By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 26 June, 2009
As we thought it would, gold has fallen back to the low $900’s and begun rising again. Should we be buying? If only life was so simple and we could say to you buy at this price and sell at that price. If we did you can be sure the price would not quite reach the height nor reach the low price. It would almost reach there or overshoot leaving you wrong footed, as most people are. So what do we do? Full Story
By: The Gold Report with Charles Oliver and Jamie Horvat - 26 June, 2009
On the global stage of currency devaluation and debasement, the reasons for owning gold seem obvious. But have you ever stopped to consider the derivative market? According to Charles Oliver and Jamie Horvat, both senior portfolio managers at Sprott Asset Management, "The impact of the derivatives has yet to express itself." In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Charles and Jamie explain how gold will react in the New Financial (dis)Order. Both foresee $2,000 gold in the next three years and, ultimately, "significant" hyperinflation on a global scale over the next decade. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. - 26 June, 2009
Misguided government policies have already dealt vicious body blows to our economy, but that hasn't stopped politicians this week from launching two new kicks to the groin: a national health insurance plan and a carbon emissions regulation system called “cap and trade.” Even if these plans could achieve their desired ends, which is highly unlikely, I would have hoped Washington would refrain from throwing more monkey wrenches into the economy until it shows some signs of resurgence. The last thing we need right now is to further encumber our economy with higher taxes and additional regulations. Full Story
Inflation is defined as an increase in the money supply and not as many economists falsely refer to it as an increase in the cost of goods. The price increase is a direct result of inflation, but it is not the definition but just a symptom of inflation. If one looks at the above two charts one immediately spots how dramatically the money supply has risen in the last 12 months. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 26 June, 2009
Drug makers recently announced an $80 billion concession for President Obama’s health plan. In all likelihood, when people first think about lower profits for drug companies they will view the initiative positively with the belief that lower prices for consumers should benefit society. However, in the long run the government’s growing influence over another segment of the private sector will prove devastating for the drug companies by stifling future drug discovery. Full Story
In the near-century since 1913, (the year the U.S. Federal Reserve was established) the World’s Reserve Currency, the U.S. Dollar, has lost at least 96% of its purchasing power. Among the many casualties of this Massive Devaluation are Retirees, Investors, and Savers who “stored”, they thought, the fruits of their labors in U.S. Dollar (i.e. U.S. Federal Reserve Note) denominated paper “Assets”. Full Story
"STOCKS SEESAW as savings rate jumps," said the AP on Friday, amending its earlier "Stocks decline" headline to try and fit the moves to the news, rather than the other way round. Either way, reckon the newswires, "Investors are nervous because consumers are saving more than they're spending." Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 26 June, 2009
Despite gold and silver consolidating in June, investment demand for these precious metals remains robust. This is evidenced by continuing growth in the bullion holdings of the leading precious-metals exchange-traded funds. Both GLD’s and SLV’s physical metals held in trust for investors have edged up to new all-time record highs this month! Full Story
The following is an excerpt from the June issue of The Morgan Report. Although I recently wrote about the silver as money issue, many precious metals investors are rather under informed about some aspects of the silver market. Our readers have been kept up to date about the thrust for getting Mexico and other Latin countries to use silver along with their paper currencies. Full Story
The Goldsmiths, Part XXIX, addressed the inflation problem and how the American public is lied to and deceived by the government statisticians who compile the Consumer and Producer Price Indices. One of the tactics used by this dishonest and deceptive crowd is to claim that price increases are due to qualitative improvements. In this reasoning, if something goes up, the government merely claims that the price increase was due to improvements in the product and not inflation. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 26 June, 2009
I had been getting ready for the release of the latest totals of how much credit the damned Federal Reserve had created in the last week, and I am afraid that I overdid it a little. Prying open one bloodshot eye with a numbed finger, I looked at the number and saw that they had created another $29.4 billion in new credit last week! Which wasn’t all that much, in comparison to the records of new money they created in the last year! Full Story
The short-squeeze mania that sent stocks blithely higher yesterday reminded us that shares are likely to remain erratically buoyant at least until the end of the second quarter. “Rebalancing” has been the name of the game since the bear rally began in early March, and portfolio managers are unlikely to alter their allocation strategy with less than a week to go before they get their final “grades” for the quarter. Full Story
By: Bill Bonner, The Daily Reckoning - 25 June, 2009
Progress is mixed. US consumers seem to have straightened up pretty fast. After the crash, they went into therapy and rediscovered their inner squirrel. Now, according to news and anecdotal reports, they’re saving all the cash they can. Savings rates, which had been near zero, are now bouncing up towards 5%. Full Story
By: Louis James, Senior Editor, International Speculator - 25 June, 2009
Before last fall’s crash, our economic views here at Casey Research were regarded by many in the mainstream as being extreme and alarmist. Unfortunately, they were also another thing: correct. Full Story
