By: The Gold Report and Richard Gray - 30 October, 2009
It's been a dollar vs. gold story ever since the economy ran into trouble last fall, according to Blackmont Metals and Mining Analyst Richard Gray, who sees inevitable inflation down the road. "The trouble is there are no real applicable precedents we can use," he explains, noting the prodigious amount of stimulus money flooding the economy. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 30 October, 2009
The recession is over! GDP grew at a 3.5% clip between July and September. Wall Street’s fortunes seemingly turned around overnight. But with the rally reminding everyone how fragile it is, are the boom times really here again? One of the world’s best investors thinks it will seem that way for a while, but - that could be bad news for the markets. Here’s why. Full Story
The precious metals market is correcting, as I mentioned it in the previous essay, when I summarized that it seems that gold, silver, and corresponding equities need to take a breather to correct their post-$1,000-breakout rally. This is what we’ve seen lately, so the question is how low can we go and what to look for as signs of a reversal. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 30 October, 2009
Although the Dollar recently made new lows against most major currencies, the Chinese Government has maintained a tight peg on the Yuan/Dollar ratio since July of 2008. However, the Yuan is likely to appreciate in the near future because China’s trade surplus continues to increase. Full Story
On March 23, 2009, China made public announcements to overhaul the global monetary system, thereby questioning the role of the US dollar as the reserve currency.1 Chinese officials have gone on record saying they want to move the global currency peg away from the dollar in favour of currency diversification as indicated by China's push for OPEC to price oil in a basket of currencies (including the yuan) instead of dollars. Full Story
Now the world's great brains want to see real interest rates sink further, back to sub-zero levels last seen during the late 1970s. Creating inflation in money is one thing, however; containing it in speculative card-shuffling quite another. The last three decades of financial rent-seeking are attempting to make a comeback this fall. But we wouldn't bet against inflation showing up in the cost of living as well if not instead. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 30 October, 2009
The GDP numbers out yesterday, which showed economic growth at 3.5% in the third quarter, brought a deafening chorus from public and private economists who all agreed that the recession is officially over. With such a strong report, they are happy to tell us that not only has the Fat Lady finished her aria, but she has left the building and is sipping champagne in the bath. As usual, it falls on me to rain on the parade. Full Story
Gold is likely to make a new inflation-adjusted high before its current bull move ends. That's the word from Frank Holmes the man behind the Morningstar 5-star rated U.S. Global Investors Gold and Precious Metals Fund, which is up 33% in the past year. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 30 October, 2009
Though not the most exciting of the earth’s minerals, the bellwether base metal has wrangled up a following. Since the beginning of copper’s powerful bull run, that took out all-time highs in 2005, this metal has made a place for itself on headline business-channel tickers and in everyday trader talk. Full Story
Thus, the Key to Profit and Protection is a Strategy: Successful Investors must become Long-Term Position Traders, with their trading choices informed by the Interventionals, as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals. Moreover engaging in the Actions suggested above can help prevent The Cartel’s obtaining Superpower status, and aid in achieving wealth protection and profits as well. Full Story
The year 2009 will most likely expire without commemorating the centenary of a most momentous event in history that figures prominently as the main cause of the Great Financial Crisis of the century. This event was the so-called legal tender legislation in 1909. The bank notes of both the Banque de France and the Reichsbank of Germany were made legal tender by law, first in France and then, a very short time later, also in Imperial Germany. Full Story
The paperbugs need to fear the future. It is coming. It is inevitable. It is not gloom and doom, it is not guns and food in a wilderness cabin, it is not the end of the world, and it is not the inflation or deflation debate. It is simply a Gold bubble. Full Story
Technology is rapidly moving forward. It has enabled ideas to spread at rapid speeds. The spread of these ideas is undermining the current power structures and revealing things are they really are. The FRN$ and all other fiat currencies are evaporating before the heat of gold and the rise of digital commodity currency. Full Story
The real question that needs to be posed to anyone supporting additional foolish stimulus needs to focus on an exit strategy. How will additional stimulus create a foundation for fundamental, healthy economic growth? The short answer is that it won’t, but lets make them answer anyway. Full Story
Actually, the golden opportunity is for buying silver at current prices. The motive for lifting the USDollar was the gargantuan $115 billion in USTreasurys offered this week. With bond yields rising from gargantuan supply, the USGovt and USDept Treasury and USFed did not wish to have both bond principal values fall and the USDollar fall. So the witch doctors engineered a meager semi-lifeless US$ rally, and a full 100-cent silver price discount. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 30 October, 2009
A well-known truism is that every investor needs to start with savings. But what if that “savings” gave the investor too much exposure to risk? What investors or people in general need in this financial environment is savings that don’t deteriorate. We are in an environment now where the idea of making money, which is kind of the preamble to being American, is going away. Full Story
