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Weekly Archive

By: Visual Capitalist - 25 September, 2015

What’s the difference between 2007 and today? One stark contrast is the fact that the Fed’s balance sheet has exploded by adding $3.5 trillion of phony money to its balance sheet (that’s about the size of Germany’s economy) with its Quantitative Easing (QE) program. As part of the same experiment, it kept rates artificially low at near 0% for a record amount of time to encourage both lending and economic growth. Full Story

By: Craig Hemke - 25 September, 2015

While much has been made about the record low Comex registered gold inventory, we've also been following a slow-motion "run" on the gold vaults of Scotia Mocatta. Could this be evidence of failing confidence in the bullion bank system? Full Story

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 25 September, 2015

Gold has lapsed deeper into pariahdom this year, becoming the most-hated investment class in all the markets. Traders are avoiding it like the plague, utterly convinced gold is doomed to spiral lower perpetually. But this wildly-bearish psychology is dead wrong. Financial markets are forever cyclical, and gold is no exception to history’s ironclad rule. The best time to be heavily long anything is when few others are. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 25 September, 2015

This week I listened to an interview with a Swiss refiner which promptly reminded me of an interview I conducted with Alex Stanczyk (currently Managing Director of Physical Gold Fund SP) on 9 September 2013 about what he was hearing from industry insiders on Chinese gold demand. Back then we knew very little about the Chinese gold market and how physical gold across the globe was flowing towards China. This started to change on 18 September 2013 when I published my first analysis on the structure of the Chinese gold market with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) at its core; a topic that since then has been discussed by researchers at investment banks, in the blogosphere and in the mainstream media. Full Story

By: Nick Giambruno - 25 September, 2015

As powerful as the Fed is, it isn’t stronger than the markets. A crisis in the markets could force rates higher even if the Fed doesn’t want them to go there. And the longer the Fed tries to sustain abnormalities like QE and 0% interest rates, the more likely it is that the whole business will end with the markets crushing the Fed. Full Story

By: Jared Dillian - 25 September, 2015

First, let’s get the gloating out of the way. I said that the Fed would not hike rates here and here. Nobody likes a chest pounder, so that’s the end of the discussion. So now, what is the trade? Not only did the Fed not hike rates, but the directive was so dovish, it was far outside the range that any reasonable person thought was possible. Should be bullish, right? Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 25 September, 2015

Silver gets little respect, but that is sensible in a world dominated by paper assets and pretend values. Similar to a murder investigation, let’s examine the motive, means and opportunity used to “manage” silver prices. Full Story

By: Alasdair Macleod - 25 September, 2015

The sudden end of the Fed’s ambition to raise interest rates above the zero bound, coupled with the FOMC’s minutes, which expressed concerns about emerging market economies, has got financial scribblers writing about negative interest rate policies (NIRP). Coincidentally, Andrew Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, published a much commented-on speech giving us a window into the minds of central bankers, with zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) having failed in their objectives. Full Story

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT - 25 September, 2015

The vicious and ever enduring bear market in precious metals has coincided, amid a strong negative correlation, with a bull market in equities. The negative correlation is nothing new as it occurred and persisted from 1973 through 1978 and also from 1996 through 2002. We’ve said Gold could not begin a new bull market until the correlation flips in favor of Gold. For the first time in three years various Gold/equities ratios are trading above the 80-week moving averages. This is an important development as it indicates the bear market in precious metals is very close its end. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 25 September, 2015

The New York Times today published an interesting report about an exhibition in Manhattan of artistic gold relics from the Philippines. The first two paragraphs are appended, along with a link to the full report. But the report may be most important for an observation deeper into the text: "Gold was always plentiful in the Philippines, readily collected by panning. Today the country is said to have the world's second richest gold deposits." Full Story

By: Peter Cooper - 25 September, 2015

Investors have no logical reason left not to buy gold and silver. The Federal Reserve is clearly involved in a failing bluff on interest rates that it dare not raise because the global economy is entering a recession. Meanwhile, gold prices have already bounced $80 off the lows of last month which was the completion of a four-year, 50 per cent retracement of the gold bull market, a classic market pattern before a big price lift-off that even a blind man can see. Full Story

