How long can the government continue to Extend & Pretend? How long can public policy endlessly ‘kick-the-can’ down the road without addressing the underlying causes? Such a critical point is often academically referred to as a ‘Tipping Point’ or what newsletter writer John Mauldin refers to as a ‘Finger of Instability’. I am more pragmatic and as an investor, who is forced to call the timing, I call it the Maturity Wall. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Brent Cook - 2 April, 2010
Size matters to renowned exploration analyst and geologist Brent Cook, not being a fan of small projects. He follows geology and discoveries worldwide and pays close attention to the teams involved. "Although scamsters, frauds or hucksters can make a discovery, you're much better off screening out all but the best people," he tells The Gold Report readers. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 2 April, 2010
Nearly a decade into gold’s secular bull the mining industry continues to exhibit struggles. And this is best characterized by an ongoing 6-year downtrend in global mine production. For this reason, and the fact that gold is up 373% since 2001, those miners that are able to find success have the ability to greatly profit in this bull. And it is this profit potential that has attracted investors to gold stocks. Full Story
SAID IT BEFORE, but we'll say it again. The bull market in gold starting 10 years ago is about much more than the Dollar – a fact that investors and savers worldwide might want to consider in 2010 if the US currency continues to rally. Full Story
Not being much of a conspiracy theorist, last week’s hearing by the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) on futures market trading for metals was a subject of some interest to me, but the news flow since that time has been rather remarkable – if for no other reason that none of the news seems to be flowing in the mainstream media. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 2 April, 2010
When the open interest in silver futures contracts exceeds 800 million oz., and when the silver on deposit for delivery is a mere 50 million oz., it does not take a genius to figure out that something is out of balance. That's only a 6% backing! Full Story
The Threat to Wealth, including a Threat to that (formerly most sacrosanct) category, Pensions, is just beginning, though the Markets now appear to have calmed. But that calm is The Eye of a Market Hurricane which began in 2008, and The Eye is slowly but inexorably moving. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 2 April, 2010
The fact is that Social Security is seemingly doomed, as, for the first time, this year more money will be paid out to beneficiaries than will be collected from workers. Full Story
The Goldsmiths have previously cited the golden rule—He who has the gold does the ruling. History for the last 6,000 years proves that little gem of truth. More proof of that fact will follow below with a brief look at some history from Greece, the nation recently that has been in the news media with concern that she is bankrupt and may soon default on her debt. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 1 April, 2010
During the 1990s, inflationary Federal Reserve policy fueled a tech stock bubble. When that bubble burst, the Fed inflated a larger one in real estate. Now that the real estate bubble has burst, the Fed is inflating the biggest bubble of them all - a bubble in government. While the earlier booms at least provided the illusion of prosperity and some fun while they lasted, the government bubble will cripple the economy and deliver widespread misery to the vast majority of Americans. Full Story
Lately we’ve been writing about the importance of the bond market. Want a hint if we will have hyperinflation? Follow the bond market. Japan and the US in the 1930s didn’t have hyperinflation because there were enough domestic savings to finance the expansion of the government. Rather than argue about inflation/deflation, people should be talking about the bond market. Full Story
What does Fibonacci analysis predict for gold over the next year? We recently heard from a skillful practitioner of the dark arts, “Mestre Socrates,” who sees $1490 an ounce by around next May. But there’s a chance the path will not be smooth, he cautions, since prices could first dip as low as $1012 – more than $100 beneath current levels. Full Story
News that London trader, Andrew Maguire, has exposed manipulation in the precious metals market has been making the rounds over the last week. This rehashed story of precious metals manipulation, which is being ignored by the mainstream media, has quickly acquired ultra-conspiracy status because Mr. Maguire was not permitted to testify at the CFTC hearing, technical difficulties were encountered as soon as GATA’s Bill Murphy started to speak, and days after the hearing Mr. Maguire’s car was struck in a ‘bizarre’ hit and run. Full Story
Most people seem to be confused these days. This not only applies to investors, but to everyday folks across the spectrum. People hear one thing, but they see another. Doubt and uncertainty are, therefore, fairly common. Full Story
A few weeks ago, the Federal Reserve released the new Z.1 Flow of Funds document, which covers flows and outstandings through the fourth quarter of 2009. What does the document reveal? You guessed it – more of the same reckless behavior that got us into this mess in the first place. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 1 April, 2010
Over two thousand years ago, China began to build its Great Wall in order to keep nomadic tribes and marauding armies from crossing its borders. In the last few decades, China has built another protective barrier, a 'Great Firewall,' to keep socially disruptive web content from reaching its citizens. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Paul Moase - 1 April, 2010
Do the past successes of resource company principals portend future successes as they migrate to other companies or projects? Investment Banker and Financial Advisor Paul Moase has been following the resource sector for 25 years. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Paul discusses what he looks for first when selecting his potential investment opportunities. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 1 April, 2010
