By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 26 November, 2008
The US economy now headed toward completing its second year of recession is showing distinct signs of slowing. We are seeing less consumer spending and a lowering of asset values. This is deflationary, but what government is doing with money and credit far out paces any deflation – at least for now. Deflationists are wrong for now. Eventually they’ll be correct, perhaps 2 or 3 years from now. Our government, under the control of Wall Street and banking, has inflation schemes you never dreamed of. Do not forget the Fed has been increasing money and credit at about an average of 12% for five years. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 26 November, 2008
-A couple of quiet days for the stock market -- but the slaughterhouses and gold mints worked overtime… -Houses won't go to zero because they aren't financial assets, they are just places to live…the natural, normal response to the credit bubble… -Friedman: the voice of the masses…we are all turkeys, waiting for the axe…and more! Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 26 November, 2008
In view of the economic crisis facing the American and global markets, the recent strength of the U.S. dollar has confounded analysts. After all, the global economic problems essentially emanate from the United States and one would assume that the collapse of our economy would drag our currency down. That has not, as yet, transpired. The explanation can be found in a financial concept known as deleveraging. Full Story
By: Olivier Garret, CEO, Casey Research - 26 November, 2008
As the economic crisis continues to unfold, recently a sense of uncertainty has begun to pervade the market. Even dyed-in-the-wool risk takers admit that they don’t know what to think anymore. Inflation, deflation, recession or depression – there are so many vagaries that it appears to be anyone’s guess what will happen next. Full Story
The OMEN for a powerful shift in the gold market in my playful mind was the very real earthquake on November 18 here in Costa Rica, a clear signal from the financial gods, no minor tremor, measured at 6.0 on the Richter scale. The tremor confirmed the tectonic shifts to come to the gold market without question. This was the biggest earthquake in my life, no damage at all though, roof and toys intact. Numerous stories testify in aggregate to a severe tightening of the physical market, certain to put pressure on the corrupt paper market managed by the COMEX and its parent NYMEX. Full Story
"With John Maynard Keynes feted by governments once more, would you dare to guess how desperate things must become before a true revolution in policy becomes possible...? Full Story
As gauged by the Fundamentals and the still freezing Credit Markets - - as opposed to spasmodic spikes in the Equities Markets - - The Fed and Bush Administration’s U.S. Taxpayer-funded “Bailout Program” (by now $7.7 trillion* in capital injections, purchases, loans and guarantees!) has failed miserably in reviving the economy and restoring stability in the financial markets, notwithstanding the recent (and temporary) bounce in the Equities Markets. Full Story
Gold has rallied by $135 per ounce in recent days and yet the open interest has gone down showing that much of the move was created by shorts closing their positions. This will encourage more long interest to enter the market and should contribute to markedly higher prices in the coming weeks. Full Story
Collectively and individually, we all learn through crises. But only after a crisis is over do we recognize the lessons learned and become thankful for the fundamental and needed changes such crises bring. When this crisis is over, we too will be thankful for its gifts. But this crisis is not yet over. It has only just begun. Full Story
Now with all these trillions of dollars being thrown into the global economy - and I saw $7.2 trillion as one figure for the total US bailout which I don’t think included yesterday’s $800 billion - devaluation can not be far away. Just as soon as these notional trillions enter the money supply as real trillions the impact will be huge. Full Story
While anything could happen later this week, a number of conditions have developed that would favor a higher gold price by the weekend, perhaps much higher. First, due to the closure of the Comex in New York on Thursday and light trading on both Wednesday and Friday, there will be less selling than usual coming from New York bullion banks - this has probably played a big role in the steady gains over this two-day period in recent years as shown above. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 26 November, 2008
And, as the news just keeps getting worse, Iran just asked OPEC to cut production by a further 1.5 million barrels per day, which comes just after OPEC cut production by 1.5 million barrels last month! Yikes! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 26 November, 2008
America waded deeper into bureaucratic manure on Tuesday with the unveiling of yet another bailout acronym. This one goes by the letters TALF, which in case you haven’t heard, stands for Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. Unlike TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), which was a bailout “facility” for banks and other institutional lenders, this one is mainly for consumers. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 25 November, 2008
-We've seen the future - and it ain't pretty…a fairly good day for stocks yesterday… -Still sticking with selling stocks on rallies - and buying gold on dips…the universe is blowing itself up… -The nature of the universe…why women should stand by their man - and men should give a hug and go watch the game…and more! Full Story
This is not about some ineffective federal regulator unable to do its job and wasting taxpayer funds. Sadly, that’s not big news nowadays. The situation is much more serious. This is about many hundreds of concerned citizens alerting the sole regulator of its failure to enforce the most important law that regulator was created to enforce, and that regulator looking the other way. Full Story
For a moment, a tiny little moment, I actually had some hope for our entire system of government when I heard that the Congress had listened to the big 3 automakers and had rejected their plea for more of my money. But that was short lived. Apparently, the big 3 looters have until December 2, 2008 to come up with some sort of report of what they need the money for and how they are going to use it. Full Story
Based on a talk given outside the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, on November 22, 2008, during the first national End the Fed Rally, the grassroots protest at every Fed office and bank in 39 cities all over the United States. Full Story
The superiority of returns on Gold to investors over the miserable returns on paper equities would seem at some point to become an embarrassment to the purveyors of Stock Certificates of Negative Return. While US$Gold is down from the high, so many other investors, living in other currencies, around the world have witnessed their Gold trading at all time highs. Full Story
