It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Mark Investments, and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on new outlets throughout the world, and it's great to have him on with us again. Axel, thanks for joining us today. Full Story
This is not to say that some of the trophy assets listed above aren’t valuable. But the opportunity costs of paying today’s prices for them are both shocking and sad. The fact that so many seem willing to accept those costs implies that beyond a certain point money doesn’t just destabilize the currency markets. It also twists its owners. Full Story
Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner biases. The result has been that after taking excellent profits from the precious metals bull, personally, I have greatly under performed the stock market bull despite holding a bullish analytical view for the majority of the post-2012 period. Full Story
This epic central-bank-easing-driven global stock bull is starting to be strangled by the very central banks that fueled it. This week the European Central Bank made a landmark decision to drastically slash its quantitative easing next year. That follows the Fed’s new quantitative-tightening campaign just getting underway this month. With CBs aggressively curtailing easy-money liquidity, this stock bull is in serious trouble. Full Story
Yes, I still think we can push one more rally out of this market, but there is no question in my mind that risks have risen, as I have now been writing for over a month. When the GDX broke down from its upper support in its last break out set up, it clearly should alert us all to the potential trap door just below us. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, discusses the worst natural disaster in California history, the 2017 firestorm. The host proposes that 40 lives and 8,000 structures might have been spared if clay / terra cotta roofing panels were required by state building codes. The onus of most of the fires stemmed from smoldering embers spread by the 40 mph gusts to adjacent roofs, where highly flammable tar tiles quickly ignited. Full Story
The accumulation of monetary policy errors by the Fed is increasingly certain to culminate in the credit crisis that always marks the end of the credit cycle. Credit crises are the result of globally coordinated monetary policies nowadays, so the timing of the forthcoming crunch is not only dependant on the Fed’s actions, but is equally likely to be triggered from elsewhere. Candidates for triggering a global credit crisis include economic and financial developments in Europe, Japan and China. Full Story
I haven’t posted much on the US dollar lately as I’ve been waiting for the dust to settle, as the price action completed another reversal point in its nearly 2 1/2 year trading range. Tonight I would like to update some of the charts we’ve been following to see if we can gain any insight into what the US dollar is currently telling us about which way it wants to go. We’ll also look at some other currencies that may shed some light on the direction for the US dollar. This first daily chart for the US dollar starts at the 2017 top and down to the bottom of the 2 1/2 year trading range. Full Story
Ordinarily news organizations are most interested in questions that high government officials refuse to answer. But mainstream financial news reporters are not interested in questions about secret government intervention in the gold market and secret interventions in markets generally. No, such questions are too sensitive, considered matters of national security. The best that mainstream financial news organizations can do is just to acknowledge the questions sometimes. Mainstream financial news organizations can never pursue the answers, no matter how easy it would be to do so. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with Part II on the Bitcoin phenomenon. According to the mythical founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, in Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (2008), trust in financial transactions was hijacked by the financial intermediaries. The solution emerged from the elimination of the blockchain signature / hashing system. Full Story
By: Avi Gilburt with Ryan Wilday - 26 October, 2017
In our previous article, we briefly described, in layman’s terms, the technology underlying cryptocurrency. Then we described how to get started with your first cryptocurrency purchase. In this article we want to characterize the crypto trade so you can begin a journey toward successful trading. Cryptocurrency is a very volatile asset and perhaps the most volatile asset we have seen. We expect it to remain this way for some time. Full Story
ECB President Mario Draghi is now walking back QE. This is not a surprise to our readers. I’ve been forecasting this exact development, (as well as the Euro's spike to 120) since August 2016 (by the way, the Euro was at 109 back then everyone thought it would soon reach parity with the $USD as it collapsed). Still, why is Draghi doing this? Full Story
Using the HUI Gold Miners Index, this video details the successful techniques of trading using daily and intermediate cycles as well as sentiment analysis. Also examined are the typical strategies employed by retail traders which do not work well. Full Story
