By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 29 June, 2007
A look at a seasonal chart for silver suggests June to September are weaker months for the price of silver. We also note that the previous breakouts for silver (see chart) occurred towards the end of the year. We already mentioned September for the $15 run up, but the $8.50 run up started in early October 2003. So far our analysis suggests an autumn breakout for silver. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 29 June, 2007
-Depending on a fulsome supply of greater fools...benign markets turn wicked... -Overly confident investors are headed for disaster...private equity bought and sold by morons... -Safeguarding the benefit of tax breaks...it's a fat world after all...and more! Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 29 June, 2007
There is no denying the fact that we are in a long-term secular bull market for nearly all commodities. And the transformation our global economy is undergoing is unparalleled to anything we’ve seen in modern history. An economic supercycle has emerged in which a vortex of demand is sucking in commodities with relentless fury. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 29 June, 2007
The classic question has to be asked again, what is the price of gold? If we answer $xxx, then we have to ask the next question, what is the price of a $? Is the $ so reliable a store of value that it can be used as a measure of gold? This questions the very foundation of the paper currency system. Can one trust the $ or even the international monetary system? It’s all a question of degree. Full Story
When the contagion (denied no longer) is systemic, pervasive, broad, multi-faceted, and ominous in its lethal potential, perhaps one can calmly conclude that the system is merely adjusting to a total change in the seas. NO WAY!!! Without much doubt whatsoever, Bear Stearns is GROUND ZERO for the bond market firestorm. BS was forced to extend $3.2 billion in loans to its hedge fund clients, who attempted to liquidate but could not. That represents 25% of the BS entire capital. Don’t worry. Both hedge funds will eventually die, but when they do, BS will possibly die with them. Full Story
Governments will seek to issue increasing amounts of money until the currency collapses at which time the public is given a whole host of explanations - corporate greed, foreigners, market manipulation, terrorism, ad nauseum. What is most ironic about this farce is that the Central Banks are portrayed as being inflation fighters. This makes about as much sense as me lighting your house on fire and than showing up with the fire brigade as a “firefighter”. Full Story
Gold bells are ringing again. Its time to cover shorts and go long. The COT report due out Friday is expected to be very bullish. Silver is suffering from ‘chart damage’ that occurred on Wednesday, but silver will be pulled along by strength in gold. Oil is supported by the massing of sea power in the Persian Gulf (currently three carrier forces, with a fourth on the way). Full Story
CNBC’s breathless coverage of the iPhone debut reminds me of the fawning treatment they gave Krispy Kreme a few years back when the ill-fated donut vendor went public. I can recall Joe Kernen in particular effusing over the company’s supposedly limitless prospects as though KK were selling a cheap cure for cancer. More like a cure for fitness. In retrospect, we wonder how Kernen and just about every other analyst failed to foresee that a donut chain’s success would not long endure in this diet-obsessed land of ours. Full Story
-Seduced by financial aphrodisiacs…dim rock singers now own private equity… -We're not alone in touting credit bubble dangers…not quite time to abandon gold… -People who love inflation, and why…a world traveler offers investment advice…and more! Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 28 June, 2007
The meltdown in the subprime mortgage market is inexorably spreading throughout the U.S. economy. The first shoe dropped in February, when scores of mortgage originators went bust amid rising defaults and tightening lending standards. Last week, the second shoe dropped as two CDO-focused Bear Stearns hedge funds blew up. Full Story
There are just an overwhelming amount of bullish factors for gold and silver that are still cleverly being camouflaged so that the fewest possible can see them. From this point forward; remember the words of former Fed Chairman Paul Volker from the 1970’s, “the one mistake that I made was in not capping the gold price.” Do not forget that statement because they did not forget this time and that has created the most incredible investment opportunity for those that see through it that has ever existed. Full Story
The past few days of trading in gold and silver are a great example of why we continually stress the importance of keeping the big picture in perspective. It is difficult not to become emotional when dramatic one day drops catch even the most seasoned investors off guard. Full Story
You're at a unique crossroads. We've had almost four years of relative calm in the financial markets. Corporate earnings have rebounded from their lows in 2003 and the depths of the 2000 - 2001 stock market collapse. There have been no terror attacks on U.S. soil. Interest rates have remained artificially low. But now, even as foreign economies continue to gather strength, the U.S. economy's second breath — as I call it — is ending. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 28 June, 2007
Then, abruptly out of ammo, with clouds of burnt cordite tingeing the air, the tragic Mogambo falls slowly to his knees, his Mighty Mogambo Head (MMH) hanging. He is beaten, destroyed. Full Story
Wallace, Idaho – Delivered on our front porch yesterday morning was a baleful reminder that it was 40 years ago this week, Great Society's creator, President Lyndon Baines Johnson, signed legislation finally and forever ending this sad Republic's government's 200-year policy of (more or less) keeping its promises. Full Story
By: Puru Saxena & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 27 June, 2007
-"Global warming" gives way to "global climate change"…the acts of a malevolent market… -Nature may be cruel, but she's not perverse…China rides the bull for more than eight seconds… -A black day for Blackstone…the world's richest third world country…and more! Full Story