The Seasonal Gold Chart above displays gold price movement in two ways. It goes back 15-years to get a more current average of prices and back 35-years showing a longer averaged time frame. Historically speaking, prices trends are fairly erratic in summer months. It’s at the end of summer that uptrends often grab hold. Full Story
By: The Energy Report and Clint Cox - 25 June, 2009
Why all the buzz about rare earths elements (REEs)? In this exclusive Energy Report interview, industry expert Clint Cox, The Anchor House, tells how he separates the hype from reality, and what a challenging and complex market it is. Full Story
I like Barack Obama. I like his sincerity, his thoughtfulness, his compassion, and his humanitarian priority. I like his calm resolve, and his humility. But I don’t think he’s going to succeed in staunching the hemorrhaging of the global economy that is now approaching all published definitions of “depression”. Full Story
China's interest in the yellow metal will greatly alter the supply/demand fundamentals of the gold market; There will be significant impacts on the international mining industry; China's successful acquisition as proposed is instrumental in raising the Yuan to a stronger position as an international reserve currency. Also included is an exclusive gold related cartoon by Ed Stein, formerly of the Rocky Mountain News. Full Story
There are several different monetary aggregates used to measure a nation's money supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought of as forming a continuum from most liquid (money as a means of exchange) to the least liquid (money as a store of value). Full Story
News of Goldman’s Sachs’ triumph arrived when Reuter’s newswire reported on June 22, 2009: “Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses”. At a time when the US is struggling with the greatest financial crisis since the 1930s, Goldman Sachs has triumphantly weathered the crisis. That should be no surprise for Goldman Sachs created the crisis in the first place. Full Story
The entire presumption of the Obama-proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency is that banks and mortgage companies are under-regulated by the state. This is why the financial meltdown took place – never mind that the federal regulatory Gosplan includes tens of thousands of pages purporting to regulate the mortgage industry alone. Full Story
In the past commodity trading was only available to trader with large accounts, high risk tolerance and a good understanding of how the futures market works. During the past 7 years with commodities making incredible moves and gaining attention from the media, several exchange traded funds (ETF’s) have been created allowing everyone to take advantage of the commodity market. Full Story
The markets displayed disturbing symptoms of Fed-itis yesterday, spasming up and down even though the central bank did nothing remotely interesting, let alone earth-shattering. Monetary policy was left unchanged, which is the only thing that could have happened. To say the markets overreacted begs for an explanation as to why. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 24 June, 2009
While corporate earnings fell by some 38 percent in the first quarter, a dismal performance by just about anyone's reckoning, Wall Street took heart that the results were not as bad as the consensus estimates had predicted. Straws were frantically grasped. Buoyed by the resulting talk of “green shoots” and the hope of a relatively quick economic recovery, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 40% from its lows. Full Story
SO DOES THE PRICE OF GOLD rise or fall in a deflation? Hint: It's a trick question, already tripping up plenty of would-be advisors. Because gold must fall during deflation, since it rose during the '70s inflation. Right? Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 24 June, 2009
This idea of a non-bank currency issued directly by a government free of any interest burden is along the lines of what Presidents Lincoln and Kennedy did, and tried to do, respectively, for the US. Their boldness in promoting the welfare of US citizens cost them their lives. They did not want to become interest slaves to a private national bank, and chose to issue our own official currency directly from our Treasury Department free of the interest burden imposed by a privately owned, debt-based, European-style fractional reserve banking system, which is what our Founding Fathers fought a war to free themselves, and their posterity, from. Full Story
Below is a weekly line chart of Gold. Each data point is the closing price on Friday. There are two main supports. The first is at about $880 where the 40-week and 80-week moving averages reside. Should that area break then look for a bottom close to $800. There is a lot of support filling in towards $800. My thinking is that the market will trade in similar fashion (triangle) to what we saw in 2005 and 2007. Full Story
Inflation is dead – long live inflation! We hear about the threat of hyperinflation in the media – is this for real, can it happen in the U.S.? Are we hyping up the word inflation, is it an inflationary play of words to grab attention to discuss the threat of hyperinflation? Let’s deflate the hype and put inflation where it belongs… at the forefront of your concerns. Full Story
One piece of information easily available to investors is the insider activity which we always factor into our decision making process. Frequently we see articles on the merits of insider buying but rarely is there much discussion on insider selling so let us give you our spin on this subject. Full Story
Congress calls for the Tea Parties to stand up!The Federal Reserve is out of control just like our government,the house has 237 supporters,now we are waiting on Nancy Pelosi to do her job and bring it to a vote. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 24 June, 2009
