By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 1 July, 2016
By far the greater bulk of gold owned in China is under the control of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and they are controlled by the Chinese Central Bank, the People’s Bank of China. Should they wish to confiscate their citizen’s and institution’s gold, it can be done overnight. This includes gold held in Hong Kong. We see Singapore bowing to the will of China in such an event too. Full Story
In the World Gold Council's Gold Investor magazine, Jiao Jinpu, Chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, reports that "In its first month, the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price’s trading volume was 105.91 metric tons of gold kilo bars, corresponding to a turnover of [renminbi] 27.94 billion and an average daily trading volume of 4.81 metric tons. 102.10 metric tons of gold were physically settled, addressing the market’s need for physical gold." Full Story
Europe is changing by the hour and the day at this point. In this analysis, I'm going to take a quick look at critical events that have happened in Italy in the last day or so, and how they relate to my recent Video Guide To Bail-Ins series. I will be using three current Bloomberg articles that came out in the space of about 7 hours as references. Full Story
The question at the heart of today’s market instability is the validity of fiat currency; that is to say, forms of money issued and sanctioned by individual governments, with no backing other than faith in those governments’ creditworthiness, and the enforcement of its use by law. The risks they impose on all of us will be evidenced one day by both the speed of the fall in each individual fiat money’s purchasing power, and inevitably by their comparison with gold’s more stable purchasing power. Essentially, an awareness of the dangers of unsound money will gradually become evident to every economic actor. Full Story
Just behind the podium of precious metals (occupied by gold, silver and platinum) is palladium – an important, but often overlooked investment commodity. Like in case of silver and platinum, the gold-to-palladium ratio indicates the current state of the precious metals market. Investors may benefit from watching a ratio, as it helps to determine the strength of gold compared to palladium. Technically, the number is the price of gold divided by the price of palladium. It shows how many ounces of palladium one ounce of gold can buy. Full Story
Gold is currently trading in excess of $1300 an ounce. This is well above the 1980 all-time high. However, this is an incomplete representation of what gold is trading at relative to US dollars. When you look at the gold price relative to US currency in existence (US Monetary Base), then it is close to the lowest value it has ever been.
This in itself is a major warning regarding the sustainability of the current monetary system. In other words, the monetary system is the most debased it has ever been. Furthermore, not only is the monetary system at an all-time high stress-point, but also, this comes at the worst possible time relative to other key conditions. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 1 July, 2016
Global Financial Assets are more inflated and propped up than ever. According to the most recent figures published by The City UK Fund Report, total Global Conventional Assets under management topped $105 trillion in 2014. That’s one hell of a lot of future PAPER CLAIMS. Unfortunately for most investors, the majority of these supposed assets will evaporate into thin air from where-ith they came. Bubbles were designed for children to make and play with… not meant for adults to use in the financial industry. Full Story
I am beginning to wonder if it is even possible for a bank to fail in this brave new world of ours. Not that I am wishing it but the moral hazard that has been created by the attitude among Central Bankers towards banks in general must inevitably give rise to laxness and carelessness when it comes to risk taking by banks themselves. AFter all, if one understands that they are “TOO BIG TO FAIL” then the tendency will be to get aggressive when it comes to risk taking and throw caution and prudence out the window in the quest for ever higher profits. Full Story
Last Thursday, as I was coaching my son’s little league team on their improbable quest to Williamsport… I glanced at the headlines rapidly breaking in Britain: the vote was swelling towards the Brexit. My first thought was to discount the panic tone of the initial reports, as it was still early in the tally with much of the vote outstanding. In retrospect, my instinct to qualify the hyperbole spoke to a larger fallacy at play. In truth, the writing had been on the walls for some time. Full Story
I'm working on my mid-year review this week, where I provide revisions to the long, intermediate and short-term forecasts for gold and silver. I'll give you a hint: The long and intermediate are unchanged, but the short-term forecast for weakness into the end of July was going to be called into question until these Central Bankers decided to "rescue" the global stock markets with their incessant "interventions." Full Story
“Europe can collapse because of the refugee crisis and uncontrolled immigration,” says Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian Foreign Minister. “Only by a speedy transformation can we prevent a wildfire. The EU needs to be rearranged. Everyone, who is for Europe, also needs to be a force in making the necessary changes.” Full Story
The futures have blown past both of the targets given above, implying there may be considerable buying power remaining to be spent. I say “may be” because there is yet one more target just above, at 19.250, that could stop the rally. Price action at this target will not likely be penny-precise because it comes from a continuous chart that is based on the July contract, but the pivot should be accurate enough to allow us to gauge the power of the move. Full Story
Yes, it’s another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%. Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you’ve found at nftrh.com over the last few weeks. But if by chance you do want to look, here’s a visual path we have taken to arrive at the barn door, behind which are all those inflated chickens, roosting and waiting. All sorts of animals will get out of the barn if macro signals activate. Full Story
