A frequently trotted-out rule in investing is when there is blood in the streets, it's time to take a stock position. When it comes to senior, mid-tier and junior gold stocks, the blood is definitely flowing, despite gold rising 4% year-on-year and 12.5% throughout 2017. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, outlines his technical perspective on US shares, gold, silver indexes. Our guest continues to monitor the technical condition of the PMs sector, noting the positive inverse golden cross. Given the sharp advance in the gold, silver, commodities, XAU and WTIC , Arch Crawford is anticipating a new bull market, music to the ears of PMs aficionados. Regarding US equities indexes, volatility was too low for too long - he expects a return to the mean resulting in a capitulation moment. Full Story
According to the United States Treasury its 261 million ounces (± 8,100 tonnes) in official gold reserves are fully audited and accounted for. Because for many decades rumours are making rounds this gold has been covertly sold, in this essay we’ll thoroughly scrutinise the audits – indirectly evaluating the accuracy of the gold claims by the Treasury. What we’ll encounter is a wide range of problems in the audit documentation obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests submitted at the US government. Full Story
Back in the 1990s, critics of the dot-com bubble used to point out that the global economy depended on the US stock market and the US stock market depended on, like, ten Internet stocks with negative aggregate earnings. The resulting inverted financial pyramid was, the critics claimed, very easy to tip over. Full Story
As many of you know, I run a trading room with well over 3500 members, including over 450 money managers. I have seen the good, the bad, and the ugly as far as what traders and investors do through the years. And, no matter how much I warn about the pitfalls in the market, many chose to ignore me, and eventually learn on their own the hard way. Full Story
We are watching LIBOR closely. In the Gold News Monitor from August 25, 2016, we addressed the issue of rising LIBOR (it hit a 7-year high then). We calmed investors that the increase was caused by new U.S. money market rules. Now, LIBOR is again on the rise. Actually, it climbed to the highest level since 2009, attracting some attention. However, the fears seem to be overblown, as the current rise seems to stem from technical factors, not from a banking panic. Full Story
Silver demand increases every year and will push prices higher. Our modern world depends upon electronics, computers, missiles, fighter jets, cruise missiles, technology, communication devices and more. Each new application adds to silver demand. Medical applications, electric cars and photovoltaic solar panels need more silver and will boost demand. Full Story
Central bank gold price suppression is a well-documented fact. Central banks have a long and colorful history of manipulating the gold price. This manipulation has taken many shapes and forms over the years. It also shouldn’t be surprising that central banks intervene in the gold market given that they also intervene in all other financial markets. It would be naive to think that the gold market should be any different. Full Story
Let’s just assume for a moment that an oil contract denominated and settled in Chinese yuan for whatever reasons becomes more attractive to oil traders than one denominated and settled in U.S. dollars. To the degree that decision is shared among market participants, demand will lessen for dollars and increase for yuan – strengthening one and weakening the other. Instead of all oil purchases being routed through the dollar, some level of the international oil trade will be routed through the yuan, including among American companies. Full Story
There has been a lot of talk lately about the bullish internals of COMEX silver, and rightfully so! The size of the Speculator net short position is the largest in two decades, and this is a decidedly bullish indicator. Since all of this data comes from the weekly, CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders reports, we thought it would be fun to take a look back today and compare/contrast the current open interest and CoT structure to 2011, the last time price got "disorderly" to the upside. Full Story
In commodity markets backwardation is an indicator of physical shortages. Shortages result in buyers bidding up the cash price of the commodity above the future prices. This creates a profitable trade (called decarry) for those holding the physical commodity – they can sell it now and buy a futures contract at a lower price, locking in a profit. Full Story
“Some things never change. Some things do.” You might be wondering why we are quoting one of the lines from the Matrix movie. The reason is because that’s exactly what we can say about the gold market and the price patterns in it. The thing that never changes is the fact that gold will always somehow react to the fundamental news, but the way it reacts will vary over time. Full Story
For those of you who remember the movie Trading Places, this was a famous scene that I always remember when we see emotional reactions in the market after a downdraft. And, when I went to read articles being published over the weekend, it seems they were all pretty much in agreement with the sentiment expressed in this scene: “You idiot. Get back in there and sell, sell, sell.” Full Story
In last week’s Investor Alert, our investment team shared with you a report from Morgan Stanley that says bitcoin’s price decline since December mimics the Nasdaq tech bubble in the late 1990s. This isn’t earth-shattering news in and of itself. The main difference is that the bitcoin rout happened at 15 times the rate as the tech bubble. Full Story
The developed world has lived with unnaturally-low interest rates for so long that it’s become hard to imagine what life in a normal financial system would be like. But as rates finally start to rise, some of the necessary lifestyle adjustments are emerging. A big one is the fact that the days of refinancing one’s house every few years to extract free cash or lower the monthly mortgage payment are over. Now you pay what you pay, for as long as it takes. Full Story
Short term traders who took my recommendation to buy the $1310 area should be sellers in this $1340-$1355 area. That’s because there could be quite a bit more coiling action before a true breakout above $1370 occurs. The bottom line is that investors need to be patient and traders need to book profits now! Looking at the big picture, the inflation trade is clearly becoming more positive for gold every day. The Trump decision to appoint John “The Hawk” Bolton to a key post in his administration makes the geopolitical trade for gold a positive one as well. Full Story
