When gold rose from its 1046 low last December, it was accompanied by motivating articles written by a plethora of excited gold analysts. Many of them unequivocally stated that gold’s long, grueling Bear Market had ended, and a new great Bull Market had begun. One after another, they fell over each other making glowing predictions of a new, major rise in gold. They were so convincing that they generated what I believe became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Their excitement helped draw an enormous amount of money into the eternal metal and the stocks that explore for or produce it. The result was a convincing Bear Market rally in the gold and silver complex, albeit temporary as is typical. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 2 December, 2016
The junior gold miners’ and explorers’ stocks have been crushed in recent months, collateral damage from enormous gold-futures selling. That’s naturally left investors and speculators extremely bearish on gold juniors. But lost in all this technical and sentimental tumult are important fundamentals from the juniors’ recently-reported third-quarter financial and operational results, which proved quite strong and bullish. Full Story
Last weekend, the Washington Post reported a new, McCarthy-type black list of "fake" political news sites. The mainstream reporting of the the current economic news is now so pathetic and biased that there will no doubt soon be a similar list of "fake" economic news sites. The "reporting" of today's disastrous employment report is just the most example. Full Story
Needless to say The Cartel’s power is enhanced when they can control Regional or Globalist Institutions, because they can play one state or interest group off against another. That is why they push for Regional (like the European Union and the North American Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership and TTIP, inter alia) or Globalist Entities, like the United Nations. Full Story
As it is quite often said (but just as often forgotten when things get volatile), no market can move up or down in a straight line. There have to be corrections along the way as some traders cash in their profits, others get scared out of their positions etc. The question is – where (at what price) is such a reversal likely to take place. Focusing on news and fundamental analysis alone will not provide you with an answer here, simply because the markets are not logical in the short term, but emotional (it is also the case in the medium term, but to a smaller extent). Full Story
Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics notes that the smart money, deep pockets and institutional investors are diversifying away the dollar exposure in favor of PMs. Our guest proposes that an enormous tonnage of gold was dropped on the market following the US election - nearly the entire US reserves at Fort Knox. The move is an "act of desperation by policymakers" to contain gold and give the false illusion of weakness. Full Story
Gold has been caught in the cross-fire, being a simple way for US-based hedge funds to buy into a rising dollar by selling gold short. While this pressure may persist, particularly if the euro weakens further ahead of the Italian referendum, it is essentially a temporary market effect. This article explains why this is so by analysing the next phase of the credit cycle, and the implications for interest rates and prices, which will be fuelled by higher US fiscal deficits in addition to China’s stockpiling of raw materials. It concludes that there are factors at work which were originally identified by Gordon Pepper, who was acknowledged as having the finest analytical mind in the UK Gilt market in the 1960s and 1970s. Full Story
The truth behind gold manipulation. The 1%’s strategy for harvesting the rest of us. Sanders, Chomsky and Schiff on how we got here and where we’re going. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 2 December, 2016
Unfortunately for the central banks that are now trying to prop-up their currencies relative to the US$, a central bank’s ability to weaken its currency is much greater than its ability to bring about currency strength. The reason is that weakening a currency can usually be achieved by increasing its supply, and if there is one thing that central banks are good at it’s creating money out of nothing. Actually, creating money out of nothing, and, in the process, engaging all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, is the ONLY thing they are good at. Full Story
Next Tuesday will mark four weeks since Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his surprise demonetization announcement that has sent shockwaves throughout the South Asian country’s economy. In an effort to combat corruption, tax evasion and counterfeiting, all 500 and 1,000 rupee banknotes are no longer recognized as legal tender. Full Story
Investors need to focus on the two key long term structural changes now underway which are going to ignite destructive global dislocations through early 2020. To better understand why this is going to occur we need to place them in context by first examining the major economic cycles currently underway. Full Story
In a nutshell, the war on everything of value has commenced, via desperate government attempts to maintain power by propping the value of things with little or no value. Unquestionably, the world is on the cusp of political, economic, and monetary history. In which, if you simply hold physical gold and silver, you will be better positioned to “win” than perhaps 99% of the global population. Full Story
Conclusion: the market appears to be starting out on another major upleg within the giant parallel uptrend channel shown on the 10-year chart above, on which you will also find a prospective target for this uptrend, that is a long way above current levels. If this interpretation is correct, any short-term reaction will present a buying opportunity. Full Story
