What no one can seem to agree upon is exactly which cycles are most accurate for anticipating market moves. But what all studies of the cycles share in common is an unshakable conviction that cycles hold the answers for what is coming in the future. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 4 December, 2015
Gold’s latest slide to new secular lows has amplified the hyper-bearish sentiment long plaguing it. More than ever, traders are universally convinced gold is doomed to drift lower indefinitely. But these extreme gold lows are not fundamentally righteous, they resulted from extreme record gold-futures shorting. As these risky leveraged bets must soon be covered, prices driven by them are artificial and unsustainable. Full Story
Before getting to the real point of the title "Policy error or on purpose?", it needs to be pointed out the entire financial system is a "policy error". We live in a world where even the real economy is increasingly run via central planning. As for the financial side of the coin, central planning has taken on an Alice in Wonderland hue. Whether it be the suspension of mark to market, markets entirely managed and "priced" by force, debt by definition needing to expand or the central banks need for continual asset inflation ...they all have ramifications. What I am alluding to is the law of unintended consequences in relation to bad policy. Full Story
The Fact that the Equities Markets have been chopping near their 2015 highs recently (except for the serious November 27 5.5% Drop in the Shanghai Composite) is quite Deceptive. Critical Mega-Trends in Key Sectors are increasingly Manifesting themselves, Mega-Trends which will generate both immediate Mega Moves and Multi-Decade Impacts. To consider them and the Potential for Great Profits and Great Losses, consider the Summary below and our December Letter and Forecasts below. Full Story
Best selling author / mathematician / economist, Dr. Leeb and the host discuss a disturbing trend in the domestic economy. Despite the lowest Jobless Claims numbers in decades, economic growth remains anemic. Given the 75% odds of an FOMC rate hike at the December meeting, the first in nearly a decade, the strong dollar and resulting higher rates will continue to put pressure on the mortgage / housing sector as well as the general economy. The combination will push the already struggling economy passed the tipping point, into full blown recession. Full Story
It’s always been true, as Bourne said, that “war is the health of the State.” But it’s especially true when economic times get tough. That’s because governments like to blame their problems on outsiders; even an imagined foreign threat tends to unify opinions around those of the leaders. Since economies around the world are all weakening, and political leaders are all similar in essential mindset, there’s good reason to believe the trend towards World War III is accelerating. Full Story
Drug cartels. Kidnappings. Assassinations. A war for billions in cocaine profits. Leftist guerrillas looking for a piece of the action. If you’ve seen a movie with this stuff in it, there’s a good chance it was set in Colombia. Popular culture has depicted Colombia this way for decades. The media has pounded this image into the public’s consciousness. So it’s no surprise most people think of the country as a scary, dangerous place. Full Story
A few weeks ago we warned that the gold miners were at risk of a technical breakdown. They struggled to rebound at support while Gold was breaking to a new low. Gold continued to decline but the miners held support and stabilized. Gold traded as low as $1045 on Thursday but the miners continued to diverge in a positive fashion. The recent relative strength from the gold miners particularly in the face of new lows in Gold, coupled with the oversold condition of the metals suggests a sector rebound is developing. Full Story
To sum up, there is a negative correlation between the price of gold and the ratio of the U.S. GDP to gold price. It makes sense, given the fact that gold is a non-confidence vote in the U.S. economy and a currency competing with the greenback. However, since GDP is a very complex and aggregate lagging indicator, the relationship between these two variables should be taken with a grain of salt. Full Story
The answer to many questions often depends upon perspective, whether the questions are; should I buy silver, is the SPX 500 expensive, is huge and unpayable debt a problem, is another World War a bad idea, will eating potato chips and candy bars actually damage my health, and are Republicrats as useless and corrupt as they appear? Full Story
It’s great as long as things stay so symmetrical that even a linear-thinking, professionally trained economist can understand it. Indeed, Mario Draghi has been implementing a ‘me too!’ QE plan in Europe in order to more or less ape the success that is the US bond market err, management program. Fed Funds interest rates at zero, pinning T bill yields to the mat and encouraging banks to borrow for free and lend at interest, Quantitative Easing in various forms sanitizing inflation signals and literally painting the macro backdrop as desired. It all seemed so easy, so unquestioned by the market. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 4 December, 2015
I’m establishing a tracking position — long four contracts from 1048.00 — since subscribers reported buying December Gold on the basis of a longstanding target I’d furnished at 1044.50. The futures traded as low as 1046.20 intraday, probably as close as they’re going to get to the target if it’s going to work. As is my practice, I will recommend taking a quick profit on half the position at a current price of around 1063.70. Full Story