By: Graham Summers - 24 September, 2015

Since 2008, the Keynesians running global Central Banks had always suggested that there was no problem too great for them to handle. They’d promised to do “whatever it takes,” to maintain the financial system and print the world back to growth. Full Story

By: Visual Capitalist - 24 September, 2015

In this data visualization, we compare the national debt of 34 countries using three different measures. The results are surprising: when expressed in terms of the actual capacity to pay (tax revenue), the United States has the 2nd largest national debt in the world. Full Story

By: Jeff Nielson - 24 September, 2015

Clearly the title to this piece will be viewed as controversial, if not entirely heretical, by many readers. However, the facts (and more importantly) the economic principles here are unequivocal. “Bigger” is not better. Full Story

By: Jeff D. Opdyke - 24 September, 2015

Which of these best defines your thinking during periods when it seems failure is the likely option? If at first you don’t succeed … cut bait and scram. The race doesn’t always go to the swiftest of foot but the surest of step. Full Story

By: Justin Spittler - 24 September, 2015

We’re in a very fragile situation. E.B. thinks last month’s brutal selloff in U.S. stocks was just the beginning. Things are likely to get much worse from here. But they don’t have to get worse for you… E.B. can be your “personal guide” as this 6-year bull market continues to unravel. He’s recently shown readers how to profit from crashing oil prices and the digital revolution in money. You can read all about E.B.’s favorite investing opportunities every month in The Casey Report… Full Story

By: Rambus - 24 September, 2015

It appears we maybe entering into another bout of deflation by the looks of some of the charts I’ve been looking at. The US dollar will be the key driver if this second leg down is going to take hold. Many of the commodities charts are looking pretty heavy right now along with some of the commodities based currencies. Full Story

By: John Mauldin and Daniel Stelter - 24 September, 2015

This immigration crisis in Europe is a big deal, and it’s a bigger deal for Germany than for any other European country. Germany is directly in the firing line, both geographically and in terms of how many of the migrants want to settle there. Nearly 40% of migrants choose Germany as their preferred final destination, while the only other nation that is chosen by more than 10% of migrants is Hungary, at 18%. Full Story

By: James Anderson - 24 September, 2015

In this article, I will explain first how and why silver bullion premiums have aggressively increased since the middle of summer 2015 AND how and what I am doing to take advantage of the current premiums via a bullion form sell and buy arbitrage. Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 24 September, 2015

Last week the clock ran out on the Fed's latest bluff. They have gone 55 meetings over 80 months without a single tightening or rise in interest rates. Last week was supposed to be "different" and a tightening of credit was predicted by something like 82% of economists polled. We of course now know that no tightening occurred and a trial balloon was even floated about instituting a new round of QE... Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 24 September, 2015

My obsession with keeping losses down to literal small change would have stopped subscribers out of a beautiful trade Tuesday night. With the futures hovering near 1124.00, I’d recommended bottom-fishing with an 1121.70 bid, stop 1121.40. The stop-loss proved too tight, however, when the futures launched into a $13 rally from 1121.10 that could have racked up a gain of nearly $1300 per contract for anyone who’d gotten aboard. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 23 September, 2015

Lately there’s been quite a lot of volatility in world markets. The Shanghai Composite Index has tumbled close to 40 percent since hitting a seven-year high in June. The S and P 500 Index dipped into correction territory after a spectacular six-year bull run. And the Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index—popularly known as the VIX—spiked dramatically last month. Full Story

By: Michael J. Kosares - 23 September, 2015

The note came by e-mail just after the dinner hour. Three simple words: “Are you worried?” No, it wasn’t bait posted to my mailbox to get me to open it. It was a note from an old friend and client of the firm who over the years has been very insightful – an individual who used to post his observations occasionally at our old forum page and was highly respected among that formidable group. Full Story

