By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence - 31 December, 2010
Commodities have been on a tear in the second half of 2010. Measured by the venerable CCI, the commodities patch has posted record highs in just this last week. In this impressive run the usual suspects have all performed well. From wheat, to oil, to copper, to gold, the gains have been stellar. But one commodity in particular has outshined the rest, silver. Full Story
With gold and silver both boiling ferociously into record territory repeatedly throughout the last half of 2010, the outlook for 2010 looks even more bullish for the monetary metals. Forget the perennially fallacious predictions of the financial mainstream. There’s nothing but higher prices for both these metals on the horizon. Full Story
Summing up, the situation for gold has moved from a slightly bearish sentiment to a bullish outlook for the near and medium term. Silver appears likely to take out previous highs and further increases are likely based on current signals. At this time, it seems best for investors to stay with current holdings and - again - perhaps open small speculative long positions. Full Story
Here again we have a paradox, for while gold and silver are becoming increasing vulnerable to a correction after their long steady uptrends, such uptrends typically end with a parabolic acceleration and blowoff phase with greatly increased public interest. This still hasn't happened which is why we suspect that a spectacular near vertical rally may be just around the corner - and we certainly don't want to sell out too early and miss that. Full Story
Investors have been liquidating bonds in the last few weeks which begs the question why. Are investors liquidating bonds in order to move cash back into stocks and other risk assets? Or is that money going under the mattress? On that score a recent news article provides a most interesting backdrop to this question. Full Story
Reliable market estimates suggest that there around two billion ounces of gold held above ground in bullion, and only one billion ounces of silver. Over time there has been far more silver mined than gold, say around 45 billion ounces, but it has almost all been consumed by industry. Much more of the five million ounces of gold mined by mankind remains. Full Story
Because of the current Rothschild Cabal imposed depression, many state and local government entities are scrambling to find new sources of revenue to support their huge taste and appetite for money. One of the prime sources of money for local government has turned out to be traffic fines and court costs for ripped off drivers who become entrapped by traffic patrolmen/state police units who are increasingly operating on quotas and vastly increased fines and costs for traffic violations. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 31 December, 2010
Adrian Ash of BullionVault.com writes that “the International Monetary Fund said it has completed the gold bullion sales program begun in October 2009,” and now 403 tonnes of gold have been sold. I bring this up all the time because the whole thing pisses me off because we gave those IMF bastards the gold to provide gold-standard legitimacy for their stupid fiat currency, the Special Drawing Right (SDR). And yet here they are selling the gold we loaned them! Gaaahhh! Full Story
By: Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital - 30 December, 2010
The Fed's lucky streak of luring bond investors with low interest rates may be drawing to a close. Nevertheless, the extended period of low borrowing costs has bred a new breed of investor. To the bulls and bears, we can now add the ostriches - those who bury their heads in the sand of declining debt service ratios while refusing to face up to intractable levels of total US government debt. If these ostriches were to actually look at the numbers, they would realize that it is their investments which are made of sand. Full Story
2010 was a tumultuous year. Around the world it seemed that quite often, chaos reigned. There were natural disasters: earthquakes rocked Haiti, Chile and China. The Haiti earthquake was the most devastating since the Sumatra, Indonesia earthquake and tsunami of 2004, with estimated deaths of over 250,000. A summer heat wave and drought in Russia caused wheat prices to soar. A volcanic eruption in Iceland, while not huge in the scale of volcanic eruptions, disrupted air travel across Europe. As the year ended, snow and ice storms across Europe, the north-eastern US and Atlantic Canada were also causing disruption. Full Story
The obscene concentration of wealth in our world must explode. I'm talking about over the counter derivative contracts. They are spreadsheet entries, computer generated dark faeries which are given value only by the US Fed's proven commitment to print money to buy them. Full Story
“More than half the lending under the Fed’s term Auction Facility…went to Foreign Banks…” But isn’t the Mission of The Fed supposed to be focused on the health of the U.S. Economy and Financial System, and not on creating foreign employment and foreign investors’ security? Full Story
