It’s often said that commodity shares should lead the actual commodities. While this isn’t always the case, it often is at market turning points. Months back we noted the relative weakness in Gold and Silver shares and deemed it a reason for caution. It took more than a few weeks but our caution was vindicated as Gold and Silver shares fell more than 20% in April and May. Now we are seeing the reverse which should delight gold bugs and gold bulls alike. Full Story
The first half of 2011 is over. With the summer solstice just behind us we would like to review the first half of 2011 and look at what is ahead. Last year gold gained 26%, its third double-digit gain of the last four years. So far this year has been choppy. The yellow metal has risen 19.5 per cent this year to trade at about $1,500 a troy ounce buoyed by the emergence of sovereign debt concerns in the US as well as Eurozone debt woes. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 1 July, 2011
Considering gold’s outstanding fundamentals, it’s no surprise that demand has stayed strong a decade into its bull. And with demand only expected to strengthen in the years to come, a lot of weight rests on the shoulders of gold’s suppliers. Full Story
MANY factors determine the gold price – some transient, some more sustained. By far the oldest driver of gold demand is gold's role as a monetary metal. With that in mind, let's take a look at how the yellow stuff has fared so far the year against its newer upstart rivals, the paper currencies. Full Story
Remember folks, Bill Gross [PIMCO] is reputed to run the world’s largest bond fund. Not only was Gross wrong – in investment terms he was SERIOUSLY WRONG – a great many percentage points wrong. Not only did 10 yr. bond rates not go up by 150 basis points – they have indeed FALLEN by more than 50 basis points. Full Story
Starting as early as Sep 2008, the Goldsmiths (in part XX and thereafter) predicted the ultimate future of the US as being a combination of inflation (to eventually reach the hyperinflation status) and depression at the same time. In particular, the Goldsmiths XXXXII (published Mar 4, 2009 specifically said that at that time we were then in the state of having both inflation and depression at the same time. Full Story
Imagine a doctor who administers an elaborate treatment for a man suffering from multiple broken bones, joint arthritis, and fallen foot arches. The quack doctor orders massive amounts of liquids as though he has a horrible case of dehydration. The inept doctor also permits unlimited freedom of movement around the hospital and its grounds to the patient, as part of the blunt treatment. The man still cannot walk right or breathe normally, has trouble lifting any significant weight with the arms, and stumbles around from shaky legs. But he has plenty of fluids and freedom to roam, urinating like a race horse... Full Story
The banksters do believe that their exponentially increasing money-printing now drowns out all other considerations in markets. Similarly, they are manipulating all commodities markets (lower), because obviously if you manipulate the value of goods lower this has precisely the same effect as raising the value of their paper currencies. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 30 June, 2011
Most people with a basic grounding in economics know that increasing the supply of money leads to a fall in the purchasing power of money. However, this is as far as most people's understanding goes and explains why monetary inflation is generally not unpopular unless the cost of living happens to be rising rapidly. Monetary inflation would be far more unpopular if its other effects were widely understood. We list, herewith, some of these other effects. Full Story
The state of global affairs has never been in such disarray. Major governments are going bankrupt, inflation is running rampant in a majority of the countries that line the planet, and relationships between nations have never been so heated. Full Story
Gin up a garden-variety short squeeze in the index futures Sunday night, add a dollop of surprisingly less-than-horrific news from Europe, and before you know it the Dow Industrials are in an upthrust that could carry another 900 points, topping 13,000. That’s not the way things were supposed to play out. The story had it that the Fed would do everything in its power to force stocks sharply lower so that investors would flee into the dubious safety of Treasury paper. Full Story
In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doug Groh, senior analyst with Tocqueville Asset Management, likens the gold price to a mirror that reflects peoples' concerns about global economic and political events. And he likes what he sees in the long-term prospects for gold equities. Full Story
As the circus's most recent Lion Report makes clear, what little lion there is remains very well caged. Here outside the cage there is no lion, nor has there been any lion to speak of, and nor will there be any lion worth cracking my whip or shaking this chair at – grrrrr! – for the foreseeable future... Full Story
This report lays out an investment thesis for gold and one for silver. Various factors lead me to conclude that gold is one investment that you can park for the next ten or twenty years, confident that it will perform well. My timing and logic for both entering and finally exiting gold (and silver) as investments are laid out in the full report. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 29 June, 2011
Greece and Europe are still in crisis as the European countries scramble for a solution. The fact is that ultimately Greece has to default. The banks and other nations of the euro zone should have never allowed the situation to progress to its current stage. As we have said over and over again for 13 years, one interest rate can never fit all, because each country is at a different stage of development. The very creation of the European Union and the euro zone flies in the face of anthropological and cultural history reaching back thousands of years. That said, the leaders of the EU cannot possibly save Greece and the other five nations in serious financial trouble and save the euro and the European Union simultaneously. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 June, 2011
