By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 28 March, 2008
-The busted American consumer…a masked inconvenient truth…blunderingly stupid Wall Street… -The Bear Stearns of the North Atlantic…is it time to buy Icelandic bonds? -The great Empire of Debt will eventually destroy herself…other insights, forecasts and views to take you into the weekend! Full Story
Further to recent articles containing unfounded rumours and allegations alleging that the Perth Mint does not have physical precious metals (especially silver) to back its storage programmes or to make deliveries we have received a few phone calls and emails from concerned clientele. Both the Perth Mint and Gold Investments strongly refute these absolutely baseless allegations. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 28 March, 2008
Even if some borrowers and lenders were lead astray by the false economic signals sent by the Fed, they are never-the-less responsible for any losses they might have incurred as a result of following them. The real danger is that while government interference is actually at fault, it’s the free-market that ends up taking the blame. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 28 March, 2008
“Junior gold stocks” is a three-word expression that for some breeds dismay, trepidation, and anger. But for others it illuminates excitement, opportunity, and profits. Regardless of which camp an investor resides, one thing is for certain. During this fantastic 7-year-running secular gold bull, the junior gold stock realm has been host to a highly-volatile range of sentimental extremes. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 28 March, 2008
The 0.75% drop in the Fed Funds rate did not impress the market last week, expecting a full 1%. The impression given was that they might not be effective in calming the credit markets and returning the economy to growth. The insinuation that the fight against inflation had not stopped also encouraged the thoughts that the U.S. cannot avoid slipping into a recession and a self-feeding one at that. Full Story
By: Chris Gilpin, Casey Energy Division - 28 March, 2008
While more investment dollars have been flowing into oil exploration, less oil has been flowing out of the ground. The zones being accessed by developmental wells are third-tier producers, so the new drilling has failed to offset the depletion of America’s aging oil fields. Full Story
A major premise of The Strategy is that one can certainly remain a Hard Assets Partisan while at the same time insulating oneself from future Takedowns. The following points provide an outline of The Strategy (particularly as applied to the Gold and Silver Markets) and are designed to help avoid such unpleasantness, or even possible financial ruin, in the future, as well as to profit along the way: Full Story
JUST BEFORE the staff here at BullionVault start their monthly experiments with the cocktail cabinet, how about a thought experiment to get this party started. If you're game for a laugh, I'd like you – in reading the following quotes – to imagine the words "tax-payers' cash" wherever you see the words "government" or "central bank". Full Story
Seventy-five years ago this month Franklin Delano Roosevelt was inaugurated as the 32nd President of the United States. Within days after swearing to uphold the U.S. Constitution, through a Presidential Proclamation he closed the U.S. Mint to gold. Recall that the Mint had been established by the Constitution to protect the people’s right to sound money. Full Story
Instead, the next phase of the “Crack up Boom”, as outlined by Mises, commenced. For those of you who think the commodities BULL market is OVER, I ask you to please show me where the growing surpluses are? Do we see huge amounts of oversupply which marked the housing, NASDAQ and credit bubbles? NO. Do you think the emerging world’s growth stopped last week? NO. All we witnessed last week was a vicious correction which restored a lot of HEALTH to those markets as late arrivals to the commodities bull were taken out and spanked as they always are. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 28 March, 2008
All I can say is that if the credit squeeze fears are finally put aside around the same time gold and silver form their next major bottom then mining stocks may well be the place to be. In other words, if the S&P500 can rally to new highs in the next 12 months while the precious metals gun for their old highs then the HUI and other mining stocks will have the best of both worlds. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 28 March, 2008
I know that you think it is such a bargain that you cannot resist, and so I urge you to hurry, hurry, hurry to the Mogambo Silver Storage Service (MSSS), where our motto is, 'Send us the money, then we'll talk.' Full Story
The old saying, “what goes up must come down” took place over the past two weeks, in a number of futures markets. Gold and silver did get away unscathed. Both have seen corrections, which in and of itself is a good thing as it punctured what I believe to have been a “price bubble”. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 27 March, 2008
