The US Dollar (DXY Index) has moved relatively sideways over the past several weeks. The pattern that we have seen up off the August 2nd low has also been quite corrective in nature. This sideways action does fit with our larger degree perspective that the DXY is in a fourth wave corrective pattern. This is suggestive that the DXY still has some unfinished business to the downside prior to seeing a larger degree bottom. Full Story
The junior gold miners’ stocks have spent months grinding sideways near lows, sapping confidence and breeding widespread bearishness. The entire precious-metals sector has been left for dead, eclipsed by the dazzling Trumphoria stock-market rally. But traders need to keep their eyes on the fundamental ball so herd sentiment doesn’t mislead them. The juniors recently reported Q2 earnings, and enjoyed strong results. Full Story
The bear market in gold is over. We are now in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. Meanwhile, the dollar appears to have entered a bear market and may possibly continue lower until mid-October. Full Story
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, wraps up a discussion on Fox News with Neil Cavuto to shed some light on the total solar eclipse. Our guest notes the potential implications for the financial markets. Arch finds scientific basis for much of the stress on society - tidal forces and solar flux impact the Northern Hemisphere at peak levels during the eclipse. The intense ionization in the upper atmosphere, potentially impacts investor behavior. Full Story
With the metals providing us with the pullback we were expecting in our report last weekend (Aug 12-13), they continued to push higher from that pullback. Moreover, the structure continues to look quite bullish. However, the only question the market has yet to answer is if we see one more drop before the parabolic rally commences, or if we simply begin to rally strongly from here. Full Story
The U.S. Shale Oil Industry is in serious trouble as its debt spirals higher due to its massive production decline rates. While the Mainstream media continues to put out hype that the shale oil industry can produce oil at $30 or $40 a barrel, the reality shows that it’s becoming difficult just to finance its debt. Full Story
The Petro-Dollar is dead. It had served so well for over 40 years in maintaining the USDollar as global currency reserve, while keeping tight the controls on geopolitical power. The link between crude oil and the USDollar has been broken, painfully evident since 2016 with a harsh price decline that cannot rise about the $50 level. It remains stuck below that level despite heavy collusion in a demonstration that OPEC is dead defunct also. A void has been created in the energy sector, a most important sector. Enter Russia and China to fill the void. Full Story
Gold is challenging the $1300 level for the third time this year. If it breaks upwards out of this consolidation phase convincingly, it could be an important event, signalling a dollar that will continue to weaken. The factors driving the dollar lower are several and disparate. The US economy is sluggish relative to the rest of the world, the rise of Asia from which America is excluded is unstoppable, geopolitics are shifting away from US global dominance, and the end is in sight for monopolistic payment for oil in US dollars. Full Story
This is astonishing. According to the Fed’s dual mandate, the Fed is supposed to seek maximum employment while stabilizing prices and moderating long-term interest rates. In plain English, the Fed is supposed to pursue solid economic growth, with maximum employment, while keeping inflation on an even keel. Today the Fed is finding that employment is very strong, the economy is relatively strong, and inflation is weak. According to all Fed models this is impossible. Full Story
On the afternoon of Monday, August 21, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin, and Kentucky Congressman Brett Guthrie took a visit to the vault of the US Mint’s gold depository in Fort Knox, Kentucky, a vault which, according to the US Treasury, holds gold bars containing 147,341,858 fine troy ounces of gold (4583 tonnes of gold). Full Story
According to the most recent report on the U.S. Financial Institutions Derivatives trading activity, the U.S. banks held a record amount of precious metals contracts in the first quarter of 2017. Not only did the U.S. banks report a record amount of precious metals contracts, they also held a record amount in notional value of commodity and equity derivative contracts. Full Story
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved down close to 600 points off of the high that was struck on August 8th into August 21st lows. Now in percentage terms, this 600 point move is quite a small only representing a move of just 2.6%. In fact, at today’s close, the Dow was only down some 1.2% off of the August 8th high. Furthermore, the move down into the August 21st lows has still not even breached the top of the upper support zone. Full Story
It's not that difficult. Either buy metals when you have some surplus investible funds, and/or do so on a regular, dollar-cost-average basis. If the "China card" never gets played, you'll still do well as metals' prices advance over the coming years. You'll have been purchasing "paid-up insurance" for the rest of your holdings, hedging more as time goes on. And one more thing. Don't think of it as "spending money" on buying gold and silver. You're simply exchanging continually-depreciating "paper promises" – the enduring term coined by David Morgan at TheMorganReport.com – for "honest money" which has stood the test for millennia and will likely continue for as far as the eye can see. Full Story