In one of my worse nightmares coming true, my boss “stopped by” my office with some security camera footage of me allegedly coming to work where I am obviously but allegedly drunk as a skunk and allegedly belligerent, although there is no sound track to confirm this, towards the other employees also allegedly coming in to work, where I am allegedly and seemingly yelling at them in a spittle-drenched rage that they are idiots because they are not buying gold, silver and oil... Full Story
Who will bail out America? A longtime budget hawk and currently CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, David Walker says America's growing long-term debt is dangerously close to passing a "tipping point" that could trigger soaring interest rates and a plummeting dollar. In a worst case scenario, that could trigger a "global depression," he says, warning: "Nobody's going to bail out America." Full Story
This week, the US Treasury will begin to unwind its position in Citigroup stock, which it purchased as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program that began in 2008 to rescue failing banks. While some claim this move will reduce the money stock available in the economy, the program is unlikely to have any impact on the money supply and inflation. Full Story
In our previous essay we explained the link between the USD Index, and the price of gold and commented on what how is the situation on the USD likely to influence the precious metals market. This week, we would like to comment on the second driver of the PM prices - the general stock market. Full Story
Wanted to buy China's growth story but didn't know how...? The WORLD GOLD COUNCIL'S excellent new 74-page report on Chinese gold demand – Gold in the Year of the Tiger – contains many graphics, tables and charts. Time-pressed investors should focus on just two... Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 31 March, 2010
Bubbles have a hard time coming to an end, especially in residential real estate. Underlying forces such as government intervention to prolong the agony and the abject stupidity of builders extends the bubbles. We are in a vast home inventory expansion and builders are going to build 535,000 new homes. The projected foreclosure rate could give us as much as a 3-year home inventory, up from present levels of about a year, if one includes the lenders shadow inventory. Full Story
By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors Inc. - 31 March, 2010
What would happen to the price of gold if China’s annual consumption went up tenfold? That’s the high-end demand case laid out by the World Gold Council (WGC) in its new report “Gold in the Year of the Tiger,” which focuses on China. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 31 March, 2010
I was pleasantly surprised by the CFTC meeting in Washington DC on March 25th, it was much better than I expected. I think the CFTC is likely to do something to help stop the excessive and concentrated short position in silver at the COMEX, and there are many reasons why, as I detail below. Full Story
Amazingly enough...or maybe it's not so amazing, every time gold corrects we see the conspiracy theories flying thick and heavy. I've questioned these theories I don't know how many times and I have yet to receive a logical answer. Now that I think about it, I don't believe I've ever received any answer. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 31 March, 2010
I am always interested in the Conference Board’s Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators, mostly because the work is already done and I don’t have to do anything but look at the results, and then take the rest of the day off to think about what it all means. Full Story
Is economic recovery slowly emerging? And is there perhaps a benign side to the alarming expansion of the nanny state under President Obama? Readers aggressively rejected both of these ideas in responding to yesterday’s essay by “Donniemac.” Following are the comments of Chris T., whose thoughts mirror our own, especially where they pertain to the steepening decline in America’s standard of living. Full Story
The Census aims to be every man’s hero. It promises an economic stimulus, a reduction in unemployment, and greater funds for every community. Of course, the reality is much closer to a game of musical chairs with your money. And guess who will be left standing? Full Story
Despite short term moves to the contrary, it is difficult to imagine a scenario that would see increasing confidence in the world’s fiat paper currencies, the U.S. dollar included. We have to believe that if things weren’t so “messed up” in Europe, the greenback would be doing its best swan dive imitation now that bond yields are spiking up on the heels of Congress ramming through the Obama-care experiment in U.S. socialism. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 30 March, 2010
What is the price of gold? Who cares? As long as those blue days of under 300 an ounce don’t return. Dear heaven forbid. I’ll never forget those days. Everyday you watched the gold price hoping it would at least climb over 280. And then one day it might hit 291 and you were ready to celebrate with a bottle of Champaign. Full Story
In short, there is nobody between you and your money. Gold is money. The recent rally in global stock markets has also been treated with much skepticism in Arabia. It would be surprising if investors here emerged as net buyers of global equities rather than sellers into this rally. Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 30 March, 2010
“I guess, I should warn you. If I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably mis-understood what I’ve said,” former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was fond of saying, when he controlled the Fed’s money spigots. For many Fed watchers, it was a great relief when “Easy” Al finally retired from the Fed, since there is nothing more vexing - than correctly interpreting Green-speak. Full Story
