By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 2 October, 2009
The gold price is now holding just below $1,000 and consolidating. Why is it at a high point having fought to get there over the last 18 months or so? Since it first broke through the 30 year high of $850 it has held its ground. It has steadily built a base over $850 and is moving if it has not already moved to a clear Point of Resolution, where it will show itself as either having had its day or is at the beginning of a new day. Which way will it go? Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 2 October, 2009
For those market boosters who are prattling on about the possibility of a "jobless recovery," I offer an invitation to join me for a breakfast of "fat-free bacon," "eggless omelets," and "no-carb bread." As unappetizing as such a meal may sound, it would nevertheless offer more substance than the oxymoronic concept of an economic resurgence without job creation. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 2 October, 2009
Borrowing trillions of Dollars from foreigners has its costs. While the interest or financial expense is one component of the ultimate burden, other far higher costs have gone largely unnoticed until now. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 2 October, 2009
The Dow appears to have topped on the 23rd after trading as high as 9917 and ending the day on a negative note. Such an occurrence is called a key reversal day and usually marks the beginning of a corrective phase. If the Dow does not trade past 9600 soon and for a period of at least 5 days, then the odds favour that this correction is going to start to intensify. Full Story
Debate stirs on whether the financial structure of the USEconomy is broken irreparably. Debate stirs on whether actions taken in the last year or two have put the nation on a path that can even achieve stability, let alone recovery. Debate stirs on whether a pernicious and not so secret syndicate has taken control of the USGovt financial ministries, let alone be removed. Debate stirs on whether lack of US Federal Reserve audits and disclosure of their accounting is integral to sustaining the syndicate control as well as its probable egregious fraud. Debate stirs... Full Story
I have been asked countless times in the past month why it is that share markets seem to have a difficult time navigating the autumn months. Obviously, there is a healthy amount of fear regarding the next 29 days, as the memories of last year are still firmly intact. Yesterday’s 203-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials Average has done nothing more than rekindle those sour memories. While the question ‘Why October?’ is largely rhetorical in nature, we can certainly take a look at history for some potential causes for the blowups. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 2 October, 2009
The base metals markets have been some of the most exciting to trade in this commodities bull. From trough to peak, copper, zinc, nickel, lead, and aluminum have seen staggering gains of 575%, 537%, 1124%, 888%, and 163%! Naturally, gains of this magnitude have made the mining of these metals an incredibly lucrative business. Full Story
“The Recession is Over” talk has become Chic among the Trendy Big Media Talking Heads. The Fundamentals, Technicals, and Interventionals for the Equities Markets, and certain key Commodities, tell a different story. Let’s consider certain of these Realities, and how we might best protect and profit. Full Story
By: Bill Strazzullo with Yahoo! Finance - 2 October, 2009
"Gold has the most potential here," Strazzullo says. While bears are concerned about deflationary pressures, some high-profile hedge funds are scooping up gold futures and Strazzullo is going with the same theme. He predicts gold could soon hit $1200 per ounce, on its way to $1400. Full Story
By: David Morgan and Tom Jeffries - 2 October, 2009
In the United States, some people are two paychecks or three paychecks away from bankruptcy, thus gold is the last thing on their mind as far as what they can afford. But they certainly could afford some silver, so I think you’re going to see silver really, really take off once we get near the end of this great credit debacle that we’re now experiencing. Full Story
Bloomberg had a recent story by Alison Fitzgerald and Christine Harper on Geithner and his alleged plans to correct things with a focus on comments from the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Paul A. Volcker. Full Story
Clueless commentators attributed yesterday’s stock-market selloff to weak manufacturing data and supposed fears over job numbers due out Friday. What poppycock! The pundits would have gotten closer to the truth if they had cited sunspots or unusual seismic activity at Yellowstone. Shares plummeted for the simple reason that they were ready to plummet. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 1 October, 2009
For ten years, I've been told by all the experts in the precious metals industry that nobody knows nor can know the size of the "over the counter" derivatives, since they are not on the popular, relatively more transparent exchanges, such as the COMEX, and other futures exchanges. Yet, here we have a report, by the BIS, the best source in the world, fully admitting, and counting, the overall size of precious metals, OVER THE COUNTER, usually non-transparent, derivatives! Full Story
Whether or not I end up making short term recommendations to get short in October or not, I believe the bigger play is using market weakness to establish a long position. The question is where and when, assuming prices follow seasonal expectations. Full Story
Despite a four-digit price tag, gold remains a relative bargain when a little perspective is applied... The inflation-adjusted price of gold at its 1980 peak is just over $2350 — that leaves a considerable amount of headroom just on the basis of making up for past inflation, let alone the prospect of continued inflation. Full Story
In a discussion I had earlier this week with Dr. Jim Willie, we discussed how the prices of gold and silver have been arbitrarily managed for years. In this discussion, I contended that, while the prices of gold and silver have been closely managed, the growing “off-take” of physical bullion is inflicting great damage on price managers. We can see manifestations of this reality in that price corrections [sell-offs] are much shallower and shorter lived than they were even last year. Jim asked me if I could provide any “hard data” or minutia showing the amounts of physical metal being taken off the market in recent weeks... Full Story
