In its outlook for 2018, Thomson Reuters GFMS analysts see gold prices rising to $1,500 an ounce sometime this year on inflation fears. This would put gold at a level unseen since April 2013. According to Thomson Reuters, the price appreciation could be driven by “concerns that the United States may pull out of NAFTA,” or the North American Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA, of course, is the trade pact the U.S. shares with Canada and Mexico, its number two and three largest trading partners. Full Story
Global investors are radically underinvested in gold today. Years of relentless stock-market rallying to endless new record highs have left this classic alternative investment deeply out of favor. But this gold-demand ebb is ending. The same central banks that fueled these extreme stock markets through epic easing are reversing to massive and unprecedented tightening. As stocks roll over, gold investment will return. Full Story
Gold and silver, ESPECIALLY SILVER, are undervalued and unappreciated in 2018. Attention goes to new highs in the Dow, NASDAQ, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The U.S. stock market has risen for nine years, while silver has fallen for seven years. A reversal is due and may have occurred by the time you read this, or it may occur later in 2018. Full Story
Former Goldman Sachs, senior technical analyst, Charles Nenner of Charles Nenner Research Center, rejoins the show. As long as the Dow Jones Industrials Average maintains support above 23,000, the remarkable multi year share rally should continue. Their proprietary software yields precise price entries / exits for gold. 2018 could be a spectacular year for the PMs sector - their models suggest a gold price of $2,500, nearly twice the current price. Full Story
The U.S. Government is in serious trouble when interest rates rise. As interest rates rise, so will the amount of money the U.S. Government will have to pay out to service its rapidly rising debt. Unfortunately, interest rates don’t have to increase all that much for the government’s interest expense to double. Full Story
The blockchain has discovered gold (or gold has discovered the blockchain). Either way, this means several things. First, the decades-long dream of a gold-backed cybercurrency may finally be realized. Second, gold and probably silver are looking at a big new source of physical demand. Third, the huge number of gold-related initial coin offerings (ICOs) in this largely unregulated pipeline will require buyers to learn how to tell the legitimate offerings from the scams. Full Story
While I would love to suggest that the market is ready to break out in a big way, I still have no clear indications that is the case just yet. And, this comes more so from the GDX than either of the metals themselves. So, I am going to focus on the GDX in this update. Full Story
April Gold, most immediately the one shown at 1373.10 (see inset). Odds that it will be achieved within the next couple of days would shorten significantly if buyers are able to push easily past the 1354.30 midpoint resistance. At the close of Wednesday’s regular session, buyers were stalled precisely at that number, but the shallow pullback so far is encouraging. A higher target of larger degree at 1394.20 that was first broached here a month ago still looks very likely to be achieved. Full Story
The big news this week was the filing of charges and settlements for price manipulation and “spoofing” brought by the CFTC, in conjunction with the DOJ and FBI, against three banks and a half dozen individual traders; mostly involving illegal trading activities in COMEX gold and silver futures. The announcement set off a debate about whether the filing proved the allegations that gold and silver prices were manipulated as many, certainly including me, have maintained. Full Story
Most price forecasts aren’t worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables and dynamics, that even the most educated guess almost always ends up wrong. Further, some forecasts base their predictions on one issue. “Interest rates will rise so gold will fall.” That’s not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction (it’s the real rate that affects gold prices—the rate minus inflation). Full Story
Have you ever seen this much gold in one place? In this video, Mike Maloney shows the remarkable images coming out of Russia that are evidence of their recent surge in gold reserves. What do they see coming? Is this a subtle challenge to Fort Knox and their ongoing lack of transparency? Full Story
Point is: anything can happen. Powell could rip rates, or the Dow could puke 500 points about a dozen more times, the economic data could roll over, and we could be talking about rate cuts. Twenty years ago, the Fed was a source of volatility. Intermeeting rate moves, 50bp moves all over the place. Now, the Fed is a source of stability. What if stability turns into volatility… monetary policy suddenly becomes unpredictable… forward guidance stops, or becomes faulty? Full Story