In cased you missed it gold is coming down lately. Today (June 26) it fell by another $10 and touched its 200 dma for the first time since early 2007. Sure enough bearish sentiment has been propelled to new extremes as a result of this sudden drop and spooked out many investors out of their gold positions. Time to worry? No! Why not? Full Story
"Gold's only real use is as money, so why not? Okay, gold's not used as a means of payment today, but it's still a fantastic way of locking up wealth for the future. That's why people keep digging it out of the ground after 3,000 years. That's why Indian farmers swap the Rupees they earn for metal each week. It's not just a social convention or ancient tradition. Gold makes a great store of value." Full Story
We need to take a cold, hard look at our un-backed currency and seriously consider exchanging these ridiculous green pieces of paper with which we are paid (and which the Fed continues to recklessly pump out at a record pace), for goods that retain their value over time. We need, in other words, to exchange our paper for the scarce and irreproducible goods that have been used as currencies since the dawn of civilization; namely, gold and silver. Full Story
Investors around the world are watching these financial shenanigans, and are selling dollar. Dollar is rolling over, as shown in chart, moving on to a path for a new low. Waning confidence in hedge fund management will exacerbate the situation. British pound at $2 says a lot about confidence U.S.$. Downward slide for dollar means intrinsic value of $Gold is rising. Tuesday, NYC funds pushed up U.S. stock market and sold off Gold and Silver in a sure sign of emotional and financial denial. Full Story
Now two months on, Gold did make the high just shy of $700 at $698, since which gold has followed a shallow trend lower. Even though Gold broke the major uptrend line in mid May 07, the trend to date continues to be of a corrective nature. Which means that despite being in an immediate downtrend, the long-term gold bull market remains intact. Now gold bulls should NOT take that statement to imply its safe to buy gold today, as you do not buy a falling market! Full Story
With this article, I hope that I have clarified that Ron Paul does not wish to go back to a flawed gold standard. Next time, I’ll have more information on what a new gold-backed system might look like, but for now, put to rest the idea that we’ll all be carrying around pocketfuls of heavy gold coins! With our increased understanding and advanced computer & network technology, there is no reason to think that a 100% pure gold standard is infeasible. Full Story
You’d be correct in suspecting that the easy money in gold shares has already been made. It has. But it would be financial folly of the highest order to assume that it’s too late to make the big money. The big money is still on the table. Full Story
Comex Gold has been moving with near-absolute fidelity to our Hidden Pivot targets lately, so there is little reason for subscribers to agonize over where the “Auggies” may be headed next. The answer, unfortunately but obviously, is lower. But the good news is that this particular phase of gold’s decline has the potential not only to engender a low that can be bottom-fished aggressively with a micro-tight stop-loss, but also to carve out an intermediate-term bottom. Full Story
My prime focus is to analyze on a fundamental supply/demand basis for the long term, supplemented by studying the market structure, as defined by the Commitment of Traders Report (COT), for shorter-term price movements. The long term is simple – silver has never looked better as a long-term investment based upon real supply and demand. Increasingly, the $13 price level in silver is looking like the $5 level used to look. Full Story
-The problem with selling private equity to the public…a selling investor turns buyers into chumps… -Falling U.S. dollar still not quite Zimbabwe-like…complaining about the architecture… -The high value of quality and convenience…expounding on drab exteriors…and more! Full Story
The gold sector and its ETFs are on a buy signal. However, conditions to buy were not met and we will stay in cash until a low risk set up. To enter the market, we need signals, set ups, and stops. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 26 June, 2007
Since 2001 the real gold price has risen steadily, but the bull market has not been particularly impressive to date. Our thinking is that the really impressive phase of gold's bull market -- the phase where the sheer magnitude of the price rise forces everyone to sit up and take notice -- won't begin until the early years of the next decade. We do, though, expect to see significant additional gains over the remainder of this decade. Full Story
We have recently maintained a neutral/bearish stance on gold, which was not unreasonable given the way the earlier advance had petered out and been followed by weakness resulting in the failure of a long-term uptrend line that signaled a change of intermediate trend from up to neutral/down. However, the subsequent lack of downside follow through to break the price below key support at and above its long-term 200 and 200-day moving averages, combined with emerging evidence of significant accumulation of large Precious Metals stocks has justified a review and a shift in stance to neutral/bullish. Full Story
The silver chart looks “uglier” than the gold chart right now, and with the price rounding over beneath a “Distribution Dome”, a series of lower highs and a trendline break, the downside risk is as obvious as the Marquis de Sade’s nose. However, as with gold it is holding up thus far at a point very close to its long-term moving averages, and there are signs of accumulation in various larger stocks. So it could nevertheless break out upside. Full Story
Last week the financial world was awoken by the harsh reality that hey, maybe these mortgages are not going to perform as originally planned. Maybe the risk of default is a lot higher than originally thought GULP! Bear Sterns announced a $3.2Bn ‘loan’ to bail out two of its troubled hedge funds doing exactly what I detailed above. Full Story
