The Government reported its “advance” estimate of first quarter 2017 GDP today. The data-monkeys at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy grew at just 0.7% annualized in Q1. This is down from the alleged 2.1% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2016. It was also 36% below the 1.1% forecast of the average Wall Street monkey economist. Full Story
Critically, this physical gold stored at both the Bank of England vaults and the commercial London vaults underpins the gargantuan trading volumes of the London Gold Market and the same market’s ‘liquidity’. Therefore, a new vault holdings dataset would be a very useful reference point for relating to London’s ‘gold’ trading volumes as well as relating to data such as the level and direction of the gold price, the volume of gold held in gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), UK gold import and export statistics, and Swiss and Hong Kong gold imports and exports. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 28 April, 2017
Donald Trump has made good on one of his most audacious campaign promises by submitting what he describes as the biggest tax cut in U.S. History. For once, at least, this does not appear to be Trumpian braggadocio. It really may be the mother of all tax cuts. But if passed, what may this bunker buster do to the economy? While I have rarely met a tax cut I didn't like, this one just may be more likely to send the economy into a downward spiral than it is to send up to orbit. Full Story
Time to bust yet another hole in the “stocks are cheap” argument. As we’ve already noted earlier this week, based on the only valuation metric that can’t be massaged, stocks are more expensive than they were in 2007 and on their way to tying the all-time high established in 1999. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 28 April, 2017
Gold has had a wild ride since Trump’s surprise election win in early November. This metal first plunged then surged, ultimately making little headway. It wasn’t until mid-April that gold regained its pre-election levels. This overall lackluster gold action was confounding given all the mounting uncertainties. But it once again highlights that gold investment demand is often hostage to the US stock markets’ fortunes. Full Story
In yesterday’s alert we wrote that the reversal in the precious metals market should once again not be taken at its face value and that one should not overreact based on it as the size of the potential rally was limited. Well, it turned out that “limited rally” was an euphemism for a decline. Gold, silver and mining stocks declined once again despite the previous day’s reversal and gold stocks confirmed the breakdown below the key support line. The implications are strongly bearish. However, there’s something ever more bearish and much more profound. Full Story
One jackass (oops we mean expert) after another, has been predicting that this market is ready to crash. The problem is that these brain surgeons have been making this argument for so long it almost sounds like the definition of insanity. Insanity boils down to doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a new outcome. These predictions are so off the mark that they make a broken clock look fantastic which happens to be right once or twice a day depending on whether you follow military time or not. Full Story
It’s a big picture view with a story to tell. People are micro-managing the VIX, talking about how it either doesn’t work anymore, if it ever did, or is forecasting extreme doom imminently (through investor complacency). But what is “imminently”? Is it next month or is it the 2-3 years that this indicator often wallows along the bottom of its support zone before overseeing a coming Armageddon? Sure, it started wallowing in the zone back in 2013, but then the ‘fuel stops’ that were ultimately bullish (the 2010, 2011 and 2015 corrections) cleared the overhead inventory of investors out of the markets. Full Story
Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies makes his debut on Goldseek.com Radio. Fed policymakers are bluffing on rate hikes - their true intention is rate cuts, amid 350% national debt per GNP. "The Fed will never again be able to normalize interest rates (allow to climb significantly) without sending the economy into a tailspin." Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 28 April, 2017
There’s this notion put forth by the majority in the precious metals community that the Fed and Central Banks control the market price of gold. I have even heard that some analysts believe the Fed could push the gold price any where they saw fit…. even to zero. While I agree that the Central Banks do play a role in gold market intervention, they most certainly CANNOT push the price of gold anywhere they want. This is an absolute falsity…. and I have the data to prove it. Full Story
This time, the U.S. central bank did not make us wait too long for the next hike. Just three months after the hike in December, the Fed moved interest rates up again. Although the pace of the current tightening cycle is extremely gradual, the U.S. central bank is consistently moving away from the zero interest rate policy. The chart below shows the current level of the effective federal funds rate after all three hikes. Full Story
Another big move in the last couple of weeks has been the sidelining of Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon as the Goldman-Sachs group wins more influence in the White House. Bannon has been the guardian of the anti-establishment hopes that put Candidate Trump in office. Full Story
In years to come there will be a wave of GDXJ and SILJ wanna-be ETFs. They’ll be smaller than the incumbent funds so initially at least won’t have to worry about owing too much of any one stock. But in the aggregate they’ll end up being bigger than GDXJ, which means they’ll swamp the junior mining sector — which is, as noted above, tiny and illiquid. The result: a serious, ongoing tailwind for a sector that’s already seeing increased interest from both investors and speculators. Going forward, the juniors will be the hottest part of what should be a very hot precious metals market. Full Story
