Doing the right thing is hard for both individuals and their governments. Name the goal – maintaining a healthy weight, paying off high-interest credit cards, keeping debt-to-GDP at reasonable levels, whatever – and with each missed deadline or broken promise success recedes further into the distance. And the temptation grows to just give up and pretend that the goal never really mattered. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 26 May, 2017
The silver miners’ stocks have been slowly grinding higher this year, but it’s been a volatile ride. This sector’s alternating surges and plunges have spawned outsized swings in sentiment, really distorting investors’ perceptions of the major silver miners. But once a quarter earnings season arrives, revealing their hard fundamental realities which dispel the obscuring sentiment fogs. The silver miners reported a solid Q1. Full Story
I have always considered sales of modern gold and silver bullion coins a bellwether on the general health of the global precious metals market. In reality, though, bullion coin sales comprise only a very small portion of the physical gold and silver markets. According to the World Gold Council, modern gold coins make up only about 13% of investment demand and a little less than 5% of overall demand.* Yet, as is often the case in statistical inquiry, it is the small and often unobserved, sometimes even ignored, that can accurately tell the larger story – particularly when it reflects the net effect of human action within the greater economy and financial markets. Full Story
The latest FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed may start decreasing its balance sheet later this year. There are many unknowns about this process, so we invite you to read our today’s article about the unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet and find out how it could affect the gold market. Full Story
When you remove the influence of FANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Google) by giving every company in the index equal weighting, you find that the market has yet to reclaim its former peak May peak. Why does this matter? Because ALL market rigs, no matter how clever, ultimately fail. And when they do, the failure can be MASSIVE. Full Story
The thickness of intellectual dishonesty amongst pundits and analysts in this stock market needs a power-saw to be cut through. And nothing presents this perspective more clearly than the certain belief in the power of central banks to prop up our market. In fact, this past week, we even heard from Asher Edelman, as quoted on ZeroHedge, that he has 'no doubt' that the Plunge Protection Team - of which the US Central Bank is a member - is behind the stock market's rally this year. Full Story
Global markets have steadily been adding renewables such as wind and solar to their energy mix for several years now, but according to a handful of new reports, 2016 might have been the tipping point. Not only did the world add a record level of renewable energy capacity last year, but it did so at a significantly lower cost compared to 2015. In the U.S., wind and solar both had a knockout year, the latter of which ranked number one in terms of new capacity growth, ahead of fossil fuels. Full Story
John Scurci of Corona Capital Management makes his show debut. As Partner and Portfolio Manager, the JP Morgan veteran of Wall Street, utilizes decades of experience to better guide investment decisions. John Scurci warns that the US currency may be much less stable than most investors realize. The actual intrinsic value could be considerably lower than anticipated by most investment models. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 26 May, 2017
The good thing through it all, is that more and more of the investing public is waking up to the PRECIOUS METALS. I can see it through the visitor data on my site. Lastly, while the crypto-currencies are the new RAGE and investment FAD today, I would kindly like to remind everyone, Gold and Silver have been stores of wealth for 2,000+ years. I don’t have anything negative to say about owning crypto-currencies, but I believe owning physical precious metals will be some of the safest assets to own, when the U.S.A. Titanic finally sinks. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 26 May, 2017
Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, the most prominent “Austrian” economists of the time, anticipated the 1929 stock market crash and correctly predicted the dire consequences of government attempts to artificially stimulate economic growth in the aftermath of the crash. John Maynard Keynes, on the other hand, was totally blindsided by the stock market crash and the economic disaster of the early 1930s. And yet, Keynes’s theories gained enormous popularity during the 1930s whereas the work of Mises and Hayek was largely ignored. Why was it so? Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 25 May, 2017
