By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 3 February, 2017
Gold’s first new bull market since 2011 last year was overwhelmingly driven by stock investors flooding into gold ETFs. Traditional physical bar-and-coin demand was actually quite weak, falling considerably year-over-year. Nevertheless, it’s still important to stay abreast of classic gold and silver investment demand. One key microcosm of that comes in the form of the US Mint’s sales of its popular American Eagle coins. Full Story
Charles Hughes Smith from the Of Two Minds blog returns with commentary on the US economy / financial markets. US corporate buybacks data indicates that near zero interest rates has enabled thousands of firms to issue debt at low rates used to support share prices. The financial slight of hand is based on the concept of rising corporate earnings. Full Story
As we have repeatedly warning, anyone who is betting on the Trump Presidency unleashing a massive $USD bull market in the near future is going to get taken to the cleaners. This has already begun… One of the single most dangerous traps for traders to avoid is a “False Breakout.” False breakouts are moves in which an asset “breaks out” of a formation, leading many to believe that the move is legitimate… then suddenly KA-BLAM, the move reverses violently. Full Story
The current spurt comes at a time of dollar weakness, on profit-taking following the post-Trump election rally. There is little doubt that the post-election euphoria is wearing off somewhat, as the markets digest the unprecedented pace of executive orders being issued from the White House, some of them pregnant with unintended consequences. However, it is too early perhaps to call a top for the dollar measured against other currencies. Gold’s performance in the four major currencies is the subject of our next chart. Full Story
Stemming from the virtual absence of underwhelming economic data… the cumulative weight of growing confidence – as relative as it may be, continues to list US markets towards what we suspect will become another surprise “Come about!” in investors optimistic expectations towards the US economy. How much water markets may take on – or whether it becomes a capsizing Minsky moment, is another question entirely. Considering the Trump cards that could be played along the spectrum of possible outcomes (both bullish and bearish), the gap between risk and reward for nearly every type and duration of investment strategy remains profoundly wide. Full Story
One of the reasons most people are unable to make money in the stock market is that they are unable to change their expectations and suffer from recency bias. Full Story
In recent years, deflation was considered one of the biggest threats to the global economy. These fears are vanishing. As deflation becomes the thing of the past (there was even the end of deflation in Japan at the end of 2016), reflation is now attracting the attention of investors. What does it mean? According to the most popular definition, reflation is an increase in economic activity and inflation, usually caused by using inflationary measures to reverse deflationary trends. We simply take reflation to be acceleration in the rate of inflation, i.e. the opposite of disinflation, which is a decrease in the rate of inflation. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 3 February, 2017
Putting aside the fact that prior to the US Presidential election last November almost everyone believed that a Trump victory would result in a weak stock market, the popular view now is that the stock market has strengthened since the election due to the incoming Trump Administration being more pro-business. It is arguable whether the Trump Administration really will be “pro-business” (early signs are that it won’t be), but in any case the historical record indicates that the currently-popular view is total nonsense. Full Story
We’re already a month into New Year and there has been an ample amount of sentiment data to suggest that investors, both retail and institutional, aren’t terribly enthusiastic on the stock market outlook for 2017. Granted that institutional analysts are still bullish, as per usual, but in the round table type opinion polls I’ve seen they’ve apparently lowered their expectations. Everyone seems to be preparing for a somewhat disappointing year based largely on the assumption that after eight years of a bull market, surely another major rally is out of the question. Full Story
Whether or not we face a deterioration of the purchasing power of fiat currencies without one last hurrah of the credit cycle, the American monetary authorities, with the acquiescence of those of the other nations, have relied on statistical propaganda to conceal the consequences of buying off economic reality by accelerating the debasement of fiat money. It is a path that leads inevitably to discovery of the monetary fraud, but not an acceptance of blame. It will be alleged to be the fault of free markets, and that is why governments will most likely be driven even further to control them, through the suppression of prices by regulation. Full Story
Markets move on sentiment and expectations. At the moment, the sentiment is confused as most are having a hard time getting a clear read, but those who understand the power of market expectations have begun to load up on gold. You see the evidence in revived ETF demand (up roughly 1.2 million ounces in January) as well as demand from Asia, particularly China. Much of the market action and movement over the past several days has occurred during Chinese and European market hours, including last night. Today’s London morning benchmark was posted at $1224.05 – up about $12 from the trading level just before the posting. Full Story