In last week’s Insight article, America’s Financial War Strategy, I described how the Chinese government viewed the geopolitical scene. It is clear from earlier remarks by the Peoples Liberation Army’s senior strategist, Major-General Qiao Liang, that the view in Beijing is that America perpetuates her empire through the financial benefits to America from America’s actions against other nations, friend or foe. These actions can be either military or financial, or even both. This week, similar views were expressed in Moscow by Sergey Glazyev, a senior advisor to President Putin.i Full Story
GLD really hasn’t started to breakdown yet. The 10 day moving average is just starting to roll over. The gap around 116 (GLD) is likely to fill before this cycle bottoms. Full Story
We present a comprehensive review of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, including the members, the economics, the resources involved and the people. We show how this global organization is going to impact every person, business and country world wide. The US Dollar hegemony is dying. The Eastern countries are preparing for what is coming next. We hope you will heed the warning and begin doing your on research and plan accordingly. Full Story
Regardless of which “snowflake” (The James Rickards example) causes the avalanche, there is an avalanche in our future, whether it is an overdue stock market crash, on-going bond market crash, another massive QE program to levitate markets that leads to a crash in the dollar, wars in Syria, North Korea, or wherever the powers-that-be choose for 2017-2018. Full Story
Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente returns with comments on gold and US equities. Geopolitical events are escalating amid saber rattling with Syria and North Korea. Such events oftentimes result in market trends with key implications for global investors. Although the post-election rally in US shares is impressive, a reaction is necessary to sustain the upward momentum. Full Story
The PM complex has been taking up most of my time the last couple of weeks so tonight I would like to update you on some of the stock market indexes. No matter how one wants to spin it the US stock markets have been in a bull market since 2009 by any trading discipline. It has climbed the proverbial wall of worry which is needed to create such a dynamic bull market. Most of the charts will be long term in nature which puts the bull market in perspective. Full Story
The big announcement of the really, really big Trump Tax Plan with the “biggest tax cuts in history” came out bigly on Wednesday, as Trump promised. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, Trump’s latest tax team, beamed proudly as they presented their baby. The stock market took a deep breath, then looked at their brainchild and completely petered out. Full Story
The Canadian dollar has been smoked for a 0.65% haircut Tuesday and that trend is NOT going to end any time soon because of the old adage that "there is never only one cockroach"; these U.S. politicians will have a sitting duck target in their northern neighbors because Canada has absolutely zero leverage in the negotiations. With that, the Americans are bound to graduate from the obvious lumber bogeyman to other things like pipelines and banking and livestock, because once politicians see the popularity meter rising, they will seize upon this protectionist bandwagon like flies to manure. Full Story
An upthrust today exceeding 1290.10 would put bulls squarely back in charge. At that point our minimum upside objective would be 1315.10, a Hidden Pivot taken from the hourly chart where A=1248.20 on April 10. Alternatively, if the futures fall for a second consecutive day, the first chance they’d have to reverse would be from 1267.90, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot. However, a decisive penetration of that support would indicate more downside to at least 1255.80. Traders could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but I’ll recommend this only to those of you who have caught a piece of the short on the way down. Full Story
As far as the micro pattern is concern, as long as silver remains over the 17.40/17.50 region, I can maintain the expectation of a b-wave rally. However, should we see a break-down of that region, then I would have to adopt the yellow count on the attached silver daily chart, which would suggest we test the March lows again in a larger wave (ii) pullback. Full Story
Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowners stopped refinancing their mortgages. But now he’s back to being happily swamped because instead of refinancing, everyone is buying — often, he says, for above the asking price. A couple of days later my wife and I were at a slide show put on by friends just back from New Zealand. They’d heard that a neighbor was thinking about selling his house and on an impulse made him an offer. He accepted, and our friends became instant homeowners. Full Story
The SPX 500 has formed a triangle continuation pattern with a breakout above the upper trend line. The DJIA is acting like a new intermediate cycle has begun. The rallies our of intermediate cycle lows tend to be very powerful. Full Story
The U.S. Congress runs up against their self-imposed borrowing limit once again this week. During the last tussle over the borrowing cap in October 2015, Congress agreed to schedule this week’s political theater to occur well after last Fall’s elections. Full Story