When we hear commentary on why the gold price has moved, we usually hear of U.S. economic or political factors and a move in the U.S. Dollar. Most times these do not precipitate the buying of physical gold. What they do do, is to spur the buying or selling of futures or Options on the COMEX gold market. Many commentators attribute moves in the physical gold price to moves on COMEX. Full Story
There is a well-worn conundrum told about a stranger, who walks into the hotel in a remote, sleepy village in Mexico, and reserves a room for the night, paying 1,000 pesos in advance. The innkeeper rejoices at this unexpected turn of events, for the village is remote, few people have any reason to go there, and there is very little money. The innkeeper goes to the village butcher, to whom he owes 1,000 pesos, and discharges his debt. Full Story
It is possible we will enjoy a century of global peace, return to honest money, eliminate the overhanging debt, balance the budget, and – insert your favorite fantasy here! Otherwise, bet on Option B – buy gold and silver bullion and store it outside the banking system. Prices will rise substantially as all fiat currencies are devalued further. Full Story
Now, while I can point to specific events which have confounded those looking for a market "crash," such as the French terrorist attacks, or Brexit, or the Trump election, it seems people simply do not learn their lessons that you cannot glean market direction from news. While it may act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news will not provide you a directional bias, and, many times, will even have you looking the wrong way. Full Story
With US equities at a record zenith, Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company advises avoiding paper assets, preferring the precious metals. Amid the cryptocurrency revolution where Bitcoin and competing digital currencies can climb 100s of percent, $100 invested in 2011 is worth millions. Should investors be concerned by the prospect of related blockchain exploits, and zero-days could trigger a new PMs "gold rush?" Full Story
The following is not simply a list of negative risks to the economy but a list of of serious economic conditions that are already placing drought-like pressures on the overall economy. This list doesn’t include the long-term structural problems with the economy, such as its high debt burden, but just the forces that have risen against it this year. Full Story
When prices are low, production falls. As new supplies diminish, the market tightens and prices move higher. The higher prices incentivize producers to invest in production capacity and increase output. Eventually, the market becomes oversupplied, prices fall, and the cycle starts all over again. Of course, this is a simplified model of what drives commodity cycles. Booms and busts can be amplified and extended by speculators, by unexpected shifts in demand, or even by interventions from central banks and governments. Full Story
There is no doubt that the US dollar looks bad right now after breaking below the bottom rail of its 5 point falling wedge last week. Before I give up totally on the US dollar there is one thing I’m going to look for first. When all else fails I like to go back to the initial pattern which was a sideways trading range or a rectangle pattern. I’ve seen in the past that when you have a nice tight rectangle with a breakout above the top rail, there can be one very big shakeout move where the price action will decline back to the center mid dashed line, where final support may reside. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 25 May, 2017
Something changed in the silver market in May as U.S. Silver Eagle sales have surged compared to the previous month. This is quite interesting as precious metals sales and sentiment have declined in the West, especially in the United States, ever since Donald Trump was elected President. Many precious metals investors thought that if Trump was elected, it would have been very positive for the gold and silver market. Unfortunately, it seems as if the opposite was (is) the case. Not only has demand for precious metals declined considerably in 2017 versus last year, so has sales of guns, ammo and survival food-supplies. Full Story
Zillionaire Asher Edelman was quoted on ZeroHedge the other day saying he has ‘no doubt’ that the Plunge Protection Team is behind the stock market’s steep rally since the election. With all due respect for Mr. Edelman and others who believe this, it is conspiracist poppycock. Yes, the Plunge Protection Team, which is officially known as the Working Group on Financial Markets, does exist, having been created under President Reagan. Full Story
The USMilitary-industrial complex has come to the rescue of USEconomy with the massive arms sale to the world's biggest purchaser of weapons, namely Saudi Arabia. Beyond the glitz and royal pageantry, President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia in all likelihood had a main purpose to sell weapons, and to complete a gigantic $350 billion over the next decade. It will have weapon orders filled over time. In turn, the Saudi Royals have promised to invest $billions in the United States as well and to make other commitments designed to placate Trump. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 24 May, 2017