When Geithner states that they will do everything to make sure these institutions have the capital they need to function, he is basically stating that they are willing to use tax payer’s money to fund two worthless entities, instead of dismantling them. Trying to keep these agencies floating is akin to pouring money into a bottomless pit. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 30 March, 2010
As much as I scream in Loud Mogambo Outrage (LMO) about the sheer amount of money that is being created that will create horrendous inflation in prices, using whatever data that I can easily get my hands on or, better yet, falling into my lap, or, as a last resort, just making up facts and figures to prove my point, I may, for once in my over-the-top, obnoxious and irritating life (“The Way Of The Mogambo (TWOTM)”), be understating the case! Understating it! Full Story
(Editor’s note: We wrote here yesterday that mortgage forgiveness would crater the housing market to much greater depths, with homes ultimately falling 70% from their peak values. The following response, from “Donniemac,” was one of the more interesting posts in the Rick’s Picks forum. He sees signs of a recovery, but also the death of the America Dream for many chastened borrowers.) Full Story
When viewing the current market situation through a lens of inflationary policy vs. natural deflationary forces seeking to correct sublime levels of excess, a geek like me looks at the chart of the TNX and is absolutely transfixed. Full Story
"CHINA BUYS GOLD" is the story that all commodity journalists want to break, and the headline that gold bugs the world over most want to read. Because if (or when) the People's Bank of China shifts from quietly adding domestic mine output to its reserves...and starts buying gold bullion in the international market instead...the rapture of $5000 gold will be upon us. Full Story
Within the space of 24-hours we discover the Fed is still scared stiff (of deflation), the ECB is bailing out Greece (because deflation is already occurring), and the Japanese are doubling recent monetization efforts (because they have been deflating for decades), all pointing to a continuation of a highly accommodative stimulus disposition world wide. This is a large part of the reason stocks are enjoying a record advance, where now we also know why bonds look precarious moving forward, with US Treasuries center stage given a breakout from long-term resistance (see Figure 2) is in the making. Full Story
Damas, the largest jewelry chain in the Middle East is to close or relocate some of its 450 outlets as a part of a $870 million debt restructuring deal that follows in the wake of a record $3.7 million fine for violating corporate governance standards last week. Full Story
Although Bank of America has won praise from the news media for offering to reduce the mortgages of tens of thousands of underwater homeowners, Rick’s Picks readers were less kind in their assessment of the new relief program. One reader who posted in the forum saw it as an act of desperation – B of A’s only hope of keeping foreclosed assets from being liquidated at street value. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discussion and listener's questions. 2nd Hour: -Gerald Celente, The Trends Research Institute -Axel Merk, Merk Mutual Funds Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 28 March, 2010
For many years it was believed that the oil price had a direct impact on the gold price. Then the ‘credit crunch’ arrived, after the oil price had hit $145+ before tumbling to $35 a barrel. Since then the oil price has been treated as irrelevant to the gold price. We at Gold Forecaster believe it only had an indirect influence on the gold price in the first place. Full Story
When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market. Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets... Full Story
Everything continues to point to an impending correction. The change in character the last two days is also suggestive that something is different. Instead of opening lower and rising through the day, the market has been gapping up but closing lower. This is a complete about face from what has been happening over the last two months. Full Story
Although there’s a lot to not like about the reform (and more skeletons will emerge from the reform closet in the weeks and month ahead) and we’ll continue to hold out hope for the realization that less government is the solution to better, cheaper healthcare, we have to play the cards we were dealt. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 28 March, 2010
We are at a juncture where governments cannot really help like they could previously and in order to survive they will have to take care of themselves. For the moment they have neutralized a bankrupt banking system by creating enough liquidity to offset deflation. As demands grow the need for liquidity grows just to keep the insolvent system afloat. This approach is funding sovereign debt, but it is not allowing loans to small- and medium- sized businesses and individuals. The system’s worst days lie ahead. Take advantage of the interlude, it will be short lived. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 28 March, 2010
"Any explanation is better than none." And the simpler, it seems in the investment game, the better. "The markets went up because oil went down," we are told, except when it went up there was another reason for the movement of the markets. We all intuitively know that things are far more complicated than that. But as Nietzsche noted, dealing with the unknown can be disturbing, so we look for the simple explanation. Full Story
In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature, however, and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary. Full Story
I wish I could talk about the recent CFTC hearings in regards to position limits on metals in a more favourable light, but it seems all the build-up was for naught. There were too many opposed to limits and when it really comes down to it the powers that be are the ones who don’t want position limits, so there is a snowballs chance in hell of ever seeing any as far as I can see. Full Story
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