If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of a carry trade, it occurs when you borrow in one currency, usually at a very low interest rate, and then invest the money in another security, whether it be a bond, stock or what have you, that is denominated in another currency. Globally over $10 TRILION of $USD is doing this right now. $10 Trillion: an amount greater than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. Full Story
John Embry, Senior Strategist of Sprott Asset Management comments on the purported 8,000 tons of paper gold dropped on the market. 8,000 metric tons (2204 lbs.), 17.6 million lbs., 282 million ounces, were unleashed on the PMs sector, equivalent to a Tsunami of selling pressure. The institutions and big players are clearing their short positions in anticipation of an explosive move to the upside by gold / silver. Full Story
Many hyperinflations have occurred in the past 100 years. Example: Argentina has devalued against the U.S. dollar by 10 trillion to one since about 1950. The continued devaluation of the U. S. dollar, loss of reserve currency status, and coming massive “stimulus” spending could result in hyperinflation in the United States. Silver will reach incredible prices in such a disastrous situation. Few if any will be pleased with the consequences of hyperinflation, but owning silver will help mitigate the trauma. Full Story
This brings us to next week’s vote in Italy where they are worried about the possibility of a defeat for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reform referendum not going the Prime Ministers way. He has said that he would resign if he loses this referendum and if he does then an election would follow swiftly. According to the polls the populist Five Star Movement, led by Beppe Grillo, a famous comic, could win and become the new governing body. Full Story
Exchange traded investment vehicles backed by physical gold refer to a group of trusts, funds, or other legal entities which hold gold bars with a custodian in a vault and which issue securities, units or other fractional ownership claims against that gold. These securities are pitched and marketed as an alternative to direct ownership of gold bullion and these products have seen significant expansion and evolution over the last 10-12 years. Full Story
We recently learned how serious these criminals are about stealing the sovereignty of every person on planet earth. Actually, most people are willingly handing over their sovereignty to the banks/government and have no idea what they are actually doing. When India ban, made illegal, the 500 and 1000 rupee banknote this move effected every 1 out of 7 people on planet earth. That means that every 7th person, anywhere and everywhere, you come in contact with may have been effected by this cash ban. Full Story
The US dollar index has again broken above 100 for the fourth time in the past two years, which has closely correlated with cresting rate hike expectations of the Fed. The last time the CME Group’s Fed Fund Futures probability for this December meeting rose above 90 percent was the first week in January of this year – before global market pressures significantly reduced expectations, which very likely had a negative feedback effect on the near-term outlook for growth and hence the economic data downstream in the following months. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Paul Kasriel - 1 December, 2016
In the true spirit of stepping outside the box, today’s OTB is a counterintuitive argument against the concept that fiscal deficits and/or infrastructure spending constitute effective economic stimulus. It comes from Paul Kasriel, who was one of my favorite reads when he was at Northern Trust, and I am glad he continues to write in “retirement.” He always has a way of looking at things from different angles than everybody else does. Full Story
Like rising interest rates, a soaring currency is in effect a tax increase on anyone hoping to sell US-made goods to foreign customers. A Ford Explorer, for instance, is priced in dollars when exported. So a more expensive dollar means a more expensive – and therefore harder to sell – SUV. Lower sales for US corporations mean lower profits and, if history is any guide, lower share prices. The point of all this is that some serious headwinds are kicking up at a time when equities and bonds are priced for perfection and government policy both here and abroad is in flux. Which will make 2017 a fascinating, though probably not a fun, year. Full Story
Like most financial assets, home prices have been stuck in a sideways trend since 2014 and by all appearances weren’t going anywhere anytime soon. The chart shown here from the Calculated Risk blog shows the CoreLogic Home Price Index from a yearly percentage change standpoint. The dramatic increase in the tax and regulatory burden courtesy of the outgoing regime contributed to this standstill. In the last several months it was the uncertainty over the November presidential election which contributed to subdued speculative activity in the financial markets. Full Story
By: Stefan Gleason and Jp Cortez - 30 November, 2016
There are plenty of economic problems to address, but the lack of sound money lies at the heart of them all. The Federal Reserve Note – a privately issued, un-backed debt instrument that supplanted our gold and silver backed U.S. dollar – has lost more than 90% of its purchasing power since Nixon severed the final link to gold in 1971. Politicians and central bankers have since been borrowing and printing currency without restraint to bankroll today’s bloated and insolvent federal government. Full Story
