With gold and silver on the defensive following a dramatic midnight raid on gold prices last week, Mike Gleason reached out to Chris Powell, Secretary Treasurer at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, also known as GATA to discuss possible gold price manipulation. Mike Gleason: Several days ago, we had another attack on the gold market – right as it was holding above a critical price support zone. Someone sold several billions of dollars in gold futures contracts during the wee hours of the night immediately before the Chinese trading day began. It happened during a time of low liquidity like it normally does, and it took the price down over $40 in the matter of a few seconds, halting trading twice for a brief period. What are we to make of all this Chris? Full Story
Imagine logging into your brokerage account tomorrow and finding out that it’s frozen. Not just your account… every customer account at your brokerage is frozen. You can’t buy stocks. You can’t sell stocks. You can’t move money out of the account. Your account rep insists the money is still there. It’s just not available now. He doesn’t know when it will be. When you demand to transfer $25,000 cash out of the account, he says, “I’m sorry… the system won’t let me.” Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 31 July, 2015
Gold has certainly had a rough summer, facing withering selling pressure from record futures shorting. The resulting new secular lows have greatly exacerbated the already-extreme bearish psychology long plaguing this metal. But considering the howling headwinds gold has suffered in recent years, it has actually proved amazingly resilient. This indicates strong latent demand due to accelerate as sentiment shifts. Full Story
Let's look at two different topics where we are seeing contradictory "evidence". First up is what's happening in the gold and silver markets. Never before have I seen sentiment as poor as it is today. Nor have I seen so many negative articles about gold in the various mainstream publications. It has gotten so bad, gold has even been compared to "pet rocks"! While we have seen food fights before, the name calling as of late has become deafening led recently by Martin Armstrong and Cliff Droke. I wonder how or what their response is to the physical side of the argument? Full Story
What could revive gold and oil prices from their current cyclical lows? It was quantitative easing that pushed prices up after the last global financial crisis. Is it about to happen all over again? Central banks in the Western world have set the scene for an ‘even bigger version’ of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, Societe Generale’s bearish strategist Albert Edwards said in a research note yesterday. Full Story
The normally low-key Swiss gold refining market has been thrown into the spotlight with the announcement that private company Valcambi, the world’s largest gold refinery, is being acquired by Indian group Rajesh Exports Ltd (REL), the world’s largest gold jewellery manufacturer. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 31 July, 2015
If you are a precious metals investor, you need to see this chart. Matter-a-fact, this is the first time (to my knowledge) in the history of precious metals analysis that the information in this chart has been made public. One look at this chart and the investor will see the the huge difference between the cost to produce the precious metals. Full Story
The main idea of the report is that there is a constant struggle between deflationary and inflationary forces. Since 2011, disinflationary forces have clearly dominated the market (think about the declines in commodity prices). According to the authors, this is why so many market participants have lost faith in gold. However, if the inflation trend reverses, excellent opportunities in inflation-sensitive investments such as gold will emerge. Full Story
I’ve been bearish on gold for so long that my successively lower targets have become almost perfunctory. Lately, I’ve focused on a ‘Hidden Pivot’ target at $817, the attainment of which would presumably wash out the last of the die-hard bulls, clearing the way for a resumption of the long-term bull market. Now, however, I am obliged to consider an alternative possibility — i.e., an explosive move without the washout. Although I lack the imagination to envision such world-shaking news as might cause this to happen, I credit a relatively recent Rick’s Picks subscriber, Michael Gibbons, with jarring me awake. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 30 July, 2015
When a trend remains in place for a while, people tend to think it will continue forever. When it reverses, the shock can be widespread. Just as currency speculators over-estimated the strength of the U.S. economy in 2000, I believe they are making the same mistake again today. But the U.S. economy is actually much weaker and more vulnerable now than it was in 2000. If the spell of confidence surrounding the Dollar is broken, it may also reverse the fortunes of other beaten down currencies. This could present a sea change in the global investment landscape for which wise investors should be prepared. Full Story