A gold coin standard or silver coin standard provides continuity that fiat money systems do not provide. Such a standard makes life difficult for counterfeiters. This is why governments do whatever it takes to substitute a fiat currency unit for a precious metals coinage. The government wants to benefit as the nation's monopolistic counterfeiter. It will share this only with commercial banks and the central bank. It does this only because the central bank promises to be the lender of last resort to the national Treasury. Full Story
Those who read the contrarian and alternative financial commentators may well be forgiven for wondering why the financial doomsday oft predicted hasn’t quite materialized. The financial crisis heralded by the crash in October 2008, preceded by the demise of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, among others, by all accounts was the tip of the iceberg and the advent of the Great Depression of our age. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Byron King - 1 October, 2009
A highly regarded energy and resource sector expert who discusses his field fervently whenever possible and whose writings include the top-ranking Outstanding Investments, Byron King brings his views direct to The Energy Report audience in this exclusive interview. Full Story
The U.S. dollar has been getting a beating from all sides, but its woes may be far from over – recent developments in Japan, China, Germany and the United Kingdom, not to speak of domestic developments in the U.S., are pointing to a rocky road ahead. Today’s focus is on Japan and, more specifically, how a country on a downward economic spiral can have a strong currency. Full Story
The ‘big picture’ monthly chart of the S&P 500 continues to grapple with the ‘bull trigger’ EMA 20. It could prove a costly mistake to jump the gun on this signal; despite the tune the boom bands will play once they pick up on it. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 1 October, 2009
As a part-time member of the press corps, I had the good fortune to attend many of the public sessions at last week's G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh. As impressive as it was to closely witness the gathering of countries representing some 85 percent of the world's GDP (along with the governors of the World Bank, the IMF and the European Central Bank), it was equally remarkable to witness the immense security forces deployed to restrain those who feel the gathering harbored the forces most responsible for the world's economic and financial problems. Full Story
I watch the price of gold stocks very closely because when there is large divergence from the price action of gold bullion I can get in a trade before the general public does. Tuesday we saw gold stocks put in a powerful rally yet gold bullion did not move much. This told me there was going to be some positive action Wednesday in gold and there was a very nice rally, indeed. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Chuck Cohen - 1 October, 2009
Gold lurched back into bullish gear yesterday, lifting the spirits of those who may have read too much into last week’s apparently gratuitous decline. Before lapsing into despair whenever gold corrects, as it is bound to do from time to time, we should consider the big picture and ask, Is this the way a top would look? Here are some of the signs we might expect to accompany a real top in bullion, courtesy of our friend Chuck Cohen. Full Story
A SHORT SERIES of secret memos, published and dissected at ZeroHedge, provide the "smoking gun" of gold-market manipulation. Apparently. And given this little slew of dusty archive-digging – throwing up three documents from 1968 to 1975, each one declassified within thirty years – then "If over 40 years ago the Fed and the members of the gold 'Pool' were openly intervening in the gold market, one can only imagine what the situation is now..." Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 30 September, 2009
Houses bounce too… Not much happened yesterday. The Dow fell 47 points. The newspapers attributed the reversal to surprisingly low consumer confidence numbers. Apparently, consumers aren’t so sure this crisis is over. As we reported yesterday, they’re saving money…maybe even at an 8% rate. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 30 September, 2009
What is going to happen next is that the 6-month stock rally is about to end. It took everything the Fed could muster to accomplish this. As the market heads lower government, Wall Street and banking will have to contend with irate shareholders and retirees as well as owners of stock, life cash value insurance policies and annuities. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 30 September, 2009
Clearly, the “juniors” are still the best value in gold stocks around. Going back to 2007, gold’s up almost 50%, major gold miners are up 10%, and junior gold miners are down 40%. So whether you’re looking to time your entry points, use market sentiment to your favor, or just get the most bang for your buck in the gold bull market, take a look at what’s actually going on in the market. Full Story
Some years ago I penned a paper with the title “The Supply of Oxen at the Fed”. I am indebted to Alan Greenspan for a great line in one of his speeches, entitled The History of Money, from where I borrowed my title. He wrote: “If fiat money falters, we may have to go back to oxen as our medium of exchange. In that event, I trust, the Federal Reserve will have an adequate inventory of oxen.” My article was designed to reassure Mr. Greenspan that the supply of oxen at the Fed was very secure indeed, in no small measure due to his stewardship. Full Story
Get ready for next month. I always find myself approaching October with a little trepidation. As soon as all those 3rd quarter earnings (or lack thereof) start coming in we could be in for quite a shock. It just seems that surprises of the worst kind show up in the stock market in Octobers past (especially the most recent one). Full Story
