By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 27 February, 2009
The western, capitalist economies are in the midst of their own perestroika. They are being restructured. But not by the world-improvers. Instead, they are being restructured by capitalism itself… Leave capitalism alone and it will do the job far faster and far better than the meddlers could ever do. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 27 February, 2009
In his first televised speech before Congress, President Obama asserted that prosperity will return once the government restores the flow of credit in the economy. It may come as a surprise to him, but an economy cannot run on consumer loans. Furthermore, credit stopped flowing in the U.S. for a very good reason: there was no more savings left to loan. Government efforts to simply make credit available, without rebuilding productive capacity or increasing savings, are doomed to destroy what's left of our economy. Full Story
What a difference one week makes! With a gold price daring the $1000 mark in defiance, boldness prevailed, investors took heart, analysts cheered, and the establishment cringed. This week, with a very ordinary selloff in consolidation, optimism has vanished in what can only be characterized as silly. Gold & silver will take over the globe as anchors in a sea of shifting sands, all in time. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 27 February, 2009
There have been large and sometimes surprising moves in the three major currencies over the past 18 months – the Euro, Yen and Dollar. All three rose at different times during 2008-2009, but the Euro and Yen have stopped rising. As explained below, the Dollar should stop rising, and should begin to fall soon. Full Story
A DOUBLE TOP – or so technical analysts say – is an ugly chart pattern signalling not only a reversal of trend, but an all-out collapse. Gold just failed to breach and hold $1,000 an ounce, the "big top" for Dollar investors first reached in March '08. So might that be it? Could be. Who knows? Full Story
What ever would possess intelligent professionals such as those running the finances of major financial institutions to leverage their equity 88 to one in the case of Citigroup and 134 to one in the case of Bank of America? JP Morgan’s credit exposure to financial derivatives, (financial weapons of mass destruction) at last glance exceeded 400 to 1! An undergraduate student with average intelligence would clearly see that such outrageous levels of leverage would guarantee a bad ending. Full Story
By: Scott Wright, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 27 February, 2009
With gold getting a lot of attention in these wild markets, naturally its producers are also attracting interest. And almost silently, gold stocks have emerged from the depths of the 2008 stock panic to be the best-performing sector in the markets. From the November lows to this week, measured by the HUI gold stocks have soared 71% while the S&P 500 has merely ground sideways. Full Story
To determine where we are likely to find Opportunities in the current Crises, it is essential to realistically estimate the likely effects of The Stimulus Bill in the Context of these ongoing Crises. Accordingly, we consider key provisions of the Stimulus Bill. Full Story
By: Mike Hewitt and Dr. Krassimir Petrov - 27 February, 2009
In this paper, we analyze the value of money. We consider both paper money and gold. We attempt to relate the supply of money (MS) and gold to their purchasing power (PP). We demonstrate the extent to which printing of money dilutes its value. Full Story
The wheels of the perception management apparatus are turning at full speed, as evidenced by the audacious spin chief propaganda-meister Bernard “Tokyo Rose” Bernanke put on more bad economic news following another disastrous day in global markets. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 27 February, 2009
The rebound we had expected in the first quarter or so of 2009 is in trouble, or at least on hold. The Obama bounce has so far become the Obama bust. We suppose the signs were there earlier. November 5, 2008 – the day after the election – the S&P 500 dropped 5.3 per cent. January 20 (Obama inauguration day) it dropped another 5.3 per cent. It is an ominous start. Maybe the expectations were too high. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 27 February, 2009
As I have stated many times, the easy money has been made in the precious metals but the BIG money lies ahead, because if you think like I think, once this “disinflation” turns into a dollar collapse people will be looking for anything that will hold value, and that certainly includes both the precious metals. Full Story
Now that the groundwork is laid, I will offer opinions on commodities and deposit types that junior resource explorers or miners should (The Good), should very seldom (The Bad), and absolutely should not (The Butt-Ugly) select for flagship projects. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 27 February, 2009
