Lost among all the bullish predictions for the 2014 market outlook is a salient fact that few Wall Street analysts are aware of. What they fail to realize is that the powerful 40-year cycle bottoms later this year. Just how powerful is the 40-year cycle? Well consider that in the previous 120 years the 40-year cycle bottom has never failed to produce a major market decline. From the decline in late 1894 to the corrective pullback of 1934 to the devastating decline of 1974, the 40-year cycle has always made its presence felt in the stock market. Full Story
It's not exactly news that gold mining stocks have been in a slump for more than two years. Many investors who owned them have thrown in the towel by now, or are holding simply because a paper loss isn't a realized loss until you sell. Full Story
By: Kevin Michael Grace of The Gold Report - 31 January, 2014
Adrian Day likes to think long term, and historical trends persuade him that the bull market in gold should continue for years to come. In this interview with The Gold Report, the founder of Adrian Day Asset Management explains why he expects a significant gold price recovery in the near future. In the short term, he counsels investors to choose companies that minimize risk through royalty agreements, joint ventures and robust balance sheets. In other words, companies with the means to seize profit-making opportunities. Full Story
By: Michael J. Kosares, USA Gold - 31 January, 2014
In a certain sense, the U. S. experience in the 1970s was the first of the runaway stagflationary breakdowns, following President Nixon’s abandonment of the gold standard in 1971. Following the 1970′s U.S. experience, similar situations cropped up from time to time in other nation-states. Argentina (late 1990s) comes to mind, as does the Asian Contagion (1997), and Mexico (1986). Full Story
When I went all in to Precious Metals in May 2002, the first “guru” I read was Richard Russell. Now 89 years old, the ‘Dean of Financial Newsletters’ is still writing nearly every day. I no longer read him regularly, but his macroeconomic commentary remains the “gold standard” of the industry. He was dead on in predicting both the dollar’s demise and the Precious Metals bull; and as we speak, recommends a portfolio consisting principally of PHYSICAL gold and “just enough cash to carry us through each week” – per this commentary from last night. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 31 January, 2014
How would you feel if a bank teller told you that you couldn’t withdraw the amount of money you wanted from your account? What would your reaction be if he or she said “You can have $2,000.00 but you can’t have $5,000.00.” What would your reaction be if the bank asked you why you needed your money, you were enough of a sheep to tell them, they said “Prove it, then you’ll get your money.” Full Story
By executive order of the President of the United States, as announced in the State of the Union address, there is now a new type of tax-advantaged retirement account. These are the MyRAs, the user-friendly "my retirement accounts" for small investors, that are presented as being one part of the campaign to help close the income and wealth disparity gap in the US. And one of the issues that is identified as being part of that gap is that the poor and middle class have relatively little money in retirement accounts when compared to the wealthy and the upper middle class. Full Story
If the new-found mainstream awareness of price manipulation of precious metals is embraced with anything close to the impact of LIBOR and similar scandals, the news may ultimately be a sweet sorrow. The Financial Times is a long time staunch defender of the status quo and therefore, by default, negative and misguided toward precious metals. Recently, for the first time, the publication broke a story about price manipulation in the gold market. Full Story
With last week’s emerging markets currency crisis still fresh I thought I would bring back two previously shown charts that everyone should be aware of. First the currency crisis. Currency crises are not new. Currency crises were at the heart of the Great Depression. Since the world came off the gold standard with the end of Bretton Woods in August 1971, there have been a series of currency crises. Full Story
This and other Signals provide us a Road Map for highly likely future performance for certain Key Sectors. Indeed, one Sector is Signaling it is ready to Reverse VERY SOON and make a very Major Move. Consider what the Signals tell us about the Sectors we cover. Full Story
In my previous article, “Gold, Bottom or Bounce”, I displayed a chart that accurately predicted a high probability bottom in Gold on Dec 30 with an uptick confirmation on Dec 31, and that Gold was about to undergo a very substantial rally. However, there were other reasons for displaying that particular chart that will now become apparent when you look at it below. Namely, this ‘mystery chart’, which is the relative strength ratio of Gold divided by the Dow Jones Utility Average, also assists in determining where we approximately are in the business cycle. Full Story
