By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 31 March, 2017
Gold suffered heavy selling in early March leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike. Speculators frantically dumped gold futures ahead of the Fed’s meeting as implied rate-hike odds soared. This is nothing new. This key group of traders has long feared Fed-rate-hike cycles, convinced they are the mortal nemesis of zero-yielding gold. But this view is highly irrational, as history proves gold actually thrives in rate-hike cycles! Full Story
This is the week that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was triggered, and the two years of negotiation between the UK and the EU commenced. Following this period, the UK formally leaves the EU. It is the first time a member state is leaving the EU, so the procedures are untested and the outcome uncertain. But it is not the first Brexit, as historian David Starkey has pointed out. Henry VIII gave similar notice to Rome and through several Acts of Parliament between 1532-34, removed papal powers and tithes, and achieved his Brexit. The chief Remainers, his Chancellor Sir Thomas Moore and Cardinal John Fisher, were executed in 1535. Full Story
One might even argue that the most recent President, despite all the maligning, did quite well beating the odds in the usually weak post-election year and mid-term year but underperforming during the latter two years the pre-election year and the election year. His first two years saw the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) gain 36.5% (2009-2010) and 36.0% (2013-2014). His latter two years produced gains of 13.1% (2011-2012) and 11.2% (2015-2016) respectively. Full Story
Propaganda, also known as “fake news,” has become the norm in mainstream media reporting. Somehow the idea of Russia hacking the DNC computers morphed into the generic, “Russia hacked the election.” Per Hitler’s formula, Hillary Clinton introduced the idea during one of the presidential debates and kept repeating it until the press seized it and ran all the way with to the end zone with “Trump is a Russian ally.” Now Congress is pre-occupied with the fraudulent charge that Russia is controlling U.S. politics. The whole spectacle is beyond idiotic. Full Story
According to The Silver Investor David Morgan, the nascent silver bull market is alive and well. The guest / host agree that the PMs sector found a firm bottom in 2015 making the buy and hold method ideal for most investors. For more intrepid investors, David Morgan's proprietary gold / silver ratio analysis strongly suggests higher prices to come. Full Story
A lot of precious metals analyst that I follow are busy with supply and demand fundamentals, technicals and creating charts with graphs and lines. Michael Noonan is not this type of analyst. Michael watches the “market” movement and makes his plans for extracting wealth according to what has happened over the past week and how it is impacting the charts today. Michael has successfully traded the precious metals “markets” for well over a decade and he, along with his small band of followers pounce at the appropriate time to make offload the booty. Full Story
Thus far in 2017, the financial media has been running the narrative that stocks are THE asset class to own. But the reality has been very different. With the exception of two weeks in March, Gold has outperformed stocks for the entire year to date. Full Story
Writing a missive such as this one has been a labor of love for me since the mid-1980s when I began to observe how stock market investors behaved at or near major inflection points—meaning "tops" and "bottoms." It all began in London, Ontario, in the summer of 1982 when I was in attendance at the annual London Chamber of Commerce Annual Canada Day barbecue where business types of all persuasions came together to "try to hustle up some new business," a 1980's version of the 2017 term "networking." Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Economic Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital - 30 March, 2017
Last week the American political establishment was shaken to its foundation when the Republican Party leadership withdrew the American Health Care Act (AHCA) just before the vote was to be taken on the floor of the House of Representatives. Besides being a most unusual procedure, it exposed a fundamental split in the country,reflected not merely in Congress but within the Republican Party. GOP purists, represented by the House Freedom Caucus, demanded more significant roll backs in socialized medicine that were contained in the Ryan plan. Their refusal to back the plan, after years of promising complete repeal, doomed the bill. Full Story
Last week, all the market talk was about what the market was going to do if the healthcare bill failed or passed. And, once again, the market was certain about the outcome. The great belief was that if the healthcare bill passed, the market would rally. If the healthcare bill failed, the market would drop. And, if the healthcare bill was pulled, the market will also drop. Full Story
There is little doubt that gold is now in a bull market. However, gold is stuck within a complex sideways triangular consolidation pattern which may continue for the rest of 2017. Full Story
Chris welcomes back a modern Jesse Livermore, Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics, the subject of the documentary film, The Forecaster (2015). Although central banks around the globe have lowered interest rates, taxation rates continue to climb. Officials in the US and the EU have called on Martin Armstrong during periods of economic chaos over the past 30 years. Our guest suggests they consult with actual traders who understand the market mechanics, not just economic theory. Full Story