The fact that the gold market recovered so quickly confirms that demand is definitely alive and well, and that the RSI in the low 20s is strongly hinting at a short-term bottom for the precious metals. In fact, in closing out the week above $1,180, gold held critical support, which would be the best tape action in over three months. Full Story
These types of indications are usually seen as markets bottom. Yet, many traders in the market are now pressing their shorts after the neckline of the “clear” heads and shoulders pattern has broken, and this is something I also warned about weeks ago. But, if the entire market sees this “clear” heads and shoulders pattern, and discusses it ad nauseam as we see today, do you think it will play out as the majority of the market believes? Moreover, do you know what happens when a heads and shoulders pattern fails? We see a violent move in the opposite direction. Full Story
Castro’s death comes at a pivotal moment in U.S.-Cuban relations. With trade between the two countries on the path to normalization, and with U.S. airlines making scheduled flights to Havana for the first time in more than 50 years, President-elect Donald J. Trump has pledged to reinstate many of the Cold War embargos that were lifted by President Barack Obama. Full Story
We believe that the primary objective of the Indian currency demonetization was to sharply reduce gold demand in the world’s most important retail market, India, one that is controlled by the Deep State oligarchy via a captured agent, its Prime Minister. The manner in which the demonetization was carried out indicates some kind of desperation, because it defied all economic prudence, logic, humanitarian regard and common sense. India is the only country where this kind of attack on demand could have been carried out, and this is why it occurred there. It indicates to us that the bullion banking cabal is coming up against the wall, and that there is severe supply – demand stress in the global gold market that is rapidly becoming non-containable. Desperate times are producing desperate measures by the manipulators. Full Story
Well, we've finally reached "contract expiration" day as the Dec16 Comex gold and silver contracts go off the board and into "delivery" at the close today. With total Comex open interest now back to the levels of last December, could price finally be near a bottom? As usual, we must look at the USDJPY for clues. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 29 November, 2016
There's a lot going on in the world - from Trump being elected in the U.S. to turmoil in the middle east, the China Sea and Turkey, Russia is flexing it’s still considerable might, North Korea’s flinging it’s nukes helter skelter, Japan’s rearming, disease runs rampant and fear escalates about virus mutation, there’s shortages of fresh water with many rivers not reaching their former endpoint and of course climate change is rearing its head to destabilize natural rhythms or cycles. Full Story
Trump’s win proves that mainstream Media is in trouble; it is going to be all downhill from here except for the ones that parted ways and tried to provide accurate coverage of what was going on. The crowd will turn increasingly to social media and outlets that focus on facts as opposed to fiction. Mainstream media is in for a painful ride as the crowd is not going to forgive them so easily for their transgressions; the only exceptions being the ones that portrayed an accurate image of what was taking place. Full Story
As of today, a billion Muslims will have the means to legally invest in gold products that were previously off-limits. This is very important news for the world gold community. It should add about 1000 tons of demand over the next 12 months. It will also help to make gold a more respected mainstream asset. Bullion ETFs and perhaps even gold stock ETFs like GDX will be enthusiastically embraced. The official launch date has not been announced, but I’m predicting it will occur before this year ends! Full Story
Former Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher recently gave a speech identifying the Federal Reserve’s easy money/low interest rate policies as a source of the public anger that propelled Donald Trump into the White House. Mr. Fisher is certainly correct that the Fed’s policies have “skewered” the middle class. However, the problem is not specific Fed policies, but the very system of fiat currency managed by a secretive central bank. Full Story
Extremely heavy positive volume in the 3X ETFs, such as NUGT, JNUG, LABU and ERX, have been quite predictive of intermediate cycle lows and bullish trending moves that follow. The SPX 500 has made a breakout to new highs but it is possible that this move was manufactured by big money to escape their long positions. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 29 November, 2016
A modern economy typically involves millions of individuals making decisions about consumption, production and investment based on a myriad of personal preferences. It should be obvious that such a ‘system’ could never be properly described by any mathematical equation, let alone a simple one-line equation. And yet, many economists and other commentators on economics-related matters base their analyses on simple equations. Full Story
The gold and silver producers made a blistering start to the year; however, the second half of the year has been a totally different story. The chart below depicts the rise and fall of the gold producers which make up the Gold Bugs Index the HUI. This Index has now fallen 60% from its recent high of 282 which suggests to us that the selling pressure should be just about exhausted. Overall the HUI remains some 72.2% off its high (630-175) made in 2011, so there is plenty of room for the stocks to rise once gold resumes its bull market. Full Story
