By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 27 July, 2007
-The Crack Up Boom isn’t all it’s cracked up to be...indiscernible dollars and booms... -How to succeed in business, war, and marriage...look at those Zimbabwe stocks run!... -Referring to the speculation rule...the usefulness of paradoxical gold...and more! Full Story
Those that are subscribers to my Twice Daily Market Commentary are aware that I have been making mention of the reversal in the Japanese Yen. The Yen has entered a Bull Market phase, which means that the “carry trade” used to purchase gold by some investors, has to be unwound. Full Story
Some of the damage to the bullish case for gold has been caused by central bank selling during the past few weeks. The positive aspect is that they can only sell it once. In the 1960’s these same central banks (the London Gold Pool), sold tonnes of gold, trying to stop gold from rising above $100./oz. They finally gave up. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 27 July, 2007
Even with all of this irrefutable evidence that the credit rug is being pulled out from under the feet of American consumers, Wall Street’s permabulls nevertheless remain undaunted in their blind optimism. Their one-way views are so myopic that they are blinded by their own arrogance. They are completely clueless regarding the fragility of America’s bubble economy or the phony nature of a prosperity based on low cost, no questions asked consumer credit. Now that those doing the lending are rethinking the wisdom of doing so, the party is coming to an end. Full Story
It is not our purpose here at Casey Research to massage the data to fit our point of view. In fact, we are nothing if not open minded. Recently, we asked readers to propose scenarios that might cause things to break in a direction other than that we expect. In response, a subscriber forwarded an article from Bloomberg with a very sound-sounding bearish view on base metals. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 27 July, 2007
Over the past couple weeks the financial markets have burst free from their usual summer doldrums to provide some welcome excitement. Prices that have long seemed locked in stasis with trivial daily moves are now witnessing dramatically increased volatility. It is great to see the markets getting interesting again! Full Story
Gold broke out decisively in mid-July from the $650-$670 area in which it had been somewhat range bound. The Fundamentals and Technicals grow increasingly bullish for Gold (and Silver) with each passing week, as Deepcaster has noted in recent Letters and Alerts. With the fundamentals and technicals both bullish for Gold the question was and is: will The Cartel* attempt, and be able to smash Gold (and Silver) lower? The July 26, 2007 Takedown of Gold and Silver would seem to suggest that that ability is unimpaired. Full Story
In our opinion recent market action in silver and gold appears to be consistent with what we would expect to see this time of year. Therefore keeping the right frame of mind while following our indicators helps us stay disciplined to make logical rather than emotional investment decisions. Full Story
REMEMBER WHEN banks lent money using the cash deposited with them. That's how most people still imagine banking works, even today. The banks hope to profit simply by charging more on their loans than they pay out to cash depositors. The art (or science) comes in choosing only the most credit-worthy borrowers, or adjusting the interest rate charged to higher risk debtors accordingly. Full Story
This article is not about the private companies that use sound lending practices. It’s about the many big financial players, the giant hedge funds, major money center banks, and Watt Street Investment banks. These are the “Big Boy Sharks” who created $2 trillion in subprime mortgages, using hubris and Gordon Gekko-style greed, and have recklessly used leverage and risk with other peoples’ money to book corporate profits. Full Story
The long awaited summer stock market correction finally kicked into gear this week. The FTSE fell sharply by its largest one day fall in some five years to 6250. Before I get to the current technical picture, the writing for the sell off has been on the walls ever since the warnings flashed to financial markets during the China initiated February 2007 sell offs. Full Story
Would it surprise you to learn that the so-far 5 percent selloff in the Dow Industrials has done almost no technical damage to the hourly chart, let alone the daily? Check out the graph below if you don’t believe it. As you can see, at the nadir of yesterday’s emetic 450-point plunge, the Indoos had yet to breach even a single important prior low. Full Story
-Reality negotiates for Americans…a world without a cheap Wal-Mart… -An argumentum that turns "ought" into "will"…illegal immigrants flock from peak oil… -Resource traders have only two choices…making dangerous, backward countries work for you…and more! Full Story
By: Gary Dorsch, Editor, Global Money Trends - 26 July, 2007
Perhaps the most important market in the world today is the vast network of foreign currencies, where total trading volume, including derivatives and futures, average around $2.9 trillion a day. This is ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the world’s equity markets. And as world’s economies have become increasingly integrated, so have the foreign exchange and global capital markets. Full Story
An unusual chart is presented, since the Broker Dealers sit at the nexus of the massive asset-backed bond ‘con game’ perpetrated upon the nation and the world. The extent of possible fraud will be sure to be unraveled. They sold acidic bonds, over-rated, misrepresented, opaque as a stone in their fundamentals and inner workings. REVENGE IS BEING DOLED OUT TO THIS DEEPLY CORRUPT GROUP, which boldly write in covenants to obstruct lawsuits by limiting legal liability. Full Story
With all of these tips about what not to do, there is one thing every value chaser should continue to do. Keep cash ready. To be sure, if you have the fortitude to ignore all the volatility in the marketplace you will come to realize that cash is fetching a decent return these days… Full Story