The international gold price usually refers to the price of gold quoted in US Dollars per troy ounce as traded on the 24-hour global wholesale gold market (XAU/USD). Gold is traded non-stop globally during the entire business week, creating a continuum of international gold price quotes from Sunday evening New York time all the way through to Friday evening New York time. Depending on the context, this international gold price sometimes refers to a spot gold market quote, such as spot gold traded in London, and at other times may refer to the front month of a gold futures contract price as traded on the US Commodity Exchange (COMEX). Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 30 March, 2017
Since a few years ago JPMorganChase CEO Jamie Dimon said the bank had no position of its own in silver and was just trading on behalf of clients, its seeming violation of position limits supports suspicion that the bank's clients in silver (as well as gold) are governments, particularly the governments of the United States and China. Full Story
Gold’s performance this week has been underwhelming, to put it mildly, so today’s chart, although bullish, sets a low bar. The April contract tripped a mechanical ‘buy’ signal today, but the initial risk of nearly $500 per contract makes it an unappealing bet, especially considering the tepid price action that had preceded the signal. Instead, I’ll suggest we look to do our buying after the futures have popped above the 1256.20 midpoint resistance. That would exceed the labeled peak at 1255.90 as well, generating an encouraging impulse leg on the lesser charts. Full Story
Several “black swans” are looming which could inflict a financial nuclear accident on the U.S. markets and financial system. I say “black swans” in quotes because a limited audience is aware of these issues – potentially catastrophic problems that are curiously ignored by the mainstream financial media and financial markets. Full Story
Given my past experience in dealing with the CFTC, in no way do I expect any aggressive action from this neutered and fully-controlled agency. Instead, I just thought it would be fun to see if I heard anything back from them at all. Will I even get a response? I can tell you that, so far, I haven't even received one of those "thank you for writing us, we'll look into it" emails so it's not looking good. However, if I do eventually hear from them, I'll be sure to write follow-up to this post. Full Story
Snowballs have a short life expectancy in Death Valley. Fiat currencies, backed by credit and debt, survive longer than snowballs in Death Valley, but history shows all fiat currencies are inflated into worthlessness and eventually die. “U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply.” Ben Bernanke on November 21, 2002. But we know the supply of dollars has grown rapidly since 1971, and especially after the 2008 crisis while Bernanke was Chairman of the Fed. Full Story
There is no question that the meandering of the metals complex in 2017 has tested many investor’s patience. But, a market does not scream out to the entire complex that it is about to embark upon a parabolic run. So, it will likely continue to test our patience until wave 3 of iii takes hold later this year. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 29 March, 2017
In a broadcast from Singapore yesterday, CNBC's news channel affiliate in India, CNBC-TV18, gave your secretary/treasurer six minutes to assert that for the time being the gold price will be determined largely by surreptitious trading by central banks and that India's government should stop fighting the desire of its people for golden money. Your secretary/treasurer argued that while India is a developing country, with an estimated 24,000 tonnes of the monetary metal in private and temple possession, it might become the richest country if gold was allowed to trade without central bank interference. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 29 March, 2017
The point is that when gold is not money (the general medium of exchange) it tends NOT to maintain its purchasing power over what most people would consider to be a normal investment timeframe. Instead, gold’s purchasing power tends to experience massive swings. By being knowledgeable and unemotional you can take advantage of these swings. What you can’t reasonably expect to do is conserve your purchasing power by mindlessly buying gold at any price. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 29 March, 2017
The U.S. Retirement Market is in BIG TROUBLE as annual benefits paid out are now larger than total contributions. Actually, the amount of net withdrawals were the highest in history. When payouts become larger than contributions… then we have the making of the typical PONZI SCHEME. Americans who have invested their hard-earned money into a 401K, had no idea that it was the Greatest Ponzi Scheme in history. Unfortunately, when the markets crack, so will the value of the U.S. Retirement market. On the other hand, Americans who were wise enough to purchase physical precious metals will protect their wealth as the U.S. Paper Retirement Market collapses. Full Story
The election of President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly praised Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin, as well as crude oil production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), may have helped Russian stocks shrug off recent declines in the price of Brent oil. With the country coming out of recession, BCA Research just overweighted Russian equities, the ruble and credit relative to other emerging European states. Full Story
