The average price increase, as shown by the CPI (Consumer Price Index), is 55% over the last 20 years. Meanwhile, the prices of individual sub-categories have a much wider variance. The good news is that the price of technology is generally getting cheaper. Software, TVs, wireless, and new cars have all come down in price relative to the CPI. Clothing, toys, and furniture are also way more affordable than they were 20 years ago. Full Story
BOMBSHELL and I mean BOMBSHELL news has just been released by the FBI. James Comey, the director of the FBI, has just announced that they are re-opening the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's 33,000 deleted emails. This news comes with only eleven days left until the finality of the campaign. Comey states in his report that due to another ongoing investigation, in which further evidence relating to Hillary Clinton was discovered, the FBI has deemed it responsible to reopen her case. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 28 October, 2016
The gold miners’ stocks have certainly had a wild ride this year. After initially skyrocketing out of deep secular lows into a mighty new bull market, they recently suffered a massive correction climaxing in an extreme plummet. This coincided with gold stocks’ major seasonal low in October. That heralds their strongest seasonal rally of the year heading into and through winter, a very bullish omen for coming months. Full Story
We just don’t know when, and the dollar is not alone. All the major paper currencies have been massively inflated in recent years. With the dollar acting as the world’s reserve currency, where the dollar goes, so do all the other fiat monies. Until that cataclysmic event, we watch currencies behave in increasingly unexpected, seemingly irrational ways. The fundamentals for Japan are not good, yet the yen remains the strongest currency of the big four. Full Story
The trend is still bullish, and until the higher end targets of $55.00-58.00 are hit, or the trend turns negative, all sharp pullbacks should be viewed through an optimistic lens. The trend is showing no signs of weakness so it would take a rather significant development for it change. As oil has traded as high as $52.00 the bulk of the upward move we projected earlier in the year is completed; all that is left is for the upper-end targets to be hit; after that oil is expected to trend lower slowly. We are not expecting a crash but a consolidation; we will examine the longer term outlook after crude oil tops out. Full Story
When President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, ending the gold standard, the central banks were left without a nominal anchor for monetary policy. So, at the beginning, they adopted money supply targeting. That approach was based on the constant growth in the money supply which was supposed to translate into stable inflation rate. However, as the velocity of money was not constant, monetary targeting failed to generate stable prices. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 28 October, 2016
I’ve seen a lot of commentary in which the author assumes that this year’s rally in the gold price is the first rally in a new cyclical bull market. It probably is, but at this stage — as the saying goes — the jury is still out. At this stage it’s best to reserve judgment, because blindly assuming something that might not be true can lead to large losses. Full Story
Bill Murphy of GATA.org rejoins the show while attending the 2016 new Orleans Investment Conference The 2016 PMs rally is one of the most explosive in history; once the election passes, PMs equities will blast higher amid a new golden era. The FOMC rate hike cycle will end in Dec. 2016, perhaps even reversing course in 2017-2018 to stave off the threat of another credit crisis circa 2008. Our guest underscores the importance for every investor to prepare for Talebian, "Black Swan" events, similar to the Brexit. Full Story
Precious metals do not "have" to reach a certain price point in order for your analysis to be correct, and for you to amass substantial profits. They just need to advance smartly over time, in line with what tends to take place as a robust bull market builds momentum and then much later, plays itself out. In respect to gold and silver, that upside run is – as a Canadian would say – "written in the rocks." Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 28 October, 2016
Precious metals investors are being misled by most analysts’ price forecasts because they do not understand the critical underlying fundamental value mechanism. Furthermore, there seems to be a great deal of animosity from the short-term trading analysts who view many in the precious metals community as pandering hype and conspiracies. Full Story
In June the UK shocked the world – or at least the world’s elites – by voting to pull out of the European Union. Economists predicted disaster, EU leaders threatened pain for British exporters and tourists, and the media settled in to watch the UK shrivel and die. Four months later, the appropriate response is a yawn rather than a scream. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 28 October, 2016