By: Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler - 29 November, 2016
Black Friday and “Black Friday” weekend have largely become irrelevant. Every retailer in the U.S., from auto dealers to furniture stores to online tennis apparel shops have been advertising “Black Friday” sales since November 1st. We have no doubt that the Census Bureau will concoct phony holiday sales for November (reported December 14) and December (reported in January). But the truth – the non-Russian influenced truth – is that retail sales spending per capita this holiday on an inflation-adjusted basis is going to be less than in 2015. Full Story
Trump has won the election. For this we should be truly grateful, because the alternative was pure evil and could have ended us all. And you can see the relief in people aware of this possibility everywhere, with true-hearts the happiest they have been in years. What’s more, this euphoria is being carried over to the financial markets in a big way as well, with 1000 swings higher in the Dow as billionaires pile back into stocks, economy sensitive commodities soaring, and cost of money breakouts above decade long trend-lines hitting the tape. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 29 November, 2016
What is interesting here, is that GFMS forecasts the number one silver producer, Mexico, to be down in 2016 by more than 6 Moz. Last year, I forecasted that global silver production would likely be lower in 2015. I was going by data by the “World Metals Statistics.” However, Mexico’s INEGI (government agency) considerably revised their figures higher for 2015. While I have seen revisions take place, the revisions by Mexico’s INEGI for 2015 were quite substantial. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 November, 2016
Yes, GATA has not yet wiped the tyranny of central banking from the face of the earth. But we have exposed to a wide audience -- an audience including at least two major governments -- the part of that tyranny that rigs the gold and currency markets, and have explained how this ultimately rigs all markets for totalitarian and imperialistic purposes. We have evidence that people are acting on this knowledge and that our work has forced the market riggers to expend even more resources and become even more obvious. Full Story
Technology is poised to redefine life-as-we-know-it, including government. There are numerous books that advance this outlook in great detail, among which are Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization, and Regenesis: How Synthetic Biology Will Reinvent Nature and Ourselves. And putting technology in an economics context, Human Action: Scholar’s Edition. Full Story
In a Frank Talk last week, I discussed the surge in small-cap stocks since Donald Trump’s election. A bet on smaller domestic stocks, I wrote, is a bet that Trump will deliver on his promise to “make America great again.” He plans to lower taxes, streamline regulations and spend big on infrastructure—all of which has led to a rally in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index and the 10-Year Treasury yield. Full Story
Greece is the first country to push for a carry tax on physical cash. It won’t be the last. This policy has been floating around in Central Banking circles for years. The fact that it’s now being openly promoted only proves how desperate the elites are getting about the state of the financial system. Watch, the moment things turn south in the US in a big way, similar proposals will start cropping up here too. Full Story
The hoaxing, lying, dying Mainstream Media. Many names are given to this band of happy, merry hacks, that pretend to believe they are the "fourth estate". Yet, those of us who are truly "awake" know better. We can see them for exactly what they are, an extension of the corrupt establishment that attempts to rule over our daily lives and keep us in a constant state of confusion, informing us of half truths and guiding us sometimes gently, other times bluntly, away from the bigger picture. Full Story
With new stimulus planned for 2017, the chart below poses a good question, particularly for gold investors: Will inflation recede? One can observe in the chart that investors only started accumulating physical gold via exchange-traded funds about six months after inflation started to lift. With new infrastructure spending plans construction inputs such as copper has jumped, is it likely inflation is going to recede from historic lows? The upcoming interest rate hike may be an opportunity to add to gold and gold stocks going into year end. Full Story
This will be a shorter letter, in keeping with the need for holiday fun and relaxation. However, last week’s letter with my thoughts on what Trump should do generated more responses than any other letter had in the last 17 years. As you might suspect, with a topic so controversial, not everyone agreed with me. But there were many good questions and comments and some thoughtful disagreements, so I want to address a few of those. Full Story
For as long as I can remember (and I have a very good memory), it started with Santa Claus and it will never end until the day I die: Somehow someone somewhere in some position of authority is telling me to believe in this, that, or the other. I hate the word “belief”. I cringe when someone says, “I believe”, or “I’m a believer in…”, or “It is my belief”. Yada, yada, yada …blah, blah, blah. Full Story
We read articles this week, reporting that China is considering additional limits on importing gold, that the premium for gold in China hit a 3-year high, and imports into China fell in the month of October. At the same time, imports to India rose moderately in October, and of course there are rumors India will ban gold imports too. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 28 November, 2016