By: Justin Spittler - 23 September, 2015

Los Angeles wants to blow billions of tax dollars… The Olympics are a spectacle. The athletes are incredible to watch. But hosting the games is a usually a big money-loser for the venue city. Russia went $39 billion over budget hosting the 2014 Sochi games. Vancouver ended up $1 billion in debt after hosting the 2010 Winter Olympics. Athens spent about $16 billion – roughly 5% of Greece’s GDP – on the 2004 Summer Olympics. Some economists say the huge cost even contributed to Greece’s debt crisis. Full Story

By: - 23 September, 2015

GoldSeek Radio - Avi Gilburt and Chris Waltzek Full Story

By: Ronan Manly - 23 September, 2015

A number of central banks refuse to confirm the location of their gold reserves. I will document this in a future posting. Some of the large holders undoubtedly hold quite a lot of gold at the Bank of England, as do a number of smaller holders. Countries that could fit into this category include Spain, France, Colombia, Lithuania, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Pakistan, Egypt, Slovenia, Macedonia, Malaysia, Thailand and South Africa. In fact any central bank which has engaged in gold lending is a candidate for having some of its gold stored at the Bank of England. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 23 September, 2015

Gold researcher and GATA consultant Ronan Manly tonight publishes a huge research project -- an attempt not only to quantify the gold vaulted in the London bullion market and at the Bank of England but also to calculate the gold reserves held at the bank by individual countries. Manly concludes that gold vaulting in London has been in steady decline for years and that some nations, though far from all, are candid about their gold leasing. Full Story

By: Avi Gilburt - 22 September, 2015

I want you to take note of the title to this write up. I did not ask if the 4 year correction has come to an end. The reason is that all indications are still that lower levels will be seen. But, it does not mean that the market cannot continue to rally before setting up for those lower levels. Full Story

By: Sol Palha - 22 September, 2015

We were very bullish on gold starting from 2002 and our bullishness continued until the beginning of 2011. In 2011, we started to voice concern as the Gold camp was chanting “Kumbaya my love”, and almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in the Gold market were all busy issuing higher targets. Towards the middle of 2011, there were many signs that all was not well. Full Story

By: Jeff Desjardins - 22 September, 2015

For the companies exploring for gold, a deposit that has more than one gram of gold for every tonne of earth is an exciting prospect. In fact, in our 2013 report summarizing the world’s gold deposits, we found that the average grade of gold deposits in the world is around that amount: about 1.01 g/t. Full Story

By: Stewart Thomson - 22 September, 2015

As I write this update, US stock markets have already given up all of yesterday’s gains this morning. To make an already-bad situation worse, “Quadruple Witching Hour” occurs on Friday. Individual stock options, stock futures, stock indexes and stock index futures all expire then, and this expiry could ignite a new wave of panic selling. Full Story

By: Gary Christenson - 22 September, 2015

Gold prices peaked in January 1996 and then fell for 3.5 years into a multi-decade low. It was the age of stocks, debt, leverage, and good times; nobody needed or wanted gold. Since the gold price peak in 2011 the Federal Reserve has “generously” supplied the world with trillions of dollars of newly created digital and paper debt, all backed by nothing but faith and credit. Bonds have rallied and the SPX is higher by 50% or so. The Japanese Central Bank has similarly produced trillions of yen, bought stocks and bonds, and extended their recession several more years. Full Story

By: Bob Loukas - 22 September, 2015

For some reason there was a late flurry of expectations that the FED was going to raise rates this past week. Many in the media would like us to believe that we’ve finally transitioned out of an economic intensive care and that the economy is ready to stand on its own two feet. Evidence to support the idea is the employment picture, which when taken on the surface provides the illusions that we’re in a healthy and thriving economy. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 22 September, 2015

There is no other way to describe the radical change that has taken place in several areas of the silver supply market this year other than to say…. it’s quite shocking. While certain analysts stated that the silver supply would indeed fall this year, I don’t believe anyone could have envisioned the kind of declines experienced in the chart below. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 22 September, 2015