With Amazon shares getting slammed in after-hours trading, it’s hard to be bearish on the stock market. Let me explain. The canny, institutional dirtballs who manipulate this stock for a living have never been known to pass up an opportunity to shake it down in order to buy lots more of it at fire-sale prices. That’s what they are doing at the moment, seizing on a 27-cent earnings miss to put up some lowball bids. The stock has traded down to 745 this evening after ending the regular session at 815. Full Story
Recently, The U.S. Treasury ramped up war games via financial sanctions aimed at Russia. The EU is part and parcel to the operation. These interventions are a continuation of the age old warfare referred to as the “currency wars”. Jim Rickards’ recent book on the topic chronicles the use of this tactic. Full Story
We’re about to enter that time when financial commentators offer up their best guesses as to what investors can expect in the Near Year. It always makes for fun reading, but it also never fails to disappoint. Instead of engaging in that tired exercise in futility, investors would do better to focus on something more productive. And that would be next year’s most likely catalyst for stock and commodity prices. Full Story
Since 1999 the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has been trying to get the financial industry, the mining industry, and mainstream financial news organizations to acknowledge that the gold market is aggressively manipulated by governments and central banks to protect their currencies and bonds against competition from a potentially superior currency and store of value. This year seems to have been the one when respectable people in the financial industry gave up disputing us. Full Story
By: John Browne, Euro Pacific Capital - 26 October, 2016
For much of the second half of the 20th Century, and even into the new millennium, "Globalization" was the dominant theme used to describe the drift of the world economy. It was widely considered both natural and inevitable that the world economy would continue to integrate and that national boundaries would become less constraining to commerce and culture. And with the exception of the eternal "anti-globalization" protesters, who robotically appeared at large gatherings of world leaders, the benefits of globalization were widely lauded by politicians, corporate leaders and rank and file citizens alike. But a casual glance at the world headlines of 2016 suggests that the belief in globalization has crested, and is now in retreat. What are the consequences of this change? Full Story
As we near Halloween, the US stock market looks like it’s whistling past the graveyard near the end of a year that I predicted would be the dawn of “the Epocalypse.” (By that, I meant an economic apocalypse, the likes of which we’ve never seen.)
I have never seen a more rigged looking stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been flatlining in the narrowest range possible for almost four months. Coincidence, or has the Fed clandestinely set a threshold below which it will not let the market fall, just like it does openly for inflation — in order to make sure that nothing happens economically that would push voters toward Donald Trump? Full Story
One of the main purposes behind my public writings is simply to get you to think for yourself. I continually implore investors to no longer accept simple, superficial analysis based upon market fallacies and linear perspectives. Rather, I try to push you to begin to think for yourself than accept what you read or hear on its face. Truth is not always easy to uncover, and it often takes a lot of work. And, this is no less the case in financial markets than it is in all other aspects of life. Full Story
The Western central bank franchise system is totally broken, totally insolvent, and totally corrupt. It invites the Gold Standard return. The entire financial system is built upon a debt-based monetary system. The debt saturation process has run its full course. The central bank heads have been covering the sovereign debt for the last five years, having rendered their balance sheets as ruined. Debt is at obscene levels, like $19.7 trillion for the USGovt. No debt limits are in place anymore, a signal that most likely it has already defaulted. A hidden game is underway, with control lost to the creditors, even as they attempt to salvage their debt holdings. Full Story
For better or worse, that statement applies to the financial world as well. It is said today that 75% of all financial market volume is automated, though there are lower and higher estimates out there depending on the report. The bottom line is that algorithmic trading is the dominant market player – and this has benefits and drawbacks for average investors. On the upside, markets are less volatile and presumably more rational because they are driven by computers instead of fallible humans. Full Story
With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but… Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets. But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’. It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes. Full Story
