HARD TO SAY what all the tax-payer cash thrown at US housing will do to home prices. Because at first glance, the $14 billion of aid (aka meddling) apportioned on Friday seems set to both inflate and depress prices. Full Story
There are 7 stages to executing a successful sting operation. Whether this is the modus operandi behind the Sultans of Swap operating in the $605 Trillion OTC Derivatives market or just simple coincidence, I will leave it to you shrewd reader to determine. The seven stages do however offer us an instructive theater guide to better understand these murky instruments called Interest Rate Swaps. Full Story
As we near the APEX of the countertrend rallies in many markets and economies, the air is full of HIGHLY-COMBUSTIBLE situations just waiting for someone to light the MATCH. The full debacle of the next leg down in developed world economies is at the doorstep. What event will act as catalyst is unknowable, and the list of candidates is mountainous. Corruption and criminality within the public sectors, crony capitalists and banksters set the stage for an explosive cocktail, are set to immolate the private sectors that still produce wealth and the public at large. Full Story
By: Daniel Aaronson and Lee Markowitz - 26 March, 2010
Despite the ongoing stock market rally, we remain steadfast in our view that this continues to be one of the greatest bear market rallies of all time. The most common arguments for continuing to invest in stocks are that the economy is exhibiting growth without inflation (“goldilocks") or that the Federal Reserve will destroy the purchasing power of the US Dollar (“cash is trash”). Full Story
Summing up, the USD Index moved to its resistance level after having rallied strongly. This rally caused gold to move lower, but its decline was relatively small. This is bullish for PMs in two ways. Full Story
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence LLC - 26 March, 2010
Among all commodities stocks, no group is as alluring and dangerous as junior gold stocks. The vast majority of these small companies are explorers, having never made a single dollar in sales. Yet investors and speculators still flock to them. Junior golds far outnumber juniors in every other commodity combined. Full Story
On March 23, 2010, GATA Director Adrian Douglas was contacted by a whistleblower by the name of Andrew Maguire. Maguire is a metals trader in London. He has been told first-hand by traders working for JPMorganChase that JPMorganChase manipulates the precious metals markets, and they have bragged to how they make money doing so. Full Story
One of the most interesting terms to come out of the past two years is the ‘double dip recession’. This is Newspeak for depression as far as I am concerned, but it fits with the new nomenclature we have used in an attempt to paint a crisis as not really being one. Full Story
The US is deflating its currency by printing money at a stupendous rate, China is devaluing its currency by pegging it to the weak Dollar and countries like Vietnam simply openly devalue their currency in order to maintain a competitive edge. Expect this trend to pick up steam; it’s now going to be a race to the bottom of the pit, and it will only end with a full blow currency crisis. Full Story
Even the most statist economists can understand that a country’s debt has reached its saturation point once the change in Gross Domestic Product is less than the change in the federal debt. However, now the metrics of the American economy look even worse than the picture painted above. For each new dollar in federal debt, with productivity as measured by an increase or decrease in the GDP, 45 cents of wealth is destroyed. Full Story
The Prospect that we may not get any Genuine Financial Regulatory Reform from this session of Congress, AND that the private for-profit Fed will acquire even more power, creates both potential Crises and Opportunities. Full Story
Here, the issue must devolve to the question of a nation’s people trying to save some assets in the form of gold, silver, foreign currencies, etc and the whole future of the fiat US dollar which seems ready to collapse into nothing from the mountains of inflation and debt piled up over the years. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 26 March, 2010
It’s always been true, over and over, that corruption is always at its maximum at the end of long booms powered by an expansion of money. In the old days, before America lost its collective mind and allowed a fiat currency, government spending was pretty much fixed because the money supply was fixed by the relatively-unchanging supply of gold. Full Story
The mortgage relief plan just announced by B of A is the most consumer-oriented idea to come out of the banking sector since real estate prices began to implode in 2007. The goal of the program is to allow individual mortgages to fall to a level where they approximate the market value of homes whose value has fallen underwater. Full Story
I last wrote my last Metal Report on March 10, 2010. In that report I was questioning which way gold was going to resolve its March trend. Gold looks to have resolved that direction and trend on both the Daily and Weekly Charts is down. Full Story
When a financial bubble bursts – can it be reflated? And what are the risks for all of us the reflation attempt fails? In this article we will briefly review the six factors that came together to create the real estate bubble in the United States. As we will cover, the government has deemed a return to a normal housing market – one which is governed by market forces – to be politically unacceptable. Full Story
By: David Chapman, Union Securities - 25 March, 2010