The pundit’s disquieting forecasts ring hollow somehow. Having been intuitively obvious for so long, the unfolding of current events warrants action not alarm. But there are a growing number of mavens that understand the applicability of Austrian economic theory in making sense of what has here-to-fore been a neo-Keynesian conundrum. Full Story
Since the beginning of the change of tendency of the ounce of silver, the price of the silver knew two big regular waves of increase. Today, the price of the ounce of silver seems to build the third wave with the same characteristics as both of the previous ones. The objective of this technical analysis is to know the timing and the objectives of this third wave of increase of the price of the ounce of silver. Full Story
For a few hours on Monday it looked as though the Dow Industrials were on their way to headline gains. Up 130 points in the early going, the blue-chip average appeared unstoppable, even when crude oil quotes began creeping back up toward the $70 level around mid-session. But that was before nervousness over the mounting debacle in subprime mortgages supposedly overtook investors, causing stock-market gains to evaporate faster than dew on cactus. Full Story
By: The Mogambo Guru & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 25 June, 2007
-Kisses that end with bubble pops...not invited to your neighbor’s wild financial party... -The lunatic phases of a classic inflationary cycle...Zimbabweans as rich as Midas... -Reforms aren’t always easy to come by...very slowly getting to Ireland...and more! Full Story
Welcome to a post-bubble wasteland left over after risking too much – and losing it all. Tokyo's credit-fuelled mania found its top nearly two decades ago. If you're expecting today's Anglo-Saxon bubble in debt to end quickly and pain-free, just take a look at Japan. Full Story
On Saturday, June 23, Hans Sennholz died at the age of 85. He was one of four men who earned his Ph.D. in economics under Ludwig von Mises at New York University. (The others were George Riesman, Israel Kirzner, and Louis Spadaro.) Earlier this year, he wrote an article for Lewrockwell.com on the influence Mises had on him, which was enormous. Unlike the other three, he arrived in class with a doctorate in political science, earned at Köln. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 25 June, 2007
The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world leapfrogged in recent days: aside from goods and services, we are now importing “consensus based crisis management” from Japan. Out of fear that a cleanup of bad loans would trigger widespread defaults, Japanese banks got themselves deeper and deeper into trouble by hushing up the problems. We are talking about the crisis at Bear Sterns’ subprime hedge fund. The crisis shows that major adjustments on how the market prices risks are overdue; this may have negative implications for stocks, bonds, commodities as well as the dollar. Full Story
Still no movement in the long term P&F chart so the last analysis of 25 May 2006 remains valid, i.e. a long term bull with projections to $780 and then to $915. As mentioned at the time, these projections look like pipe dreams but that’s what the long term P&F chart is saying. With the present chart I still need a move to $600 before I can invalidate the bull signal and go to a bear. Full Story
Stock markets are still floating on a sea of liquidity; however, the sea’s pollution and toxicity levels are coming under scrutiny. Markets have corrected some, but will most likely return to their asset bubble ways, as greed and the madness of crowds is not an easy thing to quench. Full Story
Ross Hansen, CEO of North West Territorial Mint. Susan Witt, E.F. Schumacher. How to become: "The Richest Man on Main Street." (YouTube) 3 Spotlight Picks with big dividends! If you'd like to be added to Chris's Free E-mail list, for each weeks ticker symbols and related information, please send a message to: goldseekradio@hughes.net Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 24 June, 2007
The Fed is telling us we are in a recession and that there will be continuing problems in the housing industry. The Fed has discovered that changes in house prices might influence the cost and availability of credit to consumers. Mr. Ben admits that “changes in home values may affect household borrowing and spending somewhat more than suggested by the conventional wealth effect.” He was particularly concerned about price falls in areas where people have little home equity. This is typically with a high proportion of subprime loans. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors - 24 June, 2007
This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge. The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with Paul, done just before writing this week's letter, will bring us up to date on his current thinking. I think readers will take away a few good ideas, so let's jump right in. Full Story
“Bond shockwaves to ripple through U.S.” was the big, bold headline that greeted readers of the Financial Times newspaper following the recent bond sell-off and corresponding rise in yields. “A sell-off in the financial markets this week could have serious implications for the whole economy, says Krishna Guha.” Pretty dramatic stuff to say the least. But that’s to be expected as the news media uses the latest financial “crisis of the week” to scare the average investor into believing financial collapse is imminent. Full Story
Thus far, obviously the Yen outlook has failed to materialize as policy from the Land of the Sinking Currency continues in a business as usual manner. From a risk/reward perspective however, I would still ask "where's the risk... where's the reward?" and count an unwinding of the Yen carry trade as a likely afterburner to the bearish downside should the global liquidity orgy begin to break up in earnest for other reasons. Full Story
After Friday’s dispiriting performance on Wall Street, we’re starting to think something actually has changed. But has it? Have we entered a bear market? We asked that question here two weeks ago but decided that any attempt to answer it would be premature. Give it another six months, we said, and maybe we’ll have a better handle on things. But with each passing week, as our borrow-to-consume economy lopes toward recession or worse, we can’t help wondering whether the answer is solidifying before our eyes. Full Story
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