By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 2 January, 2015
The seemingly-invincible US stock markets powered higher again last year, still directly fueled by the Fed’s epic quantitative-easing money printing. But 2015 is shaping up to be radically different from the past couple years. The Fed effectively abandoned the stock markets when it terminated its bond buying late last year. So this year we will finally see if these lofty stock markets can remain afloat without the Fed. Full Story
As 2015 begins I’d like to briefly follow up on my most recent article in which I discussed the oversold condition in the miners. Breadth indicators as well as technical indicators (such as distance from the 200-day moving average) showed the miners reaching an extreme oversold condition in November and nearly again only a few weeks ago. Miners essentially were at their third most oversold point since 2001. The other two were during the 2008 financial crisis and during Gold’s spring collapse in 2013. The current oversold condition combined with the failure of most indices to make new lows in December could be the setup for a first quarter rebound. Full Story
Rather like the oil price crash, the rise and rise of the US dollar was the surprise event of 2014 that every forecaster under the sun now thinks will be the theme of 2015. The consensus often being wrong in investment for well documented reasons, there is clearly reason enough to question this ‘no brainer’ as HSBC’s chief economist has described it. Full Story
One of the most striking things about the Colder War—as I explore in my new book of the same name—has been the contrast between the peevish tone of the West’s leaders compared to the more grown-up and statesmanlike approach that Putin is taking in international affairs. Western leaders and their unquestioning media propagandists appear to believe that diplomatic relations are some kind of reward for good behavior. But it’s actually more important to establish a constructive dialogue with your enemies or rivals than your friends, because that’s where you need to find common ground. Indeed, it’s been the basis for diplomacy since time immemorial. Full Story
2015 is here and the country that adopted me, Panama is once again projected to have very good economic growth. The IMF is predicting GDP growth of 6.4% while the World Bank is predicting GDP growth of 7%. If you hear projections like that it makes you think that Panama can be untouchable. The Panama economy is not alone in being predicted to have good economic growth in 2015. Here is the break down of both the IMF numbers and the World Bank numbers. Full Story
So Baby 2015 has slammed the book on wrinkled old 2014 (this imagery just cracks me up), a year that featured the continuation of existing macro trends like US stocks up, global stocks wobbling, precious metals weak and commodities weak to tanking. Full Story
The “year that was” brought mostly disappointment to precious metals bulls. Silver prices fell for the third straight year, while gold mostly flat-lined around the $1,200 per-ounce level. So what about the year to come? On the one hand, the charts look ugly. On the other, it is rare for any metal to fall in price four years in a row. Full Story
I had my doubts as to whether the market could break through 2100 on the first try, and Friday’s move has probably confirmed that it is not going to happen. With the market starting down into a half cycle low, along with an upcoming earnings season, ECB decision on QE (Jan. 22), and Greek vote (Jan. 25), I expect the stage is probably set for the market to chop sideways underneath 2100 for most of January before a brief breakout late in the month. Full Story
Zero Hedge tonight reports correspondence between Florida resident James W. Lovely and his U.S. representative, Dennis A. Ross, prompted by Lovely's concern about surreptitious trading in U.S. futures markets by central banks, trading confirmed by the U.S. government records disclosed three months ago through Zero Hedge by the founder of the Winnetka, Illinois, market research firm Nanex, Eric Scott Hunsader. Full Story
It looked like a few rats tried to jump ship as the bell rang on 2014. But it is hard to trust any one day or week as a guide during the holidays so we can just call it what it was, a down week within a general US market uptrend. The strong uptrend however, is on the longer-term charts. Some dailies are in down trends kicked off by the pre-Santa correction (ref. the NDX below and the NYSE, as two examples). As we noted in NFTRH, the Russell 2000 was the first to go daily trend up into what is often ‘small cap season’. It has got a big fat gap though, and a test of the MA 50 seems in store. Full Story
As natural resource investors take stock of their 2014 portfolio shifts and make adjustments for 2015, The Gold Report quizzed top experts in the sector on what resolutions they are making and—perhaps more important—what steps they are taking to make sure they will stick to the hard choices they have vowed. We want to know if you are taking the same steps, have your own plan to make the most of whatever happens in the sector or just plain disagree. Please use the comment section to let us know what you will be investing in as we bravely face a new year. Full Story
The Brent crude oil price has fallen from $115 in June to under $58 per barrel as of December 30, 2014. A lower oil price is where production costs make all the difference. For a long time, analysts have suggested that US production is substantially more expensive and therefore sensitive to oil prices. This is where the rubber meets the road, as the coming months may reveal the extent of fragility, waste, or mismanagement within the oil industry — in the US and globally. Full Story
Below is a gold chart I worked on this weekend. It has a lot of information on it to digest. First thing to note is the top rail of the black falling wedge. As you can see the top rail comes in around the 1215 to 1220 area. Not that it means anything but the two black rectangles are exactly the same size that measures time and price for the rectangle on top and our current triangle below. If our current triangle plays out as a halfway pattern, I have it measured using the BO to BO and the impulse method with the price objectives at the bottom of the chart. Full Story