MOST PEOPLE rightly think of gold bullion as an inflation hedge. But it's only now, ten years into this bull market, that this "old normal" so clearly applies. After the interlude of the banking crisis – when debt-free gold, as an alternative to unsecured savings accounts, offered an immediate haven – gold has reverted to its more historic role: a refuge from excessive government debts, and from the inflation and currency crises they threaten to spawn. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 30 December, 2010
If the past seven years is any guide, silver's price should continue at pace, if not outperform, the past seven year's average gains of 33% per year. Someday, silver could really blow up much faster than that. Frauds do collapse suddenly. The dollar is fraud. Fractional reserve banking is fraud. Fractional reserve banking in silver is fraud. Most of the financial world is fraud today. Silver is not a fraud and is the opposite of fraud. Silver is not a promise to pay, silver in your hand is evidence that you have been paid in full. Full Story
It is a commonly held belief by many precious metal investors and even a good percentage of market pundits that silver always outperforms gold during the latter stages of a precious metals rally. When the chart action goes parabolic — such as in January 1980 or May 2006 — silver is at its most profitable, or so the thinking goes. The truth, however, is that silver outperforms gold only during orderly and strong price advances that remain trend-bound. Once gold and silver prices achieve the wildfire stage, the blond metal can outshine its albino sibling both on the way up and especially on the way down (by falling less, of course). With incorrect notions in hand about gold and silver price action, both pros and amateurs can make fundamentally-mistaken allocation decisions in their precious metals portfolios that can be painful in the short and long run. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 30 December, 2010
Two stories played next to each other recently on the front page of The Wall Street Journal serve to illustrate the news media’s schizophrenic reportage on the economy. On the one hand, there was this chirpy report on employment: “Job Offers Rising as Economy Warms Up”. Never mind that some estimates put current joblessness at nearly 20% – more than twice as high as the official figure – or that the statistics behind the headline were squishier than a mermaid’s bath sponge. But there was also this story, providing a very different picture of a U.S. economy that is likely to be burdened for years by the overly generous pension benefits promised to city employees across the nation: “Pensions Push Taxes Higher”. Full Story
Since the early 1990 decade, the nation's maestros have promulgated the notion that cheap money is a beneficial factor for the sustenance of wealth, for economic development, for the standard of living, for the robust industries, in general for the American society. Nothing could be further from the truth, but even today the reckless US economists from the Keynesian Camp and their controllers from Wall Street have convinced the multitudes that cheap money is a good thing. Cheap money comes with a deadly ultimate cost. The inept professor occupying the US Federal Reserve Chairman post has gone on record claiming the US banking sector has a secret weapon in the Printing Pre$$ that it can use with zero cost, in its electronic form. Nothing could be further from the truth. Full Story
The real US unemployment rate is not 9.8% but between 25% and 30%. That is a depression level of job losses - so why doesn't it look like a depression for many people? How can so large of a statistical discrepancy exist, and how is it that holiday shopping malls are so crowded in a depression? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 29 December, 2010
Mr. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a private corporation, would have us believe that, quantitative easing is the only way to save the US economy and to reverse the unemployment problem. He conveniently forgets to tell you that he authored a paper in 1988 with Mr. Michael Baskin that concluded that what Mr. Bernanke is doing with QE does not work. He told watchers of “60 Minutes” that the jobless rate would have been far higher; something like it was in the “Great Depression” at 25%. If Mr. Bernanke had taken time to have his minions do the research, he would have found that U3 at the peak of the “Great Depression” was 25.2% and U6 was 37.6%. As we write U3 is 9.8% and U6 is 17%. If you strip out the bogus birth/death ratio, real unemployment on a U6 basis is probably close to 22-3/8%, as yet, considerably less than in the 1930s, but impressively unacceptable. Full Story
It is understandable that investors who believe in paper money and paper-denominated assets do not understand gold. Gold, after all, is the natural refuge of disbelievers in the current financial paradigm; and, as today’s credit and debt-based paper markets come under increasing pressure and gold moves increasingly higher, most “paper bulls” remain increasingly perplexed.