It’s amazing to me how people with IQs supposedly above the single digit can look at and evaluate the present recession/depression and conclude that it was just a chance occurrence because of a bubble in the credit markets, a failure of government regulators to do their jobs, or some other fluke reason. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 30 October, 2009
The Guvvamint plastered a 3.5 percent GDP growth rate on the marquee yesterday, and traders acted as though the information had come from Walter Cronkite himself. We always expect the stock market to wet its pants when these dog-and-pony shows turn up the wow factor with “Sabre Dance” and a laser show. But did the bond markets have to go nuts as well? Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 29 October, 2009
Operating under the elixir of ultra-low interest rates, and flush with trillions of fiat currency at their disposal, courtesy of the world’s top-20 central banks, hedge funds and banking Oligarchs are once again making risky and daring bets in commodities, emerging markets, junk bonds, and blue-chip stocks, defying gravity with trades that would have been un-thinkable just six-months ago. Full Story
The US economy contracted for four consecutive quarters since October 2008, something we have not seen since the Great Depression. A V-shaped recovery is simply not in the cards because the credit crisis has caused deep, systemic damage. Having said that, if the recession ends this year, it certainly won’t be because the global economy is healthy. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Duane Grubert - 29 October, 2009
With the oil-and-gas price link weaker than it's been in over a decade and with natural gas too dependent on a fierce winter to fuel demand and drive pricing up, CRT Capital Group Senior VP Duane Grubert likes oil better than gas. Full Story
The gasoline for rampant inflation already permeates the US economy – and all it will take is one bad day for a series of interrelated supply shocks to set off an inflationary inferno. As we will cover in this article, the accelerant in this case is the $700 billion annual United States trade deficit. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 29 October, 2009
The 3 charts clearly illustrate the divergence between the Dow industrials, the Dow transports and utilities; the Dow has put in a series of new 52 week highs while the transports and utilities are struggling to get there. Prudence and caution are warranted now and traders should think twice before jumping into the markets. Full Story
The recent gold bull upleg is in the midst of a predictable slight correction and consolidation. When that finishes it is highly probable, based on seasonality and technicals, that the next part of the upleg will commence. The Federal Reserve and Washington are only making matters worse through their extremely damaging policies. Full Story
Commodities and stocks almost look ready for a rally or at least a relief bounce. The market is down over 5% and the normal pullback this year has been 4%. Using technical analysis and inter-market analysis we can see that the market is reaching extreme lows and this usually means we are only a couple days away from a rally. Full Story
Gold is experiencing a controlled price break. There hasn’t been panic liquidation. At the time of this writing, prices are down approximately $38 per ounce from the December Contracts all time high of $1072. This represents about a 3.5% decline. Small in overall terms. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 29 October, 2009
Over the past two years, the federal government and the Federal Reserve have dispersed trillions of public dollars, run up enormous deficits, and kept interest rates at zero. In just about any economic textbook, this combination of policies would be described as the perfect recipe for inflation. Yet, with the exception of the usual increases in health care and education, prices by and large are not rising. Many have concluded that our economic leadership has simply outsmarted the textbooks. Full Story
As we've long suspected here at BullionVault, in short, David Cameron's "New Tories" can grasp the financial case for reduced public spending. So could my five-year old...and my cat, come to that. But unlike the last Conservative party to stand on the brink of wresting public finance away from an economically illiterate Labour administration, the British Tories daren't make or even conceive the ideological case for reducing the size of the state today, let alone its expense. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Mario Cavolo - 29 October, 2009
When we half-jokingly talk about DaBoyz and how they are continually manipulating the markets, we sometimes lose sight of the fact that they really are out there, rigging the game so that they cannot lose. However, even as these Masters of the Universe maintain quasi-criminal control over the short- and intermediate-term swings, they understand as we do that there are larger, uncontrollable forces lurking in the form of black swans such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 28 October, 2009
While the rise in the $ price of gold has been sound, without being spectacular [the rise of late has only been around 10% over the average of the last 18 months], it has barely moved in many currencies. Full Story
Recently, Zero Hedge presented a snapshot analysis of the various securities that made up the triparty repo agreement involving JPM, Lehman and the Fed. We uncovered numerous bankrupt companies' equities that were being pledged as collateral for what ultimately was taxpayer exposure. To our surprise, this discovery is not an exception... Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 28 October, 2009