Yes, that market manipulation should be discussed at such length by a mainstream financial news organization is remarkable progress. But while at the conclusion of the interview with Asher a member of the CNBC panel wonders where records of the PPT's interventions might be found, there is no suggestion that financial journalists should investigate possible interventions. Full Story
Sound money advocates rejoiced today as House Bill 2014 became the law in Arizona. HB 2014, which passed in the Arizona state Senate on May 10th by a margin of 16-13, removes all income taxation of precious metals coins at the state level. Full Story
I predict it’s going to be a boring summer for stocks. Price will just churn sideways for the next 2-3 months and allow the long term averages time to “catch up”. Full Story
Based upon this modified count, I am still in the camp of seeing much further downside in the coming weeks, and this count can still support a strong c-wave down to the 2285-2330SPX region. Moreover, as I have noted before, the IWM provides more evidence that the downside has potentially not yet completed. Full Story
Buyers were repelled today by the 1263.80 ‘secondary’ pivot shown, failing badly in their attempt to achieve the 1269.80 rally target that had looked so promising at Monday’s close. The chart will likely have something to say about ‘Matt’s rule,’ whereby a stall exactly at the secondary pivot usually proves fatal to the minor trend. In this case, according to Matt, a regular in the Rick’s Picks chat room who trades mostly Silver, it would imply more slippage to beneath the 1245.70 point ‘C’ low. Full Story
Since Chinese New Year buying peaked in February, gold has essentially traded sideways with a mild upside bias. Here’s why: Indian dealers are waiting for the government to announce the GST rate for gold, and it’s too early for them to begin stocking up for Diwali. So, the price discovery ball is now in the US central bank’s court. I’ll dare to suggest that most gold market investors don’t fully understand the relationship between interest rates, money velocity, and gold. Full Story
According to Al Gore if we would all pony up US$15,000,000,000,000.00 he and his cronies will save us from ourselves. Gore’s Energy Transitions Commission’s (ETC) stated goal is net zero carbon emissions by 2050 to keep global temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius by 2100. To this scribbler and question asker net zero carbon emissions costing $15T to accomplish seems like a radical environmental vision and a steep price for us to pay for it. Full Story
On the chart, I have marked two fractals (1 to 3). Both fractals exist in similar conditions – relative to the relevant Dow/Gold ratio peaks (1966 and 1999), as well as Dow peaks. Both fractals span over the period of the first phase of the silver bull market during the 70s and the current era (2001 to 2017), respectively. If the comparison is justified, then the US Dollar index will fall significantly during the coming months. Given the fact that silver has traditionally had its strong rallies during times when the US Dollar Index was falling, this bodes well for a silver rally. Full Story
When financial Armageddon arrives, it can hit in a flash like a dangerous rogue wave — the kind that rises up when two big waves from different storms intersect and merge into a single wave big enough to capsize a ship. The global Wannacry warware attack and endless waves of Trump turbulence came together with just such damaging synergy last week, knocking the top off the Trump rally. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 23 May, 2017
Western central banks conspired about controlling the gold price in the early 1980s because they realized that gold was an indicator of inflation and its rise helped push commodity prices up, according to the second set of archival documents published today by gold researcher Ronan Manly. But, the documents show, the central bankers also sought to facilitate the flow of low-priced gold to oil-producing countries in exchange for their continuing to supply oil to the West at low prices. Full Story
This is Part 2 of a two-part series. The series focuses on collusive discussions and meetings that took place between the world’s most powerful central bankers in late 1979 and 1980 in an attempt to launch a central bank Gold Pool cartel to manipulate and control the free market price of gold. The meetings centered around the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basle, Switzerland. Full Story
Well, before we get into other topics such as the Silver Institute's latest report on the silver market and also the article you wrote for us recently on digital currencies, crypto-currencies, and so forth, I first want to have you set the stage here on where we are and where we've been in the metals markets. The year got off to a good start in gold and silver and then in April, we saw the typical smack down on the futures markets. Silver, for instance, gave back nearly all of its gains during an unprecedented 16-day losing streak and fell about 12% over that period. Full Story
