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Weekly Archive

By: Craig Hemke - 1 March, 2019

In summary, the year 2019 is already unfolding just as we forecast in late 2018 and again in January. However, patience and wisdom will be prerequisites for anyone hoping to realize the gains that are coming. Keep watching this space for additional updates as the year unfolds.
Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 1 March, 2019

The government has no qualms about de facto confiscation of real estate, cars, boats, aircraft, whatever, to keep the taxes rolling in. When the Roman Empire was in its death throes, it faced the same problem of tax fugitives. Their solution? Simple. Laws were passed that forbade anyone from moving, or from pursuing any career other than the one of their fathers. And so the Dark Ages and Feudalism came to pass. Oh yeah, that solution is in the on-deck circle, you can be sure about that! Full Story

By: Daniel R. Amerman - 28 February, 2019

If there is a new recession in the next few years, then it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will take extreme measures in response, with the primary response being to swiftly knock short term interest rates back down to zero percent.

For many investors - the combination of recession, heavy-handed Fed interventions, and the return of zero percent interest rate policies (ZIRP) is likely to produce devastating results for their portfolios, and possibly their standard of living in retirement.

At the same time - some quite attractive profit opportunities will also exist, once we learn how to see them. This analysis explores one reasonably simple and practical alternative for turning zero percent interest rates into a 21% annual return. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 27 February, 2019

The great majority of the time in the stock market, it makes sense to run with the herd. When you try to turn against the herd while it is stampeding, oftentimes you get trampled. Yet, there are times in the market when running with the herd will lead you off the cliff. And, if you mindlessly run with the herd without having a grander perspective, you are bound to find yourself falling off that cliff. That is when it matters.

So, how do you identify that period of time when it matters?

That is where an understanding of market sentiment is key, so you can understand when it is ready to turn. Full Story

By: Stefan Gleason - 26 February, 2019

More than a decade after the 2008 financial crisis, U.S. monetary policy continues to operate in crisis management mode.

Despite a long, drawn out rate-hiking campaign – now paused – the Federal Reserve has yet to bring its benchmark interest rate up to normal levels historically.

It has yet to unwind the vast majority of the nearly $4 trillion in emergency asset purchases added to its balance sheet. Full Story

By: Dave Kranzler - 26 February, 2019

What I can say with 100% certainty is that the stock market continues to dislocate from economic reality. This is a situation that will be corrected sooner or later, with the stock market re-pricing significantly lower to a level that better reflects the deterioration in both the global and U.S. economy.

A perfect example of this is housing starts, which were released today for December and showed an 11.2% drop from November. The better comparison is the 11% plunge from December 2017, as “seasonal [statistical] adjustments” are used to obfuscate the real data trends month to month. The year/year comp is somewhat “cleansed” from “seasonal” manipulation adjustments. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, GATA - 26 February, 2019

"For gold to justify its current price in terms of inflation," Hulbert writes today, "the Consumer Price Index either needs to be 47 percent higher or gold needs to trade for $902."

But what if the CPI itself is completely invalid? And what if central banks have surreptitiously supplied or underwritten vast amounts of imaginary "paper gold" in the futures markets?

Those questions invite financial journalism. Hulbert's propaganda only deflects them. Full Story

By: David Haggith - 26 February, 2019

Of course, the Fed is reversing course now, so we’ll be safe, right? I’ve routinely pointed out for a number of years that the Fed has a perfect history of tightening into every recession; and my predictions for 2018 always said I believed the Fed would not change course until it is too late, and yet it has already begun. So, maybe the Fed is ahead of the curve this time, or maybe we’re already staring into the abyss of a recession and just don’t know it. Maybe the first quarter of 2019, wherein GDP estimates are being sharply revised down week after week, may turn out negative.

Regardless, the Fed has not completely stopped tightening; it has just talked of doing so. Based on how long it sounds like it will be before they actually stop their Great Recovery Rewind and the lag time I’ve mentioned more than once between Fed actions and economic impact, I think summer is about right. However, if you won’t take my word about the imminence of a recession, let me give a billionaire the final word.. Full Story

By: Jim Willie CB - 25 February, 2019

The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). These factors can be identified, each very powerful, each with a very new recent twist to alter the landscape. All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. The owners of the US Federal Reserve, Euro Central Bank, and Bank of England have granted themselves free money in gifted pilferage for a full century. As the saying goes, a nation needs a central bank like an oyster needs a piano. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, and corrupted demand functions.
Full Story

By: David Chapman - 25 February, 2019

Gold pushed into our major resistance zone this past week with a high at $1,349.80. There is still some room for gold to make a higher high, but major resistance is now clear up to around $1,365. We have noted the major resistance that defines this zone with highs of $1,377, $1,362, and $1,369 respectively in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Our expectations are that the first approach to this major resistance zone will be met with failure, but ultimately this time we should push through to $1,400. We note that gold’s RSI hit over 70 this past week, a zone often associated with tops. While we cannot rule out one more high here the question is how far will gold pull back. Currently good support zones could be seen at $1,300/$1,310, but below that level the next good support zone would be $1,280/$1,285 and below that $1,255/$1,260. Only below 1237 would we become concerned, and below $1,210 new lows would be possible. We doubt we will fall that far. Our best call is that gold could, yes, pull back to the $1,255/$1,260 zone. PDAC is in a week and that annual gold miner’s fest often signals a top. As well, we have the March FOMC on March 19–20 and any sign that the Fed is thinking of tightening again could spook gold to the downside. A reminder that economic numbers in the U.S. continue to be positive. The woes of Germany and Japan have not translated themselves into the U.S. As well, continued signs of the U.S. and China talking nicely will also help push gold lower. Again, we can’t rule out some small new highs up to $1,365, but our suspicion is we have hit at least a temporary high. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner, Monetary Metals - 25 February, 2019

As money has been slandered—the root of all evil, etc.—the loan has been demonized as well. And not just because the loan involves money, which is already established as pure evil. The loan piles a whole new kind of evil on top of the root of money. And many who accept money are opposed to lending, or at least lending with interest. Even the good guys.

In Politics, Aristotle wrote:

“The most hated sort [of moneymaking], and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural use of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term Usury which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money, because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of all modes of making money this is the most unnatural.”

This shows a pernicious idea... Full Story

By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio - 25 February, 2019

One of the few economic pundits to correctly anticipate the market plunge of 2018 on record.
Gold and utilities remain favorite long positions, while he is comfortable with a short position in long-term Treasuries.
Mr. Pento crushes the opposition on the trade war debate.
The Administration's tax increases on imports have actually boosted domestic GDP, contrary to popular consensus.
Only if the proposed 15% increase in new tariffs on China remains in full effect for a year will GDP suffer.
Meanwhile, global central banks printed roughly $15 trillion in debt IOUs while plunging real interest rates negative for the first time in recorded history, just to salvage the financial markets from the Great Recession. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, GATA - 24 February, 2019

From GATA's point of view the problem with mainstream Western news organizations isn't so much "fake news" as suppressed news.

Since the selection of every serious news story is essentially a political act, heavily influenced by the opinions of its writers and editors, news is not arithmetic. It always will be whatever writers, editors, readers, listeners, and viewers think it is. But at least "fake" news or news presented in a misleading way invites disputation. Full Story

By: John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline - 24 February, 2019

Dramatic Weakening
Missing Inversion
No Credit Stress
Not Going Global
The Rest of the Story
“I’m an American!”—Pat Caddell—RIP
Dallas, Athens, and Houston Full Story

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