A dispassionate look at the quantities and flows of fiat dollars tells us much about the current state of the US economy, and therefore prospects for the dollar itself. Full Story
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness. The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally. But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them. The juniors recently reported Q3 earnings, and enjoyed strong results. Full Story
When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower. Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system. Full Story
Those who have only recently gotten on the cryptocurrency bandwagon, buying into the recent parabolic rise of Bitcoin, have to be vomiting in disgust as they watch their hard-earned money being beaten like a dirty rug, but this is it - this is what it looks like to be involved in the cryptocurrency space, and something that veterans of the markets have seen time and time again. It is not all peaches and cream. Full Story
Here are a few global ETFs with little room to drop in order to avoid daily chart technical breakdowns. That does not mean the end of the larger up trends, but could signal oncoming intermediate corrections if they do fall further and close the week that way (pre-market is red). The question would be, are they leading the fiscally drunk US market and its chronic tweeter in chief/stock pumper? Full Story
The question in the title is one of the most frequent comments I have been getting of late. And, the answer is quite simple: They are not doing anything right now. In fact, if you look at the charts, we have been in the same general region for several months. Full Story
The 3 Amigos of macro change will ride until they hit the wall known as the limitations of a cooked up macro market backdrop. If – and it’s of course still a question – stocks retrace vs. gold, yields rise and the yield curve flattens toward logical limit points, and these limits come about in confluence, it could be the biggest market signal (of drastic changes) many of us have received in our lifetimes. And I don’t see that as hyperbole. Full Story
A recurring pattern of the past few decades involves governments promising to limit their borrowing, only to discover that hardly anyone cares. So target dates slip, bonds are issued, and the debts keep rising. This time around the timing is especially notable, since eight years of global growth ought to be producing tax revenues sufficient to at least moderate the tide of red ink. But apparently not. Full Story
According to Bill Murphy of GATA.org, in the last four years the gold cartel has dropped tons of precious metals on the market following Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, the overall market mechanics remain bullish amid solid physical bullion sales. Jim Rickards, notes how the a global flight to quality is adding support for the PMs sector. Full Story
Whether you ride this bull market or stay on the sidelines is not a matter of brilliance, but of risk management. To illustrate, we look at lessons to be learned from the “greatest predictor” of market returns (hint: it isn’t). Nobody knows whether the market is going to plunge next year, but anyone who fears that it might may be well served taking that that into account, as staying fully invested presumably implies taking on more risk than one is comfortable with. Full Story
In recent weeks, the War on Gold, which is a subset of the broader War on Human Freedom, has sharply intensified, with massive, multi-billion dollar naked short price raids now being launched on a weekly and even daily basis by the criminal, state-sponsored price manipulators. This escalation proves the supreme importance to the Deep State financial elite of the maintenance of their gold price dictatorship, which is a vital component of their long term, systemic campaign of financial plunder. Full Story
Remember how the Fed, ECB and others all claimed ZIRP and QE were about generating economic growth, making mortgages more affordable, and helping consumers? Well, that was a gigantic lie. The truth is that every major policy employed by Central Banks since 2008 have been about one thing… Maintaining the bond bubble. Full Story
A popular phrase in segments of the mainstream financial media is that “You Can’t Eat Gold”. We don’t know who first uttered this comment, but it was more than likely a talking-head or Wall Street analyst on CNBC or Bloomberg. The disparaging claim seems to be based on concluding that in a financial or monetary crisis, if you own gold, that “You Can’t Eat It”. And so, according to the logic of whoever came up with the phrase, this would make gold useless during a financial crisis. Full Story
This has the potential to be a top, or it could just intensify the bubble mentality even more, making it even that much more likely that investors get caught when the top arrives. The more times the market recovers the more convinced traders become that there is no risk thus causing them to hold too long and get trapped when the final top does occur. Full Story
So the world’s governments screw up their countries’ finances by borrowing too much and (in order to afford the interest on their debts) pushing interest rates down to zero. Then they tell savers — who are just trying to put something away for life’s exigencies — that their bank accounts aren’t helping society, and encourage those people to take risks with their meager nesteggs. Full Story
Bulls’ failure this week to achieve the 1305.00 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (click on inset) is not exactly a sign of robust health. Actually, the good guys needed to have done somewhat better than that, surpassing the 1312.70 peak from October 16, to show their seriousness. Instead, they died well shy of it; and, to make matters worse, relapsed on Wednesday to a new weekly low. The technical damage would begin to look serious if sellers push the February contract beneath 1278.50, the point ‘C’ low of the 1305.00 rally pattern. Full Story
Every now and then we see some kind of anomaly on the precious metals market. Sometimes it’s particularly useful and sometimes it’s just something random. Yesterday was one of those days when something didn’t seem right. The USD Index rallied, silver declined, mining stocks declined and yet, gold closed the session higher. What can we infer from this uncommon event? Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 29 November, 2017