Around the time of the anniversary of the lows of March 2009 (March 9 saw the low close) there were a number of articles referring to the rally that got underway at the time as the “Great Recovery”. More often than not it was the “great recovery” following the “great recession” or “great crash”. (“The great recovery after the great crash” in the Toronto Star of March 9, 2010 was but one of the articles and blogs noted). Full Story
Terrorism is not an enemy – it's a tactic. You can't have a war on terrorism any more than you can have a war on artillery barrages, cavalry charges – or a war on war, for that matter. The first step in winning a conflict is to identify the actual enemy. And the fools in DC can't even do that. Full Story
The Chilean earthquake that has done so much damage in the southern area of the country also cut short the consolidation that copper’s price had begun. All reports indicate that there has been little damage at mine sites, most of which are in northern Chile. There is still a question of whether infrastructure disruptions resulting from the need to focus on the quake hit areas could reduce the country’s metal shipments. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital - 25 March, 2010
Last week, the Dow closed at 10,741, up some 64 percent since its 2009 lows, [03/19/10, Yahoo! Finance] when most markets had priced in the likelihood of financial Armageddon. As the markets have rebounded from the brink of disaster, many Wall Street cheerleaders have proclaimed the dawning of a major new bull market. Full Story
Because silver is more than 17 times as plentiful as gold in the earth's crust, its use as money – both in coin and as a measure of value – is far more common in the historical archives as well. Whereas today, it holds much the same basic appeal as gold, but with four crucial twists... Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 25 March, 2010
Being a guy who understands that inflation in prices is the cause of economic misery, and also being a guy who spends a lot of his Precious Mogambo Time (PMT) politely informing people that they are morons for not buying gold, silver and oil to protect themselves from the inflation that must – must! – result from the Federal Reserve creating so much excess money and credit, I was very, very, VERY interested in... Full Story
We exited a bullish position in the E-Mini S&P yesterday on a trailing stop, expecting to reverse our strategy and get short at a slightly higher price. The futures need only have tacked five points onto Tuesday’s highs to trigger the new trade; alas they spent all of Wednesday going nowhere as we sat on our thumbs, bored half to death. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Greg McCoach - 24 March, 2010
Successful bullion dealer Greg McCoach brings more than 20 years of business experience and a vast network of mining contacts to the mining investment newsletter he launched in 2001, The Mining Speculator. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Greg discusses his strategies to prepare for what he says will be a real buying opportunity. Full Story
Like many of you, the passage of the healthcare bill wasn’t met with the popping of champagne in my house. I found myself chanting “Uncle Sam, Uncle Sham” as the day wore on. Higher taxes and other major changes are headed our way. And yet, I think there’s something in the bill that’s even more dastardly. Full Story
One of the things that many people go through their entire lives without ever realizing is that conditions haven’t always been the way they remember them to be. Due to the length of a typical lifetime and the number of those years that individuals are productive, it’s reasonable to think that someone in their mid-60s could retire today and look back at the last 40 years only to conclude that what they just experienced was normal. Full Story
You are very unlikely to ever have to trade physical gold for goods, at least if you live in a developed country. In recent times though, Zimbabwe went through massive and devastating hyperinflation. Gold was about all you could use to buy food or any other goods. This video touches my heart every time I see it. The tale of poverty forced upon the populous is a true tragedy, and it is not the fault of the general public. Full Story
For now the best strategy is to sit patiently and wait for the dollar to rally up into resistance at the 83 level and the market to move down into the cycle low. Once that happens we should have a fairly low risk entry for long positions in almost any asset class as the dollar works its way down into the intermediate cycle low. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 24 March, 2010
Over the past 50 years we have seen many bubbles. They have come and gone and the aftermath sometimes has lasted years, all from the courtesy of our privately owned Federal Reserve. We can remember those many years ago when we tried to explain to others that the Fed was owned by American and European bankers we were scoffed at. Well, finally the message has gotten through. These are the people who create bubbles for profit and power. Full Story
The last time this happened, investors had the chance to pocket 83% gains in about four months time. They could have done it safely. This has nothing to do with the overall market direction. Best of all, it’s consistently lucrative. It has paid off an average of 112%. But it doesn’t happen often. This opportunity has only arisen three times in the last five years. Right now it’s about to happen all over again. Here’s the set up. Full Story