President Donald J. Trump was elected on promises to “Make America Great Again,” and since January 20 he’s already signed a number of executive orders to tighten border security and ease regulations. Whether you approve of his actions or not, no one can deny that many of Trump’s policies are a sharp departure from American politics of the last 70 years, which has emphasized globalism and interventionism. Full Story
Expect much more inflation, like the 1970s and worse, as government and the Fed “stimulate” the economy with currency printing, QE, war, and spending. Congress likes spending projects and wars. The Fed likes devaluation of the dollar and inflation of the currency. The dollar has lost, compared to gold, over 98% of its value since 1913. Expect further devaluation of the dollar. President Trump may be wonderful or the worst, but can he fix 100 years of mismanagement and corruption? Expect Stag-Depress-Flation in the coming years. Expect much higher gold and silver prices in upcoming years. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 2 February, 2017
Gold has underperformed both in nominal and real terms. Last week it formed a bearish reversal in nominal terms and against foreign currencies. However, the good news for bulls is the US Dollar Index lost support at 100, due to the Trump administration’s tough talk against Germany (and the Euro). Couple that with no movement from the Fed and the greenback should continue its decline, thereby juicing the current rebound in Gold and especially gold stocks. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 2 February, 2017
Gold finished the day with a sharp upswing, but not before gratuitously inflicting pain on bulls with a $15 swoon early in the session. If the rally is ruled by the pattern shown as I expect it to be, the futures should hit 1219.10 overnight or early Thursday. With any luck the move will breeze past the target, giving us reason to expect more of the same over the near term. And if buyers can push just a little higher, surpassing the 1223.00 peak labeled in the chart, it would be bears for a change who are on the run. Full Story
By: Andy Sutton and Graham Mehl - 1 February, 2017
We’ll start out this week by prepping you. This article is going to annoy quite a few people. We’ll warn you up front that neither of us subscribes to the idea of political parties or platforms. We have the Constitution; that is good enough for us. We credit people like Dr. Paul Craig Roberts for having the backbone to be one of the early people to break out the box of pins to pop the balloon of idiocy that has been floating around the past few months. What we’re talking about is the kind of idiocy we haven’t seen since 2008 when one side of the political spectrum swamped into Washington DC and absolutely trashed the place. We’ll see if the other side can do better. Full Story
We have been documenting China’s insatiable appetite for gold for the past several years. When you realize how much gold China has acquired it puts gold in a completely different light. Gold is money and nothing else. It is used to create jewelry, however, this is nothing more than a centuries old tradition as a means to display and transport of wealth. If your wealth is wearable you can easily move around the region while freeing up space in the trunk or baggage for other items. Full Story
Jim Rogers rejoins the show from his Singapore office with his latest market commentary. The crude oil market appears to be building a bottom - he expects the low to emerge this year representing a buying opportunity. Jim Rogers finds value opportunities in the base metals and other commodities sectors. While the US equities markets rally is impressive, our guest points to financial history, noting that 3 rate hikes spells trouble for equities. Full Story
Gold made a bear market bottom in 2015, a higher yearly cycle high and yearly cycle low in 2016, and has begun a new bull market. However, traders, following the 4 year bear market, find they cannot easily convert to the new bull market mentality. Full Story
So, in the bigger picture, as long as we do not break our support levels, I will be looking for a break out over resistance. Should we see a strong break out over the highs struck this past week in GDX, as well as silver taking out 17.50, that is our trigger telling us the market is likely heading back up towards the August highs to complete wave 1 of wave iii. And, since we only deal in probabilities and not absolutes, should we break the cited supports before such break out is seen, it would make me question the potential bullish set up. But, for now, the market has done exactly what it needs to do to set us up in a larger degree bullish posture. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 1 February, 2017
The U.S. silver supply will likely be in jeopardy in the future when the highly inflated paper markets finally crack. This is not a matter of if, but WHEN. If we consider the top two precious metals and copper, silver has the highest net import reliance as a percentage of domestic consumption. Full Story
Dow 20,000 was ushered in with great fanfare. Traders on the New York Stock Exchange sported “Dow 20,000” hats. Even President Donald Trump joined the celebration. Trump told ABC News he was “very honored” that the stock market gave his presidency a symbolic vote of confidence. "Now we have to go up, up, up. We don't want it to stay there," he said. Full Story
By: Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith - 31 January, 2017
When people feel it is not available, then social unrest and revolutions can be expected to occur. Donald Trump's labeling of it as "a movement" should be more apply described as a predictable shift in cultural expectations. Listen to this 30 minute video discussion with supporting slides between Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long as they outline what they see is occurring and why. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 31 January, 2017
