By: Doug Hornig and Bud Conrad, The Casey Report - 30 January, 2009
These are uncharted waters, indeed. The shenanigans being foisted upon us by Washington are unprecedented at least since World War II, and probably ever. There is so much complexity, if not sheer trickery, going on that it becomes increasingly difficult to make any sense of what’s happening, much less what the net effect is going to be. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 30 January, 2009
On December 17th 2008 the combined gold holdings of the World Gold Council gold Exchange Traded Funds and Barclays Gold Trust stood at 985.59 tonnes. By the 16th January 2009 this had risen to 1009.92. By 30th January early in London time they had grown to 1079.83 a growth of almost 70 tonnes in two weeks. To give one perspective, the Central Bank Gold Agreement signatories [European central banks only] sold only 3.5 tonnes in the last two weeks. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 30 January, 2009
London, England There is no idea so absurd that the majority of people won’t come to believe it …when it suits them. We saw yesterday that the chattering classes are moving towards inflation. Rising prices are no longer seen as evil; they are good. Full Story
The most extraordinary thing is that the mainstream media has never attempted to compare the current economic environment to the one preceding the Great Depression. In essence, it is assumed outright that the Great Depression can never possibly happen again, ever, thus obviating the need for such a comparison. I actually believe that the macroeconomic fundamentals today are much worse, so that we are in for a protracted period of economic depression – a depression much worse than the Great Depression, a depression that would likely be remembered in history as “The Second Great Depression” or The Greater Depression, as Doug Casey has called it so aptly. Here is why I believe that this is the case. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 30 January, 2009
Not too long ago base metals were the hottest of commodities. In their bull markets the prices of these industrial-use metals had soared to lofty heights to reflect the speculative risk premiums brought on by greatly imbalanced markets. Copper, zinc, nickel, lead, and aluminum achieved staggering trough-to-peak gains of 574%, 523%, 1124%, 829%, and 151%! Full Story
The Declaration of Independence (1776) – even more so than the Constitution – expressed the underlying and beneficent mentality that allowed the creation of this once great republic, these United States of America. I say “once” with purpose and emphasis. Full Story
The hapless, or ‘bought’, depending on one’s perspective, U.S. Congress is about to give another gift (courtesy of U.S. Citizen-Taxpayers) to The Fed-led Cartel: virtually total control of the “entire” U.S. Financial System and Markets. As if The Cartel did not have enough power already. Full Story
A few interesting contrasts between life in China and life in the United States as I ramble from the Chinese Yuan to Fireworks to Freedom of the Press to Global Warming Full Story
Advanced life forms on other planets are reportedly rolling on the ground laughing at the willfully delusional condition of humanity today. In a state of complete denial as to the meaning and root causes of the rapid decline in civilization now underway, both are ignored and perpetuated. Full Story
A routine I have always kept to is listening to market news on the radio every morning. Recently it has felt as if the morning market news has morphed into the morning job losses report. It is no longer tracked on a monthly or weekly basis but rather the consortium of job cut announcements have been a routine part of the morning news. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 30 January, 2009
Throughout my association in the mining industry I have heard almost every story you can imagine. For instance, there is more gold in seawater than can be measured and some company is supposed to have some super technology that can extract it profitably. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 30 January, 2009
My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Jim Letourneau - 30 January, 2009
As a geologist and investor, Jim Letourneau, editor of Big Picture Speculator, has a unique perspective on the energy sector. An admitted optimist, he claims to be "short-term bullish, medium-term terrified and long-term bullish." In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Jim discusses the irregular flow of today's markets, where to drop anchor for some good short-term returns, and why he foresees a more sustainable balance in oil going forward. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 30 January, 2009
Thinking the right way, finding the right opportunities, and avoiding disastrous mistakes are keys to becoming a successful investor. If you keep these six mistakes in mind, you’re much likely to have a much better 2009 than a lot of others. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 30 January, 2009
I was halfway through a pitcher of cheap beer when I began to have visions. I thought that a pretty girl at the end of the bar was flirting with me, but that turned out to be wrong when I heard her tell the bartender that she thought I was “creepy.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 30 January, 2009
We weren’t trying to be unkind when we wrote here yesterday that Obama’s $825 billion stimulus plan didn’t have a prayer of succeeding. We wish our new President all possible success, really, but our good feelings stop short of believing that he can cure a credit bust with galactic new quantities of public borrowing. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 29 January, 2009
