One of the biggest stories in the resource sector this year is how well Australian gold stocks have performed. They’ve absolutely crushed their peers in the western hemisphere. Below is a chart which shows the huge out performance of the Australian gold producers over their North American listed cohorts. You can see the gap in returns is very wide. Full Story
The Fed was notably more dovish in its tone this week. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell warned of "generally elevated" asset prices. But then he followed that with: "The resulting drop in asset prices might be particularly large, given that valuations appear elevated relative to historical levels." We also got the headline: “Fed warns that a 'particularly large' plunge in market prices is possible if risks materialize.” Full Story
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent recent months mostly languishing near major multi-year lows. That spawned a sentiment wasteland riddled by bearishness and bereft of bids. But these companies’ battered stock prices aren’t fundamentally righteous, as proven yet again by their latest earnings season. Faring far better in a challenging third quarter than stock prices imply, they need to mean revert way higher. Full Story
In Part I. of this discussion with Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors includes a startling sea change in attitude towards the PMs sector. After years of bearishness, Bob Hoye announced the potential for an epic GOLD RUSH on the horizon in the PMs sector, in particular, the mining shares. Lower expenses and deflation in typical shares enhance their appeal of PMs equities to the benefit of shareholders. Full Story
Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) joins the show from his vacation office in tropical Crypto-Rico, where air conditioning service, not heating is the chief concern today. Key takeaway - gold is building a base that will likely culminate in new record prices, from $2,000 - $5,000 and under extreme conditions, $10,000+. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA - 30 November, 2018
Recent market and economic developments are positive for Gold and precious metals but conditions are not bullish yet. Bullish conditions and bullish fundamentals would be highlighted by a shift in Fed policy. They aren’t shifting yet. They are slowing, which precedes a shift. From a market standpoint, we need to see strength in Gold in real terms (against stocks and foreign currencies) and a steepening of the yield curve. These developments along with shifting Fed policy will tell us a new bull market is soon to begin. Full Story
Once in a while it seems everything aligns just right and the world spins in the orbit we choose. This happened recently just after the publication of Gold: Still Money for a Reason The article was published on several other websites and generated quiet a bit of noise. We always like it when that happens! The really good news is Jp Cortez, Policy Director, Sound Money Defense League, reached out to me about republishing some of his work. Needless to say I was flattered and humbled that someone of his caliber would reach out to The Daily Coin. Full Story
One of the greatest asset bubbles of all time appears to have just burst. It’s not the stock market. Despite recent downside volatility amidst bubble-like valuations, so far stocks have merely entered a correction. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, have entered into a full-blown meltdown. Bitcoin will go down in history for its extraordinary rise from zero to a high of $19,783 on December 17, 2017. Its subsequent fall may be one for the history books as well. Full Story
Michael Robinson, chief technology strategist of Money Map Press, is a lot of things: devoted son and father, technologist, avid skier and gun enthusiast, accomplished blues guitarist, Pulitzer Prize nominee. Full Story
Questions are asked to get answers, but refusals to answer may be enough to permit conclusions to be drawn and thus in effect constitute answers as well. With all these recent refusals to answer, who really cannot believe that governments and central banks long have been manipulating the gold market so they might control the currency markets and thereby defeat all markets? Full Story
Even though interest in precious metals has fallen over the past few years, investment demand is still the largest growth sector in the silver market. Yes, it may be hard to believe, but physical silver investment has grown the most since the 2008 financial crisis compared to the other sectors. And while industrial users consume the highest amount of silver in the overall market annually, its total demand has fallen over the past decade. Full Story
However, the Fed does not see neither a broad-based buildup of abnormal leverage, nor dangerous excesses in the stock market. Therefore, it should continue its policy of gradual tightening. The next hike is still coming in December. And a few more next year. So, gold bulls should not open the champagne too early. But who knows: today, the FOMC will publish the minutes of its last meeting and we could learn more about the mindset of the Fed officials. Stay tuned! Full Story