This letter and next week’s will be two of the most important I’ve ever written. They will set out my philosophy about how we have to invest in the coming days and years. They are the result of my years of actually working with clients and money managers and thinking about the economic and particularly the macroeconomic world. Because of some of the developments I will be discussing, I think the future is likely to be extremely challenging for traditional portfolio allocation models. Full Story
Europe is back on the map. That was one of the main takeaways last week from the SkyBridge Alternatives (SALT) hedge fund conference in Las Vegas, where $3 trillion in assets was represented. Speaker after speaker touted European equities for their attractive valuations and as a means to diversify away from the volatile American market in light of rising U.S. geopolitical risk. France’s election of centrist Emmanuel Macron over far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen this month has especially eased investors’ fears that antiestablishment forces would challenge the integrity of the European Union (EU). Full Story
The center of the universe appears to remain in Washington. Following the firing of FBI Director James Comey, an event that was almost without precedent, and, what’s worse, made personal by the President, the talk in Washington circles is actually turning to impeachment. The basis is that the firing of FBI Director James Comey was obstruction of justice given the investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign. With Comey sidelined, the justice department appointed former FBI director Robert S. Mueller III to serve as special counsel and lead the investigation into Russian meddling. Full Story
Donald Trump has been dogged by efforts to undermine his presidency since winning the election in November. Deep State operators and political partisans have been working around the clock to hang a scandal around the president’s neck large enough to ruin him. If markets are any indication, they got some help last week from former FBI director James Comey. Comey’s leaked memo asserting the president tried to interfere with the investigation of Michael Flynn, the former National Security Advisor, prompted a selloff in stocks and a boost in precious metals. Full Story
As explained by Paul Craig Roberts, and unbeknownst to most, prior to the French election, and before Trump fired Comey, US neoconsevatives (neocons) in Washington threatened a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Russia – and apparently they are serious. Serious – no way right? They can’t be that crazy. Apparently such an assumption would be wrong – because they are – where they believe they can go overseas – nuke Russia (North Korea -- anybody?) – and nothing will happen to them coddled comfortably in North America. Full Story
Well, I suppose you could make the case that these most recent selloffs have washed out any "excess Speculator bullishness" that might have been present a few weeks ago. The CoT could also imply that upside potential now outweighs downside risk. However, for the reasons listed back at the beginning of this post, no one should ever make a trading or physical purchase decision based upon CoT info alone. Full Story
We are witnessing a startling breakdown in market breadth. It is worse than both prior to the 1987 and 2000 market draw downs. Similar to the Dotcom Bubble when it finally burst in 2000, it is being held up by a hand full of stocks which were referred to in 2000 as the "Generals". Today we are experiencing the same complacent phenomenon as in prior major market draw-downs with the only differentiation being a different set of distracting "Generals" but with just as alluring investor attraction. Full Story
Gold traders and analysts are split on their outlook for gold, reports Bloomberg, with 12 bearish, three bullish and four neutral this week. On May 16 the yellow metal advanced for a fourth day, with Kotak Commodities Services saying gold is supported by “mixed U.S. economic data, weakness in the U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about Trump’s policy actions.” On the prior Friday, consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 1.9 percent year-over-year for April, the least since 2015, while retail sales were also weaker, reports Bloomberg. Full Story
The “smart money” is flashing a signal that the US economy and ultimately the financial system, are in serious trouble. CNBC and other media outlets like to focus on stocks because they tend to be more volatile and therefore more exciting. But BONDS are the “smart money” for the financial system. The Bond market is larger, more liquid and involves more sophisticated investors than stocks. As such it usually picks up on major issues much earlier. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 22 May, 2017
