About 30 years ago, my wife arranged for our then ten-year old son to attend a sleep-away YMCA summer camp in Tallulah Falls, in the Georgia Mountains. While Ross wound up going back to the same camp for several years, eventually serving as a counselor, I knew the first year would involve more than a little concern for his mother (and me) for how he was doing. Since the only communication would be by postal mail (no cellphones or texting back then) and I knew my son was not likely to write without some prodding, I sent him off with a number of pre-printed letters, in which all he had to do was fill in the blanks.
I can’t say my mail assistance appeared constructive upon receiving Ross’ first letter, as he indicated that he made no new friends, the weather was rotten, as was the food and his camp counselor wasn’t nice – all in addition to him having no fun. Fortunately, subsequent letters were progressively better and, as I indicated, the camp turned out to be a great experience for years to come. I also recollect how he told us later about a kid who cried every night going to sleep because he missed his parents. Asked on the last night why he was crying since he was going home the next day, the kid responded because he was going to miss the camp. Full Story
The email events, along with all of Musk’s circus acts, begs one simple question: Is Musk trying to produce and sell automobiles or is he simply attempting to pump the stock price of a failed business model? Full Story
So, as the market sets up for the decline we foresee in the coming weeks, the structure of the expected drop in price in the market will tell us when we should turn more bullish. And, yes, that remains my bigger expectation. Even though I expect to see red in the next few weeks, that does not make me a bear. Rather, I see this as simply another regression in the stock market which will likely set up the final rally into the 2022/23 time frame before we complete the bull market begun in 2009.
So, before you continue to read any more of my analysis in the future, or before you even comment, ask yourself: Am I reading to gain a clearer understanding of the market, or am I reading for confirmation bias? I only offer the former, and have no interest in the latter. Full Story
Liechtenstein-based investment fund Incrementum's annual "In Gold We Trust" report, compiled by Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek, was published this week and again described the reasons for gold's glorious prospects. Among them:
-- Loss of trust in international relations and everyday society amid ever-more-polarized politics.
-- Gold's generally good performance in most currencies apart from the U.S. dollar.
-- The extreme lows at which commodity prices generally now reside, implying a reversal.
-- Increasing purchases by central banks. Full Story
Higher Inflation Has Historically Meant Higher Gold Prices
The good news in all this is that higher inflation has historically been supportive of the price of gold. In the years when inflation was 3 percent or higher, annual gold returns were 15 percent on average, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
When gold hit its all-time high of $1,900 an ounce in August 2011, consumer prices were up nearly 4 percent from the same time the previous year. The two-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, averaged only 0.21 percent, meaning the T-note was delivering a negative real yield and investors were paying the U.S. government to hang on to their money. This created a favorable climate for gold, as investors sought a safe haven asset that would at least beat inflation. Go gold! Full Story
Let’s start by reviewing the fundamental choice presented by a free market in money and credit, i.e. a gold standard. Prices are measured in terms of gold. Debt is denominated in terms of gold. We emphasize these two facts because the following conclusion may not be obvious in today’s casino markets. In the gold standard, the gold coin is the risk-free asset. Obviously, gold has no default risk. And in the gold standard, perhaps less obviously, it has no price risk either.
The bond must compete against the coin. It must offer a return to compensate the bondholder for not only the risk of default but also the loss of liquidity. A 10-year bond ties up money for 10 years. If you need your money in the meantime, you would not be entitled to redeem the bond. Redemption is a contractual obligation by the issuer to pay when due—on pain of bankruptcy, foreclosure, and liquidation. Full Story
By: Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates - 29 May, 2019
- They are also beginning to talk about the inflationary implications of the tariffs. What happens if inflation picks up and Trump successfully pressures the Fed into leaving rates alone?
- That could cause much greater concern about inflation amongst economists and money managers would likely turn to gold to protect their portfolios.
- The second of half of 2019 is likely to see gold get significant investor interest… particularly if the stock market continues to weaken while inflationary pressures rise.
- Both my short-term and medium-term stock market trade signals have moved to a “sell”. The long-term buy signal is still holding but it looks shaky. Full Story
With government bond yields around the world near multi-year lows, U.S. stocks are in a dither. Should they take a bold leap to new all-time highs, defying mounting expectations of a global economic slowdown? Or should they instead fall to a more sustainable, cruising altitude? My own technical outlooks suggests they could do both: first with a rally of about 9% that fulfills a 3095 target in the S&P 500; then, with a dramatic fall of 20% or more into bear market territory. The Masters of the Universe Universe who manipulate and control the markets will be hard-pressed to decide in the weeks ahead. But it seems increasingly unlikely that they will be able to hold shares aloft for much longer as economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Full Story
By: Adam Taggart, David Stockman and Chris Martenson - 28 May, 2019
Perhaps nobody understands the current dynamics in play better than David Stockman, former head of the Office for Management and Budget under President Reagan, former US Congressman, and former private equity investor.
Stockman not only knows how the power players run the game, he knows many of them personally and understands their motivations, capabilities and weaknesses.
And he’s extremely concerned right now... Full Story
DaBoyz showed a deft touch as the week drew to a close, guiding the broad averages to a respectable close even thought there were no buyers around. Stocks often soar ahead of summer holidays, but this Memorial Day weekend they seemed challenged merely to stay in positive territory. Although there were no aggressive bids in evidence, especially for tech stocks, neither were there any urgent sellers. The result was a moderate rally that saw the Dow Industrials rise 108 points and the S&Ps tack on a negligible 6 points. Seasonality clearly failed the bulls, and that could have bearish consequences when stocks begin to trade again Monday evening. Traders could always develop amnesia over the three-day holiday, forgetting about the things that have been weighing on stocks these past few weeks. Full Story
By: Chris Waltzek Ph.D., GoldSeek Radio - 27 May, 2019
- The Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev quantified the technological advancement of civilizations based on energy. - Three categories, Type 0, I, II, and III comprise the scale. - According to physicist and futurist Michio Kaku earth is predicted to reach - Type I status in 100–200 years. - The host predicts Type II status in 1,000+ years, and Type III status in 100,000 1 M. years (Waltzek, 2019). - A Type II civilization, a stellar civilization encompasses the total energy of the star or a Dyson sphere. - Dyson spheres transfer the bulk of the energy output to the Type II civilization... Full Story
…when the stock market’s decade-long bottom trend becomes its new top trend and then it can’t even make it back up to that line as a top trend.
We’re sloughing away now, and it can be a long slide to the bottom or endless side-winding of big ups and downs that go nowhere, just as the market has now gone nowhere for fifteen months.. Full Story
As the markets sold off on Thursday, gold, and silver were few of the only assets that remained in the green for the entire day. Thus, the notion that the precious metals will crash with the markets continues to be proven wrong. And what an ugly day it was as the Dow Jones fell 450 points at its low, while the Dollar, oil, and shale stocks were clobbered. …
Americans need to prepare themselves for one hell of an economic and market downturn. While the Fed and central banks can prop up asset prices, they can’t prop up a physical economy that is primed for a recession-depression. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - 27 May, 2019
- Missing Inflation - Debt Rubicon - Velocity Falling - The Complex Debt and Currency Dance - “Too High and Getting Wider” - They Shall Not Grow Old Full Story
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