We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately. As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 2 October, 2015
First, somebody is massively short gold in the fractional-reserve gold banking system. The short position is probably shared between central banks, bullion banks, mining companies, and ordinary investors. A sudden spectacular rise in the gold price could destroy some of those institutions and people, unless force majeure could be declared to nullify their obligations or government agreed to assume them. There would be immense legal difficulties there. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 2 October, 2015
Traders today universally believe inflation is dead, that there is no persistent decline in the purchasing power of money. That’s what government price indexes around the world are indicating. But this false notion is one of recent years’ main Fed-conjured illusions. Price inflation is the result of rising money supplies, and they have been skyrocketing. Serious risks are mounting that they will spill into price levels. Full Story
Well, now we know why they aggressively and blatantly tried to push gold as low as possible this week. Is this the best they got? I am not going to discuss the actual details of what was reported in today’s NFP (non-farm payroll report). This serves no purpose other than to imbue the numbers that were reported with some sense of legitimacy. The numbers are a fairytale and I’m not in the business of engaging in a debate over the “finer points” of fantasy-derived fiction. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Pierre Gave, and Charles Gave - 2 October, 2015
There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession. Full Story
It was the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2011. Stocks around the world dropped too. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks 85% of global stocks, also had its worst quarter since 2011. The STOXX Europe 600 Index, which tracks 600 of Europe’s largest companies, fell 10%. It was the worst quarter for European stocks since 2011 as well. Full Story
The People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) has added 16 tonnes of gold to its official reserves now totalling 1,694 tonnes in August 2015. The gain in August is the third monthly increment in a row after a period of silence by the PBOC since 2009. The change in reporting, the amounts reported and the fact the gold is mark-to-market is a clear sign of a strategy not merely aimed at SDR acceptance. More so to prepare for a post-dollar international monetary system. Full Story
Two months ago the precious metals complex became extremely oversold and ripe for a rebound. Two months later and the overbought condition and bearish sentiment has been alleviated to some degree. Sadly for bulls, Gold barely rebounded while both Silver and gold miners performed worse. The broad precious metals sector appears to be in position for a breakdown that could be a knockout blow to gold bulls and gold bugs. Full Story
A recent Reuters report about surging silver coin sales all over the world (click here) has precious metal investors wondering if this is not an early sign of the sort of increased physical metal demand that would surely precede another big take-off in silver prices like in 2009 to 2011 when silver rocketed from $8.50 to $49.50 an ounce, still just short of its 1980 all-time high. Full Story
Gold tends not to leave India once it enters. As the world’s largest importer, the country consumes massive quantities of the yellow metal—it’s on track to take in 900 tonnes of the stuff this year—where it remains in private families’ coffers, mostly in the form of jewelry and decorative heirlooms. It’s estimated that less than 10 percent of all Indian gold demand is in bars and coins. Full Story
This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since. Full Story
In a generally quiet week, gold and silver prices were marked down in thin trade towards the quarter-end, when traders make up their books, with gold falling $32 to $1114.5, and silver by 58 cents by the close on Thursday night. Full Story
It has been 7 years now since that fateful weekend when the story leaked out in bits and pieces about what was called a ‘problem’ at Lehman Brothers. It started on a Friday night and by the time Sunday night rolled around and I embarked on my weekly Blog Talk Radio podcast, it was very obvious there was something terribly wrong. I was getting calls from concerned clients about what the next day might bring – a rare oddity for a Sunday. Full Story
Why are interest rates at historic lows in the United States and around the world? The widely-accepted answer is that very low interest rates exist for the purpose of stimulating economic growth and corporate profits, and are thereby helping the United States and other nations that are struggling with persistent and deep-rooted economic and unemployment problems. Full Story
Since the start of June, global equity markets have lost over $13 trillion. This might be thought of as lost "collateral" for the mountains of pyramided global debt. This is frightening the Central Bankers! Full Story
Central bankers may wish for this outcome on a controlled basis to allow them to hit their price inflation targets, and this could happen quite quickly. If people face a tax on their cash and bank deposits, which is what a negative interest rate amounts to, they will simply reduce these balances, artificially boosting demand. Full Story
These stock market rallies are driven by the expansion of the money supply, causing a big increase in value of paper assets (including stocks) relative to real assets. When the increase in credit or the money supply has run its course, and is unable to drive paper price higher; value then flees from paper assets to safe assets such as physical gold and silver, causing massive price increases. Full Story