Again, I can't overstate how unusual this is and how different it is from the norm. In a "normal" month where total deliveries came in at 85%, we would have seen about 2,300 total deliveries. Instead, we saw 3,637. Therefore, we're left to conclude that and additional 1,300 contracts were demanded for immediate delivery in July. This means that someone or something funded their account with 100% margin, jumped the "queue" and demanded immediate delivery of 6,500,000 ounces of silver. At prices ranging around $15/ounce, that's nearly $100,000,000. Full Story
I guess the new policy regarding the presentation of economic data that has been implemented by the Obama Government is, “if you don’t the results the first time around, make shit up to make it look better the second time.” After all the media will zero in on the newly fabricated statistics and that will become the Orwellian Truth. Besides, the public doesn’t care.” Full Story
In the world of basic commodities nearly every market participant, whether a producer or consumer, is a price taker, accepting the general price level prevailing at the time. For example, the individual consumer of gasoline has little choice but to take the price at the pump or go elsewhere. Same with corporate consumers like airlines and other transportation entities. They can hedge and fix their costs, but that hedging must be based upon current prevailing prices. Even large producers like the oil companies must take what prices the market provides, although the largest oil producers, like Saudi Arabia, could set (make) oil prices if it wanted to (at least temporarily). Full Story
Anyone with a nose for markets will tell you that the Chinese government's attempt to rescue the country's stock markets from collapse is far from succeeding. Bubbles collapse, period; and government interventions don't stop them. Furthermore, we are beginning to see a crack widen in the foundations of China's capital markets that could end up undermining the whole economy. Full Story
At the risk of offending nearly everyone I am going to wade into a hot topic; namely, Armstrong’s war against gold promoters. Armstrong and a few others nailed the top in the price of gold. That is not up for debate. What is open for debate is why people promote gold and why some are “complacent” enough to take the price at face value. Full Story
More and more insiders are warning of a potential systemic event. The first sign of real trouble concerned a number of investment legends choosing to close shop and return investors’ capital. The first real titan to bow out was Stanley Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller maintained average annual gains of nearly 30% for 30 years. He is arguably one of if not the greatest investor of the last three decades. Full Story
The bearish target at 1059.70 (see chart) seems clear and compelling to me — so much so as to beg the question of why the futures have been thrashing around for the last two weeks just above it. Is this a bullish consolidation? A bearish distribution? Regardless, it is happening in an odd place relative to some clear Hidden Pivot support and resistance levels. My hunch is that the chop is distribution, and that we will see August Gold fall to at least 1059.70 before bulls can mount a decent rally. Full Story
Anyone who has been bearish on gold for the last 4 years has been right. They have been right in Euros and though the trend appears to have been gently changing over the last year or two, they have been right in Canada & Aussie (i.e. commodity currencies) dollars as well. Certainly, they have been right that gold as measured in most global stock markets has been (and remains) bearish. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 July, 2015
For 15 years my organization, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, has been documenting the surreptitious intervention in the gold market by Western central banks. By their own admissions, the central banks are surreptitiously intervening in the gold market every day, or nearly so, to control the gold price to prevent it from becoming an accurate measure of other currency values. Full Story
It’s 5:00 AM PST, and to say I’m tired is the understatement of the century. I’m in Vancouver for Eric Sprott’s annual investment conference, where the Miles Franklin crew is spending time with some of the continent’s smartest people. Last night was a particularly late one, and today Andy Schectman and I are giving two presentations. That said, I wanted to pen a few thoughts before heading to the conference – about not only the imploding global economy, but blindingly obvious upward “drift” of government-rigged “markets” ahead of this afternoon’s meaningless FOMC statement. Not to mention, equally blatant intervention to support the collapsing Chinese stock market; and of course, cap precious metals. Full Story
After examining 14 million records, including data on campaign contributions, lobbying expenditures, federal budget allocations and spending, we found that, on average, for every dollar spent on influencing politics, the nation’s most politically active corporations received $760 from the government. The $4.4 trillion total represents two-thirds of the $6.5 trillion that individual taxpayers paid into the federal treasury. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 29 July, 2015
