Gold and its miners’ stocks have proven rare bastions of strength during recent weeks’ market carnage. They are powering considerably higher while nearly everything else burns. The markets’ major sentiment shift is accelerating a young gold upleg, which ought to grow much larger as speculators and investors continue returning. Their collective gold positioning remains very low, making for abundant gold upleg fuel. Full Story
In January 2009, when bitcoin was released, its value was “basically nothing” ~wikipedia. Eight years later in January 2017, bitcoin was at $986 and in December reached $19,783, an astounding one-year rise of 1,900 %, outperforming the 1,500 % historic increase in the Dow from 1982 – 2000. In 2018, bitcoin lost 66 % of its value. Full Story
For the last three years and during the 64% rally in the SPX 500 from 1800 to 2940, many analysts were quite bearish, expecting the market to top out each and every week. They continued to point towards the “risks” in the market, all the while helping develop that wall of worry that we continued to climb on the long side on the way to our long-term targets. But, let’s be honest – what market does not have risk? Full Story
Even some of the Mainstream Media have now finally acknowledged that the private, for-profit, Federal Reserve-led Globalist Mega Bank Cartel (see Note 1) has long been Involved in suppressing Precious Metals Prices. And recently evidence has appeared that the Central Bankers’ Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, is involved in Precious Metals Price Suppression as well. Full Story
Summing up, yesterday’s mining stocks’ plunge confirmed the bearish outlook and the breakout in the USD Index and completion of the local inverse head-and-shoulders pattern suggests that the next big rally in the USDX has just started and that the opposite is very likely for the precious metals sector. Full Story
Silver market analyst Ted Butler today marvels at the frantic movement of huge amounts of silver among the vaults of the New York Commodity Exchange, and wonders why it is happening and why it gets no notice from other market analysts. Full Story
Easy come, easy go. AMZN stunned traders with a 135-point gain Thursday from the bombed-out depths of Wednesday’s selloff. Then, after the close, the stock reversed steeply, shedding 180 points and sucking tens of billions of dollars from stock markets in the U.S. and around the world in mere minutes. A disappointing forecast for the holiday season triggered the avalanche, which has abated somewhat this evening, although presumably not for long. Full Story
The real question is at what point during the US dollar's rise, do conditions turn bullish for precious metals? We'll get to that in the future. From here, a rising US dollar will be negative for precious metals initially as the Fed will be able to hike in December and perhaps at least once more. But from a bird’s eye view, it will accelerate the time between now and the start of a bull market. Full Story
In light of the volatile market action since my last report two weeks ago I am dedicating this report towards the big picture view. I have been presenting the post bubble contraction (PBC) model to you all year long, however I am convinced many still don’t recognize this is actually playing out before their eyes. Full Story
Best selling author, Dr. Stephen Leeb returns with a solid outlook on the gold Watch for $100+ silver and $10,000 gold in the coming years. The correlation is drawn between the PMs sector and China's Yuan currency, a nation that makes money interchangeable with gold. The discussion includes an investigation into the socioeconomic issues plaguing the modern world, such as overpopulation and scarcity of resources. Full Story
The hit movie from 1996, “A Time to Kill”, based upon the novel by John Grisham, had an all-star cast, including Matthew McConaughey, Samuel Jackson, Sandra Bullock, Kevin Spacey and Donald and Kiefer Sutherland among others. It concerned the rape and beating of a young black girl in the racially-divided rural Deep South, the subsequent killing by her father of the two white rapists and the trial that followed the father’s killing of the rapists. Full Story
What does it all mean for the gold market? The liquidation of stocks caused investors to turn to safe-havens. So far, both the US dollar and gold benefited from this flight to safety. As one can see in the next chart, the price of the yellow metal jumped about 4 percent in October, returning above the $1,200 level. Given the previous extreme negative sentiment, the rally in gold during the increased volatility in the stock market (see the chart below) is not surprising. Full Story
When we see a large market move occur which surprises you, what do you do? The first thing you likely do is go on the internet to read the financial news so that you can “understand” what just happened. Full Story
It may have felt like stocks were free-falling Wednesday, but for many of us who were short, making ‘easy’ money was like pulling teeth for most of the day. The broad averages jerked around for hours after falling hard in the early going. As the morning wore on, it felt at times as though DaBoyz were going to muscle shares back to unchanged. Full Story
For the past few years, homeowners just about everywhere have been able to finesse life’s problems by thinking “at least my house is going up.” This home equity accretion allowed them to buy stuff on credit, safe in the knowledge that even as they maxed out yet another credit card their net worth continued to rise. They felt smart and confident, in other words, and so continued to behave in ways that the modern world defines as normal and natural. Full Story
Well, David, the volatility in the stock markets is dominating the financial news over the past few days and week or so. Lots of metals investors are wondering when we might get the next big correction in stock prices. They've been waiting for a few years now. We've had some significant selloffs and each time we start wondering if the bears might have the upper hand, but markets seem to recover quickly. What do you make of the recent action in stocks? Are the equity markets in real jeopardy here or this is just another bump in the road? Full Story