With a counter-party involvement in a significant amount of the $43 trillion derivatives market, the collapse of Bear Stearns would have been the financial equivalent of an atom bomb. Its failure threatened not only the U.S. financial system, but also sophisticated financial markets in most of the world. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 27 March, 2008
-The bursting tech bubble sucked all the wind out of the economy…the U.S. sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold - or is it the other way around? -Keep your eye on India…play it safe: diversify out of the U.S. dollar… -Zimbabwe is back in the news…a thoughtful note from the Persian Gulf…your last chance at a golden opportunity…and more! Full Story
The prevailing force-fed sentiment is that the US financial sector has bottomed out, the worst is over, the mechanisms for remedy are here, and time to get back in the water for profound bargains again. Let me rebutt! The financial sector is merely taking a breather in a long death march after the great bond bust and horrific unwind of reckless mortgage creation. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 27 March, 2008
In days gone by silver was not an investment it was money, in fact silver passed through more hands in everyday commerce than any other real money including gold. I state real money to distinguish silver money from modern paper money, which has flooded the world “money” supply the past three decades. Full Story
Thus, to say it all in one sentence, the threat of massive deflation can be eliminated, the threat of inflation ended, and the actual and potential domain of economic freedom greatly expanded, for $11 billion – an $11 billion that would not even be an out-of-pocket expense to anyone but merely a balance-sheet charge on the books of the Federal Reserve System when it deducted its gold holding from its balance sheet and added it to the balance sheets of the banks. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 27 March, 2008
Now get this: Total reserves are $43 billion (about the same as it has been for more than a decade!), and out of that total, $17 billion of it is borrowed from the Fed! Hahahaha! We are so freaking doomed! Full Story
Keep in mind that even though the Fed has thrown a trillion dollars at the “subprime mess” since August and cut rates by 3 percentage points, things have only gotten worse for the banking industry. In fact, since these desperate efforts began, the difference between what banks and the government pay to borrow money for three months has doubled to 1.92 percentage points. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 26 March, 2008
-Have we seen the bottom of the gold correction?…the importance of doing nothing… -How to take advantage of leverage and limit your risk in the gold market…housing continues to head down… -How will the consumer economy expand when the consumer's pockets are empty?…where's the next bubble?…and more! Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 26 March, 2008
I believe, but cannnot prove, that Kitco is short of bullion owed to their own customers in their pool account, and this would explain why they publish the anti-gold articles that they do. If you own precious metal in a pool account or certificate form with anyone, Kitco, Perth, Monex, Goldline, any Major Bank or Brokerage, or anyone else, I think you would be wise to cash out, and get real silver somewhere else, even if you have to pay extra fees to do so. Full Story
AMID ALL THE BROU-HA-HA over gold hitting $1,000 an ounce for three short days this month, another milestone in this nine-year bull market went completely un-noticed. Like the media-friendly $1,000 mark, this level offers a nice round number for evening news anchors to proclaim. It even comes with an extra digit – and it also remains to be reached and breached decisively, too. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 26 March, 2008
If Bear Stearns, considered by many to be one of the best managed investment banks on Wall Street with one of the best capital positions, was on the verge of becoming bankrupt, then all the rest of its ilk are in even worse shape and will soon join them in the toxic waste graveyard unless bailed by the Fed at the taxpayers' expense. Full Story
By: Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey - 26 March, 2008
As part of our survey of expectations for gold in 2008, one of our BIG GOLD editors interviewed famous contrarian investor and Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey. Here’s his take on what’s to come. Full Story
Given current uncertainty and volatility, it is more difficult than usual to project an outlook for the global stock markets 12 months forward, therefore to be able to generate an outlook there is first a need to arrive at key assumptions that will impact stock prices going forward before I turn my attention to the technical picture contained within the stock charts. Full Story
