The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented quantitative-tightening campaign is finally ramping to its full-steam speed in Q4. That will destroy $50b per month of quantitative-easing money created out of thin air! QT will need to maintain this terminal pace for over two years to meaningfully unwind the Fed’s grotesquely-bloated balance sheet. This record tightening poses a dire threat to today’s QE-inflated overvalued stock markets. Full Story
We now have confirmation that the trade war between the U.S. and China is going to be a protracted one, given that neither side is willing to back down. China has declined any further talks because they refuse to negotiate under the threat of further tariffs, or as they put it, with a knife at their throat. At the same time, Trump is clearly intent on pressing ahead with tariffs on all of China’s exports to the U.S., regardless of rising opposition at home. Full Story
Sometimes things that are obvious truths can appear before us that we have trouble seeing; along the lines of being too close to the trees to see the forest. It’s not that we can’t see what’s directly in front of us, but rather that we just can’t put what we see into proper perspective. To be sure, this failure to fully comprehend what we can clearly see is not caused by any lack of intelligence and may, in fact, be due to too much knowledge and experience in a given field. Full Story
Founder of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente returns with essential insights for savvy investors. The Global-nomic models indicate the 10 year bull stampede in US shares could end soon. US shares could be completing a key cycle top, as corporate insiders curtail record stock repurchases. Fed policymakers wind down economic stimulus operations. Full Story
It’s long been an article of faith in the sound money community that the Fed, by bailing out every dysfunctional financial entity in sight, would eventually be forced to choose between the deflationary collapse of a mountain of bad debt and the inflationary chaos of a plunging currency. Full Story
Sometimes a stock can push you just far enough to make you doubt the validity of your analysis just at the most opportune time. Such has been the case for the US dollar where all the evidence strongly suggests it’s in a bull market. I’m not going to go into a lot of detail right here, but I want to show you a couple of charts for the XEU and the XJY that still suggest they’re weak compared to the US dollar. Full Story
It should be clear that the Fed’s tightening is bearish for gold, shouldn’t it? Our today’s about the history of the Fed’s tightening and its impact on the macroeconomic variables and the gold prices undermines that popular belief. We invite you to read it and draw precious metals investment conclusions from it. Full Story
What does that modification imply for the gold market? Well, the decision to remove phrase about “accommodative” stance seems to be hawkish at the first glance. The Fed drops the dovish language, after all. Indeed, the change may signal that the Fed is moving closer to a restrictive policy setting. It would not be positive for the price of the yellow metal. Full Story
A UBI for the masses may become a reality. It will be costly. Bailing out the big banks in 2008 was also costly. The military-industrial-security complex, “big pharma” and other programs are costly. We already fund an equivalent of UBI for the military contractors, Big Pharma, Academia, food stamps and others. We will pay for current and future UBIs with consumer price inflation, devalued dollars, and diminished purchasing power of savings. As it has been since 1913, is now, and ever shall be… The banking cartel has devalued dollars for over a century. Stocks and commodity prices rise, but prices rise faster than wages for workers. Gold and silver prices rise as dollars devalue. The debt, deficit, UBI for everyone game will continue. Got gold? Full Story
One might be anticipating the end of a cycle and patiently adding quality names. That’s legit. What is illegitimate is this inflation pumping by the worst of the gold herd. There appears to be late stage cyclical stuff going on but these candles measure in months. For instance, even if SPX/Gold is close to topping out at the 2005 gap how many more months will it take for pure, unbridled speculation and greed to play out? And how unpleasant could it be all along the way for the lowly gold bug? Know who you are and how strong you are before positioning on forward expectations. Full Story
– There has been a recent change for the better in central bank attitudes to gold – There has been “net gold demand by central banks – approx. 500 tonnes per year – as a source of return, liquidity and diversification” – Policy shift to maintaining stable gold holdings reflects central bank concerns about financial markets and geopolitics – Little in the current global economic and political environment to support any reason to change in this conservative position – Central bank positivity to gold and gold buying should provide long-term underlying support to gold prices Full Story
Emerging markets continue to decouple from the U.S. market, making them look attractive as a value play—particularly distressed Chinese equities. Below I’ll share with you two big reasons why I think China is well-positioned to outperform over the long term.