A reset may occur as a series of rolling debt defaults, stock and bond market crashes, and/or hyperinflation—South American style. Unbacked fiat currencies and over-valued stock markets are likely to crash. The reset could also happen as a slow moving default and credit crunch that progresses from the periphery—Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Argentina—to Europe, Japan and the United States. Or, it may be a global reset that occurs within a few days. Full Story
Summing up, based on yesterday’s reversal in gold (and its shape in case of the GLD ETF), mining stocks’ underperformance, and previous outperformance of silver, it seems that the local top in the precious metal sector is in or at hand. The reversal was likely to take place this week and it seems to have taken place yesterday. If not, then it’s likely to be seen this week, anyway. Full Story
Well, after calling for market tops weekly for the last three years while the market rallied from 1800 to 2940 (that is a 64% gain), the bears are now high-fiving themselves for “catching the top.” Yes, many of them certainly caught the top with their weekly top calls after having missed the last 64% rally. But who’s counting? Full Story
While the U.S. Shale Industry produces a record amount of oil, it continues to be plagued by massive oil decline rates and debt. Moreover, even as the companies brag about lowering the break-even cost to produce shale oil, the industry still spends more than it makes. When we add up all the negative factors weighing down the shale oil industry, it should be no surprise that a catastrophic failure lies dead ahead. Full Story
As many of you reading this know, I’m what you would call a Tex-Can. I was born and raised in Canada, but I’ve called Texas home for nearly 30 years. I can’t picture U.S. Global Investors headquartered anywhere else, even after traveling to all parts of the country and, indeed, the world. Texas just “gets it,” which is why I think CNBC recently named the $1.6 trillion economy the best state for business in 2018—the first time, in fact, a state has won four separate times since the network began ranking them 12 years ago. Full Story
Understand that the LBMA palladium market is managed in the same unallocated and leveraged structure that we see in the LBMA gold and silver markets. If physical demand succeeds in breaking the LBMA palladium market, investors globally will finally be forced to consider that the LBMA gold and silver markets are unallocated frauds, too. This could easily lead to the type of physical run that we are now seeing in palladium and, eventually, the same destruction of the LBMA gold and silver schemes. Full Story
I bring up the topic of the Crash of '87 only because of the incredible impact it had on the psyches of millions of investors around the world. Forgotten is the fact that, a little over two years later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke out to all-time highs as the baby boom generation finally forgot about love beads and VW vans and fell wildly in love with capitalism—and, of course, stocks. Full Story
What's really been interesting about gold is that it has risen on a number of occasions recently when the stock market was crashing and yet the dollar was strong. Now typically that would argue that the buying is safe haven related. And, Maurice, I never like that as a driver for gold. I'm never in favor of that as a reason for gold to go up for any sustained period because these, the safe-haven type buying, these geopolitical political issues, these little flash crises, they come and go, and they don't provide a sustained driver for gold. What really drives gold over the longer term are concerns over monetary issues, concerns over debt and currency depreciation and the like, and inflation. Full Story
US stock markets appear headed for a stagflationary quagmire while China and India are headed for the glory of what I call the “gold bull era”. Many recent US stock market investors “chased price” based on the election of Donald Trump. They are now faced with an army of institutional money managers who are trimming positions. Full Story
It’s important to keep in mind that the mining stocks have been sold to levels well-below their intrinsic value – in the case of larger-cap producing miners. Or their “optionality” value – in the case of junior mining companies with projects that have a good chance eventually of converting their deposits into mines. “Optionality” value is based on the idea that junior exploration companies with projects that have strong mineralization or a compliant resource have an implied value based on the varying degrees of probability that their projects will eventually be developed into a producing mine. Full Story
Below 2745, everything treated as deadcat bounce and bears are being favored here as downside levels have all opened up the 2693 June lows, followed by 2675, 2620, and 2590. Conversely, if above 2745 and then re-take 2760, then it’s a full retracement back above yesterday’s close which means 2712 versus whatever low becomes a double bottom formation. The bearish scenario right now has much higher odds given the gap down and go pressure. Full Story
There is an age-old relationship between prices and interest rates that Keynesian economists have called a paradox (“Gibson’s Paradox”). The relationship was clearer during the Gold Standard era, but as I explained in a previous post it is still apparent if prices are measured in gold. Full Story
The current turmoil in Italy clearly shows that the global financial crisis and the resulting banking crisis in the Eurozone have not ended yet. European banks, and Italian in particular, are still fragile. Although the Italy’s government’s expansionary fiscal policy may support the GDP growth in the near-term, the downside risks for the Italian economy are mounting. It’s true that the banking sector has seen a visible improvement since the Great Recession. However, if the bond yields remain elevated, there might be a renewed banking crisis. Full Story
I have now been a contributor at Seeking Alpha for seven years, during which time I have written for approximately six years, as I took a one-year hiatus. And, during that time, I have had the honor of penning almost 400 articles. Full Story