At the Washington joint press conference with Prime Minister May held on January 27th, President Trump told the watching world, "Brexit is going to be a wonderful thing." The meeting did much to clear the way for Britain to stand alone and enter trade with the United States without the European Union (EU). Their talk of a U.S.-UK free trade agreement could do much to ease the fears of some key English Members of Parliament and counterbalances the fears that Britain will be punished by a bitter EU. The positive meeting occurred at a fortuitous moment. Only four days prior, the UK's Supreme Court had ruled that Parliamentary approval must be specifically obtained before Her Majesty's Government can sign trigger negotiations to exit the EU. Full Story
I used to make fun of the FOMC rate hike “decision” language in the mainstream media because under the Obama administration and its economic policies overseen by the Fed’s monetary policy, there really was no decision, was there? It was ZIRP-eternity, interrupted by a lone and token rate hike in December 2015 (the Dec. 2016 hike does not count because the transition to a new administration and policy regime was already known; in effect, the Fed has already made its first hike under Trump). Full Story
A rally to $1250 would likely see GDX surge to $28, and a bigger move to $1650 for gold should see GDX make a new all-time high. That’s a bit further down the road, but eager gold stock investors should ensure they are building a solid block of core positions now, to partake in all the upside fun! Full Story
The $USD is about to collapse. This is not fear mongering, nor is it just a bold statement. The $USD has peaked and is about to breakdown in a BIG way. See for yourself, the greenback has taken out critical support. The spike higher that occurred starting election night is looking more and more like a bullish headfake. This means the $USD will reverse this entire move and THEN some. Full Story
On 14 October 2014, a new and expanded Freedom of Information Act was enacted into law in the Republic of Ireland. This news FOI Act (2014) extended the scope of coverage of Freedom of Information requests to “All Public Bodies” in the Irish State, and for the first time included Ireland’s central bank, the Central Bank of Ireland. Information and records relating to the expanded list of public bodies are not fully retrospective, and FOI requests under the new FOI Act (2014) only cover the right of access to records created by these additional public bodies on or after 21 April 2008. Full Story
2017 is the year of the 10th Chinese zodiac, the fire rooster, one of whose lucky colors is gold. Year-to-date, gold—the metal, not the color—is up 3.5 percent, which is below the 5.7 percent it had gained so far around this time last year. Unfortunately, gold prices won’t find support from Chinese traders this week, as markets will be closed in observance of the new year. If you remember, the yellow metal had one of its worst one-day slumps of 2016 back in October during China’s Golden Week, when markets were similarly closed. Full Story
One of the reasons share prices have risen so dramatically relative to revenues is that corporations are earning a lot more on each dollar of sales these days. How are they doing that? By squeezing their workers. The following chart, from the Economic Policy Institute shows labor’s share of corporate income plunging recently. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 31 January, 2017
The Fed meets to discuss its monetary policy this week. There is almost no chance that an outcome of this meeting will be another boost in the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), but there’s a decent chance that the next official rate hike will be announced in March. Regardless of when it happens and regardless of how it is portrayed in the press, the next Fed rate hike, like the two before it, will NOT imply a tightening of US monetary policy/conditions. Full Story
Other than 2013 during a period of massive QE stimulus every yearly cycle low in the stock market has at least retraced back to the 75 week moving average. Full Story
Donald Trump’s trade policy is likely to spark higher consumer price inflation, and that has ramifications for gold and silver prices. Regardless of where investors stand regarding the president’s plan to make Mexico “pay” for the border wall, if he is successful in getting Congress to impose a hefty tax on imports it will mean higher prices for things. A tax on goods from China could be even more inflationary. Full Story
Throughout 2016, we stated we did not expect much from Gold, and we stuck to this forecast, even though many experts went out of their way to report that Gold was ready to soar to the Moon or even to the next Galaxy. In fact, since 2011, we have continuously said that until the Trend turns positive, it would be best to play other lucrative markets, such as the general equities market, the US dollar, etc. During this time several experts stated that Gold was ready to surge and some issued insane targets ranging from $20,000-$50,000. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 0.74 percent. Silver also clocked a positive gain of 0.28 percent. Economic growth in the U.S. slowed more than forecast last quarter on the biggest trade drag in six years, reports Bloomberg. Net exports subtracted 1.7 percentage points from expansion in the October – December period, as dollar strength likely was a drag on growth. Should the new Trump administration push for a weaker dollar, this could lend support to gold. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I’m going to show you some updated charts on the US dollar which has been in a bull market since the low in 2011. It’s hard for a lot of investors to admit, but until the charts change the bull market continues. A bull market is characterized by a series of consolidation patterns forming one top of the next, until the last pattern is a reversal pattern which reverses the bull trend. The old expression, the trend is your friend, also applies to the US dollar as well. Until the US dollar negates the series of higher highs and higher lows on an intermediate term basis, we have to assume the bull market is in tact. Full Story