In Barron’s this week, they had a big notice, labeled “Divisor Change” pasted onto the chart of the Dow Jones Industrials Average, which leads off their Market Laboratory section. The notice was necessary since General Motors and Citigroup were taken out of the DJI index, while Cisco Systems and Travelers were added, and a difference in their capitalizations means that there must be a divisor change so that the index itself would not change as a result of the substitution. The new divisor is 0.132319125, which is different than the old divisor, which was 0.125552709. Full Story
It takes some getting used to whenever the phrase “flight to quality” pops up in print or on the business shows these days. Supposedly, that is what has been driving Treasury Bond prices sharply higher since June 11, when futures contracts on 30-Year U.S. Treasurys bottomed at 111^21. That equates to a yield of about 4.84 percent. Yesterday the same contract settled at 117^11, so eager were buyers, evidently, to lock in 30-year rates of around 4.37 percent. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and David Morgan - 23 June, 2009
David Morgan, whose interest in silver dates to the tender age of 11, returns to The Gold Report today to discuss the latest buzz about his favorite subject. One of the world's leading authorities on silver as a commodity, an investment, a safe haven and an increasingly important manufacturing metal, he expects this year's stronger-than-anticipated late spring climb to lose momentum before the end of the month. Full Story
This article comes as a result of recent conversations with my friend and mentor Izzy Friedman. Our discussions on silver go back decades, to the mid-1980’s. Some may marvel at how two grown men can debate such an apparent narrow issue on almost a daily basis for 25 years. What could we possibly find new to talk about? The truth is that not only do we find new things, the debate oftentimes becomes quite heated. Why this intense continued interest in this metal? Full Story
As we move through June, markets look less and less decisive about the medium term trend. Large cap indices have flattened out and look like they are slowly rolling over. All the commentary about how large the bounce has been off the March lows belies the fact that most of the bigger bourses really haven’t gone anywhere since early May. Full Story
China’s recent veiled threats towards the establishment have been taken to heart. As China announced increased gold reserves from 600 to 1,054 tonnes it was an obvious warning. Initially I thought it was a direct threat against the ocean of treasuries being issued, but I think I have a clearer answer now. China wants the IMF’s gold! Full Story
What is price? Sure it is the ‘amount of money expected, required, or given in payment for something.’ But even that definition is too broad as it begs the question of expected or required by whom? Value, utility and price are all subject to individual human action and therefore the price of something is primordially chaotic. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 23 June, 2009
In a semi-free country such as the US there are two prerequisites for a peace-time economic depression, where a depression is defined as a period of 5-10 years or longer of economic stagnation or outright contraction. The first is a massive expansion of credit based on fractional reserve banking (supported, nowadays, by a powerful central bank), and the second is a far-reaching attempt by the government to prevent the corrective process from running its natural course after the credit bubble has burst. Full Story
In the last email update on 6/10, I expected further weakness in gold and silver with a likely test of support at $915-$920 for gold and $13.60-$13.75 for silver. Those levels were reached today. It is a little early to call this a bottom, although plenty of other analysts are very bullish now. Gold and silver are now trading near the 50 day moving average, which may provide support. Full Story
The 2008 stock market meltdown brought panic and forced liquidation to all market sectors and especially junior resource shares (- 58.2% on average) and their associated warrants (-80.1%). Shares of companies that had a solid foundation for development, production and growth were unceremoniously dumped along with those more numerous juniors that had little more than hopes centered on grass roots exploration prospects. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 23 June, 2009
From their spending habits, an economic collapse seems to be the goal of Congress and this administration. Washington spends with impunity domestically, bailing out and nationalizing everything they can get their hands on, and the foreign aid and IMF funding in this bill can rightly be called an international bailout! Full Story
A few weeks ago the gold rush was back on. Inflation fears were rising. Yields on treasury bonds were rising. Gold was making another run at $1,000. Leading the headlines though and sparking the most interest was hedge fund manager John Paulson and his big bets on gold and gold stocks. Full Story
Perhaps we should establish an official day of mourning for the loss of independent thinking now so widespread among today’s journalists. In the U.S., independent journalism has died. Most of the reporting media has now become the official apparatchik of the Obama Regime. With one national network moving into the White House for daily supervision, all pretense of independence has been lost. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 23 June, 2009
Minyanville.com had the headline, “Velocity of Money Comes to a Standstill.” The report starts off with the news that “Current consumption, which at $8.2 trillion is around 70% of GDP, has fallen $150 billion from last year,” and that investment, which represents things like building factories, is $1.3 trillion or 11% of GDP, and down 23.3% from last year.” Full Story
A few more days like yesterday, and bears could be pardoned for feeling a little cocky. By simply keeping their cool Sunday night, they left DaBoyz with precious little buying power when stocks began to trade Monday morning. The result was a 200-point decline to start the week. That’s even worse than last Monday’s step-step-stumble out of the gate, which primed the Dow Industrials for a 187-point decline that day. Full Story
Before glancing at the chart below, if you had to pick the month with the weakest average gold price, which would you select?