Summing up, there is still a low correlation between PM stocks and the USD Index in the short-term, but it seems that we might see it become visibly negative once again. With a mixed RSI signal and confirmation of the downward breakout the most likely short-term action is climbing to recent highs and then resuming the lower channel breakout, which would serve as a positive factor in the medium-term for the PM sector. Full Story
All due praise to Google, which has put principle above money by refusing to censor search results in China. We can’t recall the last time an American company publically took the high road, ethically and morally speaking – especially when billions of dollars of potential revenues were at stake as they are in this case. More often, we read about bribery scandals abroad and cynically assume it’s the cost of doing business in the ethical swamps that lie outside of Europe, Canada and Japan. China is much worse than merely corrupt, however, and that’s why it was an ideal place for Google to take a firm and principled stand. Full Story
Recently the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published its scoring of President Obama's budget for the next 10 years. It shows a budget deficit of $9.8 trillion. That is just shy of $4 trillion worse than the CBO’s baseline budget, a budget that includes only the laws as currently enacted, with no estimates of any new programs lawmakers may add that worsen future projections. Full Story
The USEconomy is bifurcated, with price inflation advancing on the cost side while price deflation harms on the asset side, to produce a nasty storm that is unlikely to abate. When high pressure zones clash with low pressure zones, hurricanes and tornadoes occur. Calling the resulting near 0% or low 2% price inflation on a net basis a good sign completely ignores the forces pulling the national economy apart. Full Story
By: Steven Saville, Speculative Investor - 23 March, 2010
The year-over-year growth rates of popular monetary aggregates M2 and MZM are presently around 2%, which is near their lows of the past 15 years. Furthermore, M3, another popular monetary aggregate, has just experienced the fastest decline in its growth rate in at least 40 years and is now down by about 5% on a year-over-year basis. Full Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor - 23 March, 2010
Unless you are a real silver bug or a much studied gold bug, the concept of Silver Thursday will have little meaning for you. Silver Thursday took place on March 27, 1980, and this-coming Saturday marks the thirtieth anniversary of that event. Full Story
We are looking at a high probability of a rally in the gold price in the coming weeks which will spur gold stocks into upward motion yet again. This is suggested due to fundamental and technical reasons. Inflation (of the money supply), increasing demand and coming uncertainty as the sovereign debt crisis gradually unfolds are three of the key fundamental drivers going forward. The pace of the increase in the money supply is increasing and causing distortions that are essential to understand. Full Story
It is a foregone conclusion that the U.S. dollar as the monetary unit of the worlds largest economy will be a weak sister internationally as these deficits are so much larger in gross numbers than the deficits of the other world governments which have competing currencies. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Richard Karn - 23 March, 2010
Richard Karn, managing editor of The Emerging Trends Report, is taking a hiatus from North American markets to explore the long-term investment opportunities in Australian resources. The Gold Report caught up with Richard, currently in Australia gearing up for the trip, in an email exchange about his journey to circumnavigate the country visiting a wide variety of precious and specialty metal projects "down under." Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 23 March, 2010
The recent weird action in gold, namely that its price has not risen despite every reason to rise, has people angrily writing to me and saying, “Dear Worthless Mogambo Moron (WMM), You are always telling us that we are stupid unless we own a lot of gold, silver and oil; so I bought some, just like you said to do, but they are not going straight up in a zooming price rise like I want... Full Story
Yesterday we aired a bearish prospectus for Canada written by “Cameroni,” a regular contributor to the Rick’s Picks forum. He expects a real estate bust and sees the Canadian economy ultimately getting dragged into the same deep bog that has trapped the U.S., on whom the nation’s export economy depends heavily. Below is a response from “Bobtor” arguing that Canada is in far better shape than the U.S. to weather hard times, for a number of reasons. Full Story
Palladium was the underdog of the precious metals sector for a long time, because for the most part it hardly received any attention. In the last few months this all changed and with the introduction of the Palladium ETF (PALL), Palladium has finally emerged from the shadows to the spotlight. Full Story
It’s one of the most pressing questions facing investors today. Is the housing market about to recover? With the housing market at the center of the credit crunch, any recovery in the housing market could quickly turn the Wall Street recovery into a Main Street recovery. Full Story
There has been no shortage of mainstream media coverage regarding the public’s growing outrage with Wall Street and its now unparalleled lust for money and power (greed), with everything from Matt Taibbi’s comprehensive accounting of the growing scandal entitled Wall Street’s Bailout Hustle, to the hollow calls from politicians to rein in these apparently misguided people, heavy on the sarcasm here. Full Story