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week blinked in the face of—as she described it—global uncertainty, low inflation, and a still-low U.S. labor force participation rate. I’ve written on the emerging markets slowdown numerous times in recent months, so her reasoning is not at all surprising. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 September, 2015

Monday’s moderate weakness looks innocuous in the context of the bullishness of the 240-minute chart shown. Notice that the presumptive C-D phase of the rally begun from 1081.40 in early August stalled precisely at the 1141.90 midpoint pivot. This confirms the authority and reliability of the pattern itself, while also shortening the odds that a decisive push past p would go at least to p2=1164.00, or to D=1186.10 if any higher. Full Story

By: Nathan McDonald - 21 September, 2015

The ultimate question that everyone would like to know is "when will this change happen?" The answer to this is unknown, but that doesn't change the fact that a path has been set and plans are in motion for it to occur. The West has driven over the cliff and just like the iconic character Wile E. Coyote, all that needs to occur now is that we look down at the rubble at the bottom of the canyon. Full Story

By: Stefan Gleason - 21 September, 2015

A quietly panicking Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided the U.S. economy still isn’t ready for an interest rate hike last week and left the Fed funds rate at essentially zero – the same level to which the Fed’s credibility has now sunk. Full Story

By: Bill Holter - 21 September, 2015

News out of Canada this past week provided a bit of a twist in the FATCA rules. As you know, FATCA requires the reporting of bank and financial assets held overseas by U.S. citizens and their institutions. Several readers sent this along believing the United States IRS was engulfing the records of Canadian citizens. I don't believe this to be the case. As I understand it, this ruling will only affect U.S. citizens living in Canada or people with dual U.S./Canadian citizenship. Full Story

By: Justin Spittler - 21 September, 2015

South Korea’s exports are important because they’re considered a “canary in the coalmine” for the global economy. South Korea is a major exporter to the largest economies in the world including China, the US, and Japan. South Korea also releases its export numbers much earlier than other major countries. That’s why a bad reading for South Korean exports is often the first sign that the global economy is in trouble. Full Story

By: Captain Hook - 21 September, 2015

Have you ever heard the saying – good things come to those who wait? What this obviously means is good things happen to the patient. Within my own life experience I have found this to be true. Patience is more often than not a virtue, especially when it comes to the speculation game. And while it’s true these past few years have not been kind to such thinkers – that’s the point – meaning the future looks bright for those who exercised patience and good judgment in attempting to game a bottom in precious metals. Full Story

By: Frank Holmes - 21 September, 2015

Silver was the best performing precious metal for the week, up 3.9 percent. It outperformed gold for the week on the back of increased offtake by industrial users and coin makers. Confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset returned following dollar weakness after the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged. The metal saw its first weekly gain in four weeks as a result. China’s economic slowdown, rising emerging-market currency volatility and the Fed highlighting “heightened uncertainties,” may persuade more investors to seek refuge in gold. This could be a bullish signal for gold, at least in the short-term, particularly as investors in China have been acquiring gold in anticipation of a rally. Full Story

By: Graham Summers - 21 September, 2015

One by one the various Fed doves are throwing in the towel. Sure, they might refuse to hike rates right now, but we’re a long ways from when Bernanke said that QE was a success because stocks were rallying. The Fed realizes that it is in the political crosshairs because QE has exacerbated wealth inequality. Full Story

By: Koos Jansen - 21 September, 2015

Shortly after Ronan Manly released its epic post on 7 September 2015 about how much gold there is left in London, an email exchange started circulating among a small group of bloggers in a joint effort to figure out the apportionment between monetary and non-monetary gold in the capital of England. This investigation is no different than others conducted by the BullionStar research team, often aimed at the alleged whereabouts of physical gold around the world, in anticipation of an economic shock that will make this subject to be the primary one: how much physical gold in whose possession at what location. Full Story