Many people think that they ring a bell at the top of a bull market. Ding-a-ling-a-ling. That is indeed often the case. The bell was rung in 2000 at the top of the dot-com bubble—I like to think it was 3Com spinning off Palm that broke its back. But sometimes there is no bell, no catalyst, no story to tell. A bull market becomes a bear market, and it happens just like that. Silicon Valley has been in a food fight for about three years now. Everyone knows it’s going to end, except for the folks in Silicon Valley. These guys are funny. I met a few of them in the last cycle. They really thought it was going to go on forever. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Nate Silver - 3 December, 2015
I’m going to offer something a little different in this week’s Outside the Box. Nate Silver has consistently been one of the best political analysts of the past 12 years. I wasn’t terribly enamored of his move from the New York Times to ESPN – to go back to covering sports rather than politics – but he still covers politics over at 538. Full Story
When it comes to investing, the first rule thing you need to learn is effective management of your emotions. It is impossible to eliminate the impulse to act when euphoria or panic are in the air. While you cannot eliminate the emotion that pushes to you react, you can control your reaction. You can choose to run with the herd of fight panic and stand aside while the herd stampedes. The most important rule is to never let your emotions do the talking. This means not succumbing to panic or euphoria. If you fail here, then nothing can help you. All the rules in the world will fail to alter your outcome. Full Story
Chris welcomes Dr. Martenson from PeakProsperity.com - Dr. Martenson categorizes capital into eight essential types in his new must read book, Prosper! The good doctor concerned about a potentially risky period of economic deflation, were insufficient money and credit are available to sustain high debt levels, with as much as $200 trillion at risk of default. The event will lead to central bank intervention by way of massive monetary stimulus, such as QE to infinity. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 3 December, 2015
Never before in history have all the governments of the world laid down the foundation for the perfect economic storm. And in this just-released presentation from Mike Maloney, you’ll discover why we can not avoid it. It was recorded LIVE at the 2015 Silver Summit. And it’s loaded with new research that proves a financial crisis of epic proportions is headed straight toward us. Full Story
The technical charts on gold are suggesting the start of a fresh leg lower in price. The loss of chart support near the $1075-$1070 level, and the subsequent inability of the metal to move back above that level, has led to both long liquidation on the part of the specs as well as fresh shorting. On the intermediate term chart ( Weekly) price appears headed for the lower line of the downtrending price channel that has contained gold since April of 2014. Currently, that targets a potential move to down near $1030-$1020. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 3 December, 2015
With the soon-to-expire December contract just inches from a longstanding target at 1044.50, the February futures have somewhat farther to fall to reach an important target of their own at 1035.70 (see inset). It is of a lesser degree, but potentially useful to us because it is so clear and compelling. The implication is that it can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss in expectations of a strong bounce. Full Story
For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis. All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $10 trillion in debt to the US system. Full Story
Over the summer the Chinese market experienced a major hiccup, causing concern that many Asian industries would be slow, or unable to recover. Since the June collapse, however, there is one sector that continues to score with investors, both here and overseas – sportswear. Full Story
Traders are bidding up the U.S. dollar and dumping metals as they become more convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting. Janet Yellen and company have been talking about raising rates for the better part of a year, though. All talk and no action so far. Will they finally hike or keep crying wolf? We'll find out when the Fed meets on December 15-16. Full Story
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view. In other words, we think that taking the rest of the profits off the table is justified from the risk to reward point of view. It seems likely that we will re-enter the short positions shortly, though. Full Story
The EU’s political leaders and other elites are committed to holding the European Union together. To them, united Europe is an article of faith. They hold the idea with as much ferocity and fervor as any religious belief. But while the European Union is a wonderful political idea, it’s economically terrible. And the EU nations will have to face up to bearing enormous costs to save the Europe we wished for. Full Story