I'm not a "seller". I'm a "holder" right along with you, turning out my own silver inventory, and buying more the next day, as I've repeatedly explained, demonstrated, and proven. That's why I have new product now, and why I'm one of the few who can ship immediately. We have it, because we like to hold it! Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 29 January, 2009
London, England It’s coming dear reader. No doubt about it. The only questions are: When? How much? We’re talking about inflation. First a word of caution. Everything that MUST happen DOES happen. But it doesn’t always happen when and how you think it should. Full Story
What an interesting time we live in! By now, anyone who feels burned by the establishment, whether the Wall Street banksters (fraud kings) or USCongressional representatives (paid lobbyist clients), or USCongress banking committees (bribed Wall Street tools), or a private hedge fund conman (protected by regulators), or financial markets (victims of naked shorting), or an employer (from foreign plant & equipment investments), beware. More deception and betrayal and smokescreens and outright lies lie directly ahead. Full Story
Before becoming Governor of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke co-authored several text books familiar to college students studying economics. In one of these text books, Macroeconomics, the question of whether government budget deficits can lead to ongoing increases in the money supply is both asked and answered. And the answer is yes. Full Story
The last several months have been a nightmare for many investors in all markets of the world but perhaps no severe than those of us investors in the natural resource stocks. Frequently we would think it could not get worst only to realize that within another day or a week the natural resource stocks were still being pounded to the downside. Full Story
Last night the US passed its much anticipated $825 billion Obama stimulus package, representing another huge monetary expansion. Countries all around the world have been at it, and the volume of money in circulation is increasing at a record level. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 29 January, 2009
For a number of years people have wondered when sovereign nations will stop buying Agency and Treasury securities. As we have found out no one really has had that answer, nor does anyone currently have that answer. Full Story
Today we’ve got falling prices. Many pundits are saying that today’s falling prices are caused by deflation. Well whatever there caused by it’s hard to argue against gold being clearly the winning investment. With the price of gold hovering around $900 it’s definitely living up to its oft proven history of preserving purchasing power. Full Story
With volatile times like what we are in now, cash is a safe position to be in. Only when the stars align with a proper setup with risk under 3% for a trade will I take a stab at the markets. I don’t want to sound like a broken record but it seems like everyone is bullish on Gold & Oil right now and if that’s the case, almost everyone should be long, leaving only one way for it to go, down. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 29 January, 2009
There was a photo of Tim Geithner, the former Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York who is going to be the next Treasury Secretary of the USA, on the front page of the Financial Times last Thursday, and it is spooky in several ways. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 29 January, 2009
Our colleague Mish Shedlock did quite a hatchet job on hyperinflationist Peter Schiff the other day – much of it deserved, if the evidence that Mish presented is to be believed. The two have never seen eye to eye, since Mish, like us, is an unreconstructed deflationist. But his indictments against Schiff have less to do with the Inflation vs. Hyperinflation argument than with allegations that Schiff’s actual performance as an investment advisor has not been so stellar as one might have inferred from his high-profile exposure as a doomsdayer. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 28 January, 2009
Total turn around time: 30 days, give or take, and my goal is to work in all areas to speed up this process and remove the worst bottlenecks, which, at the moment, is the shipping time for the 1000 oz. bars. If anyone knows of a good supplier of 1000 oz. bars who can afford to pre-ship to LA, before the purchase, and provide 1000 oz. silver bars at or close to spot on the spot with no delivery charge, please let me know, and I'll buy from 3 to 5 tonnes of silver a month. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 28 January, 2009
Yesterday, the Dow rose 58 points. Oil held at $41. The euro at $1.31. And gold fell below $900. The yellow metal still looks good. It is at an all-time high in terms of the euro and the pound. But it still has a long way to go. Full Story
WHAT'S IN A NUMBER...? Ignoring the day-to-day noise, more than a handful of gold dealers and analysts reckon gold will hit $2,200 an ounce before this bull market is done. Why? Because that's the peak of 1980 revisited and re-priced in today's US dollars. Simple, right? Too simple by half, in fact. Full Story
By: Marin Katusa, Chief Strategist, Casey Research Energy Team - 28 January, 2009