If Mozhaiskov found GATA as ridiculous as Gilburt does, the central banker’s courtesy was all the more amazing. As his speech discloses, Mozhaiskov knew full well what GATA was about and surely was aware of how GATA was likely to construe his remarks. Neither Mozhaiskov nor anyone else at the Bank of Russia has ever complained that GATA has misconstrued him. Only Gilburt has made such an allegation, as if he knows what central bankers think better than they themselves do. Full Story
Calling the precise top of a bubble is all but impossible. This is particularly true when you have a White House administration that openly admits it views stocks as a “report card.” Rarely does the one being graded have the ability to manipulate the results of his or her “report card.” In this case, the White House does. Full Story
Last Thursday, the Dow Jones fell 724 points. It followed up with a 424 point decline on Friday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq fell 2.43% Friday. Most analysts blamed the plunge on fear of an all-out trade war between the US and China. But the Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday also likely played a part in the stock market decline. The markets don’t like the prospect of having their easy-money punch bowl taken away. Full Story
In a January post, I showed how the price of gold rallied in the months following the 2015 and 2016 December interest rate hikes—as much as 29 percent in the former cycle, 17.8 percent in the latter. Gold ended 2017 up double digits, despite pressure from skyrocketing stocks and massive cryptocurrency speculation. Full Story
Has silver's time finally arrived? This week Mike Maloney links to several pieces of news and data that show a massive shift in the silver market, as well as a gigantic nail in the coffin for the US Dollar Standard. Be sure to read the accompanying articles and watch the video Mike mentioned for some excellent in-depth analysis on why now might be the time for silver. Full Story
We are going to explore all of these in the discussion on a Global context. This is another important point because we too often don't properly distinguish whether we are talking domestically or globally - too often assuming in America they are one and the same. Today the Global context is critically important because as far as these terms are concerned there are no longer any borders and move at "light speed" around the globe as electronic "bits". Full Story
Trade war. This topic dominated the recent days. Last week, President Trump announced plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports. In response, Liu He, China’s vice-prime minister, told Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary, that China is ready to defend its interests. Indeed, on Friday the country announced plans to impose tariffs on about $3 billion of U.S. imports. So are we at war? Full Story
Precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on buy signals. Cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
A new phrase has been added to our lexicon of late, and that is what has become known as "fake news." This new phraseology can be aptly applied to that which is presented by our old friends at the GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action) committee. Full Story
Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008. The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output. Full Story
It feels like were at the point in the “correction” cycle in which the mining stocks are reluctantly going lower. I also believe that aggressive hedge funds looking to buy at this level are trying to push the stocks down in early trading in order to induce remaining weak hands to sell in their bids. Tuesday (March 20th) is a perfect example. Several of the stocks I own were hammered early and then snapped-back during the course of the day. As an example, USAU opened at US$1.84 but was slammed down to $1.75. It rebounded to close down only 2 cents at $1.80. This was despite sideways movement in gold after gold was hit in early morning trading. Full Story
Over the past 14 months, the Trump administration has rolled back government regulations, streamlined bureaucracies, cut taxes, and proposed major infrastructure buildouts and tariffs on imports of aluminum, steel, and Chinese goods. Combined with a stronger economy, booming stock markets, and higher commodity prices, it seems likely that mineral demand will increase in the short to midterm. So this is an opportune time to provide an update on our overwhelming reliance on foreign sources to meet domestic mineral demand. Full Story
Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events, even though that looks impossible to begin with. It could be an action movie, where our tough and underestimated hero overcomes seemingly impossible odds to just barely win in the end, after all. Full Story
If the latest COT report for silver gets any more bullish than the one released on March 23rd, commercial traders will have to go ‘net long!’ As it is, they reduced their ‘net short’ position to the lowest number in many years, down to just 4,000 contracts – barely 2% of the total open interest! This is bullish action! As recently as January 16th the number of ‘net short’ positions was 50,000, and the percentage of open interest was 26%. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, up 2.50 percent. Gold traders are the most bullish they’ve been since January 26, according to Bloomberg’s weekly survey. Gold is headed for its largest gain in five weeks after the Fed projected three interest rate hikes in 2018, easing concern that they would be more aggressive with four rate hikes for the year. The yellow metal historically rises after the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set up for the GLD as a proxy for gold. I believe that the GLD can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to the GLD. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think the GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements. Full Story
Maybe it is slightly creepy that an ad for a product you visited keeps popping up on websites you visit. But then data mining and creating profiles on your likes is something, it seems, that the web was built for. Yes, “Big Brother” has been watching you, and one hopes it has all been benign—nothing more than tailoring ads to pique your interest. But now it has taken another turn and suddenly what seemed benign has begun to turn dark and ominous. Maybe it was always so. Full Story