Effectiveness of a central bank can be measured several ways. For investors, that assessment is by return provided by equity capital in a nation and value of the nation's money. This week's chart shows that Federal Reserve deserves a failing grade. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 26 March, 2008
I am frantically pantomiming 'dialing the telephone' with the little mobility I have in my right arm, trying to get someone to call 911 to get me a little medical attention, and maybe save my life from the heart attack caused by such terrible news about inflation. Full Story
Government employment is one of the few areas where the economy can still be described as booming, and without it payroll numbers for the last few months would have looked even more dismal than they were. However, like retail sales figures that have been inflated by higher gasoline prices, when you peel away the statistical veneer, all that’s left are trends that are draining the last ounce of blood from the economy. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 25 March, 2008
-American markets continue to do what they do best - separating fools from their money… -How can such clever people be so clueless about what they've got in their own pockets? -A correction for gold - and a good opportunity for investors…the worst kind of world improver…and more! Full Story
Of course, the Fed claims there was no bailout, but the facts are obvious. Bear Stearns shareholders, holding a company that no one wanted to buy, received over $2 billion. JPMorgan, the buyer, received all the most valuable assets of Bear Stearns, which may be worth tens of billions, if not more, in the future. And we, the people of the United States of America? Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 25 March, 2008
My recent reports on the Silver Shortages at Coin Shops and major dealers have been popular, and widely re-posted. Misunderstandings and questions are more abundant than my ability to answer them all individually; but most could be answered if only people and coin shop owners only understood the basic market structure of silver, and did a little bit of thinking for about 5 minutes, and then a bit of math on the numbers, so let's start with the numbers, as reported by the CPM Group and Silverinstitute. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 25 March, 2008
Since last August we have watched as the sub-prime crisis turned into a credit crunch and from there into a liquidity crisis. Like a cancer spreading through the financial system it suddenly struck a vital organ, taking the seemingly controllable cancer into one the doctors are fighting to save lives. Full Story
By: Axel Merk, Merk Hard Currency Fund - 25 March, 2008
With the U.S. dollar reaching new lows versus hard currencies, many are waiting for Asian currencies to catch up. Why hasn’t this happened, and will it happen? The short answer is: it might, but be patient and don’t bet your farm on it. Full Story
A couple of weeks ago, Barron’s had an article evaluating the equity value of BSC. They indicated that the building itself is worth around $12 per share, plus the value from their other business, such as prime brokerage service, wealth management, investment banking, etc. It adds up to at least $20. But the article failed to mention that besides equity holders, there are also bondholders who have different priorities and incentives than shareholders. Full Story
Hey amigo, remain tranquilo, as they say here. While I too don't like these past few days in terms of the markets and what has happened to commodities, nothing has changed with the fundamentals. Full Story
By this "golden" metaphor we mean the stocks that truly are worth being called the GOLD STOCKS. It's not that these companies are better managed than other (however that might be the case) or that they have more appealing P/E ratio than other stocks. The point is that some stocks offer you more exposure to the price of the yellow or white metal, than others. In this way some gold stocks might indeed be called more golden than other. Full Story
We will know by the end of this week whether our smart money indicator has flashed a buy signal or not but right now we are almost there as there is now a 96% chance that it will flash a buy. While nothing is guaranteed this is the closest we have been to getting a buy in over 3 years. Full Story
If you’re reading this, you’re probably like me in this respect: Watching the market try to make up its mind is fun, the same way that watching a game is. The best part about this game is that you don’t have to wait until Sunday – it is always on, and there is no shortage of pre- and post game analysis. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 25 March, 2008
I sat the kids down and told them that gambling with every dime I can squeeze out of anything is not 'gambling' anymore; it is 'risk management', and it is now obvious that I am a modern kind of guy seeking to "maximize risk-adjusted rates of return'! Full Story