The US election is now only about two weeks away. The winner of this election is likely to be… gold. Here’s why: Both candidates are eager to increase infrastructure spending, and that’s likely going to open the door to congressional discussion of the issuance of perpetual bonds (aka “perps”). That’s inflationary. It is also going to lead to a significant drop in central bank credibility, because central banks will be reluctant to increase the cost of borrowing for governments at a time when governments want to borrow more for their infrastructure spending schemes. Full Story
Eighteen months ago I wrote a short synopsis of a gold sales transaction by the central bank of El Salvador wherein it had sold 80% (about 5.5 tonnes) of its official gold reserves. The title of the post was “El Salvador’s gold reserves, the BIS, and the bullion banks“. If you thought, why the focus on the Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador (BCR), it’s not a major player on the world gold market, you’d be correct, it’s not in its own right that important. Full Story
By: Mike Gleason and Frank Holmes - 25 October, 2016
I think that we have the worst behind us unless rates do have a big surge. But I’d like to point out that a couple weeks ago on our Frank Talk, an investor alert which we publish every Friday on our thoughts and observations of capital markets, and in particular on the gold. We published it October the 10th was gold historical 30 year pattern. And when you do get this massive surge in September and a fall in October, and it is just done like clockwork. It happens 80% of the time. Gold corrects from a big run in September. So, this is normal. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 25 October, 2016
A bull-trap reversal hit the green line, putting a 20.24 downside target theoretically in play. Accordingly, we should look to trade the ETF with a bearish bias. That implies you could either look to get short now via camouflage, or wait until GDX trips a ‘mechanical’ short after the green line has been breached decisively for several bars. Thereafter, it is the rally back up to the green line that would get us short 'mechanically.' Alternatively, it would take a rally a to at least 27.26 to turn the daily chart back to bullishly impulsive. Full Story
Last week I presented at the MoneyShow in Dallas, where sentiment toward gold was a bit muted compared to other recent conferences I’ve attended. The yellow metal has certainly taken a breather following its phenomenal first half of the year, but the drivers are still firmly in place for another rally: low to negative government bond yields; economic and geopolitical uncertainty; and a lack of faith in global monetary policy. Full Story
The monetary debate seems artificially limited. On one side is Federal Reserve policy based on discretion. On the other is policy based on rules. It’s Keynes vs. Friedman. It’s central planning of our economy based on the reactive whims of wise monetary planners vs. central planning of our economy based on the proactive rules written by … wise monetary planners. Full Story
That question and other ones similar to it keep coming up lately and understandably so. Gold usually drops when the USD rises, but lately we do see both rising at the same time. I called a low in Gold recently and have been trading in the Precious Metals sector, but some are having a hard time believing it when they see the USD rising too. Allow me to share my thoughts on this. The following 4 charts are from the weekend report, where I tried to help my readers see the answer that question. Full Story
The word disaster represents an opportunity for the astute investor. It is only the uneducated investor that views a market pullback through a negative lens, and this is usually done because they have not taken the time to study the markets. One would be well served if one spent some time in examining the history of stock market crashes and what was taking place before the markets crashed. In every instance, one will find out that the crowd was bullish and every Tom, Dick and Harry was busy giving out financial advice. When the crowd is happy, you should leave the party. Full Story
After gold price discounts hit a record high of $100 an ounce in July, prices in India swung to a premium for the first time in nine months this week, reports Reuters, around $2 an ounce. The Business Standard also reported this week that the sixth tranche of the sovereign gold bond scheme in India is set to launch on October 24, with bonds being offered at a discount to attract more customers. Full Story
It’s just like the ‘Dirty 30’s’. People are broke and credit is about to dry up. So precious metal shares can only rally (so far) in ‘fits and starts’ as various polices are attempted. Again, the next monetarist salvo should be QE for the stock market (Fed monitizing stocks), and then helicopter money; and, if Trump gets in, his proposed tax cuts would figure into the equation as well. First we need the excuse for all this however, which won’t happen until after the election, when interest rates spike higher and equity bubbles burst. Full Story