Wednesday’s monster rally was just the beginning of a surge that can end only when the last die-hard bear has thrown in the towel. Although the short-covering panic goosed stocks into the clouds, the wild-blue-yonder, blow-off phase lies just ahead. Hundreds of stocks, most crucially AAPL, lifted from the danger zone, shifting the herd’s tiny, fevered brains from bearish to bullish in the space of just a single day. Full Story
This is of course just the first step in a long dance that will progress through: 1) The end of rate increases sometime in early 2019 2) The beginning of rate cuts soon thereafter 3) And return to ZIRP, NIRP and QE not long after that From here on out every Fed meeting will be an adventure. Full Story
Housing and auto sales appear to have hit a wall over the last 8-12 weeks. To be sure, online holiday sales jumped significantly year over year, but brick-n-mortar sales were flat. The problem there: e-commerce is only about 10% of total retail sales. We won’t know until January how retail sales fared this holiday season. I know that, away from Wall Street carnival barkers, the retail industry is braced for disappointing holiday sales this year. Full Story
In 2008, global debt totals were in the area of $170 trillion, to the tune of 275% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP). Today those figures are above $250 trillion and well over 300% of GDP. Look at how little the world's financial wizards seemed to have learned from the crises which literally came within hours of taking the entire global financial system down with it. So if you haven't taken this opportunity into declining prices to either establish a position in physical gold and silver, or have yet to "top off" your holdings, consider answering the question Dirty Harry often posed to his opponents, "Do you feel lucky today?" Full Story
Pump too much credit into the economy (created by central banking and fractional reserve banking) and mal-investments expand. A recession cleanses the excess. But in 2008 the Fed “papered over” the problems and didn’t allow liquidation of bad debts, insolvent big banks and weak businesses. Instead the Fed created dollars from nothing and gave loans to big banks, insiders and the politically connected. Full Story
As we get closer to the major top I see in the markets, I will likely pen an article which will address my longer-term expectations on the markets. While I have discussed some of them with the members of my services, and have alluded to some of the issues I see in my public writings, I think we have strong potential to enter an environment unlike one we have experienced in one hundred years. However, we have seen glimpses and warnings of it during the past decade. I hope to elaborate in the years to come. Full Story
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined in a quite visible way yesterday, which is in tune with our previous expectations. In the previous days it was only silver and miners that declined in a meaningful manner, but yesterday gold joined them, making this a sector-wide decline. Is this the groundbreaking decline that we have been writing about for so long? Time will tell, but the earth is already shaking. Full Story
AAPL is struggling to hold above a crucial ‘Hidden Pivot’ support at $170, but if it gives way expect the broad averages to take another nasty leg down in sympathy. The stock is sufficiently oversold to be primed for a bear rally of perhaps 8-10%. But who would do the buying? Ordinarily, short-covering is the only source of bidding strong enough to excavate a stock from a trough as deep as the one AAPL has fallen into over the last month. But a bear squeeze seems increasingly unlikely now that the threat of a tariff on iPhones is in the news. Trump said Tuesday that he was considering broadening the trade war against China with levies on some high-volume consumer electronics products, including the iPhone. Full Story
The argument over whether we’re in for global warming or global cooling and whether what’s coming is natural or human-made is fun but totally irrelevant from a financial perspective. The fact is that for whatever reason and in whatever direction, the climate is getting more aggressive. Monster snowstorms and apocalyptic fires are clearly becoming more common. Full Story
Barrick shareholders are not just in good hands. They are in spectacular hands! A breakout from the bull wedge with a Friday close over $14 is a rocket launch signal for the entire gold mining sector. Rather than wasting time worrying about a tax loss season that is going the way of the dodo bird, I suggest that gold stock investors should be positioning themselves, as Goldman clearly is, for the rocket ride of a lifetime, in a fabulous gold bull era! Full Story