The paper bills in our wallet are not money. And they are not Notes as in "Federal Reserve Note" written on the top of the bill. They are actually just Tokens. Federal Reserve Tokens, if you like, is what should be written on top of the bills. They are not redeemable for anything other than themselves. And they represent only one thing: Your belief in their value. Hopefully, your belief extends to the next person you try to give them to. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 30 September, 2009
When B of A spokesman Lawrence DiRita turned up on the evening news not long ago to assure listeners that his employer was willing to work on a case-by-case basis with troubled customers, we decided to call his bluff. Would DiRita, formerly a high-ranking official in the Defense Department, go to bat for the borrower whose “teaser” loan from the bank was about to shoot up overnight from 0% to 12.24%? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 29 September, 2009
The rally may end any day, but it didn’t end yesterday. Stocks rose 127 points, as measured by the Dow. Oil closed at $66. Gold rose $2.50. We said we were doing some serious thinking this week. Maybe it is the season. But more and more, our thoughts become grayer. Less black. Less white. Less hard. Less soft. Full Story
By: Terry Coxon, Editor, The Casey Report - 29 September, 2009
Sprinkled among all the official talk about efforts to end the current recession, you’ll hear assurances, notably from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, that when the economy does revive, it won’t be allowed to blast off into runaway inflation. The Fed, we’re being promised, will prevent such a launch by reabsorbing the hundreds of billions of dollars of excess liquidity it recently created to halt the credit crisis. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Byron King - 29 September, 2009
A highly regarded resource sector expert who discusses his field fervently whenever possible and whose writings include the top-ranking Outstanding Investments, Byron King brings his views direct to The Gold Report audience in this exclusive interview. Unconvinced that the recession is behind us, he is equally sure that the "bottomless pit" mentality of stimulus spending will wreck the dollar. Those are among the reasons he sees $2,000-per-ounce gold on the not-too-distant horizon. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 September, 2009
During last Friday's hearing of the House Financial Services Committee on his legislation to audit the Federal Reserve System, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul asked the Fed's general counsel, Scott G. Alvarez, whether the Fed has ever been involved in the gold market. Four days earlier GATA had disclosed the Fed's admission that it has records of its "gold swap arrangements" with "foreign banks" that it wants to conceal from the public. Full Story
Gold companies, gold stocks, gold shares - for sale and on sale Down Under now! We correctly called a small correction at GoldOz on the 21st after penning an article over the 19th and 20th (a weekend) based on the action on the Friday before that. This dip presents another fantastic opportunity to get set at low prices as we reach the October buying season. Full Story
While often wrong, Bernanke is right about the recession. It’s almost over. But a depression is about to replace it. There has been much discussion about this recovery, whether it will be a “U”, “V” or a “W” shaped recovery. The answer is none of the above. It is going to be “C -shaped” recovery, but not as in the letter “C” but as in coffin. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 29 September, 2009
In summary, the monetary system is only "credit-based" up to a point, and even if it were totally "credit-based" the central bank would still have practically unlimited ability to expand the money supply. Does this mean that deflation is impossible under the current monetary system unless the central bank is willing to allow the system to deflate? Yes. Full Story
This question divides economists even more than it divides voters. Voters do not think much about this question. Economists think about it throughout their careers. They do not agree with each other regarding the answer. Full Story
By: Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS - 29 September, 2009
Now, less this analyst sound too negative, the longer term case remains intact. The Federal Reserve will eventually respond to the negative implications of slowing U.S. money supply growth. We can expect near full monetization of the Obama Regime’s massive deficits in the future. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve will be forced to “deliver cash by trucks” to the U.S. Treasury to finance that deficit. That will get us back on the glory road for $Gold to US$1,700+. Full Story
In this extraordinary environment, preserving your personal wealth becomes priority one. Before you make another major financial decision, it is imperative to understand the big picture by recognizing and understanding three critical issues. First, we are in a secular bear market for financial assets (stocks and bonds). Second, the consequences of the global bailouts will likely be highly inflationary. Third, we are at a pivotal point in the long-term investment cycle. Let’s examine each of these three keys in more detail. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 28 September, 2009
It is a gray morning here in London. We sit in the building with the golden balls, look out the window, and wonder…how does it all work? We’re doing some serious thinking this week. What is it that actually causes a depression? A stock market collapse? Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 28 September, 2009
Last week I was very pleased that the Financial Services Committee held a hearing on the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, HR 1207. The bill has 295 cosponsors and there is also strong support for the companion bill in the Senate. This hearing was a major step forward in getting the bill passed. Full Story
On one side of the formula we have the continued need for speed in monetary creation by whatever means, capably characterized by Doug Noland in his weekly commentary explaining that while it will all end badly, government largesse will likely get out of control before its all over. The point he is getting at here is that because of all it’s meddling, the government (and us) is locked in an inflation death grip it necessarily needs to keep building on or face implosion. Full Story