A reasonable definition of a bull market must be practical. This means that it must take into account the fact that what people really want from an investment is an increase in purchasing power, not just an increase in price. Figuring out whether or not an investment is in a bull market is therefore not as straightforward as observing its long-term trend in nominal currency terms. Full Story
Aside from being wrong as a matter of fact, it is an example of dollar thinking. It comes from the belief that gold is to be sold. That is not historically how people thought about it. Gold is money and those who have it should seek to earn a return on it, not sell it. Full Story
Stocks are like living things, they are born, grow, mature, age and decline and then die, or are reborn, which reflects the fact that the companies on which they are based do likewise. This should not be so surprising since companies are comprised of people. Whole industries come and go as a result of the evolution of technology and changing fashions. A simple example of this is provided by the music industry, where first you had vinyl, then cassettes, then CDs and now the industry is moving to downloads, with vinyl making a niche comeback. Full Story
I posted a 2390.25 rally target in the chat room Friday midway through the session, but the futures never quite got there. At the closing bell, they had failed in this relatively modest task by 2.25 points. In retrospect, as the chart makes clear, buyers felt no urgency about taking on the 2388.75 peak where Wednesday’s refreshing but unfortunately short-lived dive commenced. Looking just ahead, I’ll go out on a limb with a prediction that because short-covering bears have been temporarily squeezed for all they’re worth, they will be unable to furnish sufficient buying power on Monday to push the broad averages into new record territory. Full Story
Economist Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, returns with a new FREE book: You're Hired! With over $220 in national debt, if 10% of the GDP were directed to paying of the debt, it would still require an infinite number of years. Dr. Paul Wilmott from the quantitative finance website, Wilmott.com returns with comments on his magnum opus, endorsed by the legendary Nassim Taleb. The duo engage in an enthralling discussion on the true nature of financial risk versus the expected risk predicted by traditional econometric models. Full Story
In the minds of many investors, the election victory of Donald J. Trump to the United States Presidency was nothing short of a miracle. Following his shocking victory, expectations were high that Trump would, with the help of Congress, fulfill his promises of tax reform and infrastructure spending. The lifting of the heavy penalties associated with Obamacare was another hope that investors cherished. Many hailed his victory by declaring that it was “morning in America” again. But after only six months since the election, Trump's presidency has hit a potentially fatal obstacle and he now faces the growing possibility of impeachment. Full Story
Finally, we move on to the much obsessed over, much cheer-led gold sector. By that I mean gold, gold stocks and the item that should lead the complex, silver. Again, if not for the fact that this article needs to stay within reasonable length and that the fine technical and fundamental details we manage should be reserved for NFTRH subscribers, I’d go on and on here because I think this could be the next big macro play; the next destination for funds that want to anticipate a new bull market and ride it. Full Story
The precious metals complex rebounded as expected after becoming very oversold just a few weeks ago. The rebound has been aided by weakness in the US Dollar, which plunged roughly 2% over several days. However, upon further inspection Gold’s rebound has been entirely dollar-centric. Gold has remained weak in real terms and strength in the gold stocks and Silver has been rather muted. In short, the lack of much stronger performance in the face of US Dollar weakness bodes for increasing downside risk over the near term. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 21 May, 2017
The U.S. economy and markets are now the BIGGEST BUBBLES in history. In 2000, we experienced the Tech Bubble. In 2008, we suffered both a Stock Market and Housing Bubble. However, today… we are in the “EVERYTHING BUBBLE.” This is an excellent video presentation by Mike Maloney at GoldSilver.com. Mike puts together some of the best quality videos in the precious metals industry. This one is a MUST SEE. Full Story
Stocks took a major hit, on heavy volume selling early in the week, that foretold more selling to come. It didn’t come. Instead, we ripped back higher. We’re not yet out of the weakness woods, but heavy volume on the move higher into the end of the week is good action to be sure. Full Story
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