It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast. Full Story
The lofty US stock markets remain riddled with euphoria and complacency, fueled by an exceptional bull. Investors believe downside risks are trivial, despite long years of epic central-bank easing catapulting valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes. This has left today’s markets hyper-risky, with a massive bear looming as the Fed and ECB increasingly slow and reverse their easy-money policies. Caveat emptor! Full Story
First I said I believed the US stock market would plunge in January, but I also said that January would not be the biggest drop, but just the first plunge that begins a global economic collapse: the big trouble for the economy and the stock market, I said, would show up in “early summer.” That’s when the stock market crash that began in January would take its second big leg down, and global economic cracks would become big enough that few could deny them. Full Story
Head of The Morgan Report, David Morgan rejoins the show with comments on the PMs sector noting that gold remains a "free lunch" diversification asset. "The most negatively correlated asset to the US stock market is gold." The new trade war resembles the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which ultimately lead to losses in US jobs and exports abroad. Full Story
As of this writing the Bitcoin is quoted at about $6,100 dollars, and so supposed to be worth almost 5 ounces of gold. Sometime in the near future, I expect one of the dozen largest holders of Bitcoin balances is going to want to reduce his holdings. That is going to be something to watch, because suddenly, everybody will seem to want to reduce their own holdings, and that's "Sayonara" for Bitcoin and its fellows. Full Story
The article titled “Silver’s Critical Role In Electrification May Fuel Its Rise” contains some interesting comments about the silver market, but with one minor exception the information presented in this article has no bearing on silver’s risk/reward as a speculation or investment. The minor exception is the high (by historical standards) gold/silver ratio, which suggests that the silver price is likely to rise relative to the gold price over the next few years. However, none of the information about silver ‘fundamentals’ presented in the article is relevant to the silver price. Full Story
In the latest edition of the Market Overview, we have analyzed the risk related to the rising U.S. public debt and private leverage. This month, we will adopt a more global perspective. Until recently, thanks to the synchronized worldwide growth, it was easy to lose sight of the elephant in the room. But as U.S. interest rates have climbed in recent months and dollar has appreciated, we cannot ignore the debt threat any longer. Full Story
All in all, I do not have an overly bearish feeling about gold and its miners at this time. In fact, I don’t have a bearish feeling at all, even though traditional sector indicators like HUI/Gold and Silver/Gold have sagged over the last few days. That is because with the gold sector you think about being brave when the blood is flowing, not when the inflationary gold bug touts are leading the charge. Full Story
This index bottomed in March and since then the miners have moved ahead of gold bullion. The first hurdle, at the 50DMA (blue line) was overcome in April. The next hurdle, at the 200DMA (red line), took several months, but it is now in the process of being ‘put in the rear view mirror’. The blue arrow points to the fact that for the past three days the daily range has been above the resistance. The supporting indicators (top and bottom of chart), are positive. A rise above the green arrow will convince a lot of investors that the gold sector is ‘the place to be’. The timing is likely to coincide with the resumption of trading, after the US July 4th Independence Day Holiday. Full Story
The economy has hit a wall and is now sliding down it. I don’t care what bullish propaganda may or may not be bubbling up in the headlines from the financial media and Wall Street, the hard numbers I look at everyday show accelerating economic weakness. The fact that my view is contrary to mainstream consensus and political propaganda reinforces my conviction that my view about the economy is correct. Full Story
The history of crude oil shows prices are erratic. Wars, news, shortages, surpluses, recessions and other factors boost or suppress short-term prices. But in the long term, crude oil prices rise because our economic system—government deficit spending, fractional reserve banking and central banks—devalue fiat currencies and cause commodity prices to rise, along with stocks, gold, salaries, political payoffs, cigarettes and the cost of wars. Full Story
After the “Second World War” and the formation of World Trade Organization (WTO), the USA has used the phrase “Trade Sanctions” for nations to do everything which it wants. “Trade Sanctions” is basically a nation not able to buy or sell in the global market. Only the USA and Russia can survive by being a closed economy. The rest of the countries cannot live in a closed economy system. Full Story
The recent Alchemist includes an interesting article about hedging. Should mining companies hedge their gold production? Or should we use gold as hedge? Of course, we should. But against what? The WGC argues that the yellow metal is a hedge against emerging market risk. Is it true? Full Story
Titan of Wall Street, Ralph Acampora of Altaira Wealth Management, "Professor of TA," and co-creator of the (CTA) designation, returns. "Be careful, be selective ... keep close stops on most US shares." The financial sector tends to lead the market, which is a bad omen for bulls as many financial stocks continue to underperform. Full Story
For the reasons we've discussed over the past several years, the U.S. yield curve continues to flatten, with Wednesday seeing new, 11-year low spreads. As you know by now, this has significant long-term implications. Let's start with the latest update. Below are snapshots of the current yields for the 2-year note and the 10-year note. Full Story