Before I get started, let me introduce the topic of Silver with one argument on why you need silver. If you look at a 600 year inflation adjusted price chart for silver, silver is basically free today. In fact, the form of silver in silver dimes is below what it would cost to mint them today even if you made 200,000 of them, which would be about $2 per dime, and the cost would be the same if you privately minted zinc or copper, and you can get those dimes for $1 today, which means that the underlying silver is free. Full Story
Something has happened in the gold markets the past few days which has rarely happened before in the last several years of plutocratic skullduggery and dishonesty in their manipulation and control of the financial markets. I don’t know how many people picked upon it but it could be relevant in understanding the financial markets. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 27 February, 2009
I thought I was still asleep and merely dreaming when I opened up Barron’s and saw that the earnings of the S&P 500 dropped to $28.75, which is down from last week’s $45.95, which is down from last year’s $78.80. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 27 February, 2009
Here’s Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, cutting to the quick yesterday on Fox: “You can’t spend your way to prosperity,” said Huckabee, “with money you don’t have.” Hard to argue with that statement. And if Americans understand this, as they very likely do, we should expect to see Fox’s ratings climb in the weeks and months ahead. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner & The Daily Reckoning Crew - 26 February, 2009
Oh…we are such optimists! So far, the Crash of ’09 has paralleled the Crash of ’29…and the Crash of 1873. All three began in early September. All three saw the big selling in late October. Both in the case of ’29 and ’09 a near-term bottom was hit in mid-November. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Lou Paquette - 26 February, 2009
The Energy Report caught up with newsletter writer and commentator Lou Paquette, who launched the website Emerging Growth Stocks in 1995 to provide investors and speculators with a unique alternative to what he saw was a growing problem with corporate governance and conflict of interest on Wall Street. He believes that uranium has the supply and demand fundamentals needed to thrive, and he shares some of his favorite mining companies that are well positioned to ride out these turbulent times. Full Story
By: Byron W. King, The Daily Reckoning - 26 February, 2009
What’s going on? It’s a worldwide trend. Investors have been flocking to gold and silver. There’s a money migration going on. And I mean BIG money is migrating. It’s like those herds of zebras or wildebeests or gazelles in Africa. When they migrate, the earth shakes and the ground is just a moving kaleidoscope of hides and footprints. The dust clouds blow high into the sky. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne/Trendsman - 26 February, 2009
My previous editorial showed the super-bullish intermediate term (12 to 18 month) outlook for Gold. My technical work called for a correction that would lead to a massive surge beyond $1,000 and to $2,000. It now appears that the gold correction is here. More importantly, the near term peak in Gold is coinciding with what will be the first major tradeable rally in stocks during this historic bear market. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 26 February, 2009
Everyone has been guilty, at one time or another, of ignoring a cold. Though you knew you were sick, you may have kept working hard, playing hard, and staying out late. Not until you were bed-ridden did you start drinking orange juice and taking your health seriously. The U.S. economy appears to be following a similar trajectory. We have consistently ignored serious symptoms to the point where our economy is nearly a terminal case. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 26 February, 2009
My speech today is on why silver is money, even though no nation on earth uses silver as money. In other words, my speech is on why 99.9% of humanity is wrong, and why you are right! Full Story
For the past year or so a number of nations around the world have begun to openly question the practice of the various nations blindly allowing the US dollar to rule supreme over much of the rest of the world (as the world’s so-called reserve currency used in international trade and commerce), despite its problems in the United States. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 26 February, 2009
Total Fed Credit, otherwise known as Federal Reserve Credit, ballooned by a huge $76.9 billion last week, taking the Fed’s total “help” to the scumbag banks to a nice, cool $1.9 trillion, of which a whopping $56 billion gob of the money created last week by the Fed was used by the Fed itself to buy Treasury securities for itself! Hahaha! What a scam! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 26 February, 2009