As this is going to be the last of these Updates, it is appropriate to review the reasons for writing this series of articles on Elliott Wave and the gold price. This will involve revealing a lot of personal detail and also unveiling an extremely high forecast for future gold prices. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 25 November, 2008
Is it just us, or do others think it absurd that a) "New Deal" style policies are being advocated when the original "New Deal" prolonged the 1930s downturn, and b) similar policies to those tried in Japan during the 1990s are now being implemented/promoted by people who proclaim that the mistakes made by Japan must be avoided? Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 25 November, 2008
As with my own future, Big Bad Things (BBT) are coming with regards to the value of the dollar and these G-20 weenies. And since simple prose seems so inadequate at a time like this, I give you a Mogambo Economic Poem (MEP)… Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 25 November, 2008
After turning in a sizzling performance in recent days, gold faces a crucial test not far above. The precise number to watch is 877.70, an important “Hidden Pivot” resistance that lies exactly $57.30 above yesterday’s Comex settlement price for the December contract. Although 877.70 is our minimum expectation for the near-term, the pivot could also stop the rally cold. Full Story
By: Olivier Garret, Casey Research - 24 November, 2008
The residential real estate sector is in shambles and, some economists say, will not recover until the end of 2010, at the earliest. Now it looks like commercial real estate may be the next block to fall in our “Jenga economy.” Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 24 November, 2008
-The stock market's eyes are open - but what does it see?…the world probably isn't coming to an end, but it is definitely changing… -The whole dollar-based monetary system is being washed away…gold in an upward trend in the near future? -Deflation now, inflation later…even Berkshire Hathaway has been cut in half…and more! Full Story
To say our self-serving bureaucracies have been printing a great deal of currency to bail themselves out their ill-conceived exploits that characterized the Bush years could easily be said to be an understatement. Perhaps a better way of putting things is the drunken sailors have finally come around, looked at what they have done, and realized it’s far better to tie one on again than to actually attempt conscionable governance. Full Story
Our objective in producing this film is to instill a basic comprehension in its viewers of the essential mechanics of monetary function, and trace the historical line from the establishment of the U.S. Federal Reserve up until the collapse of the banking, automotive, and soon, tourism, airline, steel and manufacturing sectors to demonstrate the path to the corrupt economic and monetary policy of today. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 24 November, 2008
It seems that the D-word is now becoming prevalent. You won’t hear it from the any of the financial authorities, or the politicians, or anybody in an official capacity. Well okay we overheard Stephan Harper, Prime Minister of Canada say “The world is entering an economic period unlike, and potentially as dangerous as, anything we have faced since 1929”. Okay so maybe there is some recognition that we are in unchartered territory. But the thought of an economic depression is not something anyone really wants to discuss. Full Story
Happy days are here again for gold bugs. The 43 dollar up move on Friday completed a double bottom formation, which counts up to $860. This should be enough to break the back of the bearish forces which have been dominant since March. Full Story
While there is some resistance near $825-$850 for the short term, the weekly chart for gold is starting to look promising. But before the downtrend line (now between $900 and $920) is penetrated, we cannot say that the correction in gold is over and that the new stage of the gold bull market has begun. Full Story
Gold prices shot up on Friday as investor’s move their money into a safer investment as the broad market continued it crash the day before breaking the October bottom. Once the price of gold climbed over the $760 mark which was a short term resistance level the price shot higher as new buyers jumped in and short covering took place pushing gold to climb $57 in one day which you can see in the chart below. Full Story
Saudi Arabian investors look set to emerge as the biggest buyers of gold and silver shares in the coming week as the leverage that these stocks offer to rising gold and silver prices becomes increasingly attractive. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 November, 2008
However, in the gimlet-eyed newsletter world, the prospect of having a Fed policy wonk in charge of the U.S. Treasury is about as heartening as having Harvard’s history department run the Armed Forces. We’d much rather the market had rallied 500 points on word that Obama plans to abolish the Federal Reserve. Full Story
It was a very volatile week but in the end the shorts and option writers won the day smashing gold down below $750 when price blew through that mark as quickly as it went up it went down. It’s unfortunate and obvious. Friday was a new day and with option expiry over the price was allowed to move since there was nothing at stake. Full Story
Gold closed up 6.64% for the week (continuous contract) with most of the gain coming on Friday as the daily chart below shows. Gold has been range bound for the past few weeks and today it broke above horizontal resistance and is now testing its 50 dma. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions. 2nd Hour: -Christopher Laird, Prudent Squirrel.com Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 23 November, 2008
Madame Speaker, many Americans are hoping the new administration will solve the economic problems we face. That’s not likely to happen, because the economic advisors to the new President have no more understanding of how to get us out of this mess than previous administrations and Congresses understood how the crisis was brought about in the first place. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 23 November, 2008
Housing starts fell to a record low of 4.5% in October and applications for building permits fell 12%. It looks like the builders after three years are finally getting the message. Wait until you see how many of these builders go under. The mortgage purchase applications index fell 12.6% versus plus 9% in the previous week. The refi index rose 2.6% versus 16.1%. The 30-year fixed fell 7 bps to 6.16%. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 23 November, 2008
Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt and pain (or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into what is happening in the credit markets, some of it below the radar screen of most analysts. We will look at the potential for deflation and the Fed's response. There is a lot to cover, so let's jump right in. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 23 November, 2008
Hey! Deficit spending like profligate morons while running around the world taking what we want and killing anybody that gets in our way characterizes The American Way! You are proposing to destroy our native culture, you insensitive, genocidal, racist bastards! Full Story
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