It is my privilege now to be joined by a man who needs little introduction, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. Dr. Faber has been a long-time guest on financial shows throughout the world, and is a well-known Austrian economist and investment advisor, and it's a tremendous honor to have him on with us today. Full Story
Within a matter of months, Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, has completely changed his stance. He ceased his saber rattling after realizing that the method of his fore-bearers would no longer work. Having reached "nuclear" status, the North Koreans could no longer be allowed to threaten the free world. Intense international pressure, the likes of which they have never seen before, resulted—including possible invasion via the United States and its closest allies. Full Story
The gold miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating low this year, exacerbating bearish sentiment. Even with gold grinding higher in a solid uptrend and nearing a major upside breakout, the gold stocks just can’t get any love. But that may be about to change, with gold and its miners’ stocks in the midst of their spring rally. Strong seasonal tailwinds make May one of the best months of the year in gold-stock bulls. Full Story
If trade wars and actual shooting wars (Syria, Yemen) weren't enough for the world economy to worry about, pressuring stock markets and threatening to derail robust global economic growth, there is another elephant in the room looking to stomp on traders, investors and everyday consumers, and that is a currency war. Full Story
Gold behaves like a currency. This has extremely important consequence: gold cannot be valued like assets which generate cash flows or even as commodities whose value can be at least estimated looking at the balance of demand and supply. Does it mean that gold is a mere speculation play? No! You have to remember that gold belongs to the currencies. As they have no cash flows, they cannot be valued, but they can be priced against other currencies. Full Story
The U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong surged in February consuming nearly all of the domestic gold mine supply. According to the USGS recent Gold Mineral Industry Survey, February gold exports to Hong Kong more than doubled compared to the prior month. This was an interesting increase in gold demand from Hong Kong as the market price increased slightly month over month. Full Story
Back in 2005 a reporter took a tour of General Motors’ headquarters, and in the resulting article one thing stood out: The executives and engineers the reporter interviewed were only modestly enthused about their sedans and sub-compacts. But they really liked talking about their expanded line of Hummers. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt and Xenia Taoubina - 27 April, 2018
For those that have followed the long-term bond market, you have likely seen many analysts attempting to call the top to the market. And, many have even tried multiple times. However, through the years, bonds continued to chug higher and high. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on buy signals. The cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
Decades ago, the famous market analyst Joseph Granville stated that "there is more maintained stupidity in this business than probably in any other business in the world," referring to the stock market. He was right, except that the government in Washington is now a strong contender for the title. Towards the end of his days poor old Joe "lost it" and kept making the same stubborn predictions and being proved wrong time and time again, which tarnished his reputation—he probably hadn’t reckoned on The Cabal and their machinations. In his younger days though, he was a pioneer, and invented such concepts as On-balance Volume, which is now a widely used indicator. Full Story
Chris Powell of GATA.org returns from a speaking tour in Hong Kong and Singapore including CNBC and Bullion Star, with intriguing research on the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). Purportedly, the BIS increased its gold swaps to 500+ tons for banking members, suggesting interested by emerging interest by central bankers and a gold supply shortage. Full Story
One of the main benefits of understanding Elliott Wave analysis is that it places the market into a larger degree objective context from which you can make your major decisions about your investments. Full Story
Historically this kind of a shift has put air pockets under the prices of investments that depend on extrapolating good times to infinity. The Nifty Fifty of the 1970s, junk bonds of the 1980s, tech stocks of the 90s and bank stocks of the 00s all plunged when investors decided that a bird in hand was worth more than two in a distant bush. Now it may the turn of the FANG stocks and their peers. Most are great companies, but they might still be worth only half as much to a pessimist. Full Story
Just last week, it appeared that a general rally in commodities was underway. Gold, silver, the base metals and crude oil were all soaring. But now, less than one week later, prices are falling sharply. And why? Blame the HFTs that trade the digital derivative contracts. They've "seen" the sudden, sharp rally in the US dollar, and they've been quick to dump their metals exposure as quickly as they bought it last week. Full Story