Plans are developing for GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference to be held at the Savoy Hotel in London from Thursday, August 4, through Saturday, August 6. The Savoy will be the center of the gold (and silver) universe then, as GATA has assembled the top people in the field, including... Full Story
You may have heard that the Federal Reserve System is the lender of last resort. This is a misleading concept. The Federal Reserve loans the U.S. government newly created fiat money. The government issues the FED an IOU. It is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. But who stands behind the United States government, wallets in hand? You do. And so do I. Full Story
The "risk on" trade seems to have returned. It may last 2 weeks or it may last 8, potentially even a few more. It may even be good for a new high in "advanced" Western markets like the United States. Everyone knows Greece is going to blow up, along with lots of other countries. That doesn't mean the market is going to crash tomorrow, since this information is already well known and was likely partly behind the massive spike in the equity put-to-call ratios seen a few weeks back. Full Story
The number, market cap and currencies of the constituents of the HUI, XAU, GDX, XGD and CDNX indices differ considerably from each other and, as such, each index presents a different picture of what is really happening in the precious metals marketplace. This article analyzes the make-up of each index to reveal the biases of each to arrive at the answer to the question in the title. Full Story
The problem with trying to make market calls about a highly volatile commodity like silver is that you get it right about as many times as you get it wrong. ArabianMoney can happily point to our prediction back in December that silver might spike to $50 early in the New Year (click here). Brilliant, we got that absolutely right. But what about our warnings last summer that silver prices might fall? Ah, well they did not and if you sold then you missed the best silver rally in 30 years. Full Story
A new financial policy initiative known by the label “Financial Repression” may soon become our worst nightmare. ‘Repression’ rhymes with ‘depression’ which could be what we have to look forward to as rampant price inflation and permanently lower living standards take hold. Get ready to be conscripted into a citizen army assembled for the greater cause of saving the nation from being swamped by a tsunami of debt. Let me explain. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Rick Mills - 28 June, 2011
Uranium and potash prices seem to be inversely correlated lately: As potash prices reach their highest levels, uranium prices have suffered. But Richard (Rick) Mills, host of Ahead of the Herd online and editor of the Ahead of the Herd newsletter, believes the prospects for both industries are bright. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Rick explains why the U.S.' commitment to nuclear power and even biofuels is helping to propel both markets. Full Story
It's all great of course, that silver has finally broken out of the decades long resistance level in the $22-25 area and the race is on towards bigger and better numbers. As of this writing silver is still trading around $36/oz, which is about $20 over the price it was at when we penned the prequel to this piece. That's a lot of dough that should be landing on the bottom line of silver producers' balance sheets. So we thought an update was in order to provide a context to all the moaning out there that silver has "crashed" from $50 to mid $30ies presently. Full Story
Demanding investors appreciate when the gold price is low, while the majority of the investors are depressed as gold production is declining in general indifference. In 2010, with an increasing gold price, increasing gold production, and an increasing interest of investors for gold; our demanding investors are concerned. Will the world be overwhelmed by gold as its production is increasing? Full Story
Over the past year I’ve switched the bulk of my core energy holdings from oil to natural gas. Few people in the gold community have been as adamant as I have that natural gas will ultimately outperform oil. I’ve argued that the natural gas bears will be destroyed by rising price. The banksters have spent years accumulating a massive long position in natural gas, with the leveraged funds on the other (short) side of this trade. Full Story
Gold is stubbornly holding on to $1500/oz, despite the easing of fears of European debt contagion, lower inflation in China, the surprise release of SPR oil, reports of the imminent deal on US debt crisis and the statements that the US economy is on the mend. Full Story
The suggestion that there is anything remotely approaching a recovery in the United States, or the world economy, is pure cow pie, as evidenced by the requirement for more borrowing, more easing, and more deterioration in employment and housing. But as the title suggests, its not just America. I’m referring to the heads of state around the world. Full Story
Comex Silver ended the day near the edge of an abyss, threatening to plunge, eventually, to as low as $25 if even mild selling continues for the next few days. Specifically, our downside target for the July contract would be $25.13 if the futures were to settle for two consecutive days beneath the key low at $32.30 recorded on May 12. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 27 June, 2011