There is a rising trend in the silver market that has the bankers worried. This may seem like a play on hype, but I can assure you… the facts are clear. If we look at the data in the silver market, there was a distinct change that took place in 2008. Basically, the U.S. Banking system died in 2008 and more investors are finally catching on. Full Story
When the market made it clear three years ago that much lower levels were going to be seen, as the bottoming set up we were tracking was invalidated in June of 2012, I put out the lower targets we have had on our metals charts for the last three years. And, during those last few years, many of you have questioned me about us being able to strike those targets, as they seemed too unbelievable to most. In fact, I have been warned by many market participants, as well as other analysts, that if I wait for my targets, I will likely miss the next bull market. Well, I don’t think we have missed much, and, in fact, have done quite well with our short side trades. Full Story
The financial press and blogosphere are still exploring the topic of Chinese reserves. Recently, some voices have arisen that China supported the recent plunge of the gold price in order to boost its reserves. Are these opinions justified? The disappointment increase in China’s reserves led to a heated debate. On Friday, two articles were published (here and here), which suggest that China manipulated the gold market by under-reporting its official reserves to lower the gold price and increase its reserves. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 28 July, 2015
GATA can speak only for itself. But one reason for owning gold is a belief that enough publicity will help expose the manipulation, push investors out of imaginary gold underwritten by central banks and into real metal, and liberate gold into a free market, wherein its value relative to other currencies will rise. In any case GATA isn't telling people how to invest and is not an investment adviser. It's a nonprofit educational and civil rights organization aiming to advance free markets, especially in the monetary metals. Full Story
One of the most commonly held beliefs among gold investors is that the market for gold is heavily manipulated. It has become an article of faith among gold advocates that the price is subject to direct control by government, central banks and other parties who have a vested interest in depressing the gold price. In this commentary we’ll explore this belief and try to arrive at a firm conclusion as to its veracity. Full Story
The Gold/Housing ratio is a quite useful measure for evaluating relative values between real estate and gold, and also has an interesting historical track record for identifying turning points in long-term gold price trends. In light of the commodities rout occurring in the summer of 2015, and the continuing strength in housing – it is worthwhile revisiting this basic measure, because the results aren't at all what most people likely think they are. Full Story
Are you worried about the stock market? If you are, you’re in the minority of investors. Greece… China… don’t worry about it! At least that seems to be Wall Street’s reaction to what could have been a catastrophic fall of dominoes if the European and Chinese governments hadn’t come to the rescue with another massive monetary intervention. Full Story
With a move yesterday by JPM to reclassify 104,000 ounces of gold from registered to eligible, the total Comex registered vault has fallen to the lowest level in recent memory. Now, I can show you any number of CME Gold Stocks reports from the last few years that purport to show a total registered Comex vault of 600,000-800,000 ounces of gold. That yesterday's report shows only 378,476 ounces is remarkable and interesting but not the point of this post. Full Story
This is a busy week. Today is “options expiry day”; COMEX August gold options expire. As options expiry day approaches, gold tends to trade in a sideways pattern near round numbers, and $1100 is the number in focus now. Also, the FOMC meets today and tomorrow. They release a statement at 2PM tomorrow about the Fed’s interest rate policy. Full Story
Eventually the gold and silver certificates disappeared and Federal Reserve Notes replaced them. The Federal Reserve Notes looked similar to gold and silver certificates, but sadly, they were nothing more than a piece of paper that represented a loan from (hence the word “note”) or obligation of the United States, issued by the Federal Reserve. Full Story
While taking a short vacation last week, this article was intended to be my first one upon returning. That plan was squashed a week ago with the brutal "interventions" upon gold and silver during the illiquid overnight hours early Sunday morning. Let me add to what I wrote last Friday by saying the phrase "TIME AND SALES"! For anyone who does not know what this means, any trade on any market anywhere in the world has a "paper trail". It is called a "time and sales report". Very simply, it reports who traded what, in what amounts and to whom. Once the broker is identified, then regulators can query as to who the customer was for whatever trade in question. If they want to know "whodunit", it's quite simple. Full Story
