The junior gold miners have largely been shunned over the past year or so, condemned to listlessly drift near lows. Their stock prices have suffered serious collateral damage from stubbornly-bearish gold sentiment. But they are faring much better under the hood than their battered visages suggest, with their latest quarterly results revealing strong fundamentals. Juniors are ready to soar when gold sentiment turns. Full Story
Earlier this year when President Trump began beating the drums loudly, causing fear of a trade war (and assuring us that such a conflict could be easily won), I cautioned that he had no idea the trouble he was courting . Based on his spectacular misunderstanding of the power dynamic built in to international trade, he was also in danger of bringing a knife to a gunfight. Full Story
The prediction-fatigue that has set in among doomsayers and their (our) audience makes it pointless to claim that “this is the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” since the camel should have died years ago and yet somehow is still wandering around. The student loan bailout is just one more thing on a very long list. Full Story
Let’s take a second look at the drivers of gold. We have already stated that the three most important factors are: the real interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and the risk aversion. Fair enough. But we have presented just the first approximation. We need to dig deeper. Why? Full Story
Peter Schiff, head of SchiffGold, Euro Pacific Capital, and Euro Pacific Gold Fund (EPGFX) returns with market commentary. Our guest expects fireworks in the gold and silver shares market, as Fed policymakers backpedal on rate hikes. To save the domestic economy from deflationary collapse, policymakers will turn dovish and expand the balance sheet in the next round of quantitative easing. Full Story
The question I posed in the title of this article has been debated ad nauseum by market participants for decades. While we clearly have “cycles” analysts who claim that the market can be timed, there are significantly more doubters than believers. Full Story
The U.S. and global economies are choking on a massive amount of debt. While Wall Street and the Mainstream financial media continue to rationalize the skyrocketing debt as merely the cost of doing business, the disintegrating fundamentals point to an economic catastrophe in the making. Full Story
Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors rejoins the show with comments on the global financial bubble. This could be the most exciting time in 400 years for investors, amid robust economic conditions in US equities as well as industrial commodities. The blockchain revolution will transform the field of finance and economics through frictionless and virtually anonymous transactions. Full Story
For those of you that have followed me through the years, you would know that I utilize Elliott Wave analysis to track the markets I follow within the context of both their smaller and larger cycles. And, to that end, you would know that I am neither a perma-bull nor a perma-bear. Rather, I see the market as it is, and not as I believe it should be. Full Story
The message from the recent FOMC minutes is clear: brace yourself for the interest rate hike next month. Should gold bulls be worried? Gold’s reaction shows that not necessarily. You will find more details in our today’s analysis. Full Story
The 10-year Treasury yield has been the topic of conversation lately among fixed-income investors. Earlier this month, the T-note closed above 3 percent for the first time since July 2011, prompting some market watchers to call time on the three-decade Treasury bull market. (Bond prices fall as yields rise, and vice versa.) For other investors, these concerns might extend into the $3.8 trillion municipal bond market. Full Story
We can argue about the definition(s) of inflation until the cows come home - some economists spend a career trying to nail it down. But for clarity's sake, we'll use the definition of the Austrian School (Mises.org) as an increase in the money supply. This is really the correct one, regardless of any bias of dogma, "schooling" or the mainstream media. Although most everyone defines inflation as an increase in the price of goods and services, this is actually a result. Full Story
I was flying back from giving a presentation in Vancouver last week and browsed through the financial publications at an airport newsstand, scanning to see what passes as mainstream advice these days. I spotted Money Magazine’s May issue and saw an article titled “5 Ways to Invest if You’re Worried About a Crash.” My curiosity was piqued—surely they’ll mention gold… right? Full Story
Could the next recession be upon us? In his latest video, Mike Maloney shows five startling pieces of evidence that add up to bad news for the US economy... Full Story
As part of Merk's in-house research we regularly evaluate a consistent set of charts covering the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies. The aim is to keep our eyes open and to look through the noise of the headlines, avoiding the distractions of sensationalized click-bait. In sharing this content, we offer a cross-check to your own thinking and aim to add value to your own process. Full Story
The hyperinflations of past centuries have hurt the poor and middle classes more than the wealthy because they owned real assets. Hyperinflation destroys savings, assets, purchasing power and retirement expectations, along with moral values. The value of the currency is smashed. The economy “resets” and life goes on, albeit much changed. Hard assets such as real estate, fine art, land, gold and silver fare better than many other assets. Full Story