In any case, if the central bank moves to the new mercantilism and away from Bretton Woods mercantilism, the days of low interest rates will end in the United States. If Uncle Wong decides that Uncle Sam’s promises to pay cannot be trusted, and therefore cement is a better deal, the U.S. government’s fiscal policy will soon have feet in cement. Full Story
Gold Stock prices have been turned back again from major resistance. The 3rd time in a year! What does it mean? Are we entering another gut wrenching correction or will we reverse higher? Full Story
In this installment we’ll look at the components of the Kress yearly cycles and how they influence stock market trends over the longer-term. We’ll also look at how these cycles can help keep you on the right side of the market. Of equal importance we’ll discuss the limitations of cycle analysis which will help us avoid pitfalls that most cycle analysts seem to fall into. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 26 July, 2007
We face a collapse in real estate and then in the stock market, which are parts of a larger banking crisis. We should have had our recession in 1992 and purged the system then, but the elitists didn’t want to do that. Now we have an approaching catastrophe, yet Dow Jones doesn’t want you to know about it. What we are telling you is nothing new, it is just worse than it has ever been. The suppression of news will continue until we change the system. Hopefully that will be soon. Full Story
For our part, we see no contradiction in the stock’s hitting our worst-case and best-case targets in a matter of mere hours. And by the way, the 153.41 upside projection remains valid, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see AAPL make an important top there. It wouldn’t be the first time a stock became a ripe sale on great news. Full Story
By: Adrian Ash & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 25 July, 2007
-A visit from the Mogambo…blissfully awaiting the drop… -Who'll be happy when the boom cracks?…nothing like a string of good luck to destroy a person… -Picking a fight with the wrong market…insufficiently digested losses…and more! Full Story
Global investors took one look at unraveling of U.S. debt delusion, and took their toys home. The U.S. dollar plummeted to new lows versus most major national monies. That selling has dollar now over sold and due for a rally against some, with perhaps exception of yen. $Gold has rallied, and is over bought. $690 may scare off some buyers in short-term due to over bought condition. Full Story
The nagging reality that gold’s bull market is 6 ½ years old has caused many to think that gold should have a decent correction this year. Who would’ve thought in May, 2006 when gold shot up to $722 that a year later gold would have trouble getting near the $700 level? This does sound toppy, but gold is telling us to stay invested. Full Story
How much U.S. money is in circulation? Printed currency and coins amount to less than US$800 billion. This represents only a small portion of the total money supply. The following essay shows the composition of various monetary aggregates used by the Federal Reserves to define the total amount of money available. Full Story
We keep repeating the mantra that “Something Has Changed.” Exactly what has changed, from a technical standpoint, is discussed below, as well as some reasons why we are certain the Fed is about to begin loosening. (Sayonara, US$!) Meanwhile, talk about ugly! Bearish as we were at the opening yesterday, the ferocity of the stock market’s decline took us somewhat by surprise. Full Story
By: David Galland & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 24 July, 2007
-Tewkesbury becomes the Venice of England…did Bernanke go too far?… -Inflation not a problem - if you don't eat or drive…economists lost in the Alps… -Bigger isn't always better…investing in war zones…running out of children…and more! Full Story
The gist of my criticism is this: Mr. Constable tries to make it appear that Ron Paul wants to "go back" to an inflexible system that was abandoned in the 19th century. Nothing could be further from the truth. Dr. Paul himself has said there were flaws with the past system, and he would in fact like to move forward to a new, commodity-based, honest money system. A 100% reserve gold standard has never, in fact, existed in the United States. Full Story
The recent sharp rallies in the price of gold and silver have confirmed, once again, the importance of the market structure approach to determining price moves, as defined by the Commitment of Traders Report (COT). Recent extreme readings in the COTs did, in fact, pinpoint low-risk/high reward set ups in both gold and silver, culminating in the near $50 climb in gold and $1.25 increase in silver from the lows of a few weeks ago. Full Story
IT TOOK A WHILE for the financial media to catch on. "Gold funds fattened on war, global instability and a falling Dollar in 2003," said USA Today as the next year began. The paper failed to note that none of those calamities had stalled the equity markets ongoing recovery. "Gold bugs hope that 2004 will be even better," it went on, "but an outbreak of good news could dash those hopes." Full Story
Make no mistake, we are in uncharted water; it is unprecedented that the claims represented by the fiat currency of one government—that of the U.S.—have been accumulated in such massive quantities for the reserves of other governments. And we’re not just talking China but virtually the world. And the world is getting nervous. Full Story
At a time when the Dow Industrials have been moving to new record highs almost weekly, spurred by the manic performance of just one or two stocks on a given day (Merck was Monday’s excuse for a rally), the pronounced weakness of financial-sector bellwethers counts as just one divergence among too many. Advance/Declines and New Highs topped last winter, utilities peaked in June, and two-thirds of NYSE stocks are trading below their 50-day lines. Full Story
