Funding for US national debt has just increased by $2.5 trillion. This is very similar to something that is far controversial and that is quantitative easing. Total US treasuries securities held by the Fed are between 2.4 to 2.5 trillion. They are holding this approximate level because they say they are not doing quantitative easing and rather doing purchases every time they take principal to keep at that level. This was major news and made headlines throughout the world, yet something just as big happened and nobody noticed; this is a forced funding of the federal debt that is just as large as what happened with QE. Full Story
Any coming pullback will be one of opportunity as it stands now, barring a complete undoing of the fundamentals that have gathered so firmly over the last several months. It is advised that gold sector aficionados have pullback levels (i.e. key support levels) plotted out in advance for when their favorite miners are inevitably traded out by the momentum players now buying in. That is what we will be doing. Full Story
What were the three most popular investments over the last month? If we’re judging by ETF inflows, the three areas that investors piled into were precious metals, government bonds, and low-volatility equities. Notably, it was gold ETFs that set a new record with their highest monthly inflows in eight years, as investors bought $7.8 billion of securities in February. This is according to the latest from market data company Markit, that also noted that inflows relative to assets under management (AUM) were equally as impressive. Full Story
I guess we'll just have to see what happens next. However, as we've maintained for years, all it will take is ONE delivery failure and the entire Bullion Bank confidence scheme will come crashing down. While this news today is not technically a delivery failure, all of this surging demand for gold certainly seems to be pushing The Banks to the brink. Full Story
Both gold and silver are so cheap relative to historical norms and historical valuations that it doesn’t matter if its overbought, it can stay overbought on a short term basis for a long time – longer than we can possibly expect. What’s important is not short term overbought or oversold indicators but what the trend is. And to me the trend is higher in both gold and silver. I’m measuring this by saying that gold is above all of its short term moving averages. Full Story
The black swans are circling like vultures now. Dark economic events seem to be flying in out of nowhere for those who have vision to see them. Even dovish New York Fed President William Dudley, who cannot tell the difference between money and hot air, sees a lot of black in the skies now and says that he is less confident about the economy than he was when he and his Feddish partners voted to raise interest rates last December. Full Story
Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it is easily divisible, easily transportable, has intrinsic value, is durable, and has consistent form around the world. And, as Doug Casey reminds us, it's a good form of money because governments can’t print it on a whim. You can't “Bernanke your way” to wealth with gold. Full Story
Oil bottomed out in February and, more importantly, it did not close below $30.00 on a monthly basis. Going forward for the outlook to remain positive, the same rule applies. Oil can trade below $30.00, and this will have no impact on the longer term outlook as long as it does not close below this level on a monthly basis. We are going look at oil in three different time frames and you will note that in all three, $30.00 represents an important price point, and this is why oil should not close below this level on a monthly basis, as former support will turn into resistance. Full Story
As you know by my past writings, I fully expect some sort of truth bomb to be dropped that pulls the rug out from under the dollar and thus the financial system in the West. The "truth" can be any one or all topics. Does the West have any gold of substance left? False flags or real terrorism? Is the West bankrupt financially? Is "it" real or is it fraud? No autopsy? Birth certificate? 911? I would even say since there are paper trails to almost all finance, do we have a Congress bought and paid for? Which brokers were involved? Audit the Fed? The Treasury? The bottom line is this, the whole thing is a PONZI scheme and people are beginning to sense this, what if a "truth bomb" proved this either directly ...or indirectly by making it fall? Full Story
1. Gold will not fall below US $1,100/oz 2. Gold will benefit from the imminent weakening of US equities 3. Gold will benefit from imminent currency market volatility 4. US dollar does not need to fall for gold to rise 5. Long-term view on gold remains bullish because of unresolved economic, financial and political issues facing the world, which will continue to drive long term investors towards gold 6. Gold equities typically offer exposure to gold at a greater discount often making them very attractive for investors. Full Story
The war on interest rates means that deflation will be here for longer than most expect, so it will be interesting to see how commodities in general, especially the precious metal’s sector hold up. Gold is off to a pretty good start, but it remains to be seen if a breakout past the strong zone of resistance at $1350. It needs to put in a pattern of higher lows which it has not managed to do since 2012. The next pullback will be interesting, for it leads to a higher low, and then this recent breakout might have some muscle behind it. Full Story
Bankers and politicians have proven they are incapable of shepherding that change. So, the system will foist chance on the politicians and bankers at some point … that’s the great thing about the laws of economics — man (bankers) can manipulate the system for a while, but the system, like nature, always self-corrects.