Imagine if the world's metre sticks all grew or shrunk a bit each year. That would make for a confusing system of weights and measures, wouldn't it? Well, that is exactly what happens with money. We have been measuring the world around us for thousands of years. Units like feet and cubits have been used for distances, pounds and kilograms to measure weight, and dollars and yen to measure economic value. Full Story
I could probably count on one hand the number of songs – that for whatever reason, I might stomach on repeat indefinitely. For What It’s Worth – by Buffalo Springfield, is one of them. I say this, because the opening refrain from the more than 50-year young classic, “There’s something happening here/ What it is ain’t exactly clear,” has been rattling behind my thoughts over the past month or so as I consider a few key markets and the mounting opaqueness of the current macro environment. Somehow I’m sure Steven Stills would be immensely disillusioned with the connection, perhaps something along the lines of – “It’s a protest song, pal – not a meditation on markets.” Full Story
Picture, if you will, a group of slaves owned by a cruel man. Most of them are content, but one says to the others, “I will defy the Master.” While his statement would superficially appear to yearn towards freedom, it does not. It betrays that this slave, just like the others, thinks of the man who beats them as their “Master” (note the capital M). This slave does not seek freedom, but merely a small gesture of disloyalty. Of course, he will not get his liberty (but maybe a beating). Full Story
Look at the positioning of the mighty Commercial Traders, who rarely lose money and who operate under the blinded eye of regulatory oversight and governmental sanctuary. As of last Tuesday, the most powerful group of traders ever to operate under the watchful eye of the Working Group on Capital Market wiggled out of a massive 41,497-contract short position in silver on January 23, and arrived in full regalia this week short a mere 3,709 contracts. To provide some modicum of perspective, the Commercials were short a notional amount of silver that would correspond to 207,485,000 ounces worth $3.3 billion at the $16.20 per ounce benchmark on January 23, and are now short a notional 18,545,000 ounces worth a paltry $300,429,000. Full Story
Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case? Full Story
I had intended to post part III of my interest rate series, however market conditions dictate that I post views on the current market. This market is now communicating that it is at high risk. For two months now, I have been advocating a strategic retreat. Head for the sidelines and watch the action with an unemotional detachment. The market is now sounding the alarm and one should be on high alert for a downside acceleration. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org returns with his perspective on the PMs sector. Savvy central banks around the globe recognize the strategic significance of bullion as sound money as seen by the continuing trend of PMs accumulation. Peter Schiff expects gold and silver to experience a renaissance in 2018. While gold remains the de facto safe haven asset, Bitcoin has competing aspects that are particularly appealing during political turmoil. Full Story
The gold price began to rally as soon as trading began at 6:00 p.m. EDT in New York on Thursday evening -- and most of the gains that mattered in Far East and morning trading in London, were in by shortly before 9 a.m. China Standard Time on their Friday morning. By the COMEX open, gold was up only another few dollars from there. The price spiked up a bit at that point, but obviously wasn't allowed to get much higher -- and the high tick of the day came a few minutes after the afternoon gold fix in London. After that, the price didn't do much, or wasn't allowed to do much for the remainder of the Friday session in New York. Full Story
China is working a strategy with the Saudis. Since the last months of 2017, the Jackass has been firm that the ARAMCO deal for IPO stock introduction might never occur. And if it did, then Hong Kong might be the only location for the IPO launch. It seems that disclosure and transparency is non-existent to this Arab kingdom. Now the stock listing might be in Riyadh and nowhere else. Imagine the risk to brokerage houses if the truth comes out, that the Saudi oil reserves are only 20% to 40% of the disclosed amount, a grand lie and deep fraud. Full Story
Friday’s commitment of traders (COT) report for gold and silver offered more of the same. Which is to say the gold futures action was boring and the silver action was strange and exciting. Starting with gold, the large speculators – who, remember, tend to be wrong at big turning points – got a little less optimistic, while commercials – who tend to be right at big turning points – did the opposite. But both groups are still in unfavorable territory, with the speculators too long and the commercials too short. Looked at in a vacuum this is not good short-term news for gold. Full Story
Valuing a stock isn’t hard. Each share is worth exactly as much as a buyer offers you when you try to sell. Quite simple. But of course, there’s more to it. We heard a lot about valuations at my Strategic Investment Conference, and particularly about the “FAANG” stocks that drove much of the recent bull run. Now, only two weeks later, the “F” in that acronym (Facebook) is tumbling, with the others maybe not far behind. Full Story
The US Central Bank is (very) slowly but surely removing the beneficial tools that jimmied the system long after they were used to bail out the financial crisis damage that was instigated by previous Central Bank excesses (hello Greenspan). And now into the breach steps Trump, the man taking the US back to the good old days of my youth when America was still an industrial giant with thriving steel and coal industries and men cranking handles on manually operated machines. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
As the sell-off in the broader stock markets intensifies, it will be bad news for the world’s largest oil companies. Why? Because cracks are already beginning to appear in the biggest and most profitable global oil companies. While rising costs and higher debt levels have been plaguing the U.S. shale oil industry, these negative factors are now impacting the major oil companies as well. Full Story
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