I predicted that gold would rally last week up to the $1,155 area, and was also equally unsurprised when it was rejected the first time by that declining (see green trend-line on chart) resistance line. Those are standard or obvious Cycle pivot points, but how it continued lower yesterday to fall well below the 10 day moving average was not a “typical” development if you’re a supporter of the bull case in gold. Full Story
Back to the important question: Where is the gold rush? Retirees, future retirees and current state workers should realize that they will inevitably lose benefits and jobs while their taxes and expenses increase. Gold, not the legislature nor the politicians, will protect their purchasing power. But strangely, there seems to be no gold rush in Illinois for protection against their legislature, pension underfunding and loss of purchasing power. Full Story
One of the biggest issues investors need to assess today is the US Dollar carry trade. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of a carry trade, it occurs when you borrow in one currency, usually at a very low interest rate, and then invest the money in another security, whether it be a bond, stock or what have you, that is denominated in another currency. Full Story
Gold closed the third quarter down 4.8 per cent at $1,115 an ounce. The summer months are the traditional doldrums for the gold market. But it could have been much worse with the early August low of $1,080. Gold bugs hope that was the bottom of the recent correction and from here the only way is up. Full Story
The miraculous feat of gaining 1,000,000 followers in 24 hours in Twitter is once again being challenged. Prior to today I know of only two other Twitter users that were able to accomplish this! Can you guess the two people that have done it? Full Story
Nearly four months ago on June 2nd, something very unusual happened in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The price of propane actually became negative, hitting an unbelievable -0.625 cents per gallon. It’s hard to believe that the price of a productive commodity could become so beat down by the market that producers would practically have to pay you to take it off their hands. Full Story
Whereas some central banks have become more forthcoming on where they claim their official gold reserves are stored (see my recent blog post ‘Central bank gold at the Bank of England‘), many of the world’s central banks remain secretive in this regard, with some central bank staff saying that they are not allowed to provide this information, and some central banks just ignoring the question when asked. Full Story
Amazingly, more and more people are becoming bullish of metals and miners again. So, are we now setting up the final decline due to the increased bullishness? I think so. But, nothing suggests to me as of the time of my writing this update that the top of this rally has clearly been seen before we drop to those lower lows. Full Story
Falling stock and commodity prices around the world are underscoring a change of fortunes for the global economy. As the shockwaves from Europe, China and the developing markets spreads, there is a growing sense among investors that the U.S. might be the next casualty of the global slowdown. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 30 September, 2015
While the Mainstream Media and Financial Network hacks delude Americans into believing the Fed and U.S. Treasury are in control of the financial and economic system, investors continue on a record eight-year buying spree of silver. This multi-year silver buying trend is unprecedented in history. Precious metal investors need to understand just how different this current trend of elevated physical silver demand is compared to previous periods in history. Full Story
It's campaign season, and that means non-stop media coverage of candidate polls, quips, gaffes, tweets, emails, controversies, lies, and scandals. It all makes for a good soap opera. Unfortunately, it's almost all irrelevant in the big picture. The media prefer to focus on the sideshow rather than the 800-pound gorilla in the room: the looming debt crisis. Nothing that comes out of a pundit's mouth or a Hillary Clinton email will close the $210 trillion long-term fiscal gap the U.S. now faces. Full Story
Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market’s role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences. Full Story
A few years ago Warren was interviewed on CNBC. The interviewer asked him: “Where do you think gold will be trading five years from now?” His answer showed an ongoing dislike for gold as he replied: “I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you." Full Story
Two huge pieces of news hit Monday like a one-two punch! First; UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal followed by; Saudi Arabia withdraws overseas funds. Gold and Oil both affect the dollar, and this is happening while global liquidity is drying up. The soon to be catch phrase for October will be "lack of liquidity"! Full Story
As time passes, and although difficult to discern for those caught in the whirlwind, increasing numbers are starting to ask the right questions about our worsening economies – why and who is doing this to us? And as the economy continues to worsen and disenfranchise increasing numbers from the ‘middle class’, this trend should become stronger, finally arriving at a point of revolution. The rentier and political classes, which are the ‘who’, know this, and are attempting to take steps to preserve the neo-feudal status quo, which is the ‘why’. Full Story
In late 2014, many investors in the Western gold community decided to invest the booming US stock market. I warned that without QE, the US stock market was turning into a “wet noodle”, and rate hikes could cause a global markets crash, in the September-October time frame. That crash is essentially underway, on schedule, and the stunning meltdown continued last night in Asia. Full Story