The U.S. Deepwater Offshore Oil Industry is a trainwreck in the making. The low oil price continues to sack an industry which was booming just a few short years ago. The days of spending billions of dollars to find and produce some of the most technically challenging deep-water oil deposits may be coming to an end sooner then the market realizes. Full Story
Recent high-profile cyber security breaches at Equifax and other financial institutions highlight the perils of an all-digital economy. When wealth can be evaporated or expropriated at the stroke of a key, how secure can your finances really be? Obviously, there is a big difference between wealth you can tangibly hold and wealth that exists only in electronic form. Full Story
Throughout history governments have always supplemented their tax revenue by debasing or counterfeiting the currency. In modern times the government’s central bank has made this process almost impenetrable, while the Keynesian-dominated economics profession has deluded the public into believing it’s in their interest. So, at base we have an institution that is violent, a monopoly, an extortionist, and a counterfeiter. It’s also a murderer, kidnapper, and a liar. And it’s running our lives. We ought to be able to do better. Full Story
Fifty years ago the U.S. bombed North Vietnam. That worked out well for the military contractors but not for people or global economies. Twenty six years ago the U.S. fought Iraq and Saddam Hussein. That worked out well for the military contractors but not for people or global economies. Ten years ago the U.S. fought in Iraq. That worked out well for the military contractors but not for people or global economies. Full Story
Gold has now confirmed it is in an intermediate cycle decline. It is making lower highs, lower lows and trading below its 10 day moving average. I suspect this decline will not bottom until sometime in December as we are early in the current daily cycle and sentiment is still dead neutral. Full Story
Before November 3rd, President Trump is going to announce his choice for the new Federal Reserve Chairman. It seems a three-person race between Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell and John Taylor., Gary Cohn and Kevin Warsh seem to be getting distanced by the front 3. Full Story
It was one of the coolest scenes in the Adventures of Superman show: Clark Kent ripping back his business suit to reveal the Superman outfit underneath while he sprints to save the day. Probably millions of people have seen that transformation. Well, a similar transformation may be underway with gold, one that shows this market may be ready to fly… Full Story
As cyberattacks increase, Mike is worried about keeping cash in the bank. If the U.S government, Equifax, and power plants can get hacked, our banks are probably next. So what money can't be hacked? Mike discusses in this new video. Full Story
One of the most frustrating charts to trade during 2017 has been almost any chart in the metals complex. In fact, if you speak to most metals investors, you would almost think that they have incurred a huge loss in 2017. But, that is far from the truth. In fact, since we caught the low around 107 in the GLD at the end of 2016, we have seen it rally almost 20% off those lows when it struck its 2017 high back in early September. As I write this article, we are still 13% off those lows. Full Story
In a nutshell, here is a graph that summarizes everything you need to know about the unsustainable US economy. Unless you’re in the top ten percent of income producers in the nation — or, at least, living in their neighborhood — you are living in a dingy bedroom economy that has only seen its net worth decline since the Great Recession began. Those who are in the top ten percent, on the other hand, profited astronomically from the Great Recession. Full Story
Towards the end of financial bubbles, asset prices behave in ways that can’t be explained with rational/historical metrics. So new ones are invented to make sense of things. In the 1990s tech stock bubble, earnings were “optional” and “eyeballs” – that is, the number of visitors to a dot-com’s website – were what determined value. In the 2000s housing bubble, home prices would always rise, which justified pretty much any selling price and asset backed security structure. Full Story
America’s 2017 fiscal gap will come in near $6 trillion, nine times higher than the $666 billion deficit announced by the US Department of the Treasury week, says Laurence Kotlikoff, an economics professor at Boston University. “Our country is broke,” says Kotlikoff, who estimates total US government debts at more than $200 trillion, when unfunded liabilities are included. “We are in worse shape than Russia, China or any developed nation.” Full Story
A falling gold price tends to make trend-following speculators bearish, which leads them to close out their long positions and expand their short bets. It also leads commercial players – the banks and fabricators that tend to be right at turning points – to start shifting from short to long. But not this time. As the most recent commitment of traders (COT) report shows, speculators are staying long and commercials are staying short. Full Story
While the financial media “high fives” over stocks hitting new highs, something far more important is brewing in the bond markets. Bonds are the “smart money” in the financial system. The bond markets are not only much larger, but much more liquid than stocks. As such, when a major change begins to unfold, bonds usually “get it” much faster than stocks. Full Story