Donald Trump is now the new President of the United States of America (USA), such as it is, where libertarians and conservatives should be rejoicing – right? Well, maybe if he’s able to repeal Rule 41 and is able to right off a lot of debt without imploding the financial system (not possible) – yes – one must agree. However this is all speculation at this point – as is all the optimism associated with Trump, where like Reaganomics, Trumponomics, is expected to ‘reignite’ the US economy after 30-years of an aggressive hollowing out. Full Story
One of the most important concepts that my economic, philosophical, and political mentors have drilled into my head is this simple statement: Ideas have consequences. As a corollary to that, bad ideas have bad consequences. Mauldin’s corollary is that bad ideas can often overwhelm good ideas when applied by government bureaucrats, and that long after the market has rejected bad ideas, they may live on in academia and government bureaucracies. Full Story
In 1917 the War Industries Board (WIB) noted that the United States was deficient in certain minerals of great importance to war making and self defense. A pre-World War II list of materials contained a total of 29 materials: 14 were strategic materials that ‘must be based entirely or in substantial part on sources outside the United States.’ There were 15 critical materials that would be easier to source, perhaps even domestically, than the strategic materials. Full Story
This week, the prices of the metals had been up Sunday night but were slowly sliding all week—until Friday at 7:00am Arizona time (14:00 in London). Then the price of silver took off like a silver-speculator-fueled-rocket. It went from $16.68 to $17.25, or 3.4% in two hours. Full Story
Top Wall Street Chartered Technical Analyst (CTA), Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management returns with his outlook on US equities and the PMs. With the Dow Jones Industrials over 20,000, a new record, our guest outlines why stocks could still be undervalued by 10% and even surprise the bulls. Bill Murphy of GATA.org and the host discuss the prospects for the PMs sector in 2017. According to Bix Weir, a 1/1 gold / silver ratio is merely a matter of time as emerging technologies increasingly rely on silver. Full Story
Week one of the Trump Presidency and already it is mired in controversy. From “fake news” to “alternative facts” we are quickly learning there is an “alternative universe” that apparently the leader of the “free world” is occupying. Speaking of “free world” we learned this week that the US had been downgraded to a “flawed democracy” by the Economist’s Intelligence Unit. Almost half the world’s countries are considered to be democracies of some sort. Only 19 including Canada are considered to be full democracies. Full Story
This post features the latest versions of a selection of gold market charts created by the GOLD CHARTS R US website that have been chosen so as to capture gold demand, supply and physical movement data across some of the world's major gold markets. These include charts of Shanghai Gold Exchange physical gold withdrawals, Swiss gold export and import statistics, and Russian gold reserve changes. Full Story
For over 10 years now, we've been openly advocating that folks take action to become more prepared should crisis arrive. And for a long time, this advice relegated us to being labeled "tin-foil hat doomsday preppers" (and other less-polite monikers). The media just couldn't figure out any other box to put us in. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 29 January, 2017
There has been a lot of discussion on the remaining global supply of certain precious metals on the alternative media. I continue to read articles that state there are only ten years worth of silver remaining. Unfortunately, many of these figures are inaccurate. So, I thought I would provide an update based on recent USGS – United States Geological Survey data and information. Full Story
A recurring problem for most developed-world governments is explaining why last year’s plan didn’t work while convincing voters that this year’s new and improved plan will do the trick. This is especially tough when the new plan is pretty much the same as the old one and therefore just as likely to fail. Let’s take Japan as our first object lesson. Its government is the world’s most deeply indebted relative to GDP. Full Story
As this charade continues to bear down on our economies, our communities and our lives we are left with very simple options – accept the reality of what is happening and begin moving some funds into gold and silver or ignore what is happening and be swept away by the money-junkies and their failure to do the right thing and allow the system to clean itself out through debt default of the too big to jail banks. Full Story
As we warned more than 4½ years ago in this article here, the criminal banking cartel’s end game involves restricting freedom of speech and curbing any criticism of their criminal banking industry by banning cash and imposing an end game of 100% digital money upon all of us. Now with the benefit of 4½ more years, there can be little doubt that indeed, that the banking industry has advanced their war against all of us by accelerating their war on cash, and attempting to disguise this war on cash as a war on corruption. Full Story
Stocks continued to show nice strength as we get deeper into earnings season. They just look, and act great! We have a healthy sized group of top callers everyday which is what we need. It’s when everybody says we will go higher that I’ll get worried. As for the metals, the pre-Chinese New Year buying has dried up and we are seeing weakness set in now. Full Story
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