There is no need to mince words or beat around the bush with this update. The latest COTs for gold released yesterday showed another marked improvement so that they are now strongly and unequivocally bullish – in fact they are at their most positive since late 2001, that’s 14 years. We are not going to waste our time trying to figure out the reason or reasons for this, but possibly this situation suggests that the Fed is not going to raise rates this month as widely expected. If they don’t, the dollar, which has wafted back to its highs on this expectation, will drop and the PM sector will rally. Full Story
Up! Buy the dips! What could possibly go wrong? A hell of a lot, actually, so investors might want to take precautions before, rather after, bad things happen to one’s portfolio. We take a stab at where one may find opportunities in 2016. In an early August Merk Insight entitled Coming Out - As a Bear!, we argued rising “risk premia” could create headwinds to the stock market (and other so-called risk assets) for at least eighteen months, if not years. To understand what this means, consider that central banks have - in our view - taken fear out of the market, as evidenced by low yielding junk bonds and low volatility in the stock market, amongst others. Full Story
The price of gold is determined mainly through changes in the general level of confidence in the Fed and the U.S. economy. This is why the U.S. dollar exchange rate (and the Forex market in general) has such strong influence on the yellow metal. As one can see in the chart below, gold is leveraged to the misfortune of major global fiat money. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 2 December, 2015
Former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul told Daniela Cambone of Kitco News on Tuesday that the gold market is manipulated by the U.S. government to support the dollar, that the government is fully authorized to manipulate the market through the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund, and that everyone pretends that it isn't happening. Full Story
The federal reserve was never a sound system that has grown corrupt. It was always a corrupt system that has grown more corrupt. Ron Paul has the right approach — End the Fed. Get it the hell out of our lives and restore monetary freedom — the right to choose a medium of exchange. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 December, 2015
The world doesn’t realize it, but record global silver coin demand is warning that big trouble is coming to the financial system. More investors are waking up to the fact that there is something seriously wrong with the financial industry and broader stock markets and are buying more physical gold and silver than ever. Full Story
As many were running out shopping on Black Friday for what they viewed as the “deals of the year,” I sat in my office contemplating the precious metals. And, it made me think about human nature. We have all seen the pictures of people not only standing on line at all hours of the day or night, but some even camped out for days as they await the opening of stores so they can grab what they believe to be the hottest deals of the season. In fact, I saw one story of someone waiting three hours to save $10 on a consumer product. Moreover, we even see crowds stampeding, often causing injuries to those unable to keep up with the crowd, as they make their way into the stores. Full Story
The Comex is like a grade-B horror movie – night of the living dead. Zombies that wreak havoc on society but can’t be destroyed. The Comex is the consummate symbol of the United States. It embodies extreme fraud, corruption, wealth theft, market manipulation, regulatory capture, etc. It is the ultimate manifestation of the end of Rule of Law in this country. Full Story
The holidays, a much-needed boost in sales for retailers, are just around the corner. A growing number of retailers, however, continue to report shrinking traffic and disappointing sales—no matter whether it’s Gucci or Red Wing. This is what the growth of retail sales looks like for the last three months: August 0.0%, September 0.0%, October 0.1%—far below the +0.3% Wall Street was expecting. Full Story
Will they or won't they raise rates? As you know, I can't see any way they will do this, "data dependent" or not. Many say the rate hike depends on the unemployment number out this coming Friday. Really? The unemployment report has been shown by John Williams and others to be a bad joke in totally poor taste and virtually a complete fabrication. Zerohedge has come out with article after article showing the real situation in many reports and various market measures, the latest is seen here regarding ISM manufacturing. How is it possible the Fed is even contemplating a rate hike? Full Story
In early September, we noted the likely end of this current bull market in stocks by the appearance of a "death candle" on the monthly chart. In early October, we anticipated a rally that would be marked by a "green candle of hope". And now it's early December. What do you suppose comes next? Before we begin, it is extremely important to review where we've been. The original "death candle" post is linked below. Please be sure to re-read it and note that, if history is to repeat itself, the downside target for the SPX 500 is somewhere between 1000 and 1100. Full Story
Sell the rumour, and buy the news! The rumour was a possible IMF decision to include the yuan as a component of its SDR. The news is out, and the news is good; the IMF has decided to include the yuan in its SDR virtual currency basket. Donald Trump and other “protectionists” have argued that the yuan is undervalued against the dollar. In contrast, I’ve argued that it is overvalued, and with the IMF decision out of the way, the PBOC will likely cease its short term support. Full Story