Most professionals, investors and the public still do not understand that we are facing a total breakdown of financial markets, which in turn will take down the economy as well, and will lead to a depression of five years or more. There are no solutions; the problem should have been attended to in 1990. After June of 2002, there was no turning back. The damage inflicted will take years to heal. Those who created the crisis, who are now supposedly trying to fix it, are playing for time. Full Story
Tech is the most vital industry in the United States, with the best opportunities to strike it rich if you know what to invest in. Just imagine finding the next Google and getting in while it’s still a startup… and the chances for that are quite good. Learn more about how to profit from technology... Full Story
America’s politicians are proposing “Cures” for health care at a rapid pace. Each “Cure” is immediately challenged by people and organizations from both ends of the political spectrum. One side says the cure is too expensive, the other side says the cure does not go far enough. All sides say we need more insurance. Full Story
Bottom line: "When money dies, so do people." Hyperinflation in a modern urban nation would kill people. I think it would kill a lot of people. Full Story
Summing up, the trend for the U.S. Dollar remains down, which is a positive factor for the precious metals market in the long run. However, from the short-term perspective, it seems that gold, silver, and corresponding equities need to take a breather to correct their post-$1,000-breakout rally. This is likely to correspond to a consolidation in the USD Index, which will probably take place at least for several more days. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 28 October, 2009
We’ve grown so used to forecasting with blandly mechanical detachment that it can be jolting when our instincts struggle to take over, as they did when Goldman Sachs shares dove without warning on October 15. Considering the firm’s stock chart by-the-numbers, we expected higher prices. Had the charts failed to warn us of an important top? Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 27 October, 2009
Even within the ranks of analysts who have some understanding of the problems caused by fiscal and monetary "stimulus", it is commonly held that an economic/financial crisis requires "liquidity injections" and government intervention in order to overcome the immediate obstacle. It is acknowledged that the 'assistance' provided by the government and the central bank will have negative consequences in the long run, but it is generally argued that the long-term negatives can be dealt with after the dust settles. Full Story
The U.S. banking system has many banks with large amounts of bad loans on their books. How do these bad loans affect the value of the dollar and gold? Specifically, how do they affect the Zero Discount Value (ZDV) of gold? Full Story
We come toward the end of another report that cannot tell you exactly when things are going to change, even as I remain confident that the dynamics of change are falling into place. The USD remains at the center of the show as a nation (and literally a world of assets) depend on its continued devaluation to keep the party going. Full Story
Money is primarily a medium of exchange or means of exchange. It is a way for a person to trade what he has for what he wants. Ideal money serves three critical functions: it acts as a medium of exchange; a store of value; and a means of economic calculation. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 27 October, 2009
With gold getting whacked hard yesterday, it was a time for sober reflection in the gold-obsessed Rick’s Picks chat room. A trader who goes by the handle “Padre” saw “the Jungian collective unconscious” at work. We would take a less kindly view, more Freudian, that saw only id and ego in a state of presumably gratuitous, conflict. Full Story
Call it what you want, the primary condition our condition is in is not inflation, or deflation, or even stagflation for that matter, although it’s much closer than the other two definitions in describing the macro. Why would the term stagflation better describe macro-conditions? Answer: Because the mature state of globalization that guarantees us a constant state of overproduction moving forward, which depresses prices, is being countered by monetary inflation, which has increased certain prices, but primarily only those under government influence, leaving the rest of the economy sluggish. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 26 October, 2009
Last week a new bill was introduced in the Senate to audit the Federal Reserve. Some backers of my bill HR1207 and the existing Senate companion bill S.604 were a little miffed at this, but depending on how you think about it, this new legislation poses no great threat to our efforts. Full Story
The dollar is at a crossroads and there are two probable scenarios. One is a final plunge following the recent grinding decline to an intermediate low that is followed by an intermediate reversal. The other is that it suddenly breaks out upside from the severe downtrend it has been stuck in since early March and rallies strongly, strongly because it is likely to be juiced by a sudden wave of panic short-covering. Full Story
And why do we need 4 or 5 more precious metals mining company indexes? Simply because those in use today do not tell the whole picture and what they do tell is large-cap centric. As the above table clearly identifies, while both the HUI and GDM (representing the large-cap companies) are up 42.1% and 37.8% respectively YTD, the micro/nano-cap gold and silver mining/developing/exploring and royalty companies, according to the Gold and Silver Companies Index (GSCI) are up 64.4% YTD. That is a 60% difference in performance! Full Story
Gold is now safely above the $1,000 mark, and there are two aspects to this, one good, one bad. The good aspect is that $1,000 is now a floor (whereas from March 2008 to Sept. 2009 it acted as a ceiling). The bad aspect is that we are now vulnerable t to a pull back to $1,000., and we need to be on guard for this possibility. Full Story