Tuesday’s ballistic surge reamed bears a new orifice. It also left no room for doubt about which direction the futures will be headed for the remainder of the week. Accordingly, I will now ask you to consider a rally pattern that implies new all-time highs are coming, probably within the next 7-10 days. If the 2439.00 target is reached, that would equate to a Dow rally of about 800 points. There’s always a chance the 2378.38 midpoint pivot (see inset) will stop the rampaging herd in its tracks. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Full Story
The stock market daily cycle low is in. We now begin the 3rd daily cycle within the larger intermediate cycle. Expect stock markets to now go on to make new highs. Full Story
I have been promising a review of Nicholas Eberstadt’s very important book, Men Without Work: America’s Invisible Crisis. The book is relatively short at 216 pages, but it is packed with meaty facts and insights. One of the reasons I seldom read an actual physical book anymore is because I can highlight text and make notes in my Kindle app on my iPad and then find those notes and highlighted sections on my Amazon page for later review. I actually highlighted 36 pages with 22,000 words from this book to go back and review. Full Story
In yesterday’s alert we emphasized that the breakdown in the USD Index should not be trusted as it was not confirmed and there were several good reasons to think that it would not be confirmed. The breakdown is already invalidated and – again, as discussed yesterday – this is actually a strong bullish sign. Is the decline in the USD Index over and is the big slide in the precious metals sector just around the corner? Full Story
The problem is that most market participants and analysts view the stock market from a purely mechanical standpoint. The common belief is that if a certain event happens, then there must be a specific stock market reaction to that event. And, as we all know, this firm belief in "exogenous causation" (as termed by Robert Prechter in his latest work "The Socionomic Theory of Finance") is strongly held by almost all market participants. Full Story
That’s what’s going on in the equity complex right now in relation to traders getting out of the way of what is now 100% consensus the Fed will be raising administered rates this Wednesday. This selling has hit everything from stocks, to crude, to precious metals, where it’s been particularly bad in the commodities naturally. Why naturally? Answer: Because the bureaucrats and bankers want it that way, and they control the paper markets, toppling over idiot speculators on a regular basis in these markets with news / propaganda and algo driven exchanges predisposed to supporting stocks / bonds and selling commodities / precious metals. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 28 March, 2017
It’s important to state up front that despite the associated pitfalls, it can definitely be helpful to track the public’s sentiment and use it as a contrary indicator. This is because most participants in the financial markets get swept up by the general mood. They end up buying into the idea that prices are bound to go much higher despite valuations having already become unusually high or the idea that prices will continue to slide despite current valuations being unusually low. This causes them to be very optimistic near important price tops and either very pessimistic or totally disinterested near important price bottoms. Full Story
Throwing a monkey wrench into the Trump rally was fresh uncertainty House Republicans could successfully repeal and replace Obamacare, one of their headline campaign promises for seven years now. Failure to do so, it’s believed, could seriously push back tax reform. And the promise of tax reform—along with deregulation and infrastructure spending—is arguably what’s driven the Trump rally. Full Story
Although interest rates on the 10-Year Note have receded sharply over the last two weeks, from 2.62% to 2.35%, the chart makes clear that the pullback is merely corrective. That is not to say yields could not continue to fall significantly lower in the weeks ahead, perhaps by enough to bring mortgage rates down from the danger zone. I won’t make any immediate predictions because it will take at least four to six weeks before we can know with any confidence whether the upward skew in yields across the curve since last July, along with the reflation trade, is about to succumb to gravity. What kind of ‘gravity’? Full Story
The USDollar has never been in greater danger for losing its dominant position as global reserve currency and payment standard. Challenges to its supremacy are many and with each passing month, more threats are put in place. While the volumes of trade payment in Chinese RMB grow slowly, and the banking reserves in non-USD bonds grow slowly, the risk for the USDollar to be marginalized has increased significantly in the last two to three years. Basically speaking, a fiat currency run by a corrupt, thieving, and dishonorable hegemonic regime for the sole purpose of exploiting the rest of the world cannot stand the test of time, and will be dismantled. Full Story
The official entities in the western hemisphere who operate to keep the price of gold artificially restrained, using paper gold based on the fact that most western buyers never care to take actual delivery, no longer make an effort to cover-up their manipulative activities. Anyone involved in trading and investing in the precious metals market who denies that the markets are rigged is likely in some way connected to or benefiting from the manipulation. Full Story