The willingness of a member of Congress to put to the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve specific questions like the ones GATA long has been pressing is especially encouraging. Not even Congress' last great gold advocate, former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, could be persuaded to do that, the issue apparently being considered too sensitive to the international position of the United States and the U.S. dollar's status as the world reserve currency. Full Story
A Member of Congress posed some pointed questions to the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury this week about their activities involving America’s gold reserves, including, apparently, efforts to “drive gold out of the world financial system in favor of the Federal Reserve Note or Special Drawing Rights issued by the International Monetary Fund.” Full Story
A stock market crash is not likely at this moment, because the market has pulled back sharply several times since January and the masses are nowhere near as bullish as they were in Jan of 2018. Given the massive run, this bull has experienced the current action though painful from an emotional perspective is well within the norm. No market can trend in a straight upward line forever; the equation must balance. We expect volatility to remain an issue until bearish sentiment surges past the 50% mark; a move to the 60% ranges would be ideal. Full Story
So what is gold? Let’s start with answering what it definitely is not. Gold doesn’t generate any cash flows itself (unless it is lent out, but it’s something different then), so it’s not an asset such as shares or bonds. There are two consequences of that. First, without cash flows gold cannot be valued using standard valuation methods, such as DCF and so on. Second, gold doesn’t behave similarly to other assets, so its correlation to them is very low, hence it may serve as a portfolio diversifier. Full Story
Silver, silver, and silver – that’s all there seems to matter to the more short-term oriented investors. But, there’s so much more that’s going on than just the rally in the white metal that just got invalidated! The dynamics in the precious metals market extend well beyond the above and the signal that’s coming from silver – as important as it is for the short run – is just one of many puzzles that create the entire precious metals picture. Full Story
Quick summary: U.S. debt, spending and deficits are out of control. Thinking otherwise is delusional. The “runaway train” of debt creation will end tragically. Protect your assets from a mathematically assured disaster while you can. Buy and hold silver, gold and platinum. Full Story
On 17 April, Turkish news publication Ahval published a report stating that during 2017, Turkey withdrew 26.8 tonnes of gold that it had stored in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve, and moved this gold under the custodianship of the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD. While I have gone on record as to why I do not think GLD is a wise long-term investment hold, I will still use it to track the market movements. Full Story
Today we are getting another whiff of what’s wrong in the markets. Currently, the Dow Jones Index is down over 500 points, and the NASDAQ is off by more than 100 points. Who knows where the markets will finally end up at the close of trading, but it really doesn’t matter. Markets aren’t valued in days or weeks; rather it takes months and years. So, be patient, and you will be rewarded with at least a 50% decline in the Dow Jones Index. Full Story
A cursory look at Chinese history can convince you that China should not be underestimated when it sets its sights on a particular goal. Even before Mao Zedong took over the reins in 1949, and the first Five Year Plan began in 1953, centuries of history demonstrated that long-term planning, while not always meeting expectations, is a core behavioral trait of the Chinese psyche. Full Story
All the fundamentals are in place to create significant inflation and debt financing problems for the West. They are also in place to create significant income growth in the East for a long period of time. The only thing that astute investors need to build sustained and significant wealth in the coming gold bull era is a very modest amount of patience and rational thought. It’s the greatest time in history to be invested in the precious metals asset class, and getting greater by the day! Full Story
Medieval coinage systems were typically bimetallic, relying on both gold and silver. To ensure the realm was well-supplied with coins, the monarch maintained a network of mints. Mints in the medieval times operated very differently than they do now. According to the principles of free coinage, access to these mints was available to anyone. By bringing their stash of raw precious metals to the mint, members of the public could ask the mint master to turn it into a specified number of coins, albeit for a fee. Full Story
Since the commodities supercycle began unwinding 10 years ago, many investors have been waiting for the right conditions to trigger mean reversion and lift prices. I believe those conditions are either firmly in place right now or, at the very least, in their early stages. Among them are factors I’ve discussed at length elsewhere—a weaker U.S. dollar, a steadily flattening yield curve, heightened market volatility, overvalued U.S. stocks, expectations of higher inflation, trade war jitters, geopolitical risks and more. Full Story