The second scandal -- maybe the bigger one, since government power is always to be suspected -- is the corruption of mainstream financial news organizations, which run away from reporting market rigging by government even when it is brazenly out in the open. The corrupt news organization identified in this case is Bloomberg News, but since all other major mainstream financial news organizations are almost certainly aware of the information being suppressed by Bloomberg, they are complicit with it. Full Story
By: Gordon T. Long and Ellen Brown - 30 June, 2016
The Financial Repression Authority is joined by Ellen Brown, a well renown author and advocate of financial reforms. FRA Co-founder, Gordon T. Long sits with Ellen to discuss a myriad of topics including the TTIP, Monsanto, Blockchain Technology, and bank bail-in’s. Ellen Brown is an American author, political candidate, attorney, public speaker, and advocate of alternative medicine and financial reform, most prominently public banking. Full Story
In recent past, I have cited the CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) report’s record open interest by large specs and record short open interest by commercials as a possible negative for Gold prices. Never one to trust myself, I decided to dig deeper to find out if my claim held water. In fact, there is no recent evidence that such extremes in commercial shorts and large spec longs are negative factors on subsequent price action. Full Story
By: Gordon T. Long and Peter Boockvar - 29 June, 2016
The shock is going to lead into some chaotic-type thinking, but while this is a gigantic inconvenience and reason for continued economic slowdown, over time the UK will adjust and trade with Europe the same way Norway and Switzerland does. For the rest of Europe, this raises the question of other countries deciding to leave. Full Story
Brexit has dominated world headlines for the last couple of weeks, and with good reason: The U.K.’s historic referendum has already roiled markets around the globe; raised serious questions about immigration, trade and diplomacy; cast a harsh spotlight on the EU’s avalanche of rules and regulations; and divided member states on the best way forward. Among other far-reaching consequences, Brexit could end up causing Europe to rethink its sanctions policy against Russia, following a vote in Brussels last week to extend them another six months. Full Story
The question for the investor should not be whether we shall see inflation or deflation. We shall see both. The rodeo is underway and we are, whether we wish to be or not, in the saddle of the bronc. Soon, the chute will open and he’ll start bucking for all he’s worth. When he does, it will matter little whether he bucks to the left or to the right. The only objective should be to ride it out. In investment terms, what this means is that we need to have avoided those investments that are most greatly at risk and have chosen instead those investments that are likely to be intact when the ride is over. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 29 June, 2016
The collapse of the U.S. economic and financial system accelerated this year, thus pushing the country closer to a third-world status. Most Americans are unaware of the dire consequences facing the nation, so they continue to believe business as usual will continue indefinitely. Unfortunately, lousy reporting by the Mainstream media along with the public’s denial and delusional thinking is a recipe for disaster for most Americans over the next several years. Full Story
Traders need to be careful for the rest of the week. In a natural market the daily cycle should still have further to fall and after a bounce there should be one more leg down. But as I have warned over and over, we no longer have free markets. We have not had free markets since the SEC banned short sales on financials back in 2008. So it’s entirely possible the PPT intervened today and that’s all we are going to get for an intermediate cycle low. Full Story
I am starting this week’s update with a mini-rant directed towards the manipulation theorists. For years, they have complained that one of the facts supporting their market manipulation theories is the “overnight” drops we have seen in the market, so I would like to take a moment to address that. Full Story
Brexit was and is everything because it was the first referendum by a first world nation, not so much on the EU even though leaving the EU was the issue voted on, but on the concept of the EU. Brexit was and is about divorcing from globalism itself and the tenets of globalism. Brexit is about being a nation again, not a doormat. It has everything to do with freedom and patriotism and people coming together even though the nation was still divided. It was about people getting their heads out of the sand and embracing something, then owning it, for better or for worse. In today’s world of bleating sheep, Brexit is a HUGE move. It is everything. And the establishment lost on June 23rd, regardless of how the vote turned out. Full Story
Throughout history, gold and silver have been the sole survivors found in the smoking ruins of failed kingdoms, borders, flags, and currencies. As markets began sinking like stones June 23rd, as bankers panicked, and as media pundits blathered, the price of liberty was paid, and the value of gold embraced. Both gold, and liberty, were destined to shine that night, no matter what the cost. Full Story
Unlike the Fed in America, the European central bank (ECB) has no European Treasury to back it in a crisis situation. That’s an upside price driver of gold of potentially gargantuan size, and the Brexit has magnified the dangers of an ECB collapse. For GDX, the $25 to $20 area is a key buying area during any pullback, and I invite the entire Western gold community to join me in that key accumulation zone, if it happens! Full Story
By: Mike Swanson, WallStreet Window - 28 June, 2016
Gold is acting as a safe haven as money is coming out of world currencies and stock markets across the globe into "safety trades" and some of that money is flowing into gold, silver, and mining stocks.