One might think the United States would be charging hard on energy security as well as border and other kinds of security in its Global War on Terror campaign. Not so. For example, America imports some 12 million barrels of oil per day, yet maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) whose maximum is 727 million barrels (and its inventory is currently lower, 701 million barrels, because the government cut off shipments to it last year in an effort to modulate gasoline prices.) Full Story
My uncle, Bobby Schoon, grew up during the Great Depression. Born in the 1920s, the 1930s were to be far different than the previous decade. My uncle came of age when the US led the world into an economic abyss where human desperation and misery were to become commonplace, an abyss that is now about to be revisited. Full Story
I am all for muddling through. But, at this point, I don't see Conventional Creek on my copy of the map. The monetary base has been doubled. The only thing keeping banks from lending to the limit of their legal reserves is fear. If bankers are so afraid to lend, despite returns of one-tenth of 1%, we are not heading toward Conventional Creek. We are headed for the falls. Inflation Falls. Dollar falls. Gold rises. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 28 January, 2009
Always being on the lookout for inflation is part of The Mogambo Way (TMW), as there is nothing else that can destroy a society faster than a lot of angry people who cannot afford to buy food for themselves or their hungry children, and after awhile the incessant whining and crying of hungry babies gets on the nerves of the adults both in the room and for blocks around until, suddenly, one day, something just snaps and there is Hell To Pay (HTP). Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 28 January, 2009
The bar chart below, of the Dow Industrials, is about as packed with tedium as you could find over a two-week stretch. We’ve been projecting a bullish outcome, although for purely technical reasons and only for the very short-term. But with the economy hovering miles from a bottom, perhaps a little boredom on Wall Street is as much as we could hope for? Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 27 January, 2009
Yesterday, the Dow fell 38 points. But the real action is in the gold market – the price rose to $908 per ounce. Even the gold miners are finally going up. What does it mean? Is inflation closer than we thought? Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Brent Cook - 27 January, 2009
Geologist Brent Cook, editor of Exploration Insights newsletter, has earned a reputation for recognizing which juniors have the best chance of beating the odds and where rocks have the greatest potential for producing profit. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Brent shares some of his insight. Brent has examined properties in more than 60 countries and learned the investment side of the business from master Rick Rule. Full Story
By: Mike Hewitt and Dr. Krassimir Petrov - 27 January, 2009
In this essay we attempt to estimate global money supply and relate it to global supply of gold. For the global money supply, we use money supply figures for currency in circulation from 86 selected currencies, from 81 independent countries and five monetary unions. For the global supply of gold, we use data from the World Gold Council (WGC). Finally, we attempt to interpret the price of gold as a relationship between global money supply and global gold supply. Full Story
We are fortunate to be living in these times, for we are seeing the unfolding of events long explained and predicted by the Austrian tradition. Maybe that sounds implausible. What is fortunate about our times? The economy is tanking, stocks have been pummeled, unemployment is rising, and Washington is pursuing the worst combination of economic policies since Hoover and FDR. Nor does the new guy in charge seem to have a clue about the limits of what government can do. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 27 January, 2009
“China is manipulating its currency,” proclaims incoming Treasury Secretary Geithner. Talking about “manipulation” is helpful only if one’s intent is to impress a local and insult a foreign audience. More productive may be plain talk - the U.S. and China could issue a joint statement along the lines of: “China and the U.S. agree that both will act in their respective self-interest in setting exchange rate policy.” Full Story
Like the others, it appears what was formerly reliable sentiment related analysis associated with the study of open interest put / call ratios has now succumb to an increasingly mature market(s) condition. Of course, technically, such a conclusion could be viewed as incorrect in that the reason stocks did not go up this week was not because of selling, but because of a buyers strike. Full Story
Value at risk (VaR) financial models are the latest game being played by those on Wall Street who profess to manage risk, a troubling trend detailed superbly by Joe Nocera in a January 2nd New York Times Magazine article, They give bankers a false sense of confidence in their risk control while, in reality, they increase the level of risk for society as a whole. Full Story
In order to examine similar effects on the premium of 1 ounce silver american eagle bullion coins I used the same method and analyzed silver eagles sold on eBay from early March 2008 until today and had some interesting results. After painstakingly cleaning up the data to remove items of primarily numismatic value - such as graded and proof coins - a massive 249′317 sold ounces (data available upon request) yielded the following picture and speaks volumes in regards to what kind of premiums buyers are willing to pay for real silver: Full Story