Without markets’ price signaling mechanism the world’s wealth creators and preservers are flying blind, making the typical mistakes of someone operating without crucial pieces of information. The resulting malinvestment is piling up like underbrush in a forest where fires have been suppressed for too long. And when a fire does break out it will be one for the history books. Full Story
What does it all mean for the precious metals market? Well, nothing. As North Korea did not really pledge to denuclearize, gold shouldn’t be significantly affected. It will not be degraded, just as the rising tensions didn’t boost the price of gold. But even if Kim Jong Un promised it, it wouldn’t shake the price of the yellow metal. Full Story
Frustrated by the comatose silver price? Tired of it going nowhere and being held down? Well, history has a message for you: This trading behavior is normal. Furthermore, similar scenarios from the past say the next price explosion is on the way. I know from past studies that silver doesn’t always shoot up when gold does, in spite of the fact that it almost always gains more than gold before the uptrend is over. I decided to put the data to a chart and see what it showed. Full Story
A new interview by James McDonald, Director of Enforcement for the U.S. Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC), on Friday makes it clear that neither he nor the Commission has any intent to address the obvious manipulation of the silver market, conducted principally by JPMorgan. As a reminder, preventing manipulation is the primary mission of the CFTC. Full Story
Jewelers in India, the second largest gold consuming nation in the world, expect a 10 percent rise in gold sales on key Hindu celebration day Akshaya Tritya, despite higher gold prices this year. Last year, sales of gold jewelry on the holiday were between 22 and 24 metric tons. Although bullion demand was down 5.4 percent in China in the first quarter as compared to the same time last year, demand for gold jewelry was up 5.6 percent to 180.50 tons. Full Story
It has been more than a week now since the FBI raid on Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen’s office and the U.S./UK/France air strikes on Syria. It would seem that all has quieted down. The stock market has returned to its winning ways as earnings season gets underway. So far, so good as earnings led by Netflix (NFLX-NASDAQ) have been positive. They are having a calming effect by crushing volatility as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has broken its uptrend line and is at its lowest level since early February 2018 when it was rising sharply. Not surprisingly, open interest on VIX futures were at record levels before this drop. Full Story
It was an interesting week in the precious metals complex. There appeared to be the start of a short squeeze in Silver (hedge funds were heavily short) but it ceased at important resistance. Meanwhile, Gold closed the week on a weak note, losing $1340-$1350. The gold stocks, like Silver closed the week below technical resistance. The price action in the complex continues to suggest that a breakout in Gold is the key to unleashing strong outperformance from Silver and the gold stocks. Full Story
Further to our ongoing theme of capital destruction, let’s look at a topic which is currently out of favor in the present market correction. Keynes called for pushing the interest rate down near to zero, as a way of killing the savers, whom be believed are functionless parasites. The interest rate has been falling since 1981. Full Story
China is the world economy’s elephant in the room. We can’t possibly ignore it, yet many try anyway. Admitting China’s influence forces us to admit the world is changing—and we all must change with it. Full Story
As for credit conditions, there is little imminently raising caution flags as commercial lending and risk taking (as indicated by high yield junk bonds) continue apace, but the note still stands on the bigger picture as the credit system and money supply are gumming up with the Fed in quantitative and Fed Funds tightening mode while the velocity of money in the economy maintains a secular downtrend. Full Story
In February of this year the year-over-year rate of growth in the US True Money Supply, a.k.a. the US monetary inflation rate, was only 2.4%. This was its lowest level since March of 2007 and not far from a multi-decade low. In March of this year, however, the monetary inflation rate almost doubled — to around 4.6%. Refer to the following chart for more detail. What caused the reversal and what effect will it have on the economy and the financial markets? Full Story
The Silver Market is setting up for one heck of a move higher as investors are waiting for the signal to start buying. While the silver price has shot up due recently, it still isn’t clear if this is the beginning of a longer-term uptrend. The reason for the quick spike in silver was likely due to a small short-covering rally by the Large Speculators trading on the Comex. Full Story
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