Buffett points to saving fees and the inability of fund managers to beat the indices as the chief reasons for his decision, but one wonders if there might be more to it than that. Since the 2008 meltdown and the subsequent bailouts things have changed considerably on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve. Interest Rate Observer's James Grant attempted to define the complicated change in the stock market's monetary underpinnings in a speech this past November before the Cato Institute. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 31 December, 2014
According to global market data from the top Official Mints, sales of Silver Eagles originate overwhelmingly from public retail investment demand rather than by one large bank… such as JP Morgan. I say this in response to the allegation put forth by silver analyst, Ted Butler who believes JP Morgan purchased half of all Silver Eagles since April, 2011. Full Story
In Poker, to go all in means to bet everything you have. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that, at least so far as the mainstream audience is concerned, we gold advocates have gone all in. We have made one argument: we should adopt the gold standard, because inflation. By inflation, it is generally meant rising consumer prices (this is not my definition), again at least so far as the mainstream audience goes. Full Story
Based upon most of the patterns I am tracking on the metals charts, it is not highly likely that the long-term lows have yet been seen in the metals and most mining stocks. That being said, I am still searching for a high probability pattern that is going to imminently take us there. Full Story
Another week – another CFTC report – more of the same, namely the large speculative category, hedge funds and other reportable traders, continue their love affair with crude oil. This, in spite of the fact that the black goo has lost 50% of its price since June of this year. I have said now for the last few weeks and will say it once more, I am completely mystified and baffled as to how the supposedly smartest and most informed traders on the planet could have gotten this market so wrong. Not only that, but that they continue to stay wrong! Full Story
I'm still on vacation, but too much is going on to take a minute off - much less, a week. Moreover, once this article is posted, I will officially have not missed a single day this year - following a similar "writing percentage" last year. Sometime soon - perhaps very soon - the need to write so voluminously will dramatically decline - as either the entire world will be buying gold and silver hand over fist, or none will be available for the "99%" that haven't already done so. Full Story
In this article we are going to look at compelling evidence that the Precious Metals sector is either at or very close to a major bottom, and see why the chances are high that the sector will rally strongly in the New Year. You have all heard the old adages about “buying low and selling high” and how the time to buy is when there is “blood running in the streets”. Never have these adages been more applicable than they are now to the Precious Metals sector, where even the most diehard bulls have had enough and thrown in the towel. Full Story
Loyal readers of our Investor Alert and my blog Frank Talk are no doubt aware that the U.S. dollar’s rising strength has put pressure on commodities such as oil and gold. I wrote about this as recently as my roundup of the top commodities stories of 2014, which you can read here. Gold took a blow in the second half of 2014 as a result of the dollar’s ascent, and sentiment toward the yellow metal right now is less than ideal. But to keep things in perspective, its performance this year has far outpaced that of 2013, when it fell 28 percent—its worst showing since early into President Reagan’s first term. Full Story
When the bail-in first ripped through Cyprus in the first part of 2013, I wrote a series of articles about the topic and examined some documents from the Bank for International Settlements, the FDIC and Bank of England regarding treatment of depositors and their funds. To sum it up as we begin the latest chapter in what will no doubt morph into the biggest swindle ever to impact humankind, let’s recap what exactly the bail-in is. Full Story
Gold is ending the year on a solid note. The bears promised that 2014 would be a horrible year for gold. Many bank economists predicted “double digit declines”. None of their shrill predictions have come to pass. That’s because the gold bears overestimated supply from the West, and demand from China and India. That’s the hourly bars chart for gold. I believe there is now an inverse head and shoulders bottom in play, and the short term price target of that pattern is the $1220 area. Full Story
Debt is a rock, and spending reform is a hard place. The taxpayers of today and tomorrow are saddled with crushing obligations. Yet we must watch helplessly as leadership in Washington DC continues expanding government -- borrowing what they can and simply printing what they cannot. Each day more Americans sense a reckoning is coming. Our government is increasingly insolvent. The unbacked dollar is certain to be worth less, and it may not survive at all. Full Story
What will it take for Bitcoin to gain broad adoption and become the foundation of a new global financial system? Worth Wray sat down with Barry Silbert, founder of the Bitcoin Investment Trust, to discuss. As one the most active venture capitalists in the industry (with investments in over 30 Bitcoin-related portfolio companies through the Bitcoin Opportunity Corp.), Barry has gone all-in on Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related businesses. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 30 December, 2014
One step up, two steps back: that’s how gold has cruelly “played” bulls since peaking near $1900 in 2011. One of these days, when the accustomed bull-trap rally seems to have lost its ability to rekindle even a faint flicker of hope in long-term investors, the bottom will be in. For now, though, we should treat each new uphtrust as a sucker’s bet, buying only at pullback targets or on minor, impulsive breakouts. An uncorrected thrust exceeding 1256.20 over the next couple of weeks would dramatically change the picture, but until such time as that happens, we should view gold’s daily ups and (mostly) downs with clinical detachment and just a dash of cynicism. Full Story