Gold, I assure you, will play a role in that correction. Paper assets will not. Full Story
The big thing for me is whether or not that heavy speculative long position will remain put or grow impatient and liquidate. As long as GLD stays firm it should limit the downside and keep prices within a consolidation pattern in spite of the imbalance in the futures market but if GLD shows any serious signs of drop in reported gold holdings, I would expect to see some of these longs head for the exits. Full Story
Uncertainty regarding the U.S. presidential election will likely aid gold. But gold’s outlook is bright whether Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or the Messiah himself or herself becomes President.
Gold’s fundamentals are positive given the very high degree of macroeconomic, monetary, geopolitical and systemic risk in the U.S. and indeed the world today. Full Story
Ironically, though, one of the latest monetary tools—negative interest rates—has been a boon to gold prices. As rates have dropped below zero in Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and elsewhere, and with speculation they could be introduced here in the U.S., many investors have moved into, or increased their exposure to, gold. The metal has historically served as a dependable store of value. Full Story
No doubt the financial and economic stresses are building. Without even looking at the various and very weak economic reports, talk of and implementation of "negative interest rates" should tell you all you need to know. We looked at this last G-20 meeting as a possible venue for some type of concerted action or even the announcement of some sort of re set or major change. Instead, they "publicly" agreed on nothing. Full Story
The astonishing strength behind the most recent rally in gold is known to all readers. Also, the reasons behind gold's change in fortune have been well documented by such writers as Michael Pento, Egon Von Greyerz, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, James Turk, Rick Rule and on this site by Clive. Hence, there is no need to discuss this here. Suffice it to say that the scale of the developing global financial and economic crisis has no historic precedent. Full Story
The US markets are in a quandary. On the one hand, some of the data (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) suggests the Fed should continue to hike rates. On the other hand, other data points (food stamp usage, labor participation rate) suggest the US never actually entered a real recovery. More importantly, how can the jobs data suggest such a strong employment situation… when one in seven Americans are on food stamps? Full Story
Zero Hedge published an article on Canadian Bullion Services (CBS) last week. Other sites ran similar articles. The common thread through these articles, and in the user comments section, is that CBS is committing criminal fraud. Or, if not, then it’s a conspiracy by the Canadian government to confiscate gold. Terms like fractional reserve and re-hypothecation were dusted off for the occasion. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 2 March, 2016
Investors need to realize that at some point, the highly leveraged Comex gold and silver paper trading exchange will no longer matter. Why, because future physical demand will totally overwhelm the paltry Comex precious metal inventories. This is not a question of “IF”, it’s only a question of “WHEN”. Full Story
For weeks we have been looking towards the 16 level as the point silver could be seen as breaking out. However, silver came right up to the line, but could not muster the strength to push forward. This past week, we saw silver break below our support of 14.80, which clearly is not a positive development. However, what we also know about silver is that it is the most volatile of the metals and often likes to come on strong from behind. You see, silver is the Secretariat of the metals world. Full Story
Silver, at this current time of writing, remains below $15.00 per ounce; it is sitting at $14.76. This price is absurdly cheap given the current state of the global economy and the uncertainty that the world now faces. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 1 March, 2016
Any gold-mining company on the hunt for more assets certainly wouldn't want the market to move up before the hunt was complete, just as some gold investors, figuring that the market is starting to turn back up, lately have been hoping for one more smashing of the price by central banks so investors can establish a better entry position. Full Story
Gold is currently trading in excess of $1200 an ounce. This is well above the 1980 all-time high. However, this is an incomplete representation of what gold is trading at relative to US dollars. When you look at the gold price relative to US currency in existence, then it is at its lowest value it has ever been. This is an example of how paper assets are completely out of tune with tangible (real assets). Full Story
Have you noticed? Stocks don’t go up anymore unless they announce a multi-billion dollar buyback program, and then the gains don’t last. What’s worse, it should be realized by investors that these buybacks will need to increasingly curtailed as stocks fall with the financialized economy so dependent on asset prices now. So while the high flyers like Amazon are still able to tap the credit markets to continue the Ponzi, as the rot of the collapsing colossus (better know as the economy) continues to spread, these types will be forced to cease this insanity as well, and then we see the true meaning of the term ‘liquidity trap’ applied to the stock market. Full Story