By: The Mogambo Guru & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 23 July, 2007
-The possibility of unpleasant results…a rush of blood from the greenback… -Dollar still in the limbo contest…pretty soon everything will be going haywire… -A somber scene…pseudo-Russians for the French Resistance…a joke…and more! Full Story
If gold can pass the next resistance point of $693, the $700 psychological barrier will be breached shortly there after. Then it will be on to the 26-year high of $730 an ounce. During this run, prices will be subjected to profit taking, however, these slight ticks downward should be viewed as buying opportunities. Blanchard is predicting $700 gold in September, should the price hold at these levels until mid-August. Full Story
Market pundits are coming out of the woodwork prognosticating financial markets are in real trouble now because the subprime mess will spread to other markets, and a ‘blood bath’ will occur in everything from commercial loans to the stock market. And then select others more conservatively espouse, while they are open to such possibilities given global imbalances / bubbles are undoubtedly stretched, it’s not over until the fat lady sings, but that at a minimum we should count on increased volatility in the days ahead. Full Story
Notice anything peculiar in the gold market? If you are real astute you have noticed a predictable oscillation in the gold price this past year or so. This is interesting. This is kind of like looking at a glass half full or half empty. Volatility in a given market can be a good thing or a bad thing. Full Story
Ever since both the long term moving average and momentum (RSI) first turned positive together in Aug of 2001 (with gold price @ $268) gold has remained bullish. Using the popular simple 40 week (200 day) moving average one can easily see the bullish trend throughout. There were a few periods when it looked like a reversal in process but at no time during this period have both turned negative at the same time. Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 23 July, 2007
It’s interesting times for gold and silver as the dollar bears and bulls fight it out over the 80 level of the US Dollar Index. As expected, gold and silver have risen in opposition to the dollar but the $1.15 move over the month for silver and $40 for gold may be getting long in the tooth. First we look at silver and then check out our gold sentiment indicator, which uses google hits on key gold phrases. Full Story
How big of a problem is the oil supply situation? The latest report from the International Energy Agency warns that the world will face an oil crunch in five years. IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in major producing areas while consumption is accelerating thanks to strong economic growth in emerging countries. Full Story
The powerful rally by large Precious Metals (PM) stocks over the past couple of weeks is believed to be the start of a ‘breakout drive” that will vault the sector indices out of the large holding patterns that they have been stuck in for past 18 months, for these patterns date back further than the actual highs to the start of last year, ushering in a period of rapid and substantial advance. Full Story
The Dow continues to power ahead, despite Bernanke’s warnings. But there is a short term sell divergence brewing that indicates a short correction may be nearby. The most impressive data belongs to the gold market. For 18 months the shares have been frustratingly and annoyingly trading in a sideways correction. Every attempt to break out was met with a dumping of stock to force prices back to the base line. But over the past week there have been several significant upside breakouts, the most prominent being on the Philadelphia Gold and Silver index. Full Story
Those familiar with this report know that I have ranted and raved about derivatives for years now, saying that unfortunately one day they would become a household word, as they spread their destruction across the land. That time appears to be coming closer and closer at hand. Full Story
The “stealth” bull market in gold continues. We’ve weathered much of the seasonally weak period for gold and in another few weeks will enter its most favorable period. All of the fundamental factors that got us here remain solidly bullish. I don’t see any reason why we can’t challenge and surpass last year’s highs around $735 before this year is out. Full Story
A truly serious counterfeiting operation would in fact plan to do something very similar to what Mr. Heath said a counterfeiter would not do – just not in a single step. The goal of a serious counterfeiting operation would be to persuade the public to use its money rather than the official bills it originally copied when it designed its original fake plates. Its goal would be the replacement of the original official bills with its own bills, making them official in the eyes of the public. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 22 July, 2007
So what is going on here? I'll tell you what is going on. The cartel is living in a 24/7 nightmare where their worst dreams could become reality in any given instant. If they allow the wall of shorts to climb too high and any of the Death-Stars detonate while their pants are down, they will be completely, totally and utterly annihilated! They are now being forced to give ground to the gold bulls and to keep targeting about 375,000 contracts so they have room to work if disaster strikes. Full Story
No sooner do we get done trash-talking Google than we hear they may be jockeying to take over the country’s (the world’s?!) cell phone business. If such an ambitious coup sounds implausible, click here for a persuasive prospectus from one Don Reisinger, writing for C-Net news. All they’ve got to do, says Reisinger, is win the FCC’s upcoming auction of 700MHz wireless spectrum – as how can they not? -- and the takeover will be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. Full Story
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