If there were any doubts that the Chinese stockmarket had entered a bearmarket, these were dispelled by the breach of key support at 3000 and plunge last week, which we can see to advantage on the 6-month chart for the Shanghai Composite index shown below. A tentative downtrend channel is drawn on this chart, but it is important to note that this drop could rapidly gather momentum and get a lot steeper now that the key 3000 level has been breached, making the channel shown obsolete, for reasons that become clear on the 5-year chart. Full Story
We’re about nine years into the economic recovery following the Great Recession. It’s been an extraordinarily profitable period for the stock market—one of the best in U.S. history—and I hope you’ve participated. But every bull market ends with a bear market, and while no one knows for sure when that will be, it’s probably safe to assume we’re in the final stretch. Full Story
Not only did bitcoin break $7075 but plummeted a further 18% to $5770, while ethereum dropped only 14%. While this may seem like splitting hairs, this with the relative outperformance in ethereum since April is significant in my world. Ethereum is a higher beta asset than bitcoin. This means it normally moves farther in both directions. But not this time. Full Story
A gold bond is debt obligation that is denominated in gold, with interest and principal paid in gold. As I will explain below, it’s a way for the issuer to pay off its debt in full, and there are other advantages. Sometimes, I find that it’s helpful to show a picture of what I’m talking about. At the Harvard Club in New York, an old gold bond is hanging on the wall among other memorabilia. Full Story
We do not focus too much on the US dollar because in the big picture Gold usually leads movements in the dollar. As it pertains to the present, Gold’s failure to breakout (while the dollar made two new lows since the summer 2016 peak in Gold) implies that the dollar, at worst is not going much lower anytime soon. At best, it could signal that the dollar’s bull market will resume. With that said, the dollar is approaching an interesting juncture and how it performs will certainly have some impact on the precious metals sector moving forward. Full Story
Summing up, gold and silver reached our downside targets very close to several reversal dates and it was accompanied by quite a few bullish confirmations, which makes the current short-term outlook quite bullish, but not extremely so. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, but based on the above, it’s tempting to enter into a counter-trend long position in the precious metals market right now. Full Story
Being huge, consequential and technologically advanced, China isn’t normally lumped into the “emerging” category with Brazil and Argentina. To most observers they’ve already left the kids table and are now seated with the developed-world adults. But that might be premature. A big part of China’s economic ascendance was purchased with borrowed money – including a lot of US dollars – and came at the perceived expense of US well-being. And the US now wants to redress what it sees as unfair terms of trade in the most abrupt way possible. Full Story
I don’t like to spend a lot of time in the grocery store but I love the price sales, and gold’s superb seasonal price sale continues in orderly fashion. Astute investors are now calmly booking fabulous gold and silver put option profits, and filling their “grocery carts” with modest amounts of quality mining stocks. Full Story
In simplest terms, the main context to understand here is that the market was in an extreme oversold manner as noted by our proprietary signals, so traders had to be cautious of a V-shape bounce possibility to reset the pressure if support held. Also, we had a high probability scenario imposed on our 4-hour white line projection that we drew and the market managed to follow it perfectly for the rest of the day by making a nominal lower low at 2700.5 before closing off with a little stick-save in the 2720's region. Full Story
Do you have enough of constant fluctuations, changes in the short-term trends? Are you tired of checking the gold prices all the time? Good, so let’s rest from the daily hustle and bustle and focus today on what will be in thirty years. Full Story
One of the more interesting developments in the gold mining sector at the moment is the impending launch of an investor alliance called the Shareholders Gold Council (SGC) whose objectives focus on reversing the poor shareholder returns and underperformance that has been dogging the sector’s leading gold mining stocks for some time now. Full Story
As U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong and China fell 25% in the first four months of the year, London picked up the slack. According to the USGS, U.S. gold exports to London surged more than doubled from January to April, compared to the same period last year. Interestingly, the amount of gold exported to London during this period nearly equaled the total U.S. domestic gold mine supply. Full Story
Before being defeated today by Uruguay at the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Russia surprised experts and fans alike. Expectations were low at best. Because of recent setbacks, including a disastrous performance at the 2016 UEFA European Championship and injuries sustained by key players, the federation ranked a dismal 66th place among Fédération Internationale de Football Association teams—its lowest position ever. Full Story
In a nutshell, what we have in place now for the precious metals is a perfect storm of oversold technicals, compelling fundamentals, geopolitical drivers, and absolutely abysmal sentiment going into the month of July, which typically marks the onset of the positive gold-silver seasonality period that extends through to November. There is also one other condition that is overwhelmingly bullish and it is that the precious metals are the unequivocal recipients of a MASSIVE serving of total and abject investor APATHY. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on mixed signals. The cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
