I see analysis out there discussing the Semiconductor sector as a whole as being under valued relative to other stock market sectors. This seems to be based on the fact that the SOX chart has not made nearly the catch up move that for example, the NDX has in its post 2000 recovery. While charts can provide many helpful views to probabilities, they cannot get inside an industry and divine the importance of a sub-sector (Semi Equipment; AMAT, LRCX, etc.) within a sector as a whole. Full Story
We think of thieves as conducting their work when no one is looking, such as breaking into a house while the owners are away. But the most successful thieves have done their stealing in plain sight, on a grand scale, while the owners are home and often with their tacit approval, though with sleight of hand techniques that not one man in a million is able to detect. Such a thief entered our lives when Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law on December 23, 1913. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 31 December, 2015
Gold certainly had a rough year in 2015, grinding inexorably lower on Fed-rate-hike fears and investor abandonment. But gold is poised to rebound dramatically in this new year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows. The drivers of gold’s weakness have soared to such extremes that they have to reverse hard. The resulting heavy buying from dominant groups of traders will fuel gold’s mighty 2016 upleg. Full Story
The First Industrial Revolution started with technological innovation driving the slow industrialization of the United Kingdom in the 18th century which merged into the Second Industrial Revolution around 1850. The start of the second industrial revolution was marked by a transition of technological leadership from Britain to the United States and Germany. Full Story
The Crack-Up boom is already underway in many of the peripheal nations of the world. It is more about a cascading series of events. The story in all the peripherals is similar to both Venezuela and Brazil. The only way to make Money in the Crack-up Boom is in the US$, remembering the US Dollar will be the last to fall while globalized Crack-Up Boom is underway. However, the US$ will eventually fall. Full Story
The precious metals sector will close 2015 entrenched in a seemingly forever bear market. Most of the sector has been in a bear market for over four and a half years. Gold’s bear market will reach four and a half years in a few months. Meanwhile the US Dollar’s bull market remains strong and is likely to continue. In this article we discuss our 2016 big picture outlook for the US Dollar, Gold and gold stocks. Full Story
Since gold topped out in 2011 it has been in a confirmed and unrelenting bear market. Since that bull market high in gold the INDU has been outperforming gold in a big way. The first chart I would like to show you is a combo chart which has the INDU:GOLD ratio chart on top and GOLD on the bottom. As you can see both the INDU:GOLD ratio chart on top and GOLD on the bottom reversed direction in 2011 with the ratio chart on top showing the INDU moving in a near parabolic move against gold. Gold on the bottom chart is showing a near parabolic move lower since its 2011 bull market peak. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 31 December, 2015
The market price of gold would be considerably higher if it wasn’t for the massive stock dilution and debt in the gold mining industry. Basically, the gold mining industry issued billions of new shares and debt to help replace production and to compensate for rising costs. Thus, investors of gold mining stocks got raped so the market could enjoy an artificially lower gold price. Full Story
On this, my last article of 2015, we’ll start with the “ugly preliminaries” of my final economic snapshot of the year – followed by an uplifting end, per a wonderful, life-affirming experience I enjoyed last night. And ultimately, a message of hope for truth-seekers the world round, particularly those in the Miles Franklin Blog community. Full Story
Financial writer Bill Holter says all the talk of the so-called “recovery” and reaching “escape velocity is imminent” have been total lies. Holter explains, “We have heard the word ‘recovery’ for seven years . . . we’ve never gotten to the expansion phase. They keep talking about ‘escape velocity,’ and we have never gotten there in seven years. Now, the Fed has raised interest rates just before Christmas. This is the first time ever the Fed has raised rates right before Christmas, and they raised rates into a weak economy where credit is already tight. The only time they have done that is 1937, and we know how that worked out.” Full Story
As we move into the 5th year of this correction in the metals, I would like to take us back a bit in history before we move forward to our expectations, which should be instructive as to how we will be turning bullish in 2016. I also want to review how we treat corrections, so that you understand our process a bit better. Full Story
Returning to the broad market outlook, a New Year’s rally largely depends on continued improvement in the internal condition of the NYSE. The most important indicator of NYSE broad market health is of course the new 52-week highs and lows. When traders and fund managers return from the holidays next week, we’ll have a much better idea of what the market’s near-term direction is likely to be since this will tell us whether the recent contraction in new 52-week lows is a holiday-related aberration or the start of internal recovery. Full Story