Since August of 2015, we've been following the decline in U.S. equities and marking the similarities to the previous market collapses of 2001 and 2008. We'd suggested last autumn that there was one, final indicator that we needed to see before issuing a final warning. Well, here you go. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 1 March, 2016
GDX has broken a long term downtrend line, and it’s clear that the technical situation is far from overbought. I believe that Chindian demand will enable GDX to become overbought, and stay that way for many years, regardless of what happens in the West. Full Story
The Fed is hell bent on forcing everyone to speculate, and that is why we have moved into the next stage of the currency war games; the era of negative interest rates. Negative rates will eventually force the most conservative of players to take their money out of the banks and speculate. This process will be akin to another massive stimulus and will provide the bedrock for another monstrous rally. Full Story
This move may well be the real deal, however, gold is technically overbought which suggests that a near term correction is on the cards. The speed and severity of the retracement will give us a clue as to golds strength. If gold can hold above its previous high of around $1180.00/oz then that would be a positive indication of better things to come. However, should it fall much further then we could see yet another test of the previous lows. Full Story
The advance of gold continues as the price action stays above the two year weekly channel that was breached for the first time a few weeks back. When this kind of event happens, technical analysts wait and see if what was formerly a line of price resistance becomes a line of price support. In the case of gold, that line has mostly held as the weekly closes have stayed above it. The current sideways action should break out to newer highs based on the next chart below, but expect a retest of the weekly channel line at $1,200 after this. Full Story
But there’s more exciting news involving gold. On the same day that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie endorsed Donald Trump for president, the precious metal received its own high-profile endorsement. In a note to investors, Deutsche Bank said it’s time to buy gold, writing: “Buying some gold as ‘insurance’ is warranted.” The bank also stated its opinion that gold “deserves to be trading at elevated levels versus many other assets.” Full Story
India has had many aspirations to overtake China, but this is more of a pipedream than reality. India’s corruption makes China’s corruption seem non-existent. Add in the traffic jams, and filth one has to deal with in parts of Mumbai and Delhi, and the allure of investing in India loses its appeal rather rapidly. This is the reason India continues to suffer such a massive amount of brain drain. Smart Indians understand that their best option is to seek greener pastures. Full Story
Something happened on the way to negative interest rates. Something unexpected. Gold and silver demand went through the roof. The first two months of business at USAGOLD were reminiscent of the 2009 run to gold. In London, where people have the additional concern of a potential exit from the European Union, investors were lining up around the block to purchase precious metals, and reports were circulating that “Some London banks are placing unusually large orders for physical gold.” For the first two months of the year, the U.S. Mint reported gold coin sales running double what they were for the same period in 2015. Full Story
Even though Gold did not continue higher this week, sentiment still seems to be dangerously elevated. Talk of $2,000 Gold and a new bull market has become common, and Gold seems ripe for a fall, at least in the short term. Don’t misinterpret my point – I see the evidence that a new bull market trend is developing, but that’s in the intermediate term. Shorter term, the current rally is approaching its limits. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 29 February, 2016
In July 1944, as allied troops were racing across Normandy to liberate Paris, delegates from 44 nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire - the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference - and agreed to “peg” their currencies to the U.S. dollar, the only currency strong enough to meet the rising demands for international currency transactions. Full Story
The markets are attempting to move higher this morning based on performance gaming from fund managers and little else. February was an abysmal month for most funds, so there is a concerted effort to get the market as high as possible before they have to report monthly results. Enter the ramp job of the last few days abetted by hopes of some new stimulus announcement at the weekend’s G20 summit. Full Story
The Federal Reserve states that its goal is to promote employment and economic growth while regulating inflation. As if it is as simple as pulling levers, tweaking a few knobs and dialing up just the right amount of inflation per unit of economic growth. The hubris and ego involved here is incredible. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, by a significant margin. Gold experienced its first “golden cross” in two years, as the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day. This week Georgette Boele from ABN Amro, who switched her gold outlook from bearish to bullish, noted that investors are now buying the metal on dips, rather than selling on rallies as they’ve done previously. Full Story