The previous chart showed a rally target of moderate importance at 2250.00 derived from a low recorded on November 9. Here’s an alternative target at 2240.50 that comes from a larger pattern (see inset). There is yet one more target at 2299.00 that is also in play from an even bigger bullish pattern. The important thing to note here is that the uptrend has demolished midpoint Hidden Pivots associated with each of the targets, implying there is still quite a bit of power pushing the 'Trump rally.' Full Story
John Williams aka Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. Peter is one of the few investment advisors to have correctly called the current bear market before it began and to have positioned his clients accordingly. As a result of his accurate forecasts of the mortgage meltdown, credit crunch, and decoupling of commodities, precious metals, and foreign markets from the U.S. Dollar, he has become a sought-after economic commentator on a range of investment topics. Full Story
Many are the potential fuses to be lit, which would create the conflagration, the massive bonfire of the bond vanities and bank charades. Many are the fuses lying around, all criss-crossed, all exposed, all overlapping each other in highly dangerous manner. If any single fuse is lit, then several will light and the detonation arrives. It is unavoidable since the financial world is so deeply interwoven. Never in modern history has the global financial structure been so badly weakened, so totally corrupted, so thoroughly undermined by control mechanisms, so intensely defended by sanctions even war. In 2007 and early 2008, the Jackass warned of a mortgage bust that would alter the global system forever. It happened with far reaching consequences which endure to this day. Full Story
No rest for the wicked. With the shockwaves from Brexit and President Trump still reverberating around the world, the established order is bracing for more bad news. Next up is a December 4 Italian constitutional referendum that might end the reign of centrist prime minister Matteo Renzi and replace him with a bunch of anti-euro iconoclasts from the Brexit/Trump part of the spectrum. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 27 November, 2016
Last week we wrote that the 2016 bull market in Gold and gold stocks had gone off course. It had moved too far out of the historical boundaries to remain a bull market. There was also other evidence of such including but not limited to rising real yields. Gold’s last hope was to hold $1200-$1210 and rebound back to the highs. It has broken bull market support ($1200-$1210 and $1230) and could be on its way to $1050 in the next few months. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 27 November, 2016
The Money Insights internet site has published a summary of the organization of the central bank gold price suppression scheme, showing how it is part of a much broader system of the rigging of the international currency markets whose mechanisms are visible but whose operations are secret. Full Story
Chinese gold demand is still going strong this year, albeit less than in 2015. The most likely reason for somewhat lower demand has been the strength in the price of gold in the first three quarters of this year, to which the Chinese reacted by somewhat subduing purchases. From 1 January until 30 September 2016, the gold price went up 24 % in US dollars per troy ounce, from $1,061.5 to $1,318.1; measured in renminbi the price went up 28% over the same period. Full Story
Why, did you know that in a note to clients Tom Lee wrote that Donald Trump’s term could usher in major bull market akin to those preceded by Ike and Reagan? He did, in a note to clients and the MSM really wants you to know about it! Now, there is a case that eventually his favored areas of Energy, Mining, Basic Materials, etc. will out perform. But that word “eventually” is an important one, unless you are a died in the wool trickle downer willing to ride the big correction or bear market that is likely first. Full Story
So the outlook a little further out—combined with easy money around the world, stronger Indian demand, possible geopolitical turmoil, and a decline in mine production—will be a higher gold price. The question for us is, at what point does the near term turn into the further out. We will likely see a stronger dollar (and lower gold) heading into the rate hike, but that could well prove a turning point, as it did last December. We would also add that the withdrawals from gold ETFs are probably overdone, while stock valuations, among both miners and exploration companies, are very favorable. Full Story
Not just the euro, but the entire European Union may be in jeopardy next week when the Italians vote on a constitutional referendum initiated by Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. What a Jubilee year it has been. First Brexit, then Trump and now it appears Italy is on the cusp of also escaping the grasp of the European Union. After two years of directly covering trends involved with the disintegration of Western culture in my book Shemitah Trends, I can say with confidence that what has been built up is being torn down. That includes the European Union which will either gradually or abruptly collapse into various pieces. Full Story
It’s always nice to have this long weekend before we make the mad dash to Christmas. With stocks generally strong into Christmas and all the cheer of the season, it’s always a busy and fun time of year. Stocks are setting up very well with lots of buy levels right now, BUT, we are quite overbought so a few days of rest and consolidation is needed right now before we resume the uptrend into years end. Metals continued to show weakness, with the exception of palladium, and they are not looking greta at all. Full Story
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