If there is an argument for buying gold stocks now it is this: prices in relation to the gold price are very low by historic standards and if you want to pick up more than a few shares in a rebound then you need to accumulate them now while this market is so far out of favor. You may not be able to buy many at these low prices when they do finally turn. Time to buy anybody? Full Story
As many of you know, I was in San Francisco the week before last where I had been invited to speak at the MoneyShow, one of the biggest, most preeminent investor conferences in the world. Over the past couple of decades, I’ve spoken at many MoneyShows all around the country and have covered many different topics. Gold investing is one that often draws a big crowd. Not this year. Guess which natural resource stole the show? Full Story
First, congratulations for mustering the popular support to say “no” to the troika. The euro has long offered Greece a perverse incentive to borrow, and now your country is trapped in debt. By any conventional means, Greece cannot repay (I propose an unconventional way, below). The sooner everyone acknowledges this simple fact the better. Full Story
Revisionism, according to Harry Elmer Barnes, is bringing history into accord with the facts. Why would history and factual evidence be at odds? Because governments, per Orwell, falsify the past to keep the population subservient. If people really knew what governments had done they would want less of it than they have. Full Story
The vultures are circling. Precious metals bulls, laid flat by gold and silver prices dropping for the 5th week in a row, are watching deflationists such as Harry Dent and the financial media squawk about the imminent demise of precious metals. We covered the superficial and condescending coverage of the metals markets in the financial press last week. Since then, the financial press has stepped it up even more. Full Story
From the day back in 2004 that I first read James Turk’s analysis of the GLD ETF, I had suspected that GLD had been created to take investor money and accumulate a large pile of 400 oz bullion bars that would be used eventually to manage the growing western Central Bank short position in paper gold. Paper gold being the fraudulent, blunt instrument used to illegally manipulate the price of gold. Full Story
On Friday, confidence was in short supply. The patient will need regular check ups so that we can be on the spot and ready for the time when the likes of Friday’s microcosm becomes a trend in the macrocosm. As it stood, gold was down vs. stocks on the balance of the week, yield spreads eased again and people took Janet Yellen seriously when she Jawboned about interest rate hikes. Those are the existing trends. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 27 July, 2015
The recent nuclear non-proliferation agreement between Iran and the U.S. has created a firestorm debate in the Middle East and both sides of the Atlantic. While the deal is supposedly all about nuclear power and nuclear bombs, its practical implications are all about oil. But the conclusions we should make about its impact on the energy sector are far from clear. A ratification of the deal would allow Iran to make lucrative long term production and distribution contracts with foreign energy firms. However, freely flowing oil from Iran would add significant new oil supply into the world markets, disrupt U.S. plans to become an energy exporter, and could potentially put further downward pressure on prices. Full Story
On July 17, in the first update since 2009, the People’s Bank of China said it owns about 1,658 metric tons of gold, implying purchases of just 100 tons a year. That’s significantly less than consensus expectations and thus leaves the door open for further accumulation as China attempts to internationalize the renmimbi. Full Story
For those who are speculating on the dollar—i.e. most people—there was good news this week. The dollar rose almost a milligram, to 28.3mg gold. That’s a big gain, and welcome news for those who keep all of their eggs in the one dollar basket, perhaps because they don’t want to risk any of it on pet rocks. Full Story
According to our methodology, the primary uptrend on Wall Street is still intact; however, we are starting to observe some troubling signs which suggest that we may be in the final innings of this bull market. You will recall that for several months now, we have been stating that this remains a very split market with only half of the sectors participating in the ongoing advance. Accordingly, we have been suggesting that our readers only stay aligned with the leading stocks in the strongest areas and sectors. Full Story