Over the last year, perhaps the greatest concern of the developed world markets has been the Eurozone debt crisis and its effect on the euro. It has brought into sharp focus the seriousness of a nation’s debt situation. In the last decade, we have blithely accepted that a nation can issue debt and be safe from default. Over this last year, that perception has changed considerably, as nations have been seen to have excessive debt. Nations are not unlike individuals, in that if you have too much debt and not enough cash flow, you will go into liquidation. Likewise, a nation can go bust! Two years ago, the euro was seen as counter to the dollar. Full Story
Thorium is one of the five abundant, long-lived, naturally-occurring radioactive elements in the Earth’s crust. The others are potassium, radon, radium, and uranium. There are several other naturally-occurring radioactive elements but they are rare and/or have short half-lifes. Full Story
By: David Coffin & Eric Coffin, HRA Advisories - 27 June, 2011
The many “typical” issues with downside potential that markets have been dealing are still some ways away from sufficient resolution to calm markets. One that has slipped off the economic pages, but is still causing much chatter on the political front, is the ongoing movement in the Arab world for changes of government. Though not as up front with the market crowd as when it began, it is still having its impact on markets. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Rick Mills - 27 June, 2011
Some pundits are yelling for investors to take profits in junior resource stocks now. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Richard (Rick) Mills, host of Ahead of the Herd online and editor of Ahead of the Herd newsletter, explains why $1,500 gold means investors should be cashing in, not cashing out. Full Story
There are two major considerations for the nation’s economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We’ll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary. Full Story
First a little background information. I'm going to be discussing almost exclusively the intermediate degree cycle. Now to start let me correct some misconceptions. Cycles are virtually worthless for timing tops. Cycles are measured from trough to trough. All we can really do with cycle theory is develop timing bands for bottoms, tops can occur at any time. Full Story
I must confess I am a gold bug both philosophically and in terms of investing. We are entering a golden age for Gold as the bull market is destined to reach amazing heights and real and honest money reemerges as legal tender against fiat currencies that will soon be at the mercy of a sovereign debt crisis. All this being said, I take issue with some headlines listed here in friend Gary’s blog and some gold bug talking points. I’m listing some of these headlines and talking points and here then my response. Full Story
You don’t need to be a chartist to see that the stocks will need to test the key low made in mid-March before anything serious happens. For the Dow Industrials, that would imply a fall of 378 points from these levels to 11556, or about three percent. What then? Although a bounce seems likely, we wouldn’t expect it to last for more than a few days, if that long. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. 2nd Hour: Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Super Boom Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 26 June, 2011
The Indian Gold market has reaffirmed its dominance in 2010 and will continue in 2011. Expect China to overtake the sub-continent in demand for gold. The love of gold in India goes far beyond a simple source of future profits. It is an expression of wealth, financial security and family stability. It also carries religious overtones. Full Story
As Stockcharts no longer see fit to run usable charts for gold and various other commodities - line charts are only suitable for schoolkids or journalists doing projects on the markets, not for serious analysis - we are going to use the chart for SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) as a stand in for gold. It is a very accurate proxy, and should continue to be, unless of course, the markets were suddenly to discover that they don't have the gold in their vaults that they say they have. Full Story
Ben Bernanke gave his second-ever press conference on June 22. Before I offer my assessment, I think it is wise to make you aware of a long-forgotten film: a 1931 movie short by Robert Benchley, one of the supreme humorists of his era. Benchley came on-screen as an economist. He provided information on why the economy was about to turn around. (It wasn't.) The depression was over. (It wasn't.) The recovery was just around the corner. (It wasn't.) Then he offered the appropriate evidence. The people in the theaters fully understood. Once you see this video, so will you. Professor Bernanke will never seem quite the same. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 26 June, 2011
I am back from Europe. The last three weeks I spent quite a bit of time talking with money managers and investors from a lot of countries, as well as numerous locals about the European situation. This week’s letter is a collection of my thoughts, as I recover from jet lag. I expect the letter will thus be shorter than usual, but hopefully a few pithy comments will emerge. But first… Full Story
Two of the investment leaders of the current precious metals boom sharply disagree over the direction that gold and silver prices will take over the next three months. Dr Marc Faber says they will go down. Gold superbug Jim Sinclair says they will go up. Somebody is going to be proven wrong. Full Story
It was another wild week with no real direction in markets and precious metals are breaking down. The S&P 500 index is trying to move higher here as it moved nicely off support at its 200 day moving average but the trading that day was a wild and volatile and in my opinion a bit suspect as to who the buyers were. It had the look and feel of the presidents working group, or the plunge protection team as it’s known. Full Story
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