I know there is a stock market gap up this morning, but at the rate gold went up on Friday and Monday and that the US stock market is falling I believe that gold will approach $1,500 an ounce before this stock market drop ends. Full Story
If other states start to follow Britain’s lead, the EU may consolidate into a smaller, more tight-knit European superstate, which may hope to dominate the nations that pull out. I say that because Germany and France have a long-standing intense clench on power that already dominates the EU. They also share a Franco-Germanic history that may incline them to believe they can aggregate power around themselves, and those who are fundamentally seeking greater centralized power don’t become more democratic just so the center of a larger enterprise can hold. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 28 June, 2016
This could be the year that the mainstream investor finally pushes the gold market over the edge. While a fraction of investors continue to acquire a lot of physical gold, the mainstream investor is the key to driving the gold market and price going forward. Why? Because the diehard precious metal investors don’t have the sort of leverage as do the mainstream investors, which account for 99% of the market. I have stated several times in articles and interviews that it will be the surge of gold buying by the mainstream investor that will finally overwhelm the gold market. Full Story
Defying sentiment polls leading up to last week’s historic Brexit referendum, British voters said “thanks, but no thanks” to excessive EU taxation and regulation, choosing to take back Britain’s sovereignty in financing, budgeting, immigration policy and other areas essential to a nation’s self-identity. It was a momentous victory for the “leave” camp, led by former London mayor Boris Johnson and U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, who invoked the 1990s sci-fi action film “Independence Day” by declaring June 23 “our independence day” from foreign rule. Full Story
The selloff since Friday may seem momentous to trade-desk denizens, but so far it has barely caused a blip on the Dow’s weekly chart (see inset). Would another thousand-point selloff seem scary? As you can see for yourself, even that would not exceed any important prior lows. It would in fact require a further decline of 1638 points to do so — to suggest that the post-Brexit plunge is anything more than a nasty shakedown by those who control the markets with practically unlimited borrowing power. Full Story
Among the results for Japan: more deeply negative interest rates, with all the banking and bond market turmoil that that implies; falling corporate profits; plunging popularity for the current government and probable regime change in the next year or two; a financial crisis when investors figure out that there’s nothing left in the toolbox to stave off the debt/demographics-driven collapse of perhaps the most heavily-indebted government (in relation to its economy) that will ever exist. In a world of potential Lehman moments, Japan just climbed to the top spot. Full Story
With China already in a hard landing (real GDP growth is 3%-4% at best), China is in a position to stage a one off massive devaluation and blame the currency turmoil on the BREXIT. In short, the two largest economies in the world are contracting. One is entering a currency Crisis (China). The other’s currency is part of a $9 trillion carry trade (the US Dollar). This is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. No less than the Bond King Bill Gross has stated that we're heading for a massive crisis. Investing legends Carl Icahn, George Soros, and Stanley Druckenmiller are all taking out MASSIVE trades to profit from a market collapse. Full Story
Despite the surge in gold prices on Friday following the U.K. vote, it was the worst performing precious metal for the week, although still up 1.43 percent. Gold backed ETFs have seen a surge in assets this year as investors have started to discount that political leaders at the central banks around the world have lost their mojo, as you can see in the chart... Full Story
She’s unstoppable that Hillary Clinton – and the American people are going to get what they deserve in allowing ‘pure evil’ to inhabit the White House – yet again. Because there are other things that are unstoppable as well, like the trend towards accelerating decentralization in the world that unelected central planners (think ECB) and their corporate masters (think Western multinationals) will not be able to thwart forever. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 27 June, 2016