Business Development Companies (BDCs) are publicly traded private debt and equity funds. I know that description isn’t terribly sexy, but keep reading and you’ll find there’s a lot to be excited about. BDCs provide financing to firms too small to seek traditional bank financing or to do an IPO, but at the same time are too advanced to interest the earliest-stage venture capitalist. These companies are often near or at profitability and just need extra cash to reach the next milestone. Filling this void, BDCs provide funds to target companies in exchange for interest payments and/or an equity stake. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Lawrence Roulston - 29 January, 2014
Geologist, engineer, Midas-touch investor and financial newsletter publisher Lawrence Roulston has little patience for investors without the nerves to hold onto a good thing during tough times. Gold has been the main embodiment of value for thousands of years, Roulston points out, so why should tomorrow be different? In this interview with The Gold Report, Roulston has some tips on how to double down on gold investments and wipe away the tears. Full Story
Major and mid-tier gold miners hold 54.3% of global reserves and resources worldwide. The rest is held by junior miners and governments. While bigger companies such as the majors hold the largest deposits, more than 70% of them are already in production. In light of Goldcorp’s offer for Osisko for $2.6 billion, we show how much gold all of the majors have left to mine in their reserves and resources. Then, we break down a few majors that we think may be the next ones to make a major transaction. Full Story
Bear markets always end. Has this one? Evidence is mounting that the bottom for gold may be in. While there's still risk, there's a new air of bullishness in the industry, something we haven't seen in over two years. An ever-growing number of industry insiders and investment analysts believe the downturn has come to a close. If that's true, it has immediate and critical implications for investors. Doug Casey told me last week: "In my lifetime, the best time to have bought gold was 1971, at $35; it ran to over $800 by 1980. In 2001, gold was $250: in real terms even cheaper than in 1971. It ran to over $1,900 in 2011. Full Story
From the bully pulpits in São Paulo to the blogosphere in cyberspace, the Fed is blamed for the turmoil in Emerging Markets (EM). That’s a bit like blaming McDonald’s for obesity. Blaming others won’t fix the problems in EM economies, it won’t fix investors’ portfolios and it is an unlikely way to lose weight. Investors and policy makers need to wake up and realize that they are in charge of their own destiny. Full Story
Every week, our investment team reviews a variety of sources to formulate a summary of the top events in the gold, resources, and emerging markets. The results are categorized in terms of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Investors can use this SWOT model to help make informed decisions about gold and gold stock investments. Full Story
By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money - 29 January, 2014
Chinese demand is a far more important determinant of gold prices going forward than QE tapering by the Federal Reserve. Just look at other markets. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 29 January, 2014
An imploding economy would not explain the firming of bullion prices that has occurred in recent weeks, however. Gold and silver have been so weak for so long that it’s difficult to imagine that they are moving higher now merely in reaction to the stock market’s relatively rare bout of weakness. We might conclude that if the precious metals sector has in fact embarked on a new bull market, something more dramatic than falling share prices and recession must be looming on the horizon. Full Story
Junior venture companies in Canada are finally seeing a significant lift. In early January, the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index rose above the 200-day moving average for the first time in three years. The index is also very close to experiencing a golden cross, which is when the shorter-term 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historically, traders see this cross as extremely bullish. Full Story
While global stock markets have not done well since “taper number one” was announced in December, the performance of gold stocks since then has been superb. The FOMC meeting begins today, and culminates with a policy announcement from the Fed, at about 2PM on Wednesday. Money managers are nervous, because in the past few trading sessions the sell-off in the Dow has dramatically accelerated. Full Story
By: Vanessa Collette, GoldSeek TV - 27 January, 2014
Vanessa Collette interviews Jay Layman, a Director, the President and Chief Operating Officer of Seabridge Gold, chats with Vanessa Collette about his company's exciting activities in northern British Columbia and explains why he sees positive things ahead for the mining industry. Filmed live at Vancouver Cambridge House Conference. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold Forecaster - Global Watch - 27 January, 2014