For those that follow me regularly, you will know that I have been tracking a set-up for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), which I analyze as a proxy for the gold market. I also believe that gold can outperform the general equity market once we confirm a long-term break out has begun, and I still think we can see it in occur in 2018. This week, I will provide an update to GLD. Full Story
The mortgage market is already feeling the effects of the past year’s rate increase, with 30-year fixed loans nearly a full percentage point higher. One explanation for the minimal supply of houses on the market is that exiting homeowners have lower-rate mortgages than they’ll be able to get if they sell and buy something else, so why sell? Full Story
In yesterday’s analysis, we explained how it’s possible for the precious metals sector to move higher in very short term and at the same time still form the next local bottom close to $1,250. The key part of the analysis was that this week’s turning point may turn out to be declines’ starting, not ending. We also argued that we could see a small decline in the USD Index and that might be enough to cool down traders’ emotions. It seems that we have seen just that, and now the question is: how soon can we expect gold to decline? Full Story
Putting this all together, it's fair to assume—and very likely—that we will soon see a significant rally in COMEX gold that is timed to begin sometime in early June, either just before or just after the FOMC of June 12-13. On your final chart this week, you can see that a rally of just 10% from here would take price to $1,420 or so and well above the breakout level of $1,400 that, since late last year, we've been forecasting to occur by late summer 2018. Full Story
Bloomberg News today begins publishing a four-part excerpt from a new book about the U.S. government's devaluation of the dollar, repudiation of debt, and confiscation of monetary gold in 1933. The book is titled "American Default -- The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and the Battle over Gold," and it's written by Sebastian Edwards, Henry Ford II professor of international economics at the University of California at Los Angeles. Full Story
Gold failed to breakout in the spring and recently lost weekly support at $1310. Meanwhile, the gold stocks have held up well in recent weeks (considering Gold) but still have much to prove. Silver couldn’t rally much when its net speculative position was at an all time low. The question now is where do things go from here. The price action is not bullish but with a Fed hike looming and negative sentiment, Gold could be poised to snapback after testing lower levels. Full Story
Amateur investors should focus on $100 per ounce price sales for gold. From the recent $1375 area highs, that makes my $1280 support zone even more important for accumulators of the world’s mightiest metal. Some investors are concerned that rising oil prices will increase the AISC (all-in sustaining costs) of miners significantly. That was a legitimate concern during the past two decades when deflation and collapsing money velocity ruled the gold stocks roost. Full Story
BullionStar's 'Gold Market Charts' is a series of articles covering topical developments in the world's major physical gold markets. These topics include sovereign gold reserve accumulation by Russia and China, gold demand in the wider Chinese gold market, Swiss gold imports and exports, and gold flows into and out of the London Gold Market. The analysis uses gold charts made available by the GOLD CHARTS R US market charting website. Full Story
Last week I had the pleasure to attend Consensus 2018 in New York, the premiere gathering for the who’s who in blockchain, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Attendance doubled from last year to an estimated 8,500 people, all of them packed in a Hilton built for only 3,000. Ticket sales alone pulled in a whopping $17 million, while event booths—the largest of which belonged to Microsoft and IBM—generated untold millions more. Full Story
Geopolitically, it’s a big net negative for the US, since the main beneficiaries are countries that are at best frenemies and at worst flat-out threats. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are all big oil exporters and will, to varying degrees, use the coming windfall to do things that liberal democracies will not appreciate. Full Story
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal. Short term is on sell signals. The cycle is up. COT data is supportive for overall higher metal prices. We are holding gold-related ETFs for long-term gain. Full Story
The current gold’s outlook seems to be bearish. The trade wars diminished, reducing the safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Inflation is still moderate in America. U.S. interest rates are rising (the 10-year yield has broken above 3.05 percent for the first time since 2011), making the greenback more attractive versus its major peers. And the Fed is expected to further raise the federal funds rate at the next meeting. Full Story
Gold’s breach of nearby support last week freaked out some longs of a nervous disposition, but it did no technical damage of any significance, as we can see on our latest 3-year shown chart below on which we can observe that it is still above important supporting trendlines. This chart shows that last week’s drop was just a “storm in a teacup”. Recall that the pattern that has been forming since mid-2016, for nearly two years now, is the Right Shoulder of its giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom that may be viewed on the 8-year chart in the last Gold Market update. Full Story