I want everyone to relax. You are being bombarded with numerous facts and figures that look pretty bad, but the facts are being interpreted with emotion and hype and hysteria. The predictive value of mis-emotion is usually chaos. There will be no Great Depression. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 27 January, 2009
One of our themes over the years has been that monetary factors are driving the major trends in the financial markets. To put it another way, we have tended to downplay the effects on market prices of non-monetary drivers such as the expansion of the internet, the industrialisation of China, and "Peak Oil". Full Story
Just a few days into the administration and we are already starting to see cracks in the walls. Rumors have been surfacing Obama’s much heralded stimulus package will not pass in congress as many republicans, including John McCain promise to be “faithful opposition party members.” The opposition is unfortunately not against the spending but rather, against not enough spending. Full Story
Following our previous interview in August, Kress was kind enough grant me another interview concerning his cycle work and investment/economic outlook for the U.S. in the foreseeable future. He also shared his longer-term outlook for gold and commodities. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 27 January, 2009
As we looked at in last Thursday’s Prosperity Dispatch, there’s opportunity in every downturn. There will be winners and losers. The winners will have greater market share. There’s just going to be a lot fewer winners. It has always been the survival of the fittest in the business world. Economic downturns just speed up the process - it’s Accelerated Darwinism. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 27 January, 2009
To succeed with investing, your investments MUST outpace inflation in the long run. Silver is poised to do that, and more, as it historically outperforms gold during bull markets in the precious metals. The bull market in silver has just begun. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 27 January, 2009
Silver continues to lag behind gold as the two metals in general struggle against this deflationary setting. Gold has benefitted from some of the fears regarding the stability of the credit and banking system but not enough to propel it to new highs. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 27 January, 2009
The word 'Gaaaahhh!' escapes my throat, as all of this was BEFORE all the new promises of massive new deficit spending! Trillions of dollars of federal deficit spending per year, for years and years and years into the future! Again, 'Gaaaahhh!' Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 26 January, 2009
-Politicians take the spotlight…the auto parts sector needs a bailout too… -Leverage is a two-way street…will Obama's plan get the economy going again? -No magic will make this mountain of debt disappear…gold got a boost on Friday…a memo to Microsoft employees…and more! Full Story
Reuters has released their Reuters Precious Metals Poll 2009 in which Gold and Silver Investments Limited has taken part. The survey of 56 precious metals analysts, traders and banks was carried out over the last three weeks. The Reuters poll finds that “gold prices are expected to hold firm this year as investors, looking for safety away from the mayhem in financial markets, pile into the precious metal used as a store of value.” The poll found however that “industrial precious metals prices will behave differently this year, reliant as they are on real economy demand.” Full Story
I agree that the CFTC is between a rock and a hard place. There is a crime in progress which they wish they didn’t have to confront. But the law states that they must. Besides, this is a dilemma of their own making. By ignoring the clear facts of manipulation for so many years, they have created a monster that will not be resolved easily or without disorderly pricing. Full Story
There is a determined grassroots movement in the United States seeking the restoration of sound money. There are many different groups comprising this movement, but all share the same aim. It is to restore gold and silver to its rightful role as the money of the United States, as mandated by the Constitution. Full Story
By: David N. Vaughn, Gold Letter, Inc. - 26 January, 2009
Considerable inflation is coming. Washington has yet to learn who the real enemy will ultimately be…inflation. This is why gold will continue to hold its own and have a future. Gold bullishness is coming. Inflation will raise its ugly head again to parallel the double digit inflation of the 1970s. We are indeed living in interesting times. Full Story
Happy day, gold bugs. Gold broke out on Friday, and the February contract briefly touched $900. Agnico Eagle Mines broke out, and many of the better golds are developing volume, suggesting a breakout to come this week. But the really important technical action can be seen if we step back from the chart a bit. Full Story
Timothy Geithner’s first major fumble as incoming Treasury Secretary could be a big one. Accusing your number one creditor of tampering with their currency in a very public way is downright dumb. Especially when the country you’re making accusations from is the most notorious manipulator of currencies, commodities, derivatives and precious metals in the history of humanity. Full Story