China cannot hold prices down. It can only buy what it can by ‘buying the dips’ and sourcing gold outside of the London market. It will continue to do that. But with the supply/demand picture changing so much in 2014 and beyond, they will accept rising prices. We believe they have been buying knowing that would happen in the future. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and David Morgan - 27 January, 2014
When the bulls are running for the doors, that is a sign that we have hit bottom and wise investors should hold on to their portfolios for the ride up, says Silver-Investor.com Editor David Morgan in this interview with The Gold Report . It may take a couple of resource war-addled years for gold and silver prices to move back to profitable levels, but the right companies could make money all the way up. Full Story
With the Standard & Poor's 500 Index having posted a 30% gain, it's easy to assume that U.S. stocks easily led the world in 2013. (There is more on what is behind this rally in the latest version of the Euro Pacific Capital Newsletter). But as it turns out, the stimulus-loving U.S. markets had plenty of company. Surprisingly, this includes countries supposedly saddled by the scourge of austerity. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 27 January, 2014
Citizens of the U.S. and world are heading into a future that few have prepared. It will also turn out to be much worse than most realize as it will be unlike anything we have witnessed in the past. Part of the reason we are in such a bad fix has to do with the compartmentalization and specialization of our modern educational and economic system. There are many intelligent people in the market doing smart things, however they have no clue on what the hell is going on in other industries or professions. Full Story
Just a few quick words this week. I am in the middle of a larger theme piece that you will have to enjoy next Tuesday. Much is happening this week, from options expiry, to earnings (they are falling generally) to building divergences of important indicators against stocks, to pattern convergence / divergence, where yesterday’s weakness is a shot across the bow a truncation of both count and pattern may be upon us. Obviously we won’t know until afterwards, but this is possible, however unlikely. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. - 27 January, 2014
But GATA presses on and as we do it may be good not to get bogged down in details here and there. Whether the gold of Germany's Bundesbank really remains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Banque de France is an exciting question, and the inability of those central banks to account convincingly for the gold is indeed evidence that at least one of them has done something for which it doesn't want to account. But that's largely speculation, and while speculation can be fun and sometimes useful, we don't need it when we have the documentation. Full Story
We are at the doorstep of a major USTreasury Bond breakdown. The TNX (10-year bond yield) is at the 3.0% doorstep, as 3.5% looms very likely in the coming months. A horrible threat of a 3.7% target is presented in the chart. A rising trend is seen in many characteristics that cannot be easily dimissed. The following graphic is an extremely powerful chart, thus the center piece of the article. If and when the breakout comes, it will make the Taper Talk backfire seem rather insignificant, as a gathering storm will hit like a financial hurricane on every continent. The Jackass is on record with a forecast of 3.5%, which remains in place. Full Story
Gold’s technical picture has improved since the last bullish update just over a month ago, but it has still not broken out the intermediate downtrend that started back last August, which we can see drawn on the 8-month chart shown below. Full Story
Last month I warned about the bubble in the stock market, and what was going to happen when it popped. Make no mistake the chart of the S&P is the most dangerous chart in the world. When this parabolic structure collapses, it is going to bring down the global economy. Full Story
China has effectively cornered the gold market over the past couple of years by draining the vaults of the world and will now create a shortage of the yellow metal that will hike its price just as the US billionaire Hunt Brothers goosed silver in 1980 and sent the price to levels it has never achieved again in 34 years. Full Story
Is there a difference between fundamental analysis v technical analysis? A qualified yes. How so qualified? We do not speak for others, not even from the "technical" camp for there is a distinct difference between strict technical analysis and "reading" a chart based solely on price and volume. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics - 26 January, 2014
The Second Most Expensive Stock Market in the World Who’s Got Your Risk? Join Me in San Diego Home Again, Los Angeles, Miami, and Argentina And Final Thoughts on the Employment Participation Rate Full Story
A bad week for markets as Thursday and Friday saw heavy heavy selling and we have now broken a very bearish pattern in the index charts which I’ve talked about here for the past week or so. We could have a ways to go in this general correction but we are due for a bounce that should come Monday. Bounces in a downtrend are general sharp and large. Full Story
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