The TF Metal Report's Craig Hemke, writing today at Sprott Money, does the math on the last year's worth of the use of the "exchange for physicals" mechanism of settling gold futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange. Hemke calculates that nearly 2.4 million Comex gold contracts have been settled this way since last November, totaling 7,442 tonnes of gold. Full Story
Quite obviously, the answer is simple. There are no "exchanges for physical" taking place at all... at least not in the sense of actual, unencumbered and allocated physical metal. Instead, EFPs are just another part of the great scam known as The Fractional Reserve and Digital Derivative Pricing Scheme, where alchemized digital and unallocated gold is foisted upon the masses, who blindly accept "exposure to the gold price" as a substitute for the real thing. Full Story
In the more immediately bullish potential presented on silver and ABX, as long as their respective lows struck on the 14th and 13th of November are not broken, both are set up for rallies in the coming weeks. For silver, it can very well confirm a bottom has been struck if it does rally towards the 16 region, as presented by the green wave i on the 144-minute chart. Full Story
The latest edition of LBMA’s Alchemist focuses on the role of central banks in the gold market. Sylvie Goulard, Deputy Governor of Banque de France, wrote the first article, entitled Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future. According to her, the central bank of France has always been a major player in the gold market. Full Story
Summing up, linking the Yuan to gold would not prevent China’s economy from suffering the consequences of the widespread malinvestment of the past decade and probably would lead to much greater volatility in the prices of imports and exports. Most importantly, there is no way that the control freaks who lead the Communist Party of China are going to implement a monetary system that severely restricts their ability to intervene. Full Story
Will GE be the proverbial “black swan?” – It had come to my attention that General Electric was locked out of the commercial paper market three weeks ago after Moody’s downgraded GE’s short term credit rating to a ratings level (P-2) that prevents prime money market funds from investing in commercial paper. Commercial paper (CP) is an important source of short term, low-cost, liquid funding for large companies. Full Story
Has the Housing Bust 2.0 begun? If so, how bad could things get? And what steps should those looking to pick up values at much lower prices in the future be taking? This week we talk with citizen journalist Ben Jones, property manager and publisher of TheHousingBubbleBlog -- where he tracks the latest headlines and developments in the housing market. Full Story
Football is as much a part of Thanksgiving as turkey and family are, and nearly as old as the holiday itself. It was President Abraham Lincoln who proclaimed Thanksgiving a national holiday in 1863, saying that he hoped all Americans would carve out some time to bless the “widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged.” Full Story
AAPL has trampolined $4, or 2.4%, after bottoming an inch from the 170.78 ‘Hidden Pivot’ target I’ve been drum-rolling here for the last week. The stock was trading near $190 at the time the target was first broached. Friday’s low got close, hitting 171.85. But even when the stock opened higher on Monday, touching 175, I repeated a warning that AAPL would still have to fall to 170.78 before it could turn around. Full Story
A few follow up comments about the still rather remarkable announcement by the Department of Justice concerning the guilty plea by the former JPMorgan trader for spoofing in precious metals. Contained in the announcement was the statement that the guilty plea was accepted and sealed on Oct 9, nearly a month before it was unsealed on Nov 6. With a rather short sentencing date approaching on Dec 19, and the time it took to unseal the plea, it may be assumed that the trader has already fully cooperated in the hopes of reducing his jail time, said to approach 30 years with no cooperation. Full Story
There are times when every investor has to look long and deep into a mirror and determine whether a well-thought-out strategy is actionable or whether it is simply an ad hoc "hunch," barely worth chasing. With regard to silver, this is just one of those times. Full Story
We are now moving into the silly season. By silly season we are referring to all sorts of seasonal sayings that seem to permeate the stock markets during this time of the year. We had previously noted that, while October is famous for its crashes, it is also when we often see bear market bottoms. Almost as if on cue, the market, bottomed on October 29, 2018 and so far, it has held for most of the major indices. Full Story