Too many technical analysts dismiss fundamentals. True, technicals usually lead fundamentals but understanding the fundamental drivers (when it comes to Gold) can give you an edge. Gold and gold stocks have remained below their 2016 peaks even in the face of a very weak US Dollar because the fundamentals are not there. Real rates have been stable in 2017 while the yield curve has been flattening. Until things change, Gold and gold stocks have little chance to breakout. Full Story
I attended the Silver and Gold Summit in San Francisco November 20 and 21. It was great connecting with the many people I know in the industry, but I will tell you that a) attendance was low, and b) crypto promoters were out in force. It turned out to be more of a gold and crypto conference than anything else. Some of the more lively sessions were the gold vs. crypto debates, and one company offered “free bitcoin!” if you opened an account with them. Full Story
Ordinarily news organizations are most interested in questions that high government officials refuse to answer. But mainstream financial news reporters are not interested in questions about secret government intervention in the gold market and secret interventions in markets generally. No, such questions are too sensitive, considered matters of national security. Full Story
Mike Maloney takes a look at a very important Bitcoin issue that could prove to be a market-mover in the new year: The IRS has realized that Bitcoin is a cash cow for them, but at the same time there is just a small percentage of Coinbase users who are filing gains or losses. What could this add up to? Full Story
McEwen Mining Chairman and CEO Rob McEwen, founder of Goldcorp, told investors in a conference call November 3 that his company is fully aware of the rigging of the gold market but is not trying to do anything about. Disappointing as this is generally and should be for his company's shareholders particularly, McEwen is far ahead of most other executives of monetary metals mining companies, since at least he can admit the obvious. Full Story
I have commented and written extensively on the generally negative correlation of the US dollar and gold. In simple terms, when the US dollar moves up or down, the price of gold tends to do the opposite. This makes sense because the price of gold is quoted on world markets in good ol’ American greenbacks. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a major buy signal. The cycle is down, as consolidation continues. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
An oceanic-scale demand push from "all parts Far East" is building, as the desire to own gold and silver promises to place an increasingly solid foundation for years to come. China, India, and Southeast Asia have historically accumulated precious metal as a savings vehicle, a hedge against political uncertainty (e.g. India's surprise call-in last year of 80% of the country's paper currency), and as an expression of affection. Full Story
So, for now, the point of this is simple. While we expect US dollar weakness to prompt a decent year for silver and all metals and commodities in 2018, until Comex silver can break free of the Bank shackles at the 200-day moving average, price will remain stuck in neutral. This will have an impact on mining share prices, too, so anyone interested in the sector should be sure to watch silver's 200-day moving average all through the month of December. Full Story
Most advice on long-term planning for retirement and Social Security benefits is based on the assumption that Social Security will fully keep up with inflation. As we are establishing in this series of analyses, the full inflation indexing of Social Security is a myth and there are major implications for standard of living in retirement as well as the associated decisions with regard to both Social Security and investment planning. Full Story
GDX sports a beautiful bull wedge pattern, and the next US jobs report is scheduled for Friday, December 8. That report should be the catalyst for a great gold stocks rally. It should also start gold on its final advance towards the key $1400 neckline area of the massive inverse HS bottom pattern, with an upside breakout occurring in 2018! Full Story
The Federal Reserve has been very clear through its' forward policy guidance that it will slowly increase the Fed Funds Rate. "Slow" however should more appropriately described here as at a "Glacier Pace"! Additionally the Fed plans to gradually reduce the central banks balance sheet at a slowly increasing rate. A rate that over 15 months totals only 10% of the $4.5T growth in the Fed's Balance Sheet since the beginning of the Fed's Quantitative Easing (QE) and ZIRP. Full Story
As you can see from the attached 21-minute DXY chart, we are now moving down into our target region we set for the (b) wave of the larger degree green a-wave of the green (b) wave, as shown on the daily chart. And, as long as the market holds over the 1.382 extension off the high in the 91.70 region, my expectation is that this (b) wave pullback will set up the DXY to rally over the 96 region. Full Story
Corporate share repurchases have turned out to be a great mechanism for converting Federal Reserve easing into higher consumer spending. Just allow public companies to borrow really cheaply and one of the things they do with the resulting found money is repurchase their stock. This pushes up equity prices, making investors feel richer and more willing to splurge on the kinds of frivolous stuff (new cars, big houses, extravagant vacations) that produce rising GDP numbers. Full Story
I spend a lot of time writing and talking about inflation, especially as it affects the price of gold, oil and other commodities and raw materials. The year-over-year percent change in the cost of living has been reasonably low for the past five years, averaging about 1.3 percent on a monthly basis. For commodities, the average change has been even lower at negative 0.9 percent, as measured by the producer price index (PPI). This hasn’t been too constructive for gold and oil producers, but it’s been a windfall for American consumers and manufacturers. Full Story