The bounce in stocks has reached ludicrous proportions. The SPX 500 has completely disconnected from most risk assets, driven by the usual manipulation during options expiration week, performance gaming by hedge funds before end of the month results are posted, and short covering. Full Story
So, what happens when the Comex "delivery" process is exposed as a fraud, an illusion and a charade? Does this mean that the Comex paper derivative price can no longer be the basis for physical pricing worldwide? YES IT DOES! That, my friend, is the reason we so diligently chronicle this stuff month after month. And, boy oh boy, it sure looks like December 2015 is going to be a doozy. Full Story
At the Cato Monetary Conference this week, Scott Sumner said he had a “modest” proposal, that there should be a highly liquid futures market in Nominal Gross Domestic Product (NGDP). This caught my attention, as the futures market is a topic near and dear to my heart (I write about it every week). Sumner is known for his view that the Fed should target NGDP as the basis for monetary policy. So a futures market that predicts it would be convenient. Let’s look at his idea more closely. Full Story
It might be hard to believe now, but Argentina once ranked among the top 10 wealthiest nations in the world, following the United Kingdom, United States and Australia. Today, however, it’s one of the most corrupt, according to Transparency International, a group that annually measures public sector corruption around the world. In 2014, Argentina ranked 107, sandwiched between Niger and Djibouti. Full Story
JM Bullion is an online retailer of gold and silver products, from bars to rounds to coins. We deal exclusively in physical bullion, selling gold or silver that is delivered directly to your door. Quality products are one of our top priorities. JM Bullion works directly with mints and distributors, and we inspect all new inventory carefully, ensuring that the products our customers receive are of the highest quality. Our coins come direct from the mint, in brand new, sealed tubes, and the majority of our bar and round products are indicated as “brand new” on their product pages, meaning they ship sealed in plastic and fresh from the mint. Full Story
They call it ‘behavioral finance’. It’s the study and application of how psychology affects decision-making in financial markets. This field is widely studied now in both academia and the business world alike, with many works such as this, and is a primary reason (the other being greed) the application of algorithms in computerized trading (news dissemination, etc.) has taken over the trade on modern day stock exchanges. Full Story
Silver was the best performing precious metal this week, falling just 0.63 percent. Short sellers apparently did not care if silver traded lower as over 18,000 gold contracts, or $1.9 billion notional, was dumped in overnight markets as U.S. participants woke from the Thanksgiving holiday on Friday morning. Full Story
It has been said "truth" is a funny concept. What is truth to one may not be to another because opinions vary from one person to another. "Truth" in this context consists of one's opinion or point of view. By this definition truth can be altered, changed or even "made". For example, the truth believed and espoused by MSNBC is far different than that of FOX News, both by the reporters themselves and by viewers. Real truth however cannot be "made", massaged or opined as it is mathematical in origin and more an issue of black and white. Full Story
It’s been almost 50 months since the gold traded at the dizzy heights of $1900/oz back in August 2011, to the delight of every gold bug on the planet. However, since then it has been a slow grind south with rally after rally proving to be just another head fake. Gold has now lost $845.00 or 44.47% of its value in dollar terms, since peaking back then. Full Story
From the little guy trading on his laptop to some big hedge fund manager that has an office full of people telling him what to do. The sum total of everyone’s psychology and conviction is what creates the many different chart patterns we are constantly searching for. Take for example the principle of Reverse Symmetry , how a stock goes up is often how it comes back down. Full Story
We all have great cause for gratitude this Thanksgiving weekend, whether or not you celebrated that holiday in your home country. In the last month we have seen how violence can touch people far from the battlefields. If your only connection to the recent terrorist events came through watching the news, count yourself lucky. Others can only wish they had such distance. Full Story
The battle lines are drawn and the fight for supremacy is drawn out along two lines. The first is the 100 line on the US Dollar Index. Since the 13th November, the dollar has meandered between 99 and 100 trying to push higher. The dollar now has reached the same level achieved in March 2015. The ingredients are there for a major double top as the RSI meanders in the low 70s and gold enters deeply oversold territory in terms of the dollar. Full Story
A great week for markets and leading stocks who are set to breakout higher and finish off 2015 strongly anytime now. There is easy money out there, just not in the metals who continue to be battered as we near the major support areas I’ve taken so much flak for talking about, but I’ve been right so the flak has diminished considerably. Full Story
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