So, Helicopter Ben believes he’s got inflation under control. That’s like Nagasaki’s public health director saying two days after the bomb that he’s got strep throat under control. The Fed chairman also said he didn’t see a need to nationalize the banks. That would the mayor of Nagasaki speaking, saying he saw no reason for Japan to surrender. Duly noted – and stay calm, folks. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 25 February, 2009
A plea to lawmakers…give liquidation a chance! U.S. stockowners got a break yesterday…the Dow rose 236 points. News reports tell us that investors were listening to Ben Bernanke. He’s speaking to Congress…intending to boost investor confidence. But we can’t find anything in Bernanke’s remarks that would give us much confidence. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 25 February, 2009
Ron Paul asks Ben Bernanke if he is prepared to admit that his policies are wrong and what it would take. He says "if, in the next 5 years we still have a bad economy with inflation and high unemployment [will you then admit you are wrong]" and Bernanke says "I will have to concede the point [if that happens]" Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 25 February, 2009
As the gold holdings of the Barclays Gold Trust and the World Gold Council’s gold Exchange Traded Funds across the globe grew larger than the gold holdings of Switzerland this week, we look at the dramatic shape of the likely Supply/Demand formula for 2009. Since the end of 2008 until now the gold market has changed shape and it promises to be a structural change should what we see now continue! Just how much gold is being absorbed at the moment from what sales and purchases? To understand this fully we have to look at the last reported figures in the gold market on Demand & Supply. Full Story
While we’re on the topic of J.P. Morgan and their aggregate 87 Trillion Derivatives Book [at Sept. 30, 2008] – we should all remember that our current financial crisis, that slew the likes of AIG, Lehman, Bear Stearns and soon Citi and BofA – these failures were all a direct result of blowups in their OTC derivatives exposure – derivatives exposures which pale in comparison to those held by J.P. Morgan Chase – like their “short” gold position for instance: Full Story
By: The editors of BIG GOLD, Casey Research - 25 February, 2009
Within the last year, 401(k)s and IRAs have ceased to be a safe haven for Americans’ nest eggs. In 2008, employees lost on average 14%, or about $10,000, of their retirement money. Those with more than $200,000 are even worse off – they lost more than a quarter of their savings. No wonder that more and more people are asking whether they can, or should, use an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) to hold physical gold. Our answer to the first part of the question is yes, indeed you can. The tax rules governing IRAs leave room for gold. But our answer to the second part is equivocal. Full Story
By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report - 25 February, 2009
I spoke with many enthusiastic readers who said they were fans of my work, which was very encouraging. Everyone was very respectful, appreciative, friendly and supportive. I'm beginning to gain a bit more confidence now, for several reasons. One is that I hear so many of the same questions again and again, which helps to know what the common concerns and thoughts are of people who are buyers or holders of silver, which helps me help people even better. Full Story
Can stimuli and bailouts of banks work? Of course not. With US housing having lost $7 Trillion in value to date, equities and other investments having lost an equal or greater amount, and financial institutions having lost virtually all of their assets, a mere few Trillion dollars of make believe money thrown to some insiders and those with the loudest pleas simply can not make more than a minor impact. Full Story
What is the real silver price? With the specter of counter-party risk driving silver into backwardation if there is a failure to deliver then it will likely cause the silver price to shift from the COMEX just like a failure to deliver would cause the gold price to shift from the COMEX. Full Story
There is a widespread feeling in Gulf banking circles that the single currency project will not meet its 2010 launch, despite a solemn declaration from finance ministers last December which established an executive monetary union council tasked with creating a central bank. Full Story
Gold and silver are looking toppy and ready for a correction. The charts above show where things should be headed over the next few weeks. I am bullish on gold long term but I don’t think it’s going to be as good as many are expecting. I have been watching the price action closely and if we do get a bottom soon in the markets, I think we are going to see money coming out of gold and silver and into the broad market, where there are huge opportunities floating around. Full Story