Anyone hoping Treasury rates will ease, cutting stock-market bulls some slack, must first reckon with the chart shown (see inset). It implies that a significant rise in yields on the 30-Year Bond is coming, and that they will hit 3.59% before borrowers get any relief. If this occurs as appears likely, 30-year mortgages will be pushing above 5%, causing an already shaky housing sector to implode, along with the auto-leasing business. Full Story
Hungary isn’t known today as one of the world’s top gold producing countries. There was a time, though, when it accounted for around three-quarters of Europe’s entire output of the yellow metal, if you can believe it. According to historian Peter Sugar’s A History of Hungary, the central European country was a “veritable El Dorado” in the 14th century, and its gold pieces circulated widely across the entire continent, competing with those minted in Italy and England. Full Story
The outcome of the November 6th voting will be a big deal for investors, including gold and silver bugs. The metals, perhaps more than most other asset classes, are sensitive to geopolitics. Let’s break down what the potential voting outcomes might mean for the factors currently driving the metals. Full Story
Politicians, especially presidents (and prime ministers) should probably never talk about markets. Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper once said, "My own belief is if we were going to have some kind of crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now." He said that on September 15, 2008 as Lehman Brothers came crashing down. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 1.41 percent. Philip Newman, founding director of Metals Focus, said this week that palladium is the new market favorite and could hit an all-time record high next year. This week spot gold held near its highest level since late July as holdings of gold-backed ETFs rose to the most since early September, according to Bloomberg. Full Story
Huge recent imbalances in the gold futures market led many to predict that speculators (usually wrong at big turning points) would be forced to close out their historically extreme short bets. Put another way, too many traders were using gold futures contracts to bet that precious metals will go down, and when those bets are reversed out it will make gold and silver go up. Full Story
Summing up, the breakout in gold is a bullish development for the short term, but the rally that was likely to be seen based on it, could have already taken place. There are multiple bearish signs in place that confirm that the rally is just a correction within a bigger decline and there are indications that point to a reversal taking place this week. Full Story
Since about 1960 the catalyst for all recessions has been inflation. Specifically energy inflation. When the price of oil rises too much too fast it impacts the cost of living expenses. When it starts costing twice as much to fill up the car, and the weekly grocery bill doubles, that is what collapses middle class spending. When the middle class goes into hibernation that’s what triggers a recession and a bear market in stocks. Full Story
Let’s continue to look at the fiasco in the franc. We say “fiasco”, because anyone in Switzerland who is trying to save for retirement has been put on a treadmill, which is now running backwards at –¾ mph (yes, miles per hour in keeping with our treadmill analogy). Instead of being propelled forward towards their retirement goals by earning interest that compounds, they are losing principal. They will never reach their retirement goals. If you disagree, we encourage you to model it. Full Story
The general investment public usually applies the same principles when they choose how and when to invest their hard-earned money. (And we wonder why the general public always gets caught holding the bag at the highs and selling at the lows?) And, much of these “principles” are merely phrases which sound reasonable, but when analyzed, one realizes that they are lacking in substance. Full Story
Returning to the show, Ralph Acampora a highly respected name on Wall Street and the co-founder of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT). The former Director of Technical Research at Smith Barney, outlines a more rosy picture on US equities than the typical analyst. President Niko Cacos, CEO, and Director - Blue Sky Uranium Corp., winner of the Explorer of the Year Award, makes his show debut. Headquartered in Argentina, Blue Sky Uranium Corp. is a leader in uranium discovery in the region. Full Story
Today, rather than tackle some big macroeconomic issue, we’ll go back to this letter’s roots and look at market timing and portfolio construction issues. I expect this will get both enthusiastic support and at the same time, make a number of readers uncomfortable—if not annoyed. Full Story
Our friend Lawrence Lepard, managing partner of Equity Management Associates in Wellesley, Massachusetts, whose investments have been concentrated in the monetary metals mining industry, has just sent a letter to his investors outlining the case for an upward reversal in the industry's fortunes. Full Story
Over our two decades following global monetary affairs, we have often marveled at default confidence awarded the Federal Reserve. Don’t misinterpret us — the Fed’s power borders on surreal. Seven governors and twelve regional bank presidents set the price of money not only for the world’s largest economy, but through auspices of the dollar standard system, for the entire globe. No matter how practical “don’t fight the Fed” logic has proven over time, it does not diminish the folly that 19 capable and well-supported individuals might possibly price the world’s reserve currency more efficiently than free markets. Full Story
Inflation is a funny thing: we feel it virtually every day, but we’re told it doesn’t exist—the official inflation rate is around 2.5% over the past few years, a little higher when energy prices are going up and a little lower when energy prices are going down. Historically, 2.5% is about as low as inflation gets in a mass-consumption economy like the U.S. that depends on the constant expansion of credit. Full Story
We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay. Full Story
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