No measure has been more devastating to freedom from taxation than the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). The secret of its success is that the US fines banking institutions for not following the arbitrary FATCA guidelines. How can one country fine a bank in another country if that bank is following the laws of the country in which it’s located? Well, failure to pay the fine may result in the US cutting the bank out of international transfers in the SWIFT system, which would collapse the bank. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 February, 2016
The similarities to GATA's experience are obvious, perhaps most obvious in the scene in the movie scene where two of the unorthodox fund managers visit the headquarters of The Wall Street Journal at 1211 Avenue of the Americas in New York to pitch the story to a former college classmate who has become a reporter for the newspaper. The reporter declines to pursue the story, explaining that by doing so he would be putting himself, his family, and his job at risk to chase what he calls a mere "hunch." Full Story
The gold to silver ratio is showing us that the junior money is getting cheaper relative to the senior money. It is showing us that the metal which has industrial demand as well as monetary is falling relative to the metal whose demand is entirely monetary. It is also showing us that tightening credit conditions are starting to matter. So far as silver is concerned, credit conditions today match those which existed in October 2008. Full Story
The idea that people can stop working in their fifties or sixties and then enjoy 20+ years of relative leisure is actually quite new. For most of human history, the vast majority of people worked as long as they were physically able to – and died soon after. Retirement is possible now only because those other 20th-century innovations accelerated the division of labor and lifted us out of subsistence farming and living. Full Story
Bill Murphy from GATA.org says the gold cartel has lost the ability to suppress price due in part to record physical demand. The HUI advanced as much as 70% in merely six weeks. Fed officials and their BOJ / EU colleagues have turned markedly dovish, sending a signal to investors of the potential opportunity in the PMs market. Chris welcomes back Monty Guild of Guild Investment - his sources insist that China is accumulating huge gold reserves under the table at deep discounts. Canada and many other countries have sold much of their gold reserve stockpiles to raise funds. The myopic decision will backfire, ultimately requiring the repurchase of gold reserves at much higher prices. Full Story
In the latest Gold and Silver Market updates, posted last weekend, the view was expressed that an intermediate top was forming gold and silver, not a bull Flag as some were suggesting, and the latest COT data not only confirms this view, but suggests that a severe drop is imminent, and it already started in silver on Friday. Fortunately we exited most of our long positions in the sector, many at a handsome profit, over the past 2 weeks, having spotted the danger. Full Story
Please notice the amount of credit being used to carry stocks now is significantly larger than it was at previous market tops in 2000 and 2007. Also, the amount of credit has begun to contract, this is a classic margin call being met ...so far. The danger of course is as it always has been when margin builds like this. As the equity market pulls back, margin calls are issued and in some cases "forced sales" are done. This can, has in the past and most likely will occur and morph into a virtual loop where forced sales weaken prices, creating new margin calls and more forced sales in a negative feedback loop...otherwise known as a market panic. Full Story
Mining silver and gold is a tough business. In order to mine either of these products (money) you need a steady stream of capital into your operation. As we have reported on a number of occasions throughout 2015, and into 2016, that capital is drying up or has left the market completely. This has been causing stress and strain within the mining industry, but not like you might think. Full Story
The rebound in the US$ index coupled with the failure of Gold and gold miners at resistance over the past three days puts us on guard for the start of a larger retracement in precious metals. The potential double top in the Yen/US$ pair as well as the mini breakdowns in Silver and Platinum are also cause for concern. It is certainly possible that precious metals can rally temporarily with a strong US$ and reach the upside targets mentioned last week. However, a strong breakout in the US$ index above 100 could very well precipitate the next correction in Gold and gold stocks if it has not already started. Full Story
While gold is correcting by consolidating sideways, silver is delivering a recognizable move into a daily cycle low. As usual, retail traders are getting bearish when they should be getting bullish. Full Story
Stocks ended the week not doing much and remaining in a very overbought range. I remain quite short of some leading stocks and we did see several failed breakouts Friday which does point to some retracement which would be great, for me. We can chop sideways and consolidate to work off this overbought reading but it hasn’t yet happened so I’m looking to cover my shorts near cost if we do chop, or at a profit preferably, if we do correct. Full Story
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