Based on the supply and demand situation of silver, it's only a question of time when a silver shortage will come. Nobody can predict exactly when this is going to happen, but we have more and more signs that those who control the price of silver are sweating to balance the supply. Full Story
All the scaredy-cats are trembling in their shoes this week as gold dipped below the $1,000 level. Foolish people. Can’t they see that the U.S. dollar is in free fall? We told subscribers this on August 3, when the U.S. dollar index broke 78.20, thus completing a double top. That double top is now working out its implications, and the dollar bulls are taking it on the chin. Full Story
Last week I testified before the House Financial Services Committee in support of HR 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009. Speaking on behalf of HR 1207 is particularly tricky because (1) what the Fed might be up to is entirely speculative, and thus can hardly be admitted into testimony; and (2) the bill is not opposed to the Fed per se, so arguments about the Fed’s performance as an economic stabilizer are also out of bounds (unless a congressman happens to raise them). Full Story
The latest thrust didn’t quite make it into new all time high territory. What is it waiting for? Gaddafi talked, Ahmadinejad smiled, Chavez smelled, Obama whined and throughout it all Medvedev must have been smirking. What more is there to get gold screaming into new highs? Full Story
The market continues to whipsaw traders out of positions as volatility rises. I have put together a few charts to show you where each of our commodities are trading along with the SPX (SP500 index). Full Story
This week we have seen gold and silver move lower, just like I mentioned a week ago. Gold closed the week below $1000, and silver topped exactly in tune with the cycles that I mentioned in the previous essay. Where do we go from here and how fast? Let’s take a closer look on charts (courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and see what may be waiting just around the corner. Full Story
Friday 25 September 2009 had two significant events. First, there was a full committee hearing on Ron Paul’s bill H.R. 1207 to audit the Federal Reserve. Second, Chief Judge Edith Jones of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, directly under the United States Supreme Court and covers Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana and Texas, issued an order for a three judge panel to hear an issue brought about apportionment regarding the House of Representatives. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 27 September, 2009
Nearly half the nation's 25 biggest retail chains expect to hire fewer holiday workers this season than they did last year, another sign that retailers aren't counting on recession-strained shoppers to relax the tight grip on their pocketbooks this year. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 27 September, 2009
Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation. This week we consider all things unemployment and ponder the need to create at least 15 million jobs in the next five years to return to a full-employment economy - and the implications for both the US and world economies if we don't. Full Story
In the end as an investor, it's all about the scoreboard. For those who aren't traders, allocation to the correct asset classes is critical to long-term returns. Following are the returns for the S&P 500, the U.S. Dollar (using the Dollar Index as a proxy), Commodities (using the Continuous Commodity Index [$CCI] as a proxy) and Gold. Full Story
Probably the biggest “X-factor” in the ongoing effort at reviving the global economy is China. China is seen by many as the world’s emerging industrial powerhouse and its relationship with the United States is considered to be crucial for its own development, as well as for the strength of the world economy. With the U.S. in the role as the world’s premier consumer and China considered to be the major industrial player, all eyes are on the respective economies of these two great nations. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 27 September, 2009
The Silver Market is small. Very small. I don't think people quite understand how small it is, nor understand fully the implications, meaning how much higher silver prices must go as the market grows to accommodate future silver buyers. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 27 September, 2009
World production of silver isn’t going to drop yet but we await the day when the USGS will begin to drop that reserves number. When that happens, the world will perhaps begin to believe in silver’s Unique Selling Proposition. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Jon Hykawy - 27 September, 2009
One of these days, pent-up demand for new cars and growing concern about the carbon footprint associated with driving vehicles powered by traditional internal combustion engines will fuel tremendous demand for lithium, a development sure to spark greater investor interest, as well. A staple in batteries for hybrids and all-electric vehicles on the road and on the drawing boards, lithium is becoming a darling among hot commodities. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 27 September, 2009
Many of the rules applied in the past are no longer valid. Gone forever. So the task we are left with for today and tomorrow is to attempt to understand the new changes occurring around us today and for tomorrow. A lot of these changes will not be welcomed never the less we have to deal with them. The coming decade will be like no other we have ever faced in our generation. The struggles may be more difficult. They will be more difficult. Full Story
The week was highlighted by the G20 and federal bank non-decision. There was little said about Ron Paul’s bill to audit the fed. Would you have expected anything else. The mainstream tells you what they want you to know, not what you want and need to know. Here is a fantastic clip from the Ron Paul hearings. Full Story
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