Right now I am looking for a consolidation that will take us down to neutral RSI levels. This will probably correspond to approximately $930 gold and $12.75 silver. If those levels don’t hold, then we’ll be heading back down to the low end of the trend channel at $880 gold and $11.75 silver. This correction will setup the next upward move where gold will take out its previous high of $1033 (spot price) and silver should trade in the $15-16 range or higher. I expect this will happen by the end of March or early April. As was true this past month, I believe that silver will have a greater percent price rise from the next bottom to top than gold. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Doug Casey - 25 February, 2009
Bullion and oil appear in the lineup of power players that Doug Casey thinks investors can count on as the world slips deeper and deeper into what he calls the “Greater Depression.” Despite the raging economic storm and Doug’s doubts that Western civilization’s governments will take the actions needed to quell it, though, the Chairman of Casey Research is nowhere close to calling the game. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 25 February, 2009
What a relief. The markets are up. We’re all saved. It’s time to spend again. Borrow away. The panic’s over. A recovery is coming in 2010. We’re home free, right? Full Story
The past 36 issues of the Goldsmiths have primarily focused on the plutocrat bankers and their quest for ever more profits and especially as they are able to rip off and steal from people in the futures and commodity markets. But while they have a very powerful and dedicated motivation for profits and gains, their efforts also have another serious purpose in life. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 25 February, 2009
Gerald Celente, founder and director of the Trends Research Institute opines, “To be using 1930s models to get the U.S. out of this is really stupid. Back then when we first crashed, most people didn’t have homes. There was no such thing as home equity loan. And back then, people didn’t have credit cards. The consumer wasn’t 14 trillion dollars in debt. We had a manufacturing base that built the world out of the Great Depression following World War Two. We no longer have that.” Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 25 February, 2009
For a few shining hours yesterday, anyone monitoring the markets might have believed that all was right with the world. Shares were sharply and broadly higher, precious-metal bulls were getting savagely rebuked, and the Fed Chairman was acting as though he’s got everything under control. Bernanke in fact predicted the recession would end this year and give way to a recovery in 2010 if actions taken by the government lead to some stabilization in financial markets. But as the Wall Street Journal noted online, that’s a mighty big ‘if.” Full Story
With gold reaching $1,000 an ounce and posting new highs versus all currencies, are there any hard currencies left? Over the past 100 years, we have moved further and further away from the gold standard. We see no indication for that trend to reverse; if anything, it may accelerate. As a result, we have cautioned long before this credit crisis erupted that there is no such thing as a safe asset anymore; investors may want to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 24 February, 2009
Stocks fell 250 points, on the Dow, yesterday. Only 2,100 more to go. The Dow ended yesterday’s trading at 7,114. Before this correction is over, it will trade below 5,000. That has been our prediction for the last 10 years. Maybe we were a little early. But we’re sticking with it. Full Story
Chinese President Hu Jintao has been touring Africa with a stop in Saudi Arabia. Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Hui Liangyu got to siesta in Latin America while Premier Wen Jao Bao engaged in a ‘Trip of Confidence’ to Europe with a fruitful visit with the Russians. While most of the deals in this round of jet-setting involved oil; for years the Chinese have been busy securing gold, silver, potash, natural gas and other commodities. Full Story
Are you surprised? Once again one can not help but feel a certain unease about the latest and greatest in global economic news. What has once been unthinkable in terms of collapse first became a fringe perspective, then an analyst’s opinion, and has now evolved into prime time entertainment. What a difference a year makes… Full Story
How low can the Dow go in this bear market? Yesterday the index dropped to 7,114, a 12-year low, and there is no sign of a market bottom in sight. It was notable that almost all stocks tumbled without exception, so there was again no place to hide like last November. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 24 February, 2009
Over the past two months we've explained why we think a great depression is on the cards. We are not 'doom-and-gloomers' who relish the prospect of an economic debacle; in fact, we very much hope that our depression prediction proves to be way off the mark. Our analysis of the economic situation is simply heading where logic takes it. Full Story