Most news outlets reported that investors were “cheered” by the Fed’s most recent rate-cut, but we know better. For it was nothing even remotely resembling cheer that pushed the Dow Industrials into a spectacular, 420-point surge last week, and into 200- and 300-point rallies since then; rather, it was the unmitigated panic of bears who had bet that stocks would fall. Full Story
First of all how do we define a jobber here (In India) ? Most of the jobbers here are people whose main source of income is derived through jobbing / trading INTRADAY / INTRAHOUR or even INTRAMINUTE in the commodity exchanges. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 24 March, 2008
-Derivatives: weapons of mass destruction…the effects of a credit bubble turned negative… -The Japanese have lost wealth for the first time in five years…all across the globe investors are planning for Plan B… -Examining the Catholic Church…a special offer from our friends at EverBank…and more! Full Story
By: Theodore Butler and Israel Friedman - 24 March, 2008
What does a shortage in silver mean? In a word, everything. If the initial clues of a silver shortage get transformed to the industrial silver users and large investors, in terms of increased physical demand for 1000-ounce bars, the industry standard, then say good-bye (and good-riddance) to the silver manipulation. Full Story
In terms of a correction target, as you can see above, gold could easily pull all the way back to the $750 to $800 range in testing the break above the 1980 high again, but at this point such an outcome is not anticipated. More specifically, and as pointed out last week here using Figure 3, if a top is established in early March like in 1978, expect to see an approximate 10-percent correction into late April before gold turns around on its way into four-figure territory. This would mean gold would be a buy in the $900 area if yesterday’s reversal holds. Full Story
The $988.5 forecast in Update 17 for the peak of Large wave I was exceeded by a small margin. The gold market now appears to be in the process of working through corrective Large wave II which is estimated to decline about 16%, give or take a couple of percentage points. Concerns about an extended 5th wave have been alleviated. Full Story
What could be better last Thursday than to buy some silver at less than $17 per ounce? Just a few days earlier, silver was more than $21, so by Thursday it was trading at almost a 20% discount! What better time could there be to convert depreciating fiat paper into real, beautiful, solid, dependable, and best of all, now cheap physical silver! Full Story
Now, you will excuse me if I seem a touch skeptical, but I can’t help but notice that short of climbing aboard helicopters rigged to carry pallets of dollars, the Fed is now doing exactly what we have been expecting it to: provide all the liquidity it can muster using its near mystical powers of money creation. Full Story
What does one say after a week like this past one? Memories of an old movie come to mind and the saying “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times”, then off they went to the guillotine. Those with their heads still intact might eventually benefit down the road. Full Story
One year ago on March 21, 2007, gold was at $660. Today, the price of gold is $919. Gold has not seen its top nor has the US economy yet seen its bottom. Both gold and the US economy are currently in a correction. The difference is gold’s correction will last days and the economy’s correction will continue for years. Full Story
The 1-year chart for gold is most interesting at this time, as it reveals that despite the ferocity of the plunge last week, gold dropped back to - but not below on a closing basis - the support of the lower intermediate uptrend channel that we had delineated some weeks back, and it also fell into a zone of strong support arising from earlier sellers around the $900 level, and closed off its lows on Friday. What this means is that gold is back in buying territory, even if we see further modest retreat in coming days/weeks that results in a trendline break. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 24 March, 2008
This past Thursday, the Fed, the “Working Group on Financial Markets”, politicians and street stooges created a 420-point rally after historic Fed intervention; similar to what they did the previous week. That rally was unwound and this one will be too. It will implode again. Full Story
The Fed has essentially funded the sale of a distressed asset to avoid the collapse of Bear Stearns, which, if allowed to happen, would put so many other banks into a state of insolvency that the domino effect would ultimately cause more big banking names to fall. The term “capitulation” comes to mind. Full Story