Back on July 15th, the title to my weekend update to members of my market analysis service was “Market Will Likely Top Within The Next Three Weeks.” My initial target region for this top was between 2487-2500SPX. One of the factors I considered in my timing for this potential top was Luke Miller’s Bayesian Timing model, which was looking for a top to our wave (3) on August 9th. And, as we know, the market topped on August 8th at 2491SPX, and we seem to have begun the multi-month pullback/consolidation we have been expecting. Full Story
The thing about cycles is they’re so obvious when you’re looking in the rearview mirror. “This cycle peaked here, this one peaked there.” It’s difficult, though, when you’re looking forward. There’s nothing but a blank slate ahead of you to know when these cycles are going to start and when they’re going to end. So I’m not a great analyzer of cycles—I’ve never really met anybody who is—but you can learn a lot by looking back at them. Full Story
After rallying almost $100 an ounce from the July lows of about $1210 (basis December futures), gold is consolidating its gains. Fundamentally, there isn’t much immediate time frame news from either the fear trade or the love trade. That’s the root cause of this sideways price action, and its healthy. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with an in depth discussion on the financial markets and the Bitcoin (BTC) revolution. Since his last visit, BTC has more than doubled soaring from under $2,000 to over $4,500 and the crypto market cap has topped $145 billion. Bob suggests the current price could be nearing an ultimate top. The host presents a competing scenario with the help of the work of a top Elliott Wave technician in London. Full Story
The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times now, and is publicly considering another five increases, for a total increase of roughly 2.25%. What will be the impact on the national debt and deficits if the interest payments on the debt jump upwards because of the actions of the Fed? Full Story
In August 2007, those of us gathered in Hungary were watching history, a history that has not yet run its course. The August 2007 global credit contraction was a signal that something was wrong. Fatally wounded by the removal of gold from the international monetary system in 1971, the wheels of the bankers’ powerful juggernaut of credit and debt were beginning to come off. Full Story
The stock market crash story is getting boring and annoying to a large degree. Since 2009, there has been a constant drumbeat of the market is going to crash stories. In 2009, many experts felt that the market had rallied too strongly and that it needed to pull back strongly before moving higher up. They were calling for 15%-20% correction. Ten years later and most of them are still waiting for this so-called strong correction or crash. Full Story
That didn’t take long at all. Just a few weeks after the Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports for gold and silver turned positive – setting off a nice rally in both metals’ prices – this indicator has flipped back to strongly negative. In gold especially, speculators (always wrong at big turning points) have loaded up on long futures contracts while closing out their short positions. The commercials (always right at big turning points) have done the opposite, closing out long positions and going aggressively short. Full Story
Perhaps it is time to do a sanity check...We blame the Russians but the election fraudsters are us....Legislation to regulate cow and sheep flatulence – how charming!...One of the mandates of the Fed is “stable prices.” Hmmmm! Full Story
Last week the XIV saw the largest price drop in over a year falling over 23% from the July 26th High. After bottoming on August 10th the XIV moved back higher stalling out just under the 61.8% retrace level in what counted best as a corrective move higher. Full Story
For more than a decade and a half, my friend Alexander Green has been educating and entertaining investors as editor of numerous popular newsletters, many of which I’ve cited in my own writing. For those of you subscribed to one or more of his services through the Oxford Club or Investment U, I’m sure you’ll agree that Alex is among the finest financial writers working today. His articles are brimming with intelligence, wisdom, humor and candor—all of which he brings to his public appearances at investment conferences. Full Story
Joseph Grosso - Golden Arrow, Executive Chairman, CEO, and President, of Golden Arrow returns to the show. Joseph Grosso has spearheaded mineral exploration ventures in Argentina for over twenty years. Headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, Golden Arrow is a silver producer, mineral explorer and prospect generator. Golden Arrow is a member of the Grosso Group, a management company specialized in resource exploration. Full Story
Investors have been well-trained in complacency. They have spent the past few years watching markets shrug off momentous geopolitical events – each more quickly than the last. Brexit’s impact faded within days. Trump’s election faded within hours. Stocks traded at all-time highs this summer and volatility made all-time lows. That is the set-up as we head into the fall... Full Story