No, the Trump tax breaks for major corporations are not going to bonuses and wage increases. Sure we’ve seen some token $1,000 bonuses go out to laborers with hyuge orchestrated fanfare. The stint of articles you saw all over the media earlier in the year about those bonuses originated from an organized PR campaign run by a conservative tax group, and have mostly now ended. Full Story
The sound money movement reemerged on the national political scene a decade ago. In 2008, the financial crisis brought in a fresh wave of U.S. gold and silver investors. Ron Paul and the Tea Party advocated for limiting government and ending the Federal Reserve system. Sound money advocates made real inroads in recruiting Americans to their cause based on evidence that the nation is headed for bankruptcy. Full Story
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. President Trump has made a virtue out of the first two, including repeating them, some of them ad nauseum. He also throws around statistics that make absolutely no sense. His best and biggest in the trade wars with Canada and others is his claim that the U.S. has a $100 billion trade deficit with Canada. The Washington Post, in its Fact Checker column, allotted four Pinocchios to that whopper, the highest honour possible. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, down 0.68 percent. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in May for a second month due to a lack of inventory and higher asking prices. Data shows that the median sale price increase 4.9 percent year-over-year to a record of $264,800. Full Story
This past week I have emphasized that the stock market is in a state of high risk. This is because valuations are sky high in all asset classes and I see the elements of a broad top in the market which will likely prove to be the end of this 9 year bull market. That’s not saying the market falls hard anytime soon, but the process of a top has begun and is ongoing. Stated differently, we are likely in Phase I of a bear market and once Phase II arrives it may prove to be devastating and adversely impact an entire nation of investors. Full Story
Imagine a country in which banks hold virtually no cash at all. A country where if you walk into a bank branch, the clerk won’t be able to help you make a deposit. A country where there’s a good chance that if you grabbed a wad of cash and walked into an electronics store or a major nightclub, they wouldn’t be able to assist you in buying a new computer, nor get your drink on. Full Story
Last week, we discussed Social Security, a Ponzi scheme that is inevitably approaching its default. That leads us to another point in our broader discussion of capital destruction. Let’s illustrate with an example. Full Story
• Robert Kiyoaski, America's 'Rich Dad' returns to the show, author of Second Chance: for Your Money, Your Life and Our World (2015). • The Rich Dad book series author expects the US shares rally to pause; he's accumulating a cash position to invest in safe haven assets. • Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company and Pete Speaks returns with commentary on the US stock market and the PMs sector. • Our guest sees a new "Cold Trade-War" that includes threats against China of $200 billion in new tariffs, our largest trading partner. Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD. Full Story
Gold’s failure to take off like a rocket when conditions become this favorable has been a puzzle for its fans. One explanation that has gained a lot of, ahem, currency is that it’s been replaced of late as the world’s safe haven asset by cryptocurrencies, bitcoin in particular. Bitcoin’s price action in 2017 appears to support this thesis. While gold was treading water, the capital markets may indeed have responded to the newly-inflationary environment. They just chose to hide out in cryptos rather than precious metals. Full Story
As a former spot currency trader for a major international bank, I have had first-hand experience of central banks directly intervening in currency markets in massive size, repeatedly. You’ll hear a lot of people say market manipulation is a conspiracy theory, despite the fact that it has been proven in court several times in various assets classes and especially in precious metals. Books have been written about Gold and Silver manipulation for decades. Full Story
Last year, a World Economic Forum study looked at six developed countries (the US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada) and two emerging markets (China and India) and found a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall by 2050. That’s how much more is needed to ensure everyone of retirement age will receive 70% of their working income, including government, employer, and personal savings—but mostly government. Full Story
A week ago Friday, the metals got clocked hard. It was a drive-by “paper gold” shooting on the Comex which took place after most of the rest of the world had gone home for the weekend. On Monday, the Hulbert Gold Stock Newsletter Index fell to zero. On Tuesday it dropped to negative 2.7. The HGNSI is an index that measures newsletters which make trading recommendations on mining stocks. A negative reading means, overall, the newsletters are net short in terms of position recommendations. Zero and negative readings are typically highly correlated with bottoms. Full Story
After another negative press release this morning, the major cryptocurrencies fell towards crucial support levels. According to a Zerohedge article, quoting CNBC, Japan’s chief regulator launched a probe of crypto-exchanges, prompting the largest to halt new account creation, thus sending the crypto market considerably lower. Full Story
The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection. Full Story
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