Most people and their advisors were happy to believe that the markets were free and subject only to supply and demand (or the fundamentals and technicals). But with the collapse of commodities in September 2008, other analysts and market watchers began to pick upon the reality of plutocratic control of the financial markets. Today, many web sites and analysts are aware of the reality that the markets are not free and responsive to supply and demand. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 24 February, 2009
And with universal participation, because all currencies will fall due to over-issuance, everybody in the whole world is going to jealously watch their neighbors and relatives making profits by buying gold and holding it against the guaranteed loss of buying power of their money! Wow! Everybody in the world! Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 February, 2009
For those who have been patiently waiting for a day of climactic selling to end the bear market, yesterday surely was not it. It was instead more of the same death-by-a-thousand-cuts bloodletting that has halved the Dow Industrial Average since the 30-stock index recorded an all-time high at 14198 in October of 2007. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 23 February, 2009
The terrible pile-up on the world’s financial highway has left us all in shock. We check to see if our fingers move. We look in the rear-view mirror to see if there is blood on our face. And then we crawl out of the car. Thank God, we can still walk! No broken bones. Full Story
The ongoing current A rise that started last November is the strongest in this bull market and the strongest since 1999. Since this is an abnormally strong 'A' rise in an abnormal world recession, if gold reaches a new record high above $1004, gold will most likely be embarking on the start of a great bull market rise. Full Story
Here is the great, grand cycle bull market in gold which started in 2001 and has, thus far, multiplied its price by a factor of 4. (The grand cycle bull market in gold of the 1970s multiplied its price by a factor of 25 before it was over.) It is a simple chart, but it has many important lessons (which few understand). On the central economic question of our time -- is there going to be currency depreciation or currency appreciation – this chart speaks volumes. Full Story
The markets are falling apart much faster than originally anticipated, which is troubling with respect to the inflation case. This is why we highlighted the scary reversals in M1 and M3 growth rates earlier in the week, to alert you to the possibility conditions might progress such that general price weakness could develop moving forward. While it’s true such discussion might be premature, and it would take time for such reversals to have lasting effect, never the less, it’s disturbing to see money supply trends possibly turning down at this time with a major sell signal in the stock market now in the bag. Full Story
It is this simple fact, that the relative price of silver compared to gold is so distorted, relative the their respective quantities in existence, that is all anyone needs to know to buy silver. This is not a knock on gold. I will stipulate to and accept as true every bullish argument that anyone could make on gold. You could spend hours or days lecturing me on all the good things that gold has going for it, and I will accept them without dissent. When you are done giving all the bullish gold arguments, I would just add two things. One, all those arguments apply to silver as well, and two, there is less silver than gold. Full Story
Investors can improve their odds by learning how to assess the fundamentals of the gold exploration companies. A good tool for this job is what I call “The Five M’s.” By using the Five M’s, an individual investor can build a simple but powerful model to initially sort through the many hundreds of upstart gold companies to find better opportunities. Full Story
The US consumer has been shorting cash for decades. The very low, sometimes negative savings rate has shown that Americans have not wanted to accumulate cash. Americans did not want to go long on cash, they wanted to short it. They went long on houses to live in, houses to speculate with, boats to have fun with, new cars, extra cars, ocean cruises. They also went long on stocks – now selling for 50% of their value in October 2007. Full Story
Modern economies were created by the collusion of bankers and government. The banks are now collapsing and only the governments are left. It’s like watching a two legged man trying to stand on his one remaining leg. How long will he remain upright and in what direction will he fall? Full Story
The folks over at the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) were quite busy last week, adding a total of 420 tonnes of silver to their stash, pushing the inventory at the world's most popular silver ETF above the 8,000 tonne level for the first time ever. Full Story
The current strength of the gold price is leading to a massive gold sell off in India as holders of the precious metal cash out at high prices. Are Indians right to be selling their gold or should they be holding on? Full Story