Right now gold is preparing to break out of a half way consolidation with a target of at least 1630. Reinforcing this, there is a longer term rally, starting in Nov 2008 with a half way consolidation between November and March 2009 (indicated by the green lines) that also points to a gold price target of 1630 this Spring. Full Story
Through the usually flat week between Christmas and New Year's celebrations, at least one (or perhaps a handful) investor is looking to borrow some gold and silver this year. Overnight, lease rates exploded by more than 500% on both gold and silver. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 29 December, 2010
There are a lot of things in this world that I do not understand, and perhaps it is because of this persistent befuddlement that, for some mysterious reason, I think it is Highly, Highly Significant (HHS) that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange is planning “a first”; an international gold contract denominated in renminbi. Full Story
In reviewing the charts from the Chart Room over the weekend I came to the conclusion that in terms of timing the markets you don’t want to think in terms of price right now, but in terms of time, where again, we are not looking for a blow-off top in the present intermediate move until sometime in the first quarter next year, with early February the favored target from both historical and cyclical perspectives. How did I come to this conclusion? Answer: As you will see in the charts below, several breakouts and trend blow-offs are in the process of tracing out, meaning more time is needed for this to occur no matter how overbought technical conditions in the market are at this time. And while it’s true that everything from stocks to commodities are intermediate degree overbought, what this means is conditions will become even more overbought, and as a result, it’s possible hyperinflationary conditions in the US could at a minimum be tested. Full Story
Golden Crystal. Whether you buy breakouts (difficult) or price weakness (best), it is important to keep your charts simple and clear. Here’s the Gold Bullion Chart at around 3am this morning. Notice the focus on the “here and now”, which is the $1370 to $1390 price range. The actual range is more like 1372 to 1392, but it is important to always focus on your failure to analyse, rather than your ability to analyse. Full Story
Normally we write about the things and conditions that cause precious metals to rise. While these things may be obvious, the corresponding rise in the bull market will not always be consistent and linear. Small and large corrections will occur along the way. Some will be purely technical while some have real drivers. There are three things that can precede a deep correction or consolidation in the precious metals complex. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 28 December, 2010
A Chicago law firm yesterday announced another class-action lawsuit against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings PLC complaining of silver market manipulation. Interestingly, the lawsuit cites GATA's silver market manipulation whistleblower Andrew Maguire and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Bart Chilton, and specifies mechanisms by which Morgan and HSBC could manipulate the silver market through the use of silver exchange-traded funds. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 28 December, 2010
Despite what Bernanke claims, the US money supply continues to grow at a rapid rate. As evidence we present the following chart, which shows that TMS's year-over-year growth rate is above 10% and has been in double digits for almost two years. By the way, we don't think that Bernanke is lying when he says that the US money supply hasn't grown by much over the past 1-2 years. The problem, we suspect, is that he doesn't know how to measure the money supply, which is possibly worse for the US economy than if he understood what was going on but was deliberately hiding the truth. If he knew there was a monetary inflation problem, but was lying about it, there would be a chance of corrective measures being implemented sooner rather than later. Instead, he feels comfortable promoting more monetary inflation because he truly believes that the current inflation rate is low. Full Story
Oprah’s line not only took me back to 1976 and Rocky, but also brought fond memories of contestants on the The Price Is Right hyperventilating after winning a set of saucepans or a telescope. Once the excitement had abated, 78% were probably on their way to getting a passport for the first time, and I dare not speculate as to how many knew “where the bloody hell are we”. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Porter Stansberry - 28 December, 2010
Steady tailwinds benefited the stock market for most of 2010, but Stansberry & Associates Investment Research Founder Porter Stansberry is bracing himself and his clients for a bumpy ride for equities in the new year, as well as unprecedented instability in muni bonds and Treasuries. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Porter, who's been predicting the dire consequences of unbridled borrowing and continued quantitative easing for some time, recommends utmost caution and conservatism for investors in 2011. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 28 December, 2010
There are increasingly those who predict hyperinflation, which is popularly defined as rapidly-rising prices that soon reach un-payable levels, and which is always caused by the true definition of inflation, which is (according to the Mogambo Big Book Of Economic Stuff (MBBOES), “A gigantic growth in the money supply, which is caused by banks deliberately acting like greedy, lying, filthy pigs who deserve to be thrown in jail.” Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 27 December, 2010
GATA's lawsuit against the Federal Reserve in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia slogs on amid the Fed's desperate obstructionism. Last week, through its lawyers, William J. Olson and Jon S. Miles of the Vienna, Virginia, firm of William J. Olson P.C. (http://www.lawandfreedom.com/), GATA filed a long brief replying to the Fed's objection to a couple of GATA's requests. We have asked the court to review privately the gold-related documents the Fed doesn't want to disclose and to permit GATA to pose a limited number of questions to the Fed. Full Story
The establishment argument against gold comes down to the statement that it is a collectable that earns no yield. Art, rare coins, stamps and gold and silver bullion do not earn a yield. Stocks, bonds and real estate earn yields, so the prudent investor should focus on these assets rather than gold or precious metals. First, let us examine a hole in this argument. Let us look at bonds and other fixed income investments. The best instrument here is T-bills because they are virtually risk-free (not counting the risk from the depreciation of the currency). A study of the yield on T-bills going back to 1933 (which is the beginning of the modern monetary system) shows that the yield paid on T-bills bought at almost any time over the past 75 years has been completely eaten up by the depreciation of the currency. Full Story