Gold has probably peaked for the year. Not necessarily in US$ terms, but in terms of other commodities. In fact, relative to the Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index (GNX) the peak for this year most likely happened back in February. The February-2016 peak for the gold/GNX ratio wasn’t just any old high, it was an all-time high. In other words, at that time gold was more expensive than it had ever been relative to commodities in general. Full Story
- Jeffrey Nichols of Rosland Capital, returns to the show with his latest insights on the precious metals sector - gold could top $2,000 possibly in 2016 or 2017. - A new gold bull market could lift silver and related shares to record levels. - Citizens around the globe, from China to the US and beyond have lost faith in central banking as evidenced by Brexit / Grexit talks. - More... Full Story
The biggest single rip in the European fabric that could happen has happened, forcing all of Europe to face its flaws. As I’ve said all along, Europe’s leaders, like Merkel, were blind to the stresses they were creating with their immigration policies and central planning. I have maintained that, because of their blindness, those stresses would continue to build until the volcano blew and have said this would be the year of the great rupture. Full Story
The internet, mainstream media, and Twitter are burning 24/7 with talk of Brexit. I will offer a few thoughts on Brexit at the end of the letter, but I’ll reserve any serious look at the future implications of Britain’s leaving the EU for a later letter, after I’ve had some time for reflection and analysis. I think the implications are every bit as serious as most analysts and commentators suggest, and that means the subject deserves more than reflexive punditry. Full Story
Friday's Brexit vote truly was a game-changer and the single most important financial event since 2008. That it might accelerate the death throes of the Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme is not something that is fully appreciated by the global gold "community". Hopefully, this post has helped you to understand where we are at present, the reasons behind the price action of Friday and the significance of global physical supply/demand versus paper price going forward. Full Story
If the source is corrupt, the data must be as well. The nature of counterintuitive silver price action, secondary to ongoing, and blatant price manipulation lends itself to the swirling dreams of conspiracy and encourage those who choose to ignore the trail of bodies left behind by the powers that be. Whether it’s daily volume, open interest, or warehouse data released by the CME… Or the dry, granular electronic schedules submitted by the largest traders and compiled by the CFTC for public consumption - the Weekly CoT Report. Full Story
What a last 24 hours for markets! At one point Gold was up $100/oz, SPX futures were limit down and the British Pound was down over 8%! The volatility has subsided, perhaps temporarily and Gold settled around $1320/oz with Silver settling below key resistance at $18. The miners predictably gapped up but the strength was sold. As miners remain below 2014 resistance we expect Gold to retest $1300/oz before moving higher. Full Story
In what was an extraordinary day for global financial markets, and a day which will no doubt become legendary and enter folk memory in the UK and elsewhere, the electorate of the United Kingdom voted 51.9 % to 48.1% to leave the European Union. As the first count results began trickling in during the very early hours of Friday morning London time from northern England constituencies such as Newcastle and Sunderland, the cosy optimism that had prevailed in the Remain camp became increasingly agitated as the voting majority swung to the Leave side and quickly snowballed, in what was a shock to many. Full Story
Woke up to stunning news this morning – sorry, I don’t stay up watching election results – that Britain has voted by a narrow but clear majority to leave the EU. I had feared that the British electorate would be cowed into submission by the barrage of pro-Europe propaganda and scaremongering, like the Scots were at the time of the Scottish independence referendum, but they weren’t, or at least sufficient of them weren’t to assure a positive result. Nevertheless, 48% still voted to stay in, which shows you how many gullible idiots there are out there – they are either that or in some way they are benefitting from the EU, by getting handouts etc. Full Story
Stocks may move down into an intermediate cycle low over the next 15 trading days. If they do we will again hear the perma bears calling a new bear market. They will be wrong again as they continue to be wrong over and over. The SPX has tested the 2100 level 9 times. There is no such thing as nonuple top. Heck there’s really no such thing as a triple top. When a resistance zone gets tested this many times it’s a consolidation before a breakout, not a top. Full Story
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