China's currency, the Chinese Yuan, remains pegged to the US Dollar. So when the US Dollar strengthens, the Chinese Yuan strengthens to. For an economy as rife with garbage debt as China (shadow banking debt is over 200% of GDP), this is a DISASTER. With that in mind, consider that the US Dollar is now at 99. Full Story
Another week without much major price action, gold +$16 and silver +$0.12. At least if you look at the closing prices. However on Monday after New York market hours, there was quite a spike in silver. The close was $17.46. The price was up 10 cents by midnight in New York. By the morning before the open on Wednesday, the price was up another 20 cents, to $17.77. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 October, 2016
At first, no one even realized the U.S. was under attack. A week before the election, a New York Times reporter poring over Donald Trump’s tax return found a mysterious $5 billion deposit. When the story hit it caused all hell to break loose, politically speaking. The huge deposit was intended as a diversion, and it worked brilliantly. Full Story
Peter G. Eliades, Editor and Publisher, Stockmarket Cycles Jim Rogers is the author of Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip and Investment Biker: On the Road with Jim Rogers. Jeffrey Nichols is recognized as one of the world's top experts in the economics and finance of precious metals. Chris Martenson, PhD (Duke), MBA (Cornell) is an economic researcher and futurist specializing in energy and resource depletion, and cofounder of PeakProsperity.com (along with Adam Taggart). Full Story
With all the surprising and/or disturbing things going on – Brexit, China’s soaring debt, US/Russia/China saber rattling, the, um, unique US presidential race, the cyber attack that shut down big parts of the US Internet – you’d think that an unsettled world would be reflected in skittish financial markets. Full Story
Now is a good time to lighten up on equities and rotate into precious metals and precious metals miners. Don’t expect the miners to get dragged down with the overall market this time like they did in 2008, I hear this line regurgitated all the time as if history exactly repeats. It doesn’t. Although it does occasionally rhyme (I’m aware of the Ironic Regurgitation). Full Story
Financial markets are non-linear. That means that there is no certainty in the financial markets, just as in the rest of life. Therefore, one must approach financial markets from a perspective of probabilities and not certainty. When appropriately approaching markets from a perspective of probabilities, it means one MUST have certain risk management procedures in place to protect your capital. And, when managing your own money, you must be focused upon capital preservation, and then you can begin to grow your capital. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 23 October, 2016
Gold and gold stocks have stabilized after forming a short-term low and even held up well while the US$ index pushed to an 8-month high. Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, Gold and gold stocks would be vulnerable to further losses. However, many astute analysts and traders believe that Gold and the US$ index can rise together and we note that the trend in the US$ index while important, is not the primary driver of Gold. Ultimately, as long as Gold’s fundamental driver, declining or negative real rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track. Full Story
After years of gradually securing its official gold reserves (unwinding leases) the central bank of Austria claims to have completed the audits of its 224 tonnes of gold stored at the BOE. However, it refuses to publish the audit reports and the gold bar list. What could possibly be so sensitive to hide from public eyes? Full Story
Mining stocks have completed week 1 of a new intermediate degree cycle. They are now expected to rally for 14-18 weeks. This video discusses the price projections for GDX, GDXJ and JNUG for the upcoming advance. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 23 October, 2016
The world is heading towards a rapid disintegration of its economic and financial system due to a “Thermodynamic oil collapse.” I spoke with Dr. Louis Arnoux of nGeni, about the details of the thermodynamics of oil depletion and its impact on the global economy. Unfortunately, the world is completely in the dark about this energy information and its dire implications to global economic trade and finance, in a relatively short period of time. Full Story
Stocks are exhibiting more choppy and weaker action these days as we move back into earnings season. This saw me exit stocks and I’m in an all cash position once again with not much on the horizon for a couple weeks from what the charts are telling me. That said, I may grab a few quick short-term short trades if they come to me, but otherwise, I’ll be waiting for setups to complete in a couple or few weeks. Full Story
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