By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 21 September, 2015

International trade record-keeping rules exempt the reporting of movement of monetary gold, gold held or purchased by governments and central banks, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today. As a result, Jansen writes, gold acquired by the People's Bank of China or other proxies for the Chinese government is almost certainly not showing up in international trade statistics. Full Story

By: Keith Weiner - 21 September, 2015

The prices of the metals moved up a bunch this week, with gold + $32 and silver +$0.55. We have seen some discussion of gold backwardation in the context of scarcity, and hence setting expectations of higher prices. That’s good, as the swings from contango to backwardation and back are the only way to understand changing supply and demand in the market. Full Story

By: Dan Norcini - 21 September, 2015

As mentioned in an earlier post this morning, the TRIPLE THREE safe havens, the Yen, Bonds and Gold, are all getting a boost in today’s session with the Bonds being the stand out performer as can be expected. Gold, while moving higher, is also being weighed down by falling commodity prices with weakness in this sector a reason why many traders are selling into its rally. Full Story

By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 21 September, 2015

With the Fed’s decision not to raise rates, investors are more likely to return their focus to the deflationary forces that have been pushing government bond prices higher, and yields lower, for decades. Look for this trend to continue and possibly even pick up steam in the months ahead, says our good friend Doug Behnfield in the guest commentary below. Full Story

By: - 20 September, 2015

•From the Big Apple, NY, NY, Jim Rogers says the upcoming Fed rate decision tomorrow, Thursday, Sept. 17, could be a game-changing moment.
•The current implied probability of the 30-Day Fed Funds Futures indicates only a 22% likelihood of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting.
• Nevertheless, the financial powerhouse shares Axel Merk's sentiments, Fed Chair Janet Yellen could surprise investors with a token rate hike. Full Story

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis - 20 September, 2015

The title of today's; I know you like my slides, but the title of today's program is Silver Price Illusion Versus Reality and we'll talk about the convergence factors that I think are going to tip the balance from the current price illusion or reality that we live in right now and where we're headed. Before we get started, I want to hear from you. I want to connect with you. Please if you could, type your name into the chat box either to your right or below, depending on how you're watching this, so I can know your first name and where you are. I'm Jeff Lewis. I'm in San Francisco, California and I want to acknowledge that where you are and what your name is. Full Story

By: BestEvidence - 20 September, 2015

While the world breathlessly awaits the outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting—will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates or won’t it?—one thing is clear regardless: the Fed is driving the U.S. into a 2nd depression in order to carry out its one and only remit now that America’s ability to produce real jobs has been reduced to ash, namely, propping up criminal banks with multi-trillion-dollar giveaways. Full Story

By: Clive Maund - 20 September, 2015

The market didn’t waste any time “getting on with it” yesterday after the bearish action on the day of the Fed announcement. It fell, and hard. We are going to look at this carefully because what appears to be starting is a devastating “end run around the line” smash – if so a brutal plunge is just around the corner. Full Story

By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 20 September, 2015

There’s a lot of analysis on the MSM and alternative precious metal sites forecasting how the future events will play out. Unfortunately, 99% of MSM -Mainstream media’s take on the future is absolutely worthless. However, many precious metal analysts are also making incorrect financial and economic forecasts, based on faulty assumptions of the future. Full Story

By: John Mauldin - 20 September, 2015

Perhaps I should issue a storm warning for this letter. Maybe it’s because I had major gum surgery on my entire lower jaw this week and am in a bit of discomfort, but as I read the news coming through my inbox, it’s not helping my mood. This week’s letter will focus on the immigration crisis in Europe – after I muse on what I think is the very disturbing aftermath of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Full Story

By: Warren Bevan - 20 September, 2015

Markets didn’t do much this past week until the Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates, and then we saw them rise and fall and rise and fall until Friday when they just fell. I’m still all cash, waiting for setups to form and it’s likely we will see a new low over the next week or two before we begin to see patterns begin to complete and we get the all clear to begin deploying cash into the best stocks which I exclusively focus on and find. Full Story

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