What we actually have here is either a short term bottom in the markets and another leg down to be signaled by the VIX or something more lasting, upon which paper myths may be revived. What we do not have here is a financial system that is being repaired. Either policy makers' efforts will be successful and we will proceed to the next round of heightened inflation effects or they will fail and it's "last one out turn out the lights". Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 24 March, 2008
My essay in Outside the Box last Monday seemed to ignite a lot of response in the blogosphere. My basic contention was that the Fed had to act to facilitate the sale of Bear to prevent a meltdown in the markets. Many agreed, but others said Bear should have been left to hang, pointing out that a thorough cleansing is what is needed. Full Story
By: Boris Sobolev. Resource Stock Guide - 24 March, 2008
What caused such a vicious correction in commodities which took gold along for the ride? We have recently expressed concerns that sentiment became overly optimistic and a technical correction was needed to relieve overbought conditions. Full Story
When will commodities turn back up? How long can the Fed successfully bull the stock market? Will Ben Bernanke completely destroy the United States of America? These are the questions I will be watching in the future. Full Story
Now about those condos. The Wall Street Journal recently lit upon this latest problem in the real estate sector with a front-page story headlined “Woes in Condo Market Build As New Supply Floods Cities.” Incredible as it may sound, condo developers are still going full-bore in such places as Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and San Diego. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & market forecast. Spotlight Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Chris Waltzek answer listener questions. 2nd Hour: -Bill Reid, Gold Resource Corp -Puru Saxena Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 23 March, 2008
After an incredibly volatile week for the precious metals, PM-stock traders are very worried. Despite Bernanke’s Fed forcing real interest rates even more massively negative, gold plunged. The PM-stock traders, never paragons of courage anyway, panicked. The HUI gold-stock index plummeted with gold. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 23 March, 2008
-Confusing and conflicting news from the markets…there's still money around - but it is running for its life… -An economy gone wild…commodities are down - and the dollar is up… -Automakers not expecting much in the way of a rebound…Alan Greenspan writes for the FT…and more! Full Story
A lot of stuff happened this week, so this report will be longer than usual, more like the reports of old – perhaps longer. So get your reading glasses on, make a pot of coffee, send the kids to the neighbor’s, and get ready to look at a whole lot of charts. Full Story
SO THE MONEY-CHANGERS didn't get thrown out of the temple this Easter Week. Instead, they got open-ended support from the money-lender of last resort, and snapped up a near-broken bank for $2 a share. Full Story
Buy and hold is dead! The extreme market volatility over the last decade should make this abundantly clear to even casual market watchers, but it is something that good traders have known all along: You trade securities, you don't marry them. Buying a stock is not a commitment "until death do you part." Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 23 March, 2008
Three more major silver dealers are reported to be out of silver today: The U.S. Mint, Kitco, and Monex. This, on top of the major dealers yesterday, Amark, Perth Mint, CNI Numismatics, and APMEX, all reported sold out. Further, nearly all of Canada is reported to be out of silver, from Vancouver to Toronto. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 23 March, 2008
What a week for the precious metals! Gold blasts past $1000 per ounce, and silver trades above $21, and then suddenly the floor drops out from under both metals. In fact, the financial markets in general seem to be reeling from the announcements of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Morgan buying Bear Stearns for $2 per share when this company was trading for $170 about a year ago. Full Story
The current ongoing takedown Of Precious Metals and Strategic Commodities in no way diminishes the increasing Systemic Threat about which we have often spoken. Indeed, it indicates that the Systemic Threat is increasing, as we demonstrate. Thus we have a Modest Proposal for a remedy, as follows. Full Story
Investors have had to endure a tremendous onslaught of horrendous news that has shaken the financial sector to the core. One pundit likened the past few months to flying a hang glider in a hurricane. That’s how it has felt to all of us as bad news begat more bad news…which in turn drove the financial markets lower. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 23 March, 2008
And even if you COULD pay off everyone's debts, to have another boom with the existing structure left intact would require the same degree of economic stupidity all over again! And nobody is that stupid. Are they? Full Story
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