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy returns with perhaps the most dire news to date. He questions the validity of the official 4.7% employment figure, preferring instead the Shadowstats.com 23% unemployment number. Goldseek.com / Silverseek.com President and founder, Peter Spina returns to the show with his mining share analysis, from his home in the Czech Republic. Similar to the PMs sector, Prague has emerged from the former communist regime, entering a new Golden Era. Full Story
All the sound and fury Republican leaders made about repealing Obamacare signified nothing. They aren’t eager to betray the healthcare lobby, insurance providers, and pharmaceutical companies who worked with Congress to write the law and who paid so handsomely into campaign funds. They would rather betray voters. The federal government sunk its talons deep into healthcare with the Affordable Care Act, and it will never let go willfully. Perhaps it can be pried loose after the system collapses. Full Story
As we have repeatedly warned since mid-December, the “Trump trade” was based on hype. This is not to say that President Trump will not succeed in generating economic growth… it IS to say that whatever growth is coming will do so in 2018 as opposed to the GDP growth of 5% that the market seemed to believe would be hitting in early 2017. Full Story
This monthly chart wrap-up from BullionStar profiles a selection of charts from the GOLD CHARTS R US website so as to illustrate notable developments in gold demand, gold supply and physical gold movements across the world's major gold markets. Charts covered below include Swiss gold trade flows, Russian gold reserve changes, and Chinese gold demand. Full Story
Gold ETFs recorded inflows over the past two days totaling nearly 9 tons, reports Commerzbank, reversing more than half of outflows previously seen this month. Noting a drop in net long positions to their lowest level since the beginning of the year during the run-up to the Fed meeting, one analyst wrote that this means there is ample upside potential for gold. As seen in the chart below, we are seeing the longest losing run for the dollar since November, reports Bloomberg, as gold advanced to its highest level in three weeks on haven demand amid a global selloff in stocks. Full Story
Hopefully the stock market is going to be allowed to continue correcting. This will clear out bullish sentiment and allow the stock market to complete both an intermediate and yearly cycle low. Coinciding with this, the dollar is poised to continue lower and complete a failed daily cycle. Full Story
In the Wednesday Report the title read, What Type of Investor are You? My main focus was to show some intermediate to long term buy and sell signals based on the 21 month simple moving average and the MACD-Histogram. Tonight I would to take it one step further and look at the Chartology for some of the big stock market indexes which shows the intermediate to longer term perspective. There is one dominate chart pattern that has built out a consolidation pattern for the 2015 to 2016 correction. Full Story
We are wondering whether President Trump and the Republicans are feeling like the iconic B-52s song “Rock Lobster” from 1978. Only instead of being a “Rock Lobster,” it was their attempt to repeal “Obamacare” that went “down, down.” So substitute “Rock Lobster” with “Repeal of Obamacare.” Doesn’t have quite the same cachet, but the impact may be more far-reaching. Full Story
The stock market wasn't too thrilled about it, either, although there wasn't a concerted selling effort on the part of the bears. The major indices were down for the week, but the tech sector continued to show resilience with semiconductors in the leadership position. There was a suggestion in the press last week that the stock market "couldn't care less" about Obamacare, and perhaps that's true. But there's one thing that will be seriously impacted by the lack of Obamacare reform and that's the middle class economy. Full Story
Last week we wrote that precious metals should see upside follow through but to be wary of the 200-day moving averages and February highs before becoming excited. The metals did follow through as Gold gained 1.5% and Silver gained 1.9% (for the week) but the miners disappointed. GDX gained only 1.1% while GDXJ finished in the red as did junior silver companies (SILJ). As spring beckons, the gold stocks are showing relative and internal weakness. Full Story
While the Japanese and Swiss central banks have turned themselves into hedge funds by loading up on equities, the US Fed has stuck to supporting the stock market indirectly, by buying bonds. It’s worked, obviously, with all major US indexes at record highs. But it won’t work going forward, thanks to two gathering trends. Full Story
Back in the old days, homes had fuse boxes. Today, of course, any new house is built with a circuit breaker panel and many older homes have been upgraded at one time or another. However, the fuse is a much more interesting analogy for the monetary system. When a fuse burned out, it was protecting you from the risk of a house fire. Each circuit is designed for only so much current. The problem is that higher current causes more heat, and it can start a fire. So they put fuses in, which burn out before the wire gets hot enough to be dangerous. Full Story
Gold took the leading role from silver and gained 1.49% this past week. Gold has a sweet little bull flag just under the 200 day moving average which tells me we should move above said moving average shortly. Next resistance to watch is $1,306 or so. Looking good to me! Full Story
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