Practically nobody enters the foreign exchange markets looking to buy and hold. Currency trading is generally a short-term game, and there isn’t much regard for analysis of the longer-term fundamentals. That much is evident given the ongoing rally in the Federal Reserve Note dollar, despite its outlook being downright grim. Full Story
The best performing metal this week was silver, down just 1.34 percent. Both gold and silver stabilized by Wednesday, after real yields surged about 9 basis points the first few days of the week, and then largely traded sideways the rest of the week. Despite the dollar the interest rates continued higher, but at a slower pace. Full Story
Ah, Italy. My people; fun to be around, a nightmare to govern. And now an existential threat to the European Union, the euro currency, and the global bond markets. After suffering for over a decade under a monetary regime designed by and for efficient economies like Germany, the Italian people have finally said enough, giving a majority of their votes in this month’s election to parties that promise relief – though rather different forms of relief – from the burdens of a stable currency. Full Story
Sometimes, downward falling gold and silver prices can quickly reach a bottom, and on occasion, violent reversals in PM prices do happen from a bottom. Still, you won’t find me predicting crashes to $1,200 gold or $10 silver or parabolic rises to $10,000 gold or $100 silver, because sensational predictions to the downside serve about as much purpose as sensational click-bait headlines to the upside. Besides driving traffic to the upside, they provide little to no education about the future of gold and silver prices. Full Story
In a blog post a week ago I discussed why silver’s Commitments of Traders (COT) situation was nowhere near as bullish as it had been portrayed in numerous articles over the preceding two months. This prompted some criticism that involves a misunderstanding of how I use the COT data. Before I address the criticism, a brief recap is in order. Full Story
The price of gold moved considerably lower in the past several weeks, despite the pause that we saw in the final part of the previous week. The yellow metal moved below $1,300 and confirmed this move by several daily closes below it. Moreover, gold confirmed the breakdown below the rising medium-term support line that’s based on the daily closing prices of December 2016 and December 2017 lows. Consequently, gold’s likely to move lower and the question is how low can gold decline in the near term. Full Story
Money has a dual function. Please allow us to go deeper, and more philosophical than we typically do. We promise to tie this into our ongoing discussion of capital consumption. In the following, we will discuss some examples that use the dollar. We are not conceding that the dollar is money (i.e. the most marketable good, or the extinguisher of debt). We just need some simple cases to consider the medium of exchange. Today, that medium is obviously not gold but the dollar. Full Story
Raghee Horner of SimplerTrading, with 3 decades of trading experience and the author of 3 books, makes her show debut. Gold and cryptocurrencies remain favorite trading markets of our guest; investors are advised to ignore the Bitcoin FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). Part II. with Bix Weir of RoadtoRoot-A continues the review of the ever evolving crypto-revolution, including the ascent of Ethereum and its key competitors. Full Story
Bubbles and crashes occur throughout history. There actually doesn’t appear to be any set frequency as to when crashes will happen. Since 1950 we note crashes (not necessarily U.S. stock market crashes) in 1962 (Kennedy Flash Crash), 1973–1974 (oil, Watergate), 1980 (gold), 1987 (Black Monday), 1990 (Iraq, Oil), 1991 (Japan), 1992 (Pound Sterling), 1997 (Asian Financial Crisis), 1998 (Russia), 2000 (dot-com), 2001-2002 (9/11, dot-com), 2008 (global financial crisis), 2010 (EU), 2013 (gold), and 2015 (China). Full Story
Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10–12 years. Full Story
Of course gold price suppression is not a topic that facilitates invitations to appear on financial news programs on television, which seems to be a big part of Grant's work. (Indeed, your secretary/treasurer doesn't even get invited to CMRE meetings anymore.) But if Grant continues to be frequently disappointed in the gold price, he might find some consolation in better understanding why gold is disappointing him. Full Story
Since leaving my job as a corporate design manager to analyze and trade cryptos (among other things), I’ve gained new attention from old colleagues. In circles of my former profession, I’m the guy that retired to trade for a living. While my departure from corporate life was something I planned for many years, cryptos certainly gave those plans a shot in the arm. Full Story
Few Americans realize that the U.S. economy is being propped up by the Shale Oil Industry. However, the shale oil industry is nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme, so when it collapses, it will take down the U.S. economy with it. Unfortunately, the reason few Americans understand how lousy the economics are in producing shale oil and gas is due to the misinformation and propaganda being put out by the industry and energy analysts. Full Story
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