This article is in 3 parts and covers a) upcoming trade reporting in the London gold market which is being led by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), b) the recent publication by the LBMA of a Guide to the London OTC precious metals markets, and c) an update on monthly vault reporting which the LBMA and the Bank of England launched in 2017. Full Story
Cryptocurrencies are not anonymous and they are not decentralized, period. This is to say nothing of the dangers they pose as being “pirate money” that can create real world problems for a persons life. If you don’t believe me simply ask Randall Lord, Ross Ulbricht or anyone that has had their “wallet” hacked or stolen on any number of exchanges where cryptocurrencies are bought and sold. Whom can they turn when the wallet is drained of 100% of it’s contents? Full Story
Sometimes I wonder if the Fed is just toying with the financial media and economic analysts. The Fed’s constant threat to raise rates and unwind its balance sheet seems to be taken seriously by most commentators. Even the few analysts I respect, like David Stockman, include the assumption the Fed will reduce its balance sheet by a few hundred billion per year. Full Story
John Scurci, head of Corona Associates Capital Management, outlines his view on the financial markets in 2018. The US Greenback struggled throughout 2017; investors should expect the theme to persist in the new year with profound implications for investors. US equities are priced for a perfect world scenario, which may lead to considerable disappointment in 2018, as shares follow the inevitable pull of gravity, returning to the mean as inflation returns as a key financial narrative. Full Story
It’s been called a number of things: The sharing economy, or “shareconomy.” Peer-to-peer economy. Collaborative consumption. What all of these terms have in common is the idea of decentralization—and blockchain applications, including bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, are just the latest in a trend toward this new economic paradigm. Full Story
Metals market analyst Lawrie Williams, writing yesterday for London bullion dealer Sharps Pixley, notes that manipulation of the monetary metals markets by big banks is becoming more evident, what with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission imposing fines this week on three European banks and the U.S. Justice Department bringing criminal charges against eight traders at the banks. Full Story
We firmly believe, and have stated a number of times, that gold and silver are the only assets that have the fortitude to stand up to governments and banks. These two assets, throughout history, have over and over and over again helped the people to gain wealth, to prosper and to truly innovate new technologies. What has happened over the past 100+ years is our wealth, innovation and sovereignty have been slowly stripped away. Full Story
These "risks" will help further drive down the value of the US dollar. A falling dollar will, in turn, spark a continued rally in commodities. Active money managers will seek to allocate assets toward the commodity sector and away from overvalued sectors such as equities and bonds. This soon creates a virtuous cycle of higher highs and higher lows as the renewed bull market is perceived and grudgingly accepted. Full Story
There is no real secret to the market. In fact, it is rather simple. But, that does not mean the specific smaller degree moves in the market will be just as simple. You see, markets are no different wherever you look. Whether that be metals, equities, Forex, crypto-currencies, etc, they all react in the exact same way. Markets simply move from one extreme to another. And, we need to be able to identify where those extremes can cause a turn. Full Story
What does all this mean? In a nutshell, crazy stuff has been happening under the placid surface of the fixed income market. None of the three bonds profiled here are especially good bets, and retiree and pension fund portfolios are full of similarly toxic paper. When a few such deals blow up – as bubble assets always eventually do – investors will start wondering what’s going to blow up next. And they’ll find not just a few but many, many bad ideas lurking in their “low risk” accounts. Full Story
The bearish case for gold continues as fresh new bearish confirmations have just emerged. You have already read about gold’s huge weekly volume, gold stocks’ underperformance and many other factors. Yesterday’s session provides us with even more bearish details. But, there’s one thing that looks promising for gold bulls – the possibility of a big and sharp decline in the stock market. Some expect money coming out of the stock market to flow into precious metals, thus pushing their prices higher. As much as we love gold (and silver even more) as a very long-term investment, in today’s analysis, we dismiss the above stock-based hope. Full Story