Our willingness to engage in risks drives our prosperity. We urgently need a public debate on risk, one driven by reason, not emotion. Without risk, individuals are bound to lose the purchasing power of their savings; corporations that don’t take risk will fade into oblivion; and governments that regulate away risks destroy the growth engine of their nation. Full Story
I received some great feedback this week that really got me thinking in a different direction other than analysis of gold, markets, economic news and gold stocks. I posted an article late last week titled Gold IS and this covered how I see gold as the only viable asset class and investment game in town. The feedback related to investor perceptions on the subject of gold investment. Full Story
The past week in gold, silver, oil, natural gas and the broad market wasn’t anything to write home about. We are seeing controlled profit taking which is making the market choppy. Many traders are getting very bearish on the market which is a good thing in my opinion. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 26 October, 2009
Although the Wall Street Journal’s classy copy desk deserves praise for adapting so quickly to the paper’s tabloid transformation under Rupert Murdoch, the headline writers appear to be struggling to find a balance between truth, sensationalism and, in this case, wishful thinking. Here’s the headline -- and see if you can spot the dereliction of syntax: “Microsoft Feeds Hopes for a Recovery”. Full Story
The gold topping activity continues with the price moving sideways while momentum keeps getting weaker and weaker. Something’s bound to break soon, will it be up or down? I hate to say it but at this point my money is on the down side, but will change fast should gold close above the $1075 mark. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & The Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host, Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discuss Superstar Investors & answer listener's questions. 2nd Hour: Peter Schiff, Michael J. Panzner, Bill Downey, and Robert Ian Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 25 October, 2009
For over more than 18 months we have watched the gold price churn below $1,000 and in the process forming three tops, before breaking out to above $1,050 in early October 2009. Why will it not fall back to well below $1,000 and possibly as far as $850 this time? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 25 October, 2009
The G-20 finance ministers meet in Scotland on November 6th and 7th, and they will all be bleating about the fall in the dollar. France started this week, and the others will follow. Their currencies are rising in value and they do not like it. Full Story
A fierce war of words has erupted in recent weeks between the two major camps in monetary circles. The first camp – the gold bulls/dollar bears – have been loudly voicing their twin belief that the gold price is poised to skyrocket while the dollar price is perched for a collapse. The other side – the gold bears/dollar bulls – are making the counter claim the gold price is setting up for a crash. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 25 October, 2009
The so called big news is that Amazon finally rallied to a new all time high. The experts making these claims should be viewed as the blind leading the deaf. Many would question our audacity to make such a statement and to those who do we have 3 simple words “Pay close attention”. Full Story
I remember well when gold rose from the measly price of $400 to above $700, the excitement was contagious. Then it rose from $700 to $1000 and the excitement was marginal. Now as we are at the beginning of the next major up-leg the excitement is moribund. The only excitement is from select institutional investors and central bankers, but even they are a rare breed and certainly not listened to by the masses, but they will. Full Story
So long as the Chinese renminbi is linked to the US dollar billionaire hedge fund manager George Soros says he does not see how the decline in the US dollar can go too far. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 25 October, 2009
What's a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation, look at some banking statistics that are not optimistic, and then I write a reply to my great friend Bill Bonner about why it's the best of times to be young. I think you will get a few thought-provoking ideas here and there. Full Story
By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor - 25 October, 2009
The Japanese markets have still not recovered after the real estate bubble which lasted from 1986-1990 despite having dropped interest rates to zero and throwing volumes of money at the problem. Look at the above chart, total Debt in 1990 was roughly 150 of GDP: today total debt is close to 290% and the market is still in a funk. Could this be what lies in store for the U.S? Full Story
An obvious response to the information that I have presented in the first eight parts of this series is this: "What should we do to reform the system?" This is a nice sentiment. It ignores the obvious: "we" have nothing to say about monetary reform. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and John Doody - 25 October, 2009
With all the 'strong dollar' rhetoric coming from the Fed and broken-record Bernanke, it's a wonder any investors are making money. But one we know and trust is. . .because he's not listening. "The U.S. will continue to take a laissez faire approach to the dollar," says John Doody, Economics Professor for nearly two decades and current author and publisher of Gold Stock Analyst. Full Story
Before getting into to the relationship between copper and pork products, I want to draw your attention to one paragraph from a commentary by Paul van Eeden that offers a contrarian, and undoubtedly unpopular view amongst the readership of the gold market: Full Story
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