The world has added approximately $60 Trillion in debt since 2007, much of it sovereign debt created from deficit spending on social programs, wars, and much more. In that time the world has mined perhaps 30,000 tons of gold, or about 950 million ounces, worth at September 2015 prices a little more than a $Trillion. It is easy to create debt – central banks “print” currencies by BORROWING those currencies into existence. Debt increases, currency in circulation increases, and until it crashes, life is good for the financial and political elite. But debt increasing 60 times more rapidly than gold indicates that debt is growing too rapidly and due for a reset. Full Story
At first blush, it may appear great for business to have access to cheap financing. But what may be good for any one business is not necessarily good for the economy. When interest rates are artificially depressed, it can subsidize struggling enterprises that might otherwise be driven out of business. As a result, productive capital can be locked into zombie enterprises. If ailing businesses were allowed to fail, those laid off would need to look for new jobs at firms that have a better chance of succeeding. As such, the core tenant of capitalism: creative destruction, may be undermined through ZIRP. In our assessment, the result is that an economy grows at substantially below its potential. Full Story
When I first got into this business, the guys in the trading pits didn’t care which way the stock market moved, because they were professional traders and nimble enough to make money no matter what direction the stock market moved. Today, those traders have become cheerleaders who think the Federal Reserve exists to help them make money, which is why Bullard’s criticism is so accurate. Despite Wall Street’s caterwauling, it is not the Fed’s job to prop up stock prices. Full Story
It is often reported that governments and central banks have for years leased or sold their gold to bullion banks; therefore, they are unlikely to possess the tons of gold, they are said hold. Also, the bullion banks seem to be under enormous pressure recently. Just look at the recently reported spike in the gold coverage ratio on COMEX, with, there being over 200 ounces of paper gold claims for every ounce of deliverable gold (as reported on zerohedge.com) Full Story
Most of us remember cowboy movies in which a lonesome desperado acquires a sack of gold coins that everyone else wants. It’s a thankless task that typically doesn’t end well. I vividly recall the final scene from Sergio Leone’s The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, in which a long rifle shot from Blondie (Clint Eastwood) severs the hangman’s noose holding Tuco (Eli Wallach), sending him face-first into a pile of gold coins. It’s still memorable even after I learned it was filmed in the Spanish plateau region of Burgos, not the U.S. Southwest. Full Story
In August, Peter Schiff was a guest speaker at The Jackson Hole Summit, a gathering of free-market activists warning of the dangers of overreaching central banks and irresponsible monetary policies. The Summit coincided with the official central bank conference held every year in Wyoming. Peter’s speech was titled “Monetary Roach Motel: There Is No Exit from the Fed’s Stimulus”, and he reprised his consistent message of how the Federal Reserve created the economic problems it is pretending to solve. Peter also spent some time exposing Janet Yellen’s terrible track record as an economic forecaster. Full Story
Last week the U.S. played host to three prominent and illustrious leaders to billions of people: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pope Francis. Among them, they lead—either politically or spiritually—nearly 4 billion people worldwide, more than half of everyone living on the planet right now. Full Story
Glencore is going to make Enron look like a polite tea and cake break. Gold was smashed when paper London opened because the Fed, BoE and ECB can not under any circumstances let the price of gold spike up – like it should be doing – and thereby alert the world that there’s a big problem in the world of derivatives related to Glencore, among other “things” (Emerging Market FX contract, energy, Biotech ETFs, etc). Full Story
Excuse me if I ramble on today. Finishing the book project, on top of my writing and research routine, is putting a lot of pressure on me, so I’m sort of making it up as I go. Another consequence of a busy work schedule is that I occasionally skip a workout. I didn’t do that today, however, for several reasons. Full Story
Gold traders are bullish for a second week on the view that the Fed is to remain dovish. Further, the put-to-call ratio, which represents the number of bearish options trading, compared with bullish ones, for SPDR Gold Shares is at the lowest since 2012. This is seen as a signal bears may be losing their stranglehold on the market. Full Story
This is like a cotton candy machine. It spins sugar, with the help of heat and air, into something many times its original size. The Federal Reserve operates a similar machine for the housing market. It spins the price of a house, with the help of credit and debt, into something many times its original size. Full Story
The Swiss Competition Commission has started a investigation against the two Swiss Banks UBS and Julius Baer plus the foreign financial institutions Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Mitsui. The Commission has gained possible evidence, that the banks may have colluded in trading precious metals. The suspicion is that they might colluded in price fixes, especially “spreads” (differences in bid and offer prices). Full Story