John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program with his thoughts on the precious metals sector. The duo caution investors from parking too many investment portfolio eggs in paper assets, stocks / bonds given the abrupt rout in the Shanghai index. Richard Daughty, AKA "The Mogambo Guru," returns to the show with comments on the impending Fed rate hikes. Officials have borrowed far beyond their means, putting their constituents on the line in similar fashion as every other defunct government in economic history. Full Story
Friday’s rebound looked ever-so-slightly promising, since it followed a moderate selloff that did not quite achieve its ‘D’ target, 1064.00. Now, if bulls can push this erstwhile cinder block above the two peaks shown, it would generate an impulse leg with enough vigor, perhaps, to power a rally into week’s end. The burden of proof will remain on bulls nonetheless, and it should be noted that the last such impulse leg, in mid-June, sputtered out almost immediately, giving way to a $125 decline. Full Story
Over 2 years ago I presented my first analysis of this precious metals bear market. After extensive study of the characteristics of past bear markets, I forecast a brutal bear market that would undergo three psychological stages. The third stage would be a wrenching decline that would ultimately reach levels so shocking that it would cause the destruction of the gold investment class. My analysis, which was dubbed Plunger’s Flush, was met not just with skepticism but outright derision. I believe I know how Galileo felt. Full Story
Gold cracked support and plunged to new lows since the last update, which came as no surprise to us. So what now? We are seeing signs that a recovery rally is about to begin, but it probably won’t get all that far before a new downleg gets underway that sees gold make new lows again. It’s not just gold prices that are suffering – the entire commodity complex is in ragged retreat, with steep falls also in copper and oil. Why is this? The reason is that the gathering forces of deflation are starting to wreak havoc, and they are not going to be stopped by more QE – even if they print another $10 trillion to throw at the problem. Full Story
I can see people blaming specific Keynesians, such as Yellen or Bernanke, but not Keynesianism itself. They will not blame "Keynesian Economics" — unless it’s to update it. Voters will demand reforms. They’ll want heads to roll. Those at the top of the food chain will find a way to exploit their outrage, even if it means starting a major war. But as long as the government hasn't become a failed state Keynesianism itself will still be enthroned. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 26 July, 2015
In numerous TSI commentaries over the years I’ve written about the confusion in the minds of many analysts regarding what constitutes gold supply and the relationship between supply, demand and price in the gold market. I’ve also covered the issue several times at the TSI Blog, most recently on 24th June in the post titled “More confusion about gold demand“. I’m not going to delve into this subject matter again today other than to use the example of last Monday’s trading in GDX (Gold Miners ETF) shares to further explain a point made in the past. Full Story
Famously controversial futurologist, economist and business cycle expert Martin Armstrong, who forecast ‘$5,000+’ an ounce gold for 2016 on November 7th 2009 more than five years ago, now says gold touched rock bottom last week. His website comment last week said: ‘If we hold $1,084 for the weekly closing, then we can see a two week bounce and everyone will proclaim the low, so hurry up and buy more.’ Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 26 July, 2015
On Friday your secretary/treasurer sought comment from the World Gold Council and the investor or media relations offices of six large gold mining companies about last Sunday night's attack on the gold market. Only Newmont Mining responded, saying it had no comment. Not responding were the gold council, Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, Kinross, Anglogold Ashanti, and Agnico-Eagle. Full Story
And here we find ourselves, ensconced in this grand illusion. A hollowed out economy held together my a thin and evermore fragile veneer, predicated on hope and motivated by fear. Signs of stress are visible everywhere we look. From shrinking bond market liquidity, the re-inflation of the home equity bubble, the $1 trillion student loan debacle, overextended equity absurdity, to the blatant, overt, and direct manipulation of nearly all commodities. Full Story
Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis. They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity. But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably anticipated. Full Story
Last week saw markets top out, for now, at resistance levels and it wasn’t rocket science to predict after such a strong previous two weeks. That said, there are some stocks who are holding up so I did do some buying and it ended up being a solid week for myself and subscribers. Gold on the other hand continued to waterfall lower until Friday and we now look set to see shorts cover and we should see a range trade chop around for up to a couple of months. Full Story
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