Many are the metaphors used to describe the agent that initiates a major crisis. Light the fuse, or pull the trigger, pull the rug out from under the room, or pull on the string for unraveling the sweater, these are commonly heard. What comes soon is the Bonfire of the Vanities, a term the Jackass prefers since irony is thick. Hardly the burning of objects deemed as tempting toward occasions of sin as in the 15th Century. In the present-day case, the burning would be of the massive piles of paper assets the US Federal Reserve has been illicitly supporting for the past several years. Full Story
Technically and fundamentally, gold is poised to resume its magnificent rally that is taking investors into what I call a “bull era”. The next FOMC meeting announcement is tomorrow. I expect the Fed to strongly signal more rate hikes and ramped up quantitative easing. There’s an outside chance that bank deregulation is addressed, but that’s likely going to happen in the next meeting. Full Story
Last week the Senate confirmed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman by a vote of 84-13. This is in contrast to the contentious debates and closer votes over Janet Yellen’s confirmation in 2014 and Ben Bernanke’s confirmation for a second term in 2010. Powell benefited from a perception that the economy’s recovery from the 2007-08 meltdown proves that the Fed is a capable manager of monetary policy. However, the perceptions of economic recovery and Federal Reserve competence are both far from the truth. Full Story
The traditional phrase “worth your weight in gold” has been used since Roman times, and is a well-known saying signifying that someone or something is very valuable, helpful, or to be treasured. But taken literally, what ‘value’ would a person be worth if they were worth their own weight in gold? For a given gold price, the answer not surprisingly depends on the person’s weight, so a more suitable and relevant question might be what value would an average person be worth if they were worth their weight in gold? Full Story
This video explores the possibility that stocks are currently giving us a brief pull back before the next powerfully rising intermediate cycle begins. Full Story
As we discussed in When Currency Becomes Corrupt… once a nations currency crosses the threshold from sound honest money – backed by gold and silver – and becomes a dishonest free floating fiat currency, backed by “faith and credit” the entire system, government, economy, banking and financial, must follow suit in order to hide the lie the currency is telling. Beginning in 1913 this is exactly what happened to the U.S. dollar when it morphed into the Federal Reserve Note. This corruption is now on full display in our everyday lives. Full Story
Those wanting a glimpse into the future of our federal government’s finances should have a gander at Illinois. The state recently “resolved” a high-profile battle over its budget. Taxpayers were clubbed with a 32% hike in income taxes in an effort to shore up massive underfunding in public employee pensions, among other deficiencies. Full Story
The world’s two largest silver mines have seen their productivity decline substantially due to falling ore grades and rising costs. Gone are the days when silver mines could produce silver at 15-20 ounces per ton. Today, the Primary Silver Mining Industry is likely producing silver at an average yield of 4-5 ounces per ton. Full Story
Two big themes last week at Inside ETFs, the Comic-Con of exchange-traded funds attended by more than 2,300 advisors and investors, were innovation and disruption. Like all other industries, the investing world has seen its fair share of disruption in the past quarter-century—think indexing, passive investing, the rise of robo-allocation and now blockchain and cryptocurrencies. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the first ever ETF, and today total ETF assets top $3 trillion. Full Story
What about "ENGAGED IN A SCHEME TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF PRECIOUS METALS FUTURES CONTRACTS" is vague or open to interpretation? Not much. However, those who have based their careers and cash flow upon the notion that the precious metal markets are sacrosanct, free and fair just got themselves a cold slap of reality. Full Story
Precious metals sector is on major buy signal. Cycle is up, suggesting that the multi-month correction is now complete. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, up 1.68 percent. Gold traders remain bullish on the yellow metal for a third week on sustained dollar weakness, according to the Bloomberg weekly survey. The gold price heads toward its highest since August 2016, soaring above $1,350 this week. Full Story
Jim, you're a very well-traveled individual who has his finger on the pulse of what's going on, not just here in the states, but around the world. I know you were just in Europe. Is complacency an issue all over the globe or is it just a Western World thing or an American thing? What are people thinking and doing in other parts of the world? I know that's a pretty broad question, but just speak to complacency and what others are doing here to protect themselves for what may be coming. Full Story