Catherine Austin Fitts, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner and president of Solari, Inc., publisher of the Solari Report, returns to the show. She's concerned by the crumbling US infrastructure and lack of constructive efforts to rectify the situation. Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, is sticking with his dire prognostication for the rest of 2015. The stock market could face severe consequences, amid market manipulation. Chris welcomes Avi Gilburt, from Elliott Wave Trader in his debut on the show. His team specializes in identifying the tops / bottoms of key market trends. According to his Elliott Wave count-analysis, gold could ascend beyond $25,000. Full Story
In this Weekend Report I would like to focus on the PM complex as it has rallied for the last several days. During most of the bear market gold has held up better than the PM stocks and silver so we’ll start there to see if we can find any clues on what’s really going on. Full Story
Our view is that we are still in a secular bear market, and have been since the 2000 Tech Wreck. You may find that view surprising, since the benchmarks have roughly tripled since the 2009 low. Our analysis looks at price/earnings ratios to identify when bull and bear markets begin or end. P/E multiples were close to 50 in year 2000. In order for that bear market to end, they needed to drop into the very low double-digit or single-digit range, which has been the signal for the end of every long-term secular bear cycle for over 100 years. That hasn’t happened during the intervening 15 years. Full Story
The price of gold moved up moderately, and the price of silver moved down a few cents this week. However, there were some interesting fireworks in the middle of the week. Tuesday, the prices dropped and Thursday the prices of the metals popped $23 and $0.34 respectively. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 27 September, 2015
Friday’s pullback to p=1141.90 triggered a mechanical buy there for a possible ride over the near term to as high as 1185.90. However, because this implies a relatively wide initial stop-loss at 1127.30, traders uncomfortable with the entry risk could cut it down to size by doing the trade camouflage-style on a chart of lesser degree. An appropriately subtle example can be found on the 30-minute chart using these coordinates: A=1144.30 at 4:30 p.m. on 9/25; B=1148.40 at 6:00 p.m.; and C(?)=1145.20 at 7:00 p.m. Full Story
Outright financial collapse, chaos and most probably war is not only in sight, it is imminent and unavoidable now. Normally I try to write and support my conclusions with current or past events via links to news. For this writing, because of the length and scope I don't plan to do this. It will be assumed that you as the reader have already heard of or read evidence of what is put forth as connectable dots. Full Story
This month marks the seventh anniversary of the bursting of the housing bubble and the subsequent economic meltdown. The mood in Congress following the meltdown resembled the panicked atmosphere that followed the September 11th attacks. As was the case after September 11th, Congress rushed to pass hastily written legislation that, instead of dealing with the real causes of the crisis, simply gave the government more power. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 27 September, 2015
This misses something crucial: that the more that markets are "financialized," the more advantage passes to those with the greater access to financing. Since central banks are able to create infinite money and, as GATA has established with extensive documentation, certain central banks and their agents are the biggest shorts in the gold market and very possibly the biggest shorts in the commodity markets generally, and surreptitiously so... Full Story
One of our long-running themes here is that the truly historic and massive flows of gold from West to East is (someday) going to stop, for the simple reason that there will be no more physical bullion left to move. It’s just a basic supply vs. demand issue. At current rates of flow, sooner or later the West will entirely run out of physical gold to sell to China and India. Although long before that hard limit, we suspect that the remaining holders of gold in the West will cease their willingness to part with their gold. Full Story
Fast forward 9 months from the last piece and most of these shale producers are mere shells of themselves. If you got out of the way—good for you. Amazingly, these companies can still find creative ways to tap the debt markets, stay alive and flood the market with oil. Eventually, most won’t make it and I believe that the ultimate global debt write-off is in the hundreds of billions of dollars—maybe even a trillion depending on which larger players stumble. That doesn’t even include the service companies or the employees who have their own consumer and mortgage debt. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 27 September, 2015
Not only has the present retail silver bullion product shortage continued for several months now, what happens if it never ends? This may seem like a play on hype, but if the U.S. or World experiences another Black Swan event like the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008, physical silver demand will likely explode to levels much higher than today. Full Story
Markets broke this week as the chart suggested and they remain looking for lower prices in the very near future. While the direction is down, we are back in the rhythm of much of the action taking place overnight leaving us with gaps, in other-words, it’s a bit of a guessing game. While things do point to lower with a high probability of success, you just never know, so I am not risking trading right now until we see a major low put in over the next couple of weeks and then the gaps should simmer down a bit, hopefully. Full Story
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