This year, (2017) was the year that the financial system moved from fearing deflation to expecting inflation. You can see this in the breakout in inflation expectations. From 2013 until mid-2016, the financial system’s expectations of future inflation were in a downtrend. Mid-2016 this changed as expectations began to rise, breaking this downtrend in early 2017. Full Story
One of the recurring themes of financial history is government over-reach leading citizens to mistrust the local currency and move money overseas, prompting the government to try to trap that wealth within its borders. This nearly always fails because rich people are clever and borders are really hard to seal. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 0.28 percent. Trade data shows Chinese imports of palladium are up 60 percent year-over-year. The world’s leading jeweler, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group, saw profits increase for a second consecutive six-month period as demand for gold in China lifts sales. This mirrors China’s recovery in demand for luxury goods after a two-year slump amid a corruption crackdown in the country, reports Bloomberg. Full Story
I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back. Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate! Full Story
The stock market can make for an interesting study in market psychology. You see, when the stock market is dropping strongly, as we experienced almost two years ago in the first few months of 2016, people turn bearish, and many were calling for a market crash just as we were bottoming in February of 2016. We then get to a point where bearish sentiment reaches an extreme and there is only one direction to which we can turn. It was at this point, near the 1800 region in the SPX, that the market turned in the opposite direction from its bearish extreme, and began the ascent in which we currently find ourselves. Full Story
Gold is a highly valuable asset. When your buy gold, It is critical to store your gold bars and gold coins in a location that is secure but at the same time accessible. There are many places to store gold and other precious metals in your home, with some places more secure and covert than others. Luckily, since physical gold has a high value-to-weight ratio, for most people, storing their gold bars and gold coins won’t take up too much space. Full Story
Last week, we made a very controversial statement. We are happy to write the truth, and let the chips fall where they may (e.g. our thoughtful disagreement with Ted Butler about price manipulation). We can accept the flak that we get for this, so long as our position is understood. Some criticized our approach as mere technical analysis, and therefore insufficient to the task of explaining the dynamics of the gold and silver markets. Full Story
Happy Thanksgiving holiday to USA listeners! Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company outlines a compelling case for a bubble in US shares. Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Institute outlines must hear methods for purchasing and storing PMs. Our guest has identified a golden opportunity to profit market anomalies. The gold / silver ratio of 70:1 suggests the accumulation of silver positions. Full Story
As I read articles in early 2016, the debate centered around how deep the “crash” is going to take us, and much of it was event-focused. As I now read articles as 2017 comes to an end, they are still discussing how deep the “crash” is going to take us, and it still remains event-focused. But, while many are debating that issue, I now see much debate on how high this market will take us. Full Story
Just as we think the markets might have a correction it makes new all-time highs once again. We are in the sweet spot for markets, given the period from November to April constitutes the best 6 months historically for stock markets. In December, we get the “Santa Claus” rally. Maybe Christmas is coming early this year. The period before and just after the U.S. Thanksgiving Day is traditionally strong as well. The month of November is traditionally the second or third strongest month of the year. Full Story
Bonfires are fun to watch, but they eventually burn out. Human folly apparently doesn’t, so we just keep adding to the absurdities. The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing. I shared a little of it with you in last week’s “Bonfire of the Absurdities.” Since it’s a holiday weekend and I was traveling all week, today I’ll just give you a few more absurdities to ponder. And this shorter letter will lighten your weekend reading load. Full Story
One of the major topics discussed in the precious metals community is the manipulation of the gold and silver prices by the large bullion banks. Many precious metals analysts point to the massive commercial short positions held by JP Morgan and Scotiabank as the root cause for the low silver price. While I agree that the bullion banks’ massive short contracts are controlling the silver price to a certain degree, there’s another factor that is overlooked by the majority of precious metals analysts. Full Story
Tonight I would like to show you some long term charts for the big three, Copper, Oil and Gold. There are a lot of similarities between them which is strongly suggesting all three should be in new bull markets. The laggard is gold which has still not confirmed its new bull market but is getting closer as you will see. The key will be what the US dollar has up its sleeves so lets start with a daily chart for the US dollar. Full Story
My guess is it will take Russia and China and the other BRICS nations most of 2018 to get all the nuances worked out and the gold trade settlement contracts will not actually come to the table until 2019 or possibly even 2020. We say this in light of what happened with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) bringing their gold settlement mechanism online back in April 2016. Full Story
The fact is, the stock market continues to tick higher, though not to the benefit of the mass majority of individuals who have simply not been able to partake in the "recovery" after the decimation they experienced via the 2008 crisis - a crisis that I contend has simply been papered over and one that will eventually once again rear its ugly head. Full Story
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