Rates continue to rise, though stocks remain oblivious. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury continues to soar, with a confirmed breakout from its 10-year downtrend. Now, cynics would ask, “why does this matter? The yield is at the same level as it was in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014.” It matters because throughout this time period, corporates and governments were adding debt. Corporations added $2.3 trillion in debt during this time period: an amount equal to the GDP of the United Kingdom. Full Story
The changes to US taxes that were approved late last year have drawn acclaim and criticism, but in most cases both those who view the tax changes positively and those who view the tax changes negatively are missing two important points. Most criticism of the tax changes boils down to one of three issues. The first is that the tax cuts favour the rich. This is true, but any meaningful tax cut will have to favour the people who pay most of the tax. Full Story
To say that gold’s weekly volume was big is like to say that snails are not the fastest animal. You can't say that it’s a lie, but it doesn't really convey the entire truth, either. Gold’s weekly volume was highest EVER. Yes, ever. There was not a single week – not ever during the 2011 top or when gold declined in 2008 – when gold moved on volume that was higher than what we saw last week. Full Story
Economist Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, returns with positive insights on the PMs sector noting that investors should consider increasing their PMs stockpile. CEO Thomas Coughlin, Andrew Maguire, join the show in an epic-exclusive Goldseek.com Radio conference call that takes place simultaneously on three continents. The paradigm-shifting, gold backed digital-currency has strong interest from deep pocket investors. Funds in Sharia-compliant communities / nations, where usury is a major issue. Full Story
The longstanding challenge for central banks and governments is to discourage interest in gold's return -- silver's too -- as money competing with their own currencies. Hence the ever-increasing issuance of paper claims to metal that doesn't exist, the fractional-reserve gold and silver banking system. As long as enough investors are content to own metal that is unallocated and only imaginary, metal that is only a claim against a bullion bank or a central bank, central banks and governments can keep real metal's price under control. Full Story
The key message of this update is that gold is getting closer and closer to breaking out of a giant Head-and-Shoulders base pattern that started to form back in the middle of 2013 and to point out that it won’t be stopped from doing so by any minor short-term reaction, especially as the dollar has just broken down from a giant top pattern and looks set to plummet, notwithstanding any near-term rally to alleviate its oversold condition. Full Story
Gold and gold stocks have enjoyed an excellent rebound since their December lows. Over the past six weeks Gold rebounded from a low of $1238 all the way to $1365 in recent days. The miners meanwhile rebounded nearly 18% (GDX) and 21% (GDXJ). However, these markets are approaching important resistance levels and at a time when sentiment is becoming stretched and the US Dollar has become very oversold. Full Story
Of course GATA hasn't been the only one to complain about manipulation of the monetary metals markets. More and more people are complaining about it every day. But GATA has been the only one to complain about and document this manipulation since January 1999, nearly 20 years, through uptrends and downtrends alike for the monetary metals, and giving trading advice and making money have not been the organization's objectives. Full Story
Fictitious Wall Street villain Gordon Gekko famously declared, “Greed is good.” I think actual Wall Street titans would mostly disagree. They would change one word. Instead of “greed,” they would say, “Growth is good.” That is Wall Street’s real mantra. Growth is the magic elixir we all need. Full Story
With the rally continuing to power higher in the stock markets I’m going to update the portfolio combo charts so you can see how this once is a lifetime rally in unfolding. When this impulse move finally burns itself out we will get a decent sized correction that may take a year or two build out. Until then the hardest thing for most investors riding this bull is to hang on for dear life. Full Story
The leverage in the economic system has become so extreme; investors have no idea of the disaster that is going to take place during the next stock market crash. The collapse of the U.S. Housing and Investment Banking Industry in 2008 and ensuing economic turmoil was a mere WARM-UP for STAGE 2 of the continued disintegration of the global financial and economic system. Full Story
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