Markets move in anticipation of events, and gold's is no different. I believe there are two possible scenarios that will act to end gold's decline. First, when the most forward observers and thinkers begin to cautiously accumulate gold. This, after sensing the U.S. and other major economies have begun sustainable economic expansions. Or, deflation takes hold and the important countries sufficiently expand their QE programs to threaten rampant inflation. While neither exists today, let's hope it's the former that prevails! Full Story
It has been an enduring mystery to many why the enormous amount of money created by the Federal Reserve in the wake of the 2008 crisis never translated to a general price inflation. After all, as Milton Friedman lectured us, "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena." So why didn't the enormous amount of money created by the Fed during its quantitative easing program – some $3.5 trillion added to the bank reserve credit – launch double-digit price inflation, or worse? Full Story
As we wind up the year, let's first briefly look at where we are and then wrap up with a most very basic concept "it is hoped" you will never see ...until it's too late? Before getting started I would like to apologize to readers as apparently the "political correctness" exchange between Harry Truman and Douglas MacArthur never took place. It certainly does sound like their individual tones and I will add, if they did not have this exchange ...they should have! Hopefully you understood the theme in my last writing? Full Story
Since the Dot.com Bubble burst the US has accelerated its Macro-Prudential Policies of Financial Repression. PEW Research just released a study which tracks the deterioration in the confidence citizens have in their government. We have a Crisis of Trust in America and as the charts below show, it has only accelerated with government policies of Financial Repression. Full Story
As we at The Gold Report interviewed the investing stars in 2015, we saw some patterns develop. Whether it was in the wake of terror attacks, bond defaults, currencies (we are looking at you, Swiss Central Bank and China, decoupling from the euro and dollar respectively), political drama in the U.S., Iran, Turkey, Ukraine and Germany or the long-rumored Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the call seemed to be for patience. Full Story
Some investors may be wondering whether they should own silver bullion or the silver mining stocks. I suggest owning both assets. If Indians are buying over 7000 tons a year, Western investors should buy some too. With the launch of the WSC (World Silver Council), silver mining companies may have a new friend. 2016 will be a great year for gold, and an even better one for silver! Full Story
Markets and economies usually run in cycles and there have been numerous previous reversals where falling interest rates have been replaced by rising interest rates. The soothing reassurances from many financial authorities and much of the financial media are that there is no need for the general public to worry – because this sort of thing is quite normal. Full Story
Gold is being capped at the 1071 level. This may or may not lead to one final attack to drive it to 1030 before the paper shorts get out of the way and let another bear market rally begin. Full Story
Most people assume that prices move as a result of changes in the money supply. Instead, let’s look at the effect of changes in interest. To start, consider a hamburger restaurant. Suppose that the average profit in the burger business is ten percent of invested capital. If MacDowell’s is thinking about expanding, it has to consider the interest rate. Why? Full Story
Christmas is my favorite holiday, as I’m sure it is for many of you reading this. We probably all agree that 2015 had more than its fair share of pain and tragedy around the world. But during Christmas, love and charity triumph—if only for a day—helping us recharge as we approach the new year. I remember accompanying my mum, who was a social worker in downtown Toronto, as she delivered what we call “Star boxes” to needy children on Christmas Eve. Named after the Toronto Daily Star, which still operates the Santa Claus Fund that started in 1906, the purpose of the gift parcels remains the same: to make sure that no child in Toronto under 13 is overlooked by Santa Claus. Full Story
As suspected, the gains seen last week in both gold and silver ( and copper for that matter) were primarily the result of short covering. My view is that the bulk of this was tied to year-end book squaring ahead of Christmas and the New Year’s holiday. Full Story
Forecasting today's volatile, high-frequency machine driven and manipulated futures markets using fundamental analysis is futile, as a great many precious metals bulls will attest. To complicate matters, an obsession with Fed policy dominates all markets. Officials at the Federal Reserve are often less than forthcoming and are just as bumbling as the Soviet bureaucrats when it comes to centrally planning our economy. Full Story