So, you want to know how bad this crash will get. Fine. Spend 30 seconds to see the magnitude of what it is today. It's going to get much worse. The Manchester Guardian published 13 photos from around the world that show the extent of the disaster. Spend just 3 seconds per photo. (You won't see these on Tout TV.) Full Story
Gold is now in position to break out to new dollar highs and embark on a very powerful run. It is not its action on Friday which gives rise to this positive view, although that was certainly impressive enough, but the extremely bearish action in the dollar last week, which suggests that it is on the verge of a breakdown and savage decline. Full Story
The title of this segment is meant as a demand upon the conventional herd more than a descriptor of anything likely to happen as a result of the Obama presidency or Wall Street having learned its lesson in the wake of a systemic financial meltdown. The title of this segment is meant to implore a few more people to consider the degree to which everything has changed, not since the deflation impulse became readily apparent in October 2008, but since secular forces began to cycle in very early in the decade. Full Story
By: Larry LaBorde, Silver Trading Company - 26 January, 2009
It seems that many “investment professionals” would have you believe that there are only two investment classes, namely stocks and bonds. They talk endlessly about the mix of the two. That you should be heavier into stocks when you are young and heavier into bonds as you get older. Lately some are advising on moving more of your money out of “risky” stocks into the “safety” of bonds. Full Story
Last week the broad market slide lower on heavy volume as the DOW tries to hold the 8000 level. If this support level is broken then we could see another leg lower with the DOW sliding down to the 6500 level. The reason I am mentioning this is because gold surged higher on Friday with big volume as traders start to anticipate this drop as well as the drop in the USD which is currently at a short term resistance level. Full Story
Our consumer society didn’t just happen, it was planned. Not in 1910, or 1954, but in the year 1832, the year William Huntington Russell and fellow classmate Alphonso Taft at Yale University founded the Skull and Bones society, a branch of the Bavarian Illuminati. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 26 January, 2009
Comex Gold exploded on Friday for its best single-day gain in months, leaping halfway to a $952.30 rally target we’d disseminated to subscribers the night before. We narrowly missed getting aboard at the overnight low when the March futures dipped fractionally beneath our 852.90 stop-loss just before taking off. Full Story
Gold rose a nice 6.88% on the week with 4.53% coming in on Friday. The $880 area that was presenting so much resistance for so long was broken convincingly but a retest is a real possibility that I am expecting. $925 to $930 is where the upside resistance is now and I think we should see a bit of a ranging trade between support and resistance now while gold builds up some more momentum, but with the news coming as I mentioned above you just never know. There will be a trending move up in the near future taking gold to all time highs once again. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions. 2nd Hour: -Keith Neumeyer, CEO, First Majestic Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 25 January, 2009
We are not going to belabor this point but it is deadly important. Private equity investors and professionals are pulling their money out of banks. A professional run on banks has begun. If you have CDs or funds in banks that exceed six months of operating expenses remove them immediately. Your alternative is gold and silver related assets or Swiss franc Treasuries. If you need help email me or call 1-800-375-4188. Full Story
With gold prices back above $900 and silver at $12 an ounce, gold producers have reason to be cheerful about the outlook as a flight from all paper currencies to one of fixed supply gathers pace. However, gold and silver mining is an energy intensive business, with up to 25 per cent of costs going on fuel. Thus falling energy costs will feed straight through to the bottom line for gold and silver producers this year. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 25 January, 2009
In this case, the debts of greedy pigs are being cancelled by the government giving them their money back by buying worthless assets, a scam wherein we define the term 'greedy pigs' as 'all of us.' Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 25 January, 2009
The next leg in the Stem Cell Gold Rush starts today. I wouldn’t run out on Monday and buy everything stem cell related though (I’ll explain why this run-up probably won’t last in a moment). There will be big ups and downs. And the window of time is still fairly wide open. But now is the time to start figuring everything out and to develop a plan. Full Story
Since making its low last October gold has been making higher highs and higher lows. Friday took gold into new high territory since that October low point. It still has some hurdles to go through but let’s see where this takes us. Full Story
Gold was up $40.82 for the week, to close at $899.62 for a +4.75% gain. Perhaps more impressive than what gold did is what it didn’t do. Earlier in the week the dollar rallied, yet gold held its ground. It had every excuse to go down, but it didn’t. This was good market action that foretold of the move to come. Full Story
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