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium with a 3.42 percent gain. Citi forecasts a continued drop in diesel market share in Europe, while Russia’s largest palladium producer boasted of strong auto demand. Gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are bullish for a ninth week, the longest run since March. Gold climbed higher this week after the dollar weakened following Federal Reserve minutes that showed lingering concerns over low inflation, reports Bloomberg. Worries over U.S. economic policy also pushed the yellow metal higher, after the nation’s top CEOs’ rupture with President Trump. Full Story
The US economic boom that followed the bust of 2007-2009 is still in progress. It has been longer than average, but at the same time it has been unusually weak. The weakness is even obvious in the government’s own heavily-manipulated and positively-skewed data. For example, the following chart shows that during the current boom* the year-over-year growth rate of real GDP peaked at only 3.3% and has averaged only about 2.0%. Why has the latest boom been so weak and what does this say about the severity of the coming bust? Full Story
BullionStar is proud to present our exclusive interview with the legendary American investor, Mr. Jim Rogers. In this exclusive interview, Mr. Jim Rogers shares his perspectives on the global economy and on gold. The interview touches on the potential catastrophe in the global economy and the opportunities it brings, the importance of acquiring physical gold and silver for insurance, Singapore being one of the best countries to acquire bullion and much more. Full Story
There’s no denying these are quite interesting times, in a Chinese curse sort of way. Only an asteroid on a collision course with Earth, or an ISIS nuclear detonation, could make the world seem any more interesting than it already is. Under the circumstances, it’s tempting to predict that, any day now, the stock market will recalibrate itself to the grim realities of a civilization in eclipse, and, more urgently, to a Trump presidency dangerously adrift. Full Story
Most false or irrational ideas about money are not new. For example, take the idea that government can just fix the price of one monetary asset against another. Some people think that we can have a gold standard by such a decree today. This idea goes back at least as far as the Coinage Act of 1792, when the government fixed 371.25 grains of silver to the same value as 24.75 grains of gold, or a ratio of 15 to 1. This caused problems because the market valued silver a bit lower than that. Full Story
As for the precious metals, gold shot above and closed below our 1st target of 1300 on Friday and HUI broke above, and closed below short-term resistance. Despite that little head fake the sector is constructive insofar as the stock market seemed to change character and did not put on an op/ex Friday relief (short covering) rally, implying a waning of confidence. But the gold sector has not technically confirmed. Full Story
With regard to the stock market, some people are true perma-bears while others merely adopt a bearish outlook when indicators suggest trouble ahead. There’s a big difference between the two. Call it nature, nurture, or something else, but some people have a reliably bearish outlook. You know before they say a word which way they will lean. The same is true of perpetual bulls. Full Story
The key has been the strong rebound in Gold/FC and the breakout in Gold/Equities. Gold/FC has broken above two trendlines and is now testing its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, Gold/Equities has broken above one trendline and has regained its 200-day moving average. It would be very bullish for Gold if Gold/FC pushed through its 200-day moving average while Gold/Equities pushed above trendline 2. Those moves would likely accompany a Gold breakout through $1300/oz but more importantly, they would put Gold in a position of trading above its 200-day moving average in nominal terms and against the major asset classes (stocks, bonds, currencies). Full Story
Years ago I built this 40 year chart for the $COMPQ which I call the, “HISTORY CHART OF THE END OF THE WORLD.” One day I thought about all the events that I’ve experienced as a trader and decided to put them on a chart to see what it looked like. In hindsight I wish I had put the end of the world events on the INDU or the SPX, but I put them on the COMPQ which still gives you a feel for what happened in the past. Full Story
Unfortunately for precious metals investors, there continues to be a great deal of misinformation about how much gold there is in the world. The biggest culprit that confuses precious metals investors is what I call, LOUSY CONSPIRACIES. Those who promote these unsound conspiracies aren’t able to differentiate between FACTS and FICTION. Full Story
Conventional wisdom holds that with central banks’ beginning to throw their experimental policies into reverse the strings holding the asset price boom together are slowly being cut. No disagreement here. But while the divergence between the fundamentals and asset prices suggests things like equities are in/near bubble territory, the bond market is not so much a ‘bubble’ as simply a rigged game. Some would disagree… Full Story
More volatility is the name of summer trading. Large moves are coming out of nowhere as the US government crumbles around us. Enjoy the show as much as it’s possible since we will likely never see anything like it again, at least that is my hope. Stocks remain choppy and fast moving so I’m very cautious. Metals are also wild and trying, but failing, then trying, and failing to move into a bullish posture. Except of course Palladium, who’s looking at blue skies. Full Story
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