What does Saville suppose is the purpose of these interventions if not to affect gold's price, especially amid all the records in government archives found by GATA and its friends affirming the objective of Western central banks to remove gold from the international financial system? Does any gold investor who lived through the price smash of April 2013 really feel that the monetary metal resolutely follows Saville's idea of its "fundamentals"? Full Story
With OBOR, central bank, and tax cut winds at its back, GDX and the entire gold stocks sector need to be accumulated with a golden smile on any and all price weakness, in anticipation of a major reversal in US money velocity. GDX is flirting with my $23 - $18 buy zone, and the ECB on Thursday will determine whether investor buy orders get filled, or whether the price just soars shockingly higher. Obviously, if an investor has no buy orders in place, they cannot get filled. My suggestion to all gold stock enthusiasts is to take the order placement action to ensure they are smiling during the historic upturn in US money velocity! Full Story
Candidate Donald Trump was none too kind to current Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen during his 2016 campaign. However, the President’s tone with regards to Yellen and Fed policy has been softening since his election. Trump met one on one with Yellen and other top contenders last week and now appears quite open to the idea of reappointing her to another four-year term. Full Story
Expert after expert is busy proclaiming that the world is about to come to grinding halt again. They never seem to let up on pushing this sewage onto the unsuspecting masses. This is a clear example of insanity in action; mouthing the same nonsense over and over again with the desperate hope that this time the outcome will be different. The outcome will not be different this time, at least not yet. These guys should focus on writing fiction for reality seems to elude them completely. For years we have stated (and rightly so) that until the sentiment changes, this market will continue to soar higher and higher. Full Story
While David Stockman stated early this year with resolute certainty that the debt ceiling debate would blow congress up and send the nation reeling over the financial precipice, I avoided jumping on the debt-ceiling bandwagon. While I was convinced major rifts in the economy would start to show up in the summer, I was not convinced they would have anything to do with the debt ceiling debate. If there is anything you can be certain of this in endless recovery-mode economy, it is that the US will just keep pushing its bags of bonds up a hill until it can finally push no more. So, I figured another punt down the road was more likely. Full Story
As I read through the blogs and public articles on miners and the GDX, it has become quite evident that many have now turned either bearish or completely indifferent to this complex. In fact, it seems as though the number of hits being seen in the Seeking Alpha metals section has dropped dramatically over the last year. Full Story
Last week I was in Barcelona speaking at the LBMA/LPPM Precious Metals Conference, which was attended by approximately 700 metals and mining firms from all over the globe. I found the event energizing and stimulating, full of contrary views on topics ranging from macroeconomics to physical investment markets to cryptocurrencies. Full Story
News reports this week indicated that the Bank of Nova Scotia (ScotiaBank), Canada’s third largest bank, had put its precious metals operation, ScotiaMocatta, up for sale. Various sources said the unit had been for sale for a year or so and it was thought or hoped that Chinese interests might buy the business. It was also reported that the Bank of Nova Scotia would shrink the unit if no buyer could be found. The impetus for the sale was said to be a scandal involving smuggled gold from South America to the US. Somewhat ironic, and interesting, was that the sale “listing” agent was none other than JPMorgan. Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, off 1.44 percent for the week. Citigroup favors palladium in the short term, in response to pollution control, but says substitution risks prevent the bank from taking a more bullish view long term as the price of palladium is now higher than the price of platinum. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in metals and commodity markets and even authored a book in 2006 titled Gold Trading Bootcamp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce. Full Story
More and more, I'm encountering people who are simply infuriated with how our "leaders" are running (or to put it more accurately, ruining) things right now. And I share that fury. It’s perfectly normal human response to be infuriated when an outside agent hurts you, especially if the pain seems unnecessary, illogical or random. Imagine if your neighbor enjoyed setting off loud explosives at all hours of the day and night. Or if he had a habit of tailgating and brake-checking you every time he saw your car on the road. You’d been well within your rights to be infuriated. Full Story
Don’t try to make sense of the above. Instead, let’s just assume that the cryptocurrency universe will continue to expand for a while and narrow the discussion down to a single question: Are cryptocurrencies inflationary? That is, will their spread lead to higher or lower prices for the average person, and greater or lesser financial instability for the markets, and what does this mean for today’s fiat currencies? Full Story