The major bull rally (cyclical bull as it turns out) currently in progress was highly predictable as was the current relief blip to new highs across many markets. In early 2009, extreme bearish sentiment along with ferocious money supply growth provided the platform. Full Story
This is directed toward those readers who have heeded the siren song of the establishment and have put their assets into the stock market. I say to you: NO STOCKS, NO STOCKS, NO STOCKS, not at this time. Full Story
The Dubai Financial Services Authority has issued a landmark ruling that fined the three brothers who ran the Nasdaq-listed Damas jewelry company more than $3 million and requires them to repay $99 million in cash and almost two tonnes of gold ‘borrowed’ from the group. Full Story
In this age of overwhelming data at our very fingertips we are sometimes slow to recognize the threat due to data overload. The Federal BLS produces reams of data that are calculated in a fashion that would make an embezzler blush. In order to clear our minds a bit I direct your attention to the following graph of National Totals of State General Sales Tax Revenues. Full Story
Certainly you all would agree with this statement: “No futures trader should be able to dominate the market or be able to achieve such an overwhelming size of positioning on one side of the market that it would intimidate the majority of traders in that market.” Such a statement should be foremost in the policy totem pole of futures market regulators. However, the fact is that just such an egregious situation currently exists today in the U.S. precious metals futures markets, up to now apparently with the Commission’s blessing. Full Story
Friday's commentary, "How Home Prices Will Find a Bottom," elicited responses over the weekend that were both provocative and insightful. For one, there was this common-sense suggestion for investing during the very challenging times that lie ahead... Full Story
1st Hour: Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & The International Forecaster discussion and listener's questions. 2nd Hour: Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings Eric Coffin, Hard Rock Advisors Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 21 March, 2010
Global equity markets have changed over the last three years, investor capacities and capabilities have changed as have interest rate patterns. This makes it incumbent upon investors to re-examine this question from the ground up. Full Story
Would a severe decline by the Precious Metals at this point mean that the bullmarket in gold and silver is over? - probably not - because those in power can be expected to respond to the resurgence of deflation the same way they did last time - with bailouts, money printing and the suppression of interest rates - but this time they will have to do these things on an even grander scale that will pave the way for hyperinflation - so we are likely to see another roller coaster ride with an “icicle” bottom, and we will be ready and waiting to pounce if prices plunge again as they did in 2008. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 21 March, 2010
There was no turning back after June 2003. The last bubble was in the process of being created. The collapse of real estate, both residential and commercial, had been put in place and their fateful journey had begun. The credit expansion had begun and there would be no stopping it until it had run its course. Full Story
A surge in put or sell options in New York, and a decline in call or buy options is a classic signal of a stock market trend reversal, and is now in place. On Friday the S&P 500 also registered its biggest percentage fall in almost a month. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 21 March, 2010
If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics from Senators to Nobel laureates. Paul Krugman wants to see a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. Today we examine that idea, and look at the real problems that we face. If only it were so easy. The numbers just don't add up. The fault, dear Brutus... Full Story
In my previous report, "Why Should Your Children Pay for My Retirement?" I went through the logic and economics of Social Security and Medicare. I made the point that, at some point, the bill-payers are going to resist the payments that previous generations have legislated. What one generation can legislate, a subsequent generation can repeal. Full Story
One of the most salient observations that can be made in the financial market is the tendency of market averages to enter lengthy trading range after a prolonged uptrend or downtrend. This temporarily directionless trend of prices, or consolidation, within a range creates a psychological discomfort among investors that at times is quite palpable. Full Story
By: Richard Daughty, The Mogambo Guru - 21 March, 2010
There are those (me) who think that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a huge load of worthless, corrupt crap, not only because their dismal record pretty much shows that they are miserable failures, but because that is the way things always end up when someone is given power and money in huge amounts, or even in moderate amounts. Full Story
From a long term standpoint we are in a holding pattern basically moving sideways. The long term P&F chart remains bullish while the indicators have not changed from last week. The price of gold remains above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. Full Story
Gold has much further to run in the years to come and silver even more-so. There is no other possible outcome as world fiat currencies continue to be devalued. It is that simple. Read on to find out why 700% is the minimum move higher. Full Story
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