In the short term, China is still a mess, and the reasons are all but obvious. Greed and stupidity fuelled the bubble that popped back in June of this year. Some estimates put the number of individuals opening new accounts without high school diplomas at over 60%. Secondly, a large portion of these investors were playing the markets with borrowed money, otherwise known as trading on margin. Making matters worse to circumvent the limits placed by regular margin trading, many turned to the shadowy banking sector, where one could borrow up to ten times the value of one’s stock holding. Full Story
Okay, I admit, we all know that QE, fiat paper currencies, and central banks aren’t going away, so we should protect our purchasing power with physical gold and silver, preferably securely stored outside the banking system. Full Story
David Nicoski of Vermilion Technical Research makes his debut on the show - he deciphers the market dynamics from a technical perspective, in particular relative strength analysis. Starting last Wednesday, the market plunged sharply, fulfilling a bearish diamond pattern prophecy. Prominent economic analyst, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group rejoins the show on the heels of a pilgrimage to South Africa. Gary Dorsch, publisher of Global Money Trends Newsletter, notes how officials around the globe continue to debase their money to bolster ailing economies. Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com and the host discuss the expected Fed rate hikes, scheduled for as soon as next month. Full Story
Today, I would like to share with you an outline and some suggestions to consider about general emergency preparedness. We have written about getting out of the system (GOTS). Getting out of the system completely isn't possible for most people. Getting out of the system, (and to what degree) and having precious metals isn't going to be enough to keep you safe in an emergency situation. Being prepared for an emergency is something we all need to consider. Full Story
One of the most frustrating aspects of today’s financial system is the fact that the Fed is being lead by lifelong academics with no real world banking or business experience. Consider the cases of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. Neither of these individuals has ever created a job based on generating sales of any kind. Neither of them has ever had to make payroll. Neither of them has ever run a business. What are economic realities for business owners (e.g. operating costs, capital and profits) are just abstract concepts for Bernanke and Yellen. Full Story
After the losses seen in gold following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike last week, Bloomberg reports that some traders closed their bearish positions on the metal before year-end on speculation that physical purchases may pick up. Further, Bloomberg notes that the put-to-call ratio on SPDR Gold Shares has reached its lowest level since 2008, perhaps indicating that investors who were betting on further declines in gold prices are losing enthusiasm for this trade. Full Story
It is worth taking this time to review something that, based on some reader comments, may be the source of some confusion. The Monetary Metals fundamental price is measuring just that, the fundamentals. As with stocks or any other asset, our centrally banked, government-distorted markets can experience price volatility and even prices that deviate from the fundamentals for a long period of time. Full Story
GDP, employment and inflation are a Holy Trinity of economic indicators. However, reports on consumer activity are also extremely important for the financial markets. It is not surprising: consumers are the ultimate rulers of the economy and their actions affect GDP, corporate profits and stock prices, labor market, inflation, the housing market and so on. Full Story
The bottom line for precious metal investors is that junior exploration companies own the majority of the world’s future gold mines. This author believes that there is exceptional, and as of yet, undiscovered value in junior companies with quality assets in safe stable countries. Investors seeking leverage to precious metals should focus on these companies as they have historically provided the best exposure to a rising precious metals price environment. Full Story
An explanation for why I think the Fed and big banks were and are behind the manipulation of the gold market. It has nothing to do with propping up the dollar and everything to do with preventing the commodity markets from spiking and creating another recession. Full Story
Pat as this may sound, I expect stocks to continue their boring waft higher in the final days of 2015. I am not predicting any particular strength, only more of the same — i.e., a rally that will deftly exploit seasonality, but without achieving new record highs. Look for short-covering to carry the load, since bears left themselves badly on the ropes when last week ended. Ordinarily, I’d expect them to get squeezed to the point of bloody capitulation, for two reasons: 1) we have yet to see the parabolic blow-off that would put bears out of their misery; and, 2) the calendar will be working strongly against them. Full Story
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