The quiet revolution occurring behind the facade that is called “Washington, DC” for several decades has led to the complete hijacking of the U.S. Government by an entity nefariously known as, “The Deep State.” Those who warned about The Deep State previously were labelled conspiracy theorists. Now, with the help of Wikileaks, the idea of the Deep State is openly discussed even in the mainstream media. The Deep State is Orwell’s Big Brother. Full Story
Trump does know a lot about what sounds good. Candidate Trump always said he loved a strong dollar. Now that he’s the president who benefits from this easy economic juice, he’s reversed positions on low interest and high dollar. Some of Trump’s supporters might wish he’d gotten honest with them about all of this a lot sooner, instead of just sounding good because this month brought another massive change from a guy whose orange color and constant flip-flopping make him look more like King Salmon than anti-establishment president. Full Story
By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com - 25 April, 2017
GoldSeek Live! invites you to join Grant Williams, Senior Advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore. Grant Williams is also the author of the popular investment letter 'Things That Make You Go Hmmm…' and co-founder of Real Vision Television. Amir Adnani, Chairman and Founder of GoldMining Inc. (TSX-V: GOLD, OTCQX: GLDLF), one of GoldSeek's top picks for 2016, was one of the best performing gold stocks last year and #2 on the list TSX50 list of best performing stocks based on share price, market cap and volume/liquidity growth. Full Story
If the entire world only produces 880,000,000 ounces of silver per year...and if 75% of that silver is consumed through the production of cell phones, solar panels and other items...then how do The Banks manage price off of the remaining 220,000,000 ounces? The answer: Alchemy. Full Story
Over the past seven years I have dedicated myself to reading, studying and doing my level best to understand how our monetary, financial and economic systems work. Beginning in late 2007 I set out on a course ingesting books, articles and websites, whole. Spending as much as ten hours a day for months attempting to connect the dots. Today I spend approximately twelve to fourteen hours a day filtering through various news articles, books and videos to continue the process of dot-connecting. Full Story
A tsunami of inflation is rapidly moving through the financial system. Most investors only pay attention to the Federal Reserve. And they are missing the BIG PICTURE for Central Bank monetary policy. The Fed is tightening policy by hiking rates. But the rest of the world’s Central Banks are printing a combined $200 BILLION in QE every single month. Full Story
We are fortunate today to be joined again by Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at US Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors in recent months including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by The Mining Journal and received two more Lipper awards just last month in both the three year and five year precious metals equity funds categories. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambu Guru - 25 April, 2017
There are times when I feel pathetically lost and lonely, adrift in a sea of bewildering confusion and unnamed dreads, here in the Mogambo Bunker Of Paranoia And Despair (MBOPAD). Dispirited by the overwhelmingly bad economic outlook everywhere (and bad everything else, too) I languidly look out of the periscope, almost absent-mindedly scanning the perimeter for both real and imagined enemies. Full Story
Gold has given us a couple of confirmations that it is dropping into its daily cycle low. First, gold has closed below its 10 day moving average. And second, gold has traded below its daily cycle trend line. However, it is too soon to buy this setup as this video will explain. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 25 April, 2017
After the Primary Silver Mining Industry enjoyed a brief increase in productivity over the past two years, it fell to the lowest ever in 2016. The reason the primary silver mining industry’saverage yield increased in 2014 was due to the addition of Tahoe Resources high-grade Escobal Silver Mine. Tahoe’s Escobal Silver Mine’s average yield in 2014 was an astonishing 16.3 ounce per ton (oz/t). Not only did Escobal Mine enjoy one the highest silver yields in the world, it produced over 20 million oz (Moz) in 2014. Full Story
This week I will be in Washington, D.C., attending Evercore ISI’s Energy Policy And Geopolitics Conference, where I will be visiting senior staff from the White House infrastructure team and House Energy and Commerce Committee. I will also be meeting with John Fagan, head of the Treasury Department’s Markets Room, and Robin Dunnigan, the Bureau of Energy Resource’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Diplomacy. Among the topics of discussion will include energy independence, legal and policy issues impacting the energy sector, tax reform and geopolitical risks in Syria, Russia and Iran. Full Story
Nowhere has Donald Trump matched up with the original story of the Trojan horse more than in his overtures of peace, instead of military conflict. Nowhere has Trump changed more than in these same issues. Candidate Trump frequently persuaded his supporters to believe he would build more peaceful and cooperative relations with Russia and ridiculed the regime-change efforts of Hillary’s warmongering ways. Full Story
An upthrust today exceeding 1290.10 would put bulls solidly back in charge. At that point our minimum upside objective would be 1315.20, a Hidden Pivot from the hourly chart where A=1248.20 on April 10. Alternatively, if the futures fall for a second consecutive day, the first chance they’d have to reverse would be from 1268.80, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot. However, a decisive penetration of that support would indicate more downside to at least 1257.70. Full Story