Head of Research at GoldMoney, Alasdair MacLeod makes his show debut on Thanksgiving Day, 2018. Listeners are encouraged to bookmark his weekly commentary at Goldmoney Insights. Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives for 41 consecutive years rejoins the show. Our guest advises investors to hold a core position in gold, which could develop a base near current levels. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was gold, up 0.14 percent. The Bloomberg Intelligence Global Senior Gold Valuation Peers Index is heading for a fourth straight gain to mark the longest rally since September. The index posted its first monthly gain in seven months in October as investors are giving gold equities a second look now. Bloomberg’s Susanne Barton writes that gold equities are benefitting as investors bet that signs of a cooling global economy might mean gold prices have finally reached a bottom. Full Story
The DOJ looks poised to do what regulators at the CFTC have not. They will use evidence of blatant cheating and fraud to hold a few bankers accountable. Last week, DOJ officials asked the judge in a civil suit against JPMorgan Chase to delay proceedings for 6 months to clear the path for more prosecutions. Plaintiffs in that civil action have accused JPMorgan of ripping off investors based in part on evidence turned over by Deutsche Bank in 2016. Full Story
While all this may have seemed like cruelty towards those who got caught up in this scam, there was a serious purpose to it, which was to warn subscribers to steer well clear of it, and to expect it to fade into obscurity which is exactly what has happened. We haven’t looked at it since last February because we have better things to do with our time than waste it on something that is finished. This article may therefore be regarded as a “post mortem” with the final “nail in the coffin” of Bitcoin being the sudden brutal plunge last week, which ended the illusion being put about by Bitcoin promoters in recent months that it was basing. Full Story
The gold standard is more than just sound money. If it is to serve the needs of people and support modern civilization, it must be based on honest credit. It is about honesty and moral rectitude. We realize this is not sexy material. A headline screaming “gold to go to $5,000” with a subhead about people buying phyzz will grab everyone’s attention. A sermon containing the words “moral rectitude,” not so much. Full Story
Precious metals investors don’t have much to console them these days. Just about the only bright spot is the nice, though ephemeral, pop in the gold/silver price that seems to happen every January. Sometimes it persists for six or so months, sometimes it ends before the snows do. But either way it’s more fun than the rest of the year. Full Story
I have been getting such a chuckle from the market of late. As the market made its way down to our 2600 target region towards the end of October, more and more market participants and analysts became more and more bearish. In fact, the bearishness was palpable as we approached 2600SPX. Full Story
Last week, I talked about Ray Dalio’s new book on debt cycles. He describes how debt is inherently cyclical, because it enables more spending now that must be offset by less spending later. Ray’s book helped me refine my description of The Great Reset. It’s a critical refinement, too. After reading the book, I realized it is entirely possible we will have another debt crisis before what I think of as The Great Reset. I firmly believe the latter is still coming, but there may be another “mere” credit crisis beforehand. Full Story
While the debate on the dynamics of the gold market continues, at least the top gold miners production cost provides us with a floor price. Or rather, a basic minimum price level. I get a good laugh when I read analysts suggesting that the gold price will fall back to $450-$700. For the gold price to fall back to $450, then we would need to lose 95+% of global gold mine supply. Full Story
Oil is the lifeblood of the industrialized nations and it has become the world’s most important source of energy. Its products underpin modern society, mainly supplying energy to power industry, heat homes and provide fuel for vehicles and airplanes to carry goods and people all over the world. Full Story
Friday’s holiday-shortened session provided ample time for bulls to get their butts kicked. It’s unusual to see stocks get whacked the day after Thanksgiving, but perhaps such occurrences will become the norm as this bear market unfolds. If it proves to be as extraordinary as the bull market that preceded it, we shouldn’t be surprised to see bad days that are uglier than even old-timers can remember. Friday was not so bad, actually, considering that crude oil fell by nearly $5 a barrel. Full Story
One of the strangest things about this strangest-ever expansion has been the way pretty much everything went up. Stocks, bonds, real estate, art, oil – some of which have historically negative correlations with others — all rose more-or-less in lock-step. And within asset classes, the big names behaved the same way, rising regardless of their relative valuation. Full Story
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