Last week, we discussed the marginal productivity of debt. This is how much each newly-borrowed dollar adds to GDP. And ever since the interest rate began its falling trend in 1981, marginal productivity of debt has tightly correlated with interest. The lower the interest rate, the less productive additional borrowing has in fact become. Full Story
This week’s letter will be more like an Outside the Box than a Thoughts from the Frontline. I am feeling under the weather, and while I can read and move around somewhat, I am really not thinking all that well and am not up to wasting your time writing a letter that neither you nor I will be happy with. Full Story
Head of RigoBlock, CTO Gab Rigo makes his show debut, outlining his plan to facilitate every investor to achieve hedge fund-like success. RigoBlock provides a personalized hedge fund without the need for tedious / costly procedures and requirements. At ground zero in Puerto Rico Harry S. Dent Jr. offers first hand perspective on the plight of 3.4 million struggling in the wake of Maria. Harry Dent recalls a harrowing 15 hour ordeal amid Hurricane Maria as he waited out the storm in his condo. As US equities continue to break 120 year records, Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company outlines the reasons for his short position Peter offers his book, FREE to Goldseek listeners / readers - book testimonials are found at this link. Full Story
For those who may remember, October 19 was the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, the 1987 stock market crash—the day when stock markets around the world crashed in unison. The crash got underway in Hong Kong and then spread to Europe before hitting North American markets. The Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) fell 508 points that day, a decline of 22.6%. As dramatic as it was, most people probably forget the run-up that preceded the crash. The run-up got underway with a low on September 12, 1986 at 1,733.55 and didn’t top until 347 days later on August 25, 1987 at 2,746.64 for a gain of 58%. Full Story
In last weekend’s update it was pointed out that gold’s gap breakout from its steep downtrend shown on its latest 6-month chart below was probably false and that it was expected to drop back as the dollar advanced, which it duly did last week. Bearing in mind that the dollar has about completed its Head-and-Shoulders bottom, it is now clear that a parallel Head-and-Shoulders top is completing in gold as shown on the chart. This chart projects a breakdown beneath the nearby support level to be followed by a drop targeting the quite strong support in the $1200 - $1215 area. Full Story
So the bottom line is, a yield curve bottom and a rotation to a steepening environment is out there somewhere on the horizon. It will either be inflationary or deflationary. But whatever it is, it will not favor many of the best performing items of the post 2011, post-Op/Twist Goldilocks era. I am nimbly long the current asset market party (with a boat load of USD bull fund UUP and cash) and with the mature trend. But for the few looking ahead to trade dynamic changes in the yield curve and possibly even nominal long-term bond yields (again, see 1st chart above) the real party has not yet begun. Full Story
Last week we noted the likely negative impact of a sustained rebound in the US Dollar on Gold. Recent weakness in precious metals has not been much of a surprise considering the sector’s relative weakness months ago amid a weak US Dollar. While the greenback has bottomed, it has yet to push above resistance at 94. Nevertheless, Gold and in particular the gold stocks are threatening more losses even before a push higher in the greenback. It is time to be defensive and cautious. Full Story
I believe that the market will likely top out within the next week or two, and then provide us with a 30+ point pullback. And, as long as the market does not break below the 2520SPX region on that pullback, I expect it to set up a rally back up towards the 2611SPX region before a much bigger pullback takes hold into 2018. Full Story
As the Dow Jones Index hits another all-time high today, smart money is rushing to the exits. You see, smart money knows when something is too good to be true. Unfortunately for the retail investor who is suffering from acute BRAIN DAMAGE, they are doing quite the opposite. As institutions sellout on each new market price rise, retail investors are happily buying… hand over fist. Full Story
The content on this site is protected
by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com
and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any
information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com.
This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other
features found on the site. Please contact
us for any further information.
Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer
The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics,
analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction
and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained
on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC,
is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be
liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon
the information provided herein.