In early February 2017 while preparing for a presentation in Gothenburg about central bank gold, I emailed Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, enquiring whether the bank physically audits Sweden’s gold and whether it provide me with a gold bar weight list of Sweden’s gold reserves (gold bar holdings). The Swedish official gold reserves are significant and amount to 125.7 tonnes, making the Swedish nation the world’s 28th largest official gold holder. Full Story
What jumps out at you should be the quadrupling of the their balance sheets since 2007 from $3.5 trillion to over $14 trillion. So what exactly does this mean? Basically, to keep the system from imploding upon itself the world's central banks had to "create" over $10 trillion of liquidity by purchasing assets onto their balance sheets. This is puts forth a "chicken or the egg" question, or actually two as you will soon see. Full Story
One of my subscribers sent an article to me that had been linked on Goldseek.com. The author laid out a case based on the recent events surrounding GDXJ and JNUG that the junior mining sector would likely “implode.” I get suspicious about an article when the author repeatedly, with much bravado, makes the claim the he is laying out facts and challenges anyone to present challenges to those “facts.” Typically that style of writing belies a conspicuous absence of facts. Full Story
The most prominent action in the precious metals market that we saw last week, took place in silver – the white metal closed the week below the important long-term support/resistance line, thus invalidating the previous breakout. However, there’s more to the precious metals market than just the action in silver. In today’s free gold analysis, we discuss both the developments in silver and other factors. Full Story
This week spot gold closed at $1,284.77, down $3.11 per ounce, or 0.24 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 3.62 percent. Junior-tiered stocks outperformed seniors for the week, as the SPX/TSX Venture Index off just 1.16 percent. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index finished the week lower by 0.62 percent. Full Story
Chris Powell outlines the documented PMs market rigging / manipulation. Key investment banks settled nearly $100 million in combined gold and silver manipulation settlements. According to GATA.org's findings, our officials have carte blanch authority to rig the markets in any way they see fit and by any means necessary. Without price transparency, free markets cannot exist. Companies continue to repurchase their capital stock, reducing share float and by proxy increasing price. The only major threat to US shares could be the failure to pass the corporate tax reform plan. If the measures fail to pass Capital hill, the event threatens to derail the US stock market advance. Full Story
When you spend a couple of decades writing weekly letters to hundreds of thousands of people you think of as friends, your readers naturally come to associate you with a few key ideas. I have certainly become known for at least one. My longtime regular readers think of me as the “Muddle Through” guy. That’s not an image I have tried to cultivate, but I have it anyway. Full Story
Remember the time you might have first heard the term ‘irrational exuberance’? I will never forget it. It was in December of 1996. Alan Greenspan tried to warn people the stock market was getting ‘carried away’ at the time, which is rich considering the bubbles he was responsible for afterwards. Fast forward to today, and we have the same situation essentially, given the larger degree credit cycle is much closer to an end than a beginning, if not done. Full Story
Has there ever been a bigger or worse April fools joke than the spectacle this month of Donald Trump revealing the manifold ways in which he fooled the multitudes? I sympathize with the many people who hoped for a shot at changing the corrupt political-industrial establishment as they feel their opportunity evaporate around them. Their hopes were the best hope this nation had, but the head-spinning transformation of Trump has turned stomachs to where some of Trump’s most ardent campaign supporters now publicly deem him Traitor Trump. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 24 April, 2017
The 2011 low of 5.7 in the Dow/gold ratio wasn’t far from the top of my expected bottoming range, although I doubt that the long-term downward trend is over. In any case, none of the buying/selling I do this year will be based on the realistic possibility that the Dow/gold ratio will eventually drop to 1. Such long-term forecasts are of academic interest only, or at least they should be. If I were forced to state a very long-term target for the US$ gold price, it would be infinity. The US$ will eventually become worthless, at which point gold will have infinite value in US$ terms. But then, so will everything else that people want to own. Full Story
There are two ways to react to such stories. The first is from the point of view of the finder, which is obviously “AWESOME!!!” The second is to consider the person who hid the gold in the first place and realize what a horrendous failure it represents. Someone saves for a lifetime (or audaciously steals or otherwise acquires real wealth), and rather than trusting the banking/currency system, hides that wealth in physical form, either for their own future enjoyment or their descendants’ security. This kind of wealth really can change the course of many future generations. Full Story
As we write this, the big news comes from the election in France. The leading candidate is a banker named Emmanuel Macron, with about 24% of the vote in a 4-candidate race. The anti-euro Marine Le Pen came in second with just over 21%. From the sharp rally in the euro, which was up about 2% at one point, we assume that observers believe the odds of France leaving the euro have just gone down. Full Story
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