By: Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst - 23 February, 2009
The main question for precious metals investors this week is whether gold is about to form a massive double top. If we pull up the gold chart we have shown on several occasions, we see gold is just about to meet the upper channel line we have suggested it will be bounded by. And guess what? It meets the old NYMEX high of March 17th this week coming. Can anyone say "double top"? Full Story
In the early days of ancient Greece, governmental units called city-states developed. As these entities were feudalistic, the local fat cats controlled them. Perhaps from this organizational concept, other city-states developed in other parts of the world and often with surrounding walls. Over the centuries, these city-states proved hard to defend. So they largely vanished from the world scene; though some survived. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 23 February, 2009
Although our elected leaders might not feel so strongly about gold as Keynes, who was appalled by the popular appeal of “that barbarous relic,” they are nonetheless dumbfounded as to why anyone would prefer gold-backed currency to the Monopoly money that The Government has empowered as legal tender. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions. 2nd Hour: PBS: The Ascent of Money Nial Ferguson Full Story
Alot of subscribers have been perplexed by the relatively miserable, laggardly performance of Precious Metals stocks in recent days as gold and silver have soared, especially against various major world currencies. This is one thing which is easy to explain - they have been held in check by a massive wall of overhanging supply that dates back to the extensive trading around the current price for much of 2006 and 2007, which we have looked at earlier on the 4-year chart for the HUI index. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 22 February, 2009
The tenor of the gold market has changed. Gold has decoupled from the dollar and at the moment it is not driven by fear of inflation or hyperinflation, but by a flight to quality. What else can be expected when the media reports that governments are deliberately creating inflation to offset deflation? Jewelry demand that normally makes up 80% of gold demand has dropped and investment demand is what is now driving buying. Full Story
By: Gary North, Mises on Money - 22 February, 2009
PMG: You still believe in gold. SMG: Yes, I do. I own gold coins. PMG: Is that because you don't trust the Federal Reserve System? SMG: Yes. PMG: Why don't you trust the FED? SMG: Because the country isn't on a government-enforced gold standard. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 22 February, 2009
This week's letter is likely to lose me a few friends, though. I am going to start a series on money management, portfolio construction, and money managers. It will be back to the basics for both new and long-time readers. I am not sure how long it will take (in terms of weeks), but it is likely to make a few people upset and provoke some strong disagreements. Let's just say this is not stocks for the long run. Full Story
By: Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing - 22 February, 2009
Well, all of these financial crises are just starting it now. This crisis has been accelerating for the last 15 or 20 years. We always had little bubbles with technology stocks and whatnot, but bubbles had totally distorted the whole landscape to the point we’re at now. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The MOGAMBO GURU - 22 February, 2009
An article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph had the headline, “If Eastern Europe falls, world is next”, which I take to be a new domino theory, as the domino theories I am used to, run along the lines of, “If anything happens to America, everybody else is freaking toast!” and the more personal, “If anything happens to the cookies in my lunchbox, Mogambo, you are a dead man!” Full Story
The economic collapse continues to deepen with no end in sight, just more spending. In general many stocks remain expensive on a historical basis. Gold and silver are soaring as some investors are waking up to the economic reality of today. More investors every day are realizing gold and silver have been and will be the places to be as the world economy continues to grasp at a bottom. Full Story
The US $ broke through resistance but quickly dropped. A false break-out?? In the mean time gold just keeps on trucking. A very little more upside and it will be in new all time high territory. Full Story
Both the Dow Industrials and Transports hit new lows, confirming a Dow Theory sell signal, as the charts below show. I don’t believe this particular aspect of Dow Theory (confirmation by both indices) is that important or imperative as a market timing tool. By the time such confirmations are made a lot of the damage has already been done. Full Story
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