In our current 8-year bull market, June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy. Full Story
It’s no secret, of course, that small-denomination bullion is hard to come by and gun sales are way up, but finding out first-hand that this stuff is unavailable brings home the reality of the situation, which is that the social mood is growing darker. On the surface everything looks normal; no one is protesting in the streets, the trash is getting picked up, and elections are as orderly as ever. But the market is quietly reallocating resources as individuals insure against a systemic breakdown. Hope those Krugerrands come soon. Full Story
It’s no secret the governments and central banks of the world have opened up the monetary floodgates to reinflate the global economy.
The United States has been leading the way. The Federal Reserve alone has committed more than a trillion dollars to monetizing the ballooning U.S. government deficit. Also, it has extended loans and guaranteed debt to the tune of $13 trillion. Most other countries have followed suit. Full Story
Will history repeat in terms of the widely followed stock market comparisons that many now put against present conditions. As you may know, often, when a system that is used to forecast financial markets becomes too popular, changes in outcomes occur despite previously tight correlations. And it could be argued we are at such a juncture now, as new services are cropping up everywhere in this regard. Full Story
By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors - 22 June, 2009
Gold stocks are among the most volatile asset classes, but old and new research shows that their judicious use can enhance investor returns without adding portfolio risk. Full Story
In my previous Premium Update I have emphasized the meaning of sentiment and how one can analyze it to gain advantage over other market participants. I have received very positive feedback after posting it, so I decided to include a part of this week’s update dedicated to sentiment also into the publicly available free commentary. Full Story
So, who owns the Federal Reserve? Well, it certainly is not the US government, as many would suppose. In fact, I have found that quite a few - including myself last year - who are roughly aware of how the FED works but believe that the owners of the FED is a secret. Well, it is not. Full Story
Precious metals like silver and gold have pulled back to support levels and trending sideways. This week will be interested as we watch prices bounce or breakdown. The energy sector looks be breaking down with more power as the bullish percent index for energy stocks dropped substantially last week. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 22 June, 2009
If you are one of those people who thinks that the Earth revolves around the sun and that the sun has important implications for life on earth, then I know that you are not a government employee, as everyone from the president, to the Congress, right on down to the municipal employee whose miserable job it is to clean up the filthy toilets after the government employees have messed them up, all think that they can overcome any obstacle – man-made, natural or wrath of a supernatural force – if only given more money in their salaries and budgets. Full Story
hikes that will at best postpone the nation’s day of bankruptcy, we are all hard-pressed at this point to see a way to a happy ending. Lo, along comes an anonymous e-mail that describes a way to solve everyone’s debt problems painlessly. Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & Market Weatherman Forecast. Spotlight Stock Picks with big dividends. The International Forecaster and Host Chris Waltzek answer listeners' questions. 2nd Hour: -Peter Schiff,Euro Pacific Capital Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 21 June, 2009
The gold price average over the last year has risen to close to the current price. This means that the gold sales income of the mining companies has persisted for long-enough for the mining companies to have income available for payout to shareholders or to improve their Balance Sheet. This makes mining companies with their leverage to the gold price more attractive than the metal itself, currently. Full Story
Gold broke down and went into decline, as predicted in the last update posted early this month. At that time our maximum downside target was the strong support in the $880 area, but now there are strong signs that the decline has either run its course, or is close to having done so, and that a breakout to new highs may be close at hand. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 21 June, 2009
Since hyperinflation is clearly in our future, let's talk about what inflation really is, what causes it, what the different degrees or levels of inflation are, and what it takes to put a stop to inflation? Full Story
Back in 1973, gold standard advocate John Exter made a phrase famous in hard-money circles: "Pushing on a string." Exter argued that prices of all assets except gold (he ignored silver) would someday collapse because of the pyramiding of debt. Banks would eventually cease to lend, out of fear of default. That would cause the default. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 21 June, 2009
I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is. And yet - and yet! - I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. Full Story
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