One of the reasons why I think Gold might break upwards is because US Dollar rally is overstretched and overbought. Another reason is because Gold Mining shares are incredibly oversold, recently trading as far as 30% below its 200 day moving average. These producers also sit on an important support zone, where market participants have a strong memory of buying. Upside surprise is possible during early parts of 2015. Full Story
Whereas total returns for the S&P 500 Index and 10-Year Treasury bond stayed relatively stable throughout the year, commodities and the U.S. dollar both made an incredible about-face starting around late June, early July. If you don’t factor in China’s renminbi using purchasing power parity, the dollar is the world’s strongest currency. As I’ve written about on multiple occasions, this has weighed heavily on the commodities we track very closely and report on here at U.S. Global Investors, especially gold and crude oil. Full Story
By: Ira Epstein, The Linn Group - 29 December, 2014
For the moment, gold is caught in no man’s land. It has a downside bias caused by prices trading on both the Daily and Weekly Charts under their respective 18-Day and 18-Week Moving Average of Closes. Crude oil, gasoline and heating oil continue to decline. This decline is bearish gold as its impact on consuming countries is deflationary. Full Story
Dr. Paul shares his views on gold repatriation, examining the question: "Is the gold stockpile at Fort Knox / West Point / NY Fed still there and is it unencumbered?" China is home to not only the world's largest economy but unlike most of its peers (excluding Russia), continues to accumulate gold, not lease it. Why didn't the Bundesbank and it's people protest when the Fed balked on returning their gold, just as a new potential threat emerged in Ukraine? Dr. Paul examines alternative hypotheses and concludes that global / domestic debt is the true culprit threatening every global inhabitant. Full Story
A couple of weeks ago, a long time subscriber correctly pointed out that I seemed to be speculating more than usual in my conclusion that JPMorgan was the big buyer of Silver Eagles and had accumulated as many as 300 million oz of silver, including Eagles and bullion. The subscriber noted that I usually relied on hard core facts that could be documented and not on speculation. As it turns out, I believe there are sufficient number of hard facts behind my speculation, but I had failed to point them out. So let me present the facts, as I see them, that point to JPMorgan having amassed the largest physical silver position in history. Full Story
This past year was jam packed with news of all sorts. Some was surprising, some of it was expected, while other news seemed to either be another dot to connect or an outlier dot to be connected later. We even got news from time to time which even in today's world could be considered bizarre or surreal. Suffice it to say, were we receiving the current news of today just 15 years back, the financial and social worlds would have been in outright panic. Not so today, the sheep are sound asleep even while a few well intending herders are sounding the alarm. Full Story
This piece could have been entitled ‘betting on insanity’ as easily as ‘banking’, because the theme centers on how gambling is not just distraction for the idiots anymore, it has gone systemic in our society today. However, considering who is primarily responsible for this mess, it seems appropriate. Because if there’s any one group that should be blamed for what is about to happen to the world, the wholesale financial collapse that is on our doorstep, it’s the bankers – those creatures from Jekyll Island. Full Story
Asia is wonderful, but I have to confess: it isn't easy for me to get into the holiday spirit over here. It isn't that Asia doesn't try hard. From Japan to Jakarta, Asians have embraced the commercial symbols of Christmas in a big way. Stores and shopping malls are decorated with Christmas trees and holiday lights, all the stores play “Silent Night” and “Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer,” and a child won't have any problem finding a Santa that’s happy to listen to his wish list. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 December, 2014
On its "Geo-Economics" program this month, Russia's biggest television network, Russia 24, interviewed your secretary/treasurer and former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts about gold and commodity market rigging by Western governments. The interview with your secretary/treasurer took place while he was in Munich, Germany, to address a meeting of the German Precious Metal Society and the Foundation for Liberty and Ratio. Full Story
With all the volatility surrounding global currencies during the back half of the year, it is important to point out why investors hold gold. Aside from the dollar, gold has been the best performing currency in 2014. For those who hold most of their assets in dollars, the beauty of gold may go unnoticed. However, for those in Russia who just saw half of their wealth disappear with the depreciation in the ruble, the benefits of gold are clear. This year provided investors with the perfect case study for highlighting the importance of gold. Full Story
In our opinion no speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. The USD Index moved slightly above the key, long-term resistance level but gold rallied by almost $20 on Friday. We have seen several bearish signs in the precious metals market recently – is the above bullish enough to make the overall outlook for the precious metals market bullish? Full Story
Negatives outweigh the positives in assessing the outlook for the global economy in 2015 despite the best efforts of the Wall Street propaganda machine to convince us otherwise. The disconnect between US share prices at all-time highs and the economic outlook is the most obvious danger ahead in global financial markets. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 29 December, 2014
In the past, Rick’s Picks has shunned year-end predictions because there are far too many variables to handicap accurately. I’ve decided to take a crack at it anyway this year because I was curious to see what conclusions purely technical analysis would yield for some widely followed issues. I’m no seer, just a chartist, and I’ll say up front that the question of whether the Dow Industrials are trading at 23,000 at the end of 2015, or at 14,000, is probably no better than a coin-toss bet. Full Story
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