So far this year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has given up about 10 percent, mostly on currency weakness and global trade fears. The S&P 500 Index, meanwhile, has advanced roughly 9 percent as a flood of passive index buying pushes valuations up and companies buy back their own stock at a record pace. Full Story
Global financier, Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics rejoins the show with this latest market commentary. Armstrong's next Investment Seminar - Annual conference is located in Orlando Florida, scheduled for November 16-17. According to Mr. Armstrong, "Tangible assets survive," when paper assets evaporate, making collectible items and PMs invaluable during financial crises. Full Story
Once the FOMC statement is released at 2:00 pm EDT on Wednesday—and once Chairman Powell concludes his press conference some 90 minutes later—you will be bombarded with analysis of how great things are, how the Fed may be "behind the curve" and how several more rate hikes will be forthcoming in 2019. But are these forecasts accurate, and what will be the impact on precious metal prices should the outlook change? Full Story
Gold has a history of rising after most rate hikes and does so quite significantly. I’ve noted that June is the exception to that rule, and this year gold was again weak after the June hike. GDX appears to be carving out a beautiful inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern on the daily chart and the price action of Barrick suggests good times lie directly ahead for most of the world’s gold stocks investors. Full Story
We do not have a free market in interest rates today. We have not had one since the creation of the Fed in 1913. The Fed began buying bonds almost immediately, which pushes up the price and hence pushes down the interest rate. Full Story
Last week we introduced Uncle Buck as an ‘internal’ and boy, did he not disappoint. USD dropped through the 94 area support and closed the week that way, despite a bounce on Friday. If the breakdown is not a whipsaw, our initial target is the 200 day moving average (currently 92.44) and the expectation would be for the global asset rally to continue. If it’s a head fake, it would likely be back to bearish for the global macro. As it stands now, USD is breaking down and markets are bouncing. Full Story
But where two are fighting, the third wins. Hence, the greenback should take advantage on the divorce between EU and the UK. It could limit the possible gains in the gold prices. Please remember that the EU will be weaker without the UK and its financial contribution to the common budget. We will see, a lot may still happen in that Brexit saga. Now, all eyes are on the FOMC September meeting, which could affect the gold market. The meeting will end on Wednesday and we will cover it on Thursday. Full Story
In the last two reports I developed the thesis that we are in the early stages of a post bubble contraction (PBC). This contraction actually began in 2008 and is now reasserting itself in the form of a global liquidity crisis (GLC). In this edition I show how this thesis just received mainstream validation and it’s now time to begin developing an investment strategy. Full Story
By: Andy Sutton and Graham Mehl - 25 September, 2018
The headline reads ‘Trump adds a trillion dollars to the national debt in 14 months’. Before you stop reading, give us a minute; this isn’t an article about Trump or politics for that matter. It’s about a process, a series of policies, and an approach that has been in place for decades now, irrespective of political parties. What we are going to give you are facts, not opinions. Those of you who read regularly should know us well enough to understand that we have no use for the ‘lesser of two evils / left-right paradigm’ approach to our Republic. Or what is left of it to be accurate. Full Story
In case you couldn’t tell from the ubiquitous political ads and yard signs, midterm elections are right around the corner. Historically, volatility has increased and markets have dipped leading up to midterms on uncertainty, but afterward they’ve outperformed. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 7.80 percent, scoring an eight-month high of $1,053.40 on Thursday, due to stockpiling by China, writes Kitco News. The World Gold Council reported this week that central banks added a net total of 193.3 tonnes of gold to their reserves in the first six months of 2018, representing an 8 percent increase from the same period in 2017 and the strongest first half of the year since 2015. Full Story
Last week, we talked about the capital consumed by Netflix—$8 billion to produce 700 shows. They’re spending more than two thirds of their gross revenue generating content. And this content has so little value, that a quarter of their audience would stop watching if Netflix adds ads (sorry, we couldn’t resist a little fun with the English language). Full Story
Dr. Raymond Moody, renowned psychiatrist; author of best-selling Life after Life (1974) and founder of The University of Heaven makes his show debut. The host is reunited with the former forensic therapist 30 years after sitting in Dr. Moody's undergraduate class. John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with dire comments on the domestic economy. US policymakers have attempted to revive the domestic economy via $14 trillion QE policies requiring $100 billion per month in QE operations. Full Story
No, it is not our intention to get into a discussion on financial astrology, although it is a rather fascinating subject. We have viewed our job as to provide insight rather than predicting. Throughout the years we have discovered that no one has the perfect forecast and no one has the perfect answer. But that doesn’t stop many from trying. Daily we see come-ons imploring us to get this next great stock or we have the next great prediction on the markets. Just read through a lengthy write-up telling you all about it, but not the stock, of course, and when you get to the end—it’s, subscribe here for the next great thing. Full Story
As long as stock prices stay high and rates stay low, no one cares; they're making too much money. But as rates rise and prices fall, these corporations will become crippled by their debt service requirements, be forced to lay off large swaths of their workforces, and quite possibly go out of business. Failures will ripple across the corporate landscape, sinking the US into prolonged recession. Full Story
With all the trade war talk, we all ask the obvious question: Who will win? President Trump says the US will win. Chinese business leaders say no, we will win. Free-traders on both sides say no one will win. Few stop to ask, “What does a ‘win’ look like?” Full Story
The most recent leg of the US stock market rally and the bounces in global equities, commodities and precious metals are coming as part of an “anti-USD trade”. Certain US stock sectors, most global stock markets, commodities and precious metals were pressured by the USD rally that began in April and now, as the buck eases, a relief valve opens. Full Story
Central Banks have become big players in the gold market and now control 10% of the total market demand. Now, this wasn’t always the case. Just ten years ago, the Central Banks were main suppliers via their policy of dumping gold into the market. However, the Central Bank strategy to sell gold into the market to depress the price, had quite the opposite effect. Full Story
Gold’s tiresome slog over the last month between 1190 and 1220 looks increasingly likely to end with a fall to at least 1165.30, a ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ support. If the stock fails to get traction there, look for more slippage to 1109.80. For gold bulls this would not be disastrous, only dispiriting. I still doubt that quotes will fall below $1000, not that that’s going to cheer you if you’ve been nurturing a position acquired since 2011, when prices peaked just above $1900. Full Story
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