The investment world has become obsessed with phenomena that cause catastrophic loss – so much so that a new language has evolved, subjugating old words to new meanings. Melt-downs, for example. Collapse. Bubbles. Bubble, in fact, is now the word that classifies any asset class believed to be overpriced as a result of investment hysteria. Right now, we have the gold bubble, the silver bubble, more generally, the commodities bubble. The real estate bubble, now burst, precipitated the world financial crisis of 2008, which, according to most financial press, is now over. Strange, that, since unemployment remains rampant, home prices are still at rock bottom, and earnings for any corporation who didn’t get stimulus cash to superficially improve their balance sheet optics, are non-existent. Full Story
History has been peppered with financial bubbles and we’ll get to that, but first, is gold in a bubble? So far it's been the amazing, runaway investment of the past decade. If you'd put your money into gold at the lows about 10 years ago, you'd have made approximately 400% return. That's left pretty much everything else—stocks, China, housing—in the dust, and we don’t mean gold dust. We would be willing to bet that if you asked for a show of hands of how many people own gold in an audience of 100 seasoned investors, probably less than 10 might raise their hands. If you asked the same question in a room of average, random people probably one or two hands at the most might go up. Gold is clearly not in the bubble stage yet. Full Story
The perennial star of the Agora Financial Forum held each year in Vancouver, veteran stock broker Rick Rule came out strongly in defense of silver as a top pick for 2011 in an interview on King World News. Asked whether silver shortages would continue he said: ‘I suspect it’s true. One of the things that happens at least in the near-term, shortages and the price rises that they cause ironically exacerbate shortages. Meaning that more people are attracted to speculations in silver as the price goes up. The price of course has gone up because of that attraction. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 27 December, 2010
If you are like me, then you don’t quite understand what the hell is going on with this economic stuff, but you are pretty sure that it starts with the foul Federal Reserve creating so much excess money and that a lot of people ought to be in prison Right Freaking Now (RFN). Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 27 December, 2010
Interviewed by Fox’s Chris Wallace on Sunday, Senator Tom Coburn (R-Oklahoma) made quite a splash in the news, warning that America could suffer “Apocalyptic pain” within the next few years if it doesn’t get debt under control. Coburn’s heart seems to be in the right place, since he is one of the most vocal members of Congress in railing against bailouts that have pushed public debt into the cosmos. But we wonder whether he isn’t a few steps behind the real world in worrying that our standard of living will plunge if America’s budget deficit is allowed grow. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 26 December, 2010
We have heard many commentators implying that a U.S. economic recovery that leads to the sort of growth that was seen before 2008 will give investors reasons to divest from gold. As the year end approaches and another year is on us, it seems wise to us to look at this carefully. All of us would dearly love to see a real recovery, with rising housing prices moving back to levels seen in 2008, strong employment data and consumers with plenty of disposable income to make life stress free again. In such a climate, one can understand that these desires would be accompanied by a fall in the gold price, which to many is a thermometer measuring the ailments of the developed world economies. But is that the reason that gold is at current levels? Full Story
You can consider this Gold Market update to be gift wrapped. As I am unable to get presents to each and every reader this year for logistical reasons, these Gold and Silver Market updates are going to have to suffice, which is perfectly reasonable given how bullish they are. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 26 December, 2010
Trading is awesome! Everyone should trade stocks. The benefits that trading brings to anyone who sticks with it are vast. They spill over into and enrich all aspects of our lives, in a myriad of ways extending far beyond the obvious financial rewards. And it’s never too late or too early to start learning this fascinating and empowering art. Full Story
It's almost impossible to find anyone who is long term bearish on the stock market or economy at this time. In the recent Barron’s poll every single analyst expected a rise in stock prices next year and continued economic expansion. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 26 December, 2010
I am neither a market timer nor the son of a market timer. I left my office in the Texas Rangers ballpark this year, and they went to the World Series. I bought Dallas Cowboys season tickets for the first time in 50 years, as they went down in flames. But I do know a few very good timers, and they are sending out warnings. Today, we look at a few of these, as it might pay to hedge some of your equity portfolio as we go into the New Year. Full Story
By: Michael "Woody" O'Brien ChFC - 26 December, 2010
People who own silver know the reasons why it keeps going up, but they are not usually very chatty about telling others. For the bull market in precious metals to power forward to the next level, it's in the enlightened self interest of every bullion investor to start offering to pay others in metals. Full Story
Search back in the archives of ArabianMoney and you will find gold as our tip for 2010 (click here). Not bad, the yellow metal gained more than 26 per cent but it played second fiddle to silver as the best bet of the year up more than 70 per cent. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 26 December, 2010
I assume that you, as an intelligent person who understands that the treacherous, greedy, vampire banks creating so much excess money means We’re Freaking Doomed (WFD), are Up To Your Freaking Ears (UTYFE) in gold, silver and oil, and you have had it UTYFE with your family always complaining about how you spend all the family’s income on gold, silver and oil instead of luxuries, family vacations, adequate food, clothing, medical care, dental care, blah blah blah, the list goes on and on. Full Story
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