By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 25 March, 2016
The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs. Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets. Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March before embarking on a strong spring rally in April and May. With gold stocks back in a bull, their seasonality warrants consideration. Full Story
The US national debt (official only) currently exceeds $19 Trillion, up from $398 Billion in 1971, $5.6 Trillion in 2000, and $10.1 Trillion in October 2008. National debt has increased at a compounded (exponential) annual rate of about 9% per year since 1971. Does anyone expect the debt will be repaid, reduced, or even stabilized? I think it is clear that the debt will be rolled over and increased until it must be inflated away or defaulted. This is political and central bank supported monetary madness. Exponential increases inevitably end badly. Full Story
Among all the choices you have for gold and silver bullion, genuinely historic metal is still around at reasonable prices. The runaway classic is ninety-percent U.S. silver coinage. Full Story
As I was stomping around the house looking for my cowering Labrador yesterday afternoon, I think I was mumbling something about "no good rotten ba$tards" in reference to the blatant price control exerted yesterday in Europe and North America in stocks, Forex, and, of course, the precious metals because, after all, they simply couldn't allow stocks and the Euro to crash and precious metals to soar in response to the murders perpetrated in Brussels on Tuesday. Full Story
A "golden cross", with the 55 day moving average crossing above the 200 day moving average with both of them on a rising trend, and the share price above both these moving averages, has now occurred. This is generally taken by traders to indicate the bear trend has reversed, and a bull market is now in place. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 25 March, 2016
The most important fundamental driver of the gold market that hasn’t yet begun to move in a gold-bullish direction is the US yield curve, represented on the following chart by the 10yr-2yr yield spread. The yield curve is bullish for gold when it is getting steeper, as indicated by a rising 10yr-2yr yield spread (a rising line on the following chart). With the 10yr-2yr yield spread having recently made a new 8-year low and not yet shown any sign of reversing upward, the yield curve remains unequivocally gold-bearish. Full Story
I bought some Mexican gold on Monday. Old gold. Pre-World War II stuff. Two-peso coins slightly smaller than a U.S. dime that Mexicans used to carry around in their pockets — only these are not all banged up and gnarly like normal pocket change. They’re all in uncirculated or “about uncirculated” condition, meaning they’re really nice coins. Full Story
As noted previously, there is a world of difference between markets that stop going down because the bears see little prospect of forging new lows and markets that actually are starting serious uptrends. Just because a market does not want to move down into fresh lows does not mean it is ready for a rip-roaring bull. It can often mean, and more and more I am coming around to thinking this is the present case, that traders expect Central Bank policy to be able to prop up the economies but also do little if nothing to create an environment in which sustained long term growth is likely. Full Story
It should be said that it’s far too late in the game to perform surgery that would assure a healthy Canada, if and when the US takes its dive. It’s not, however, too late for Canadians to create individual diversification of investment. They may still sell off their homes and choose to rent for the next few years (better to lose a little than a lot). They may also move their money out of financial institutions and into precious metals in an offshore depository. And if they wish to own property, they might choose to buy land or built property in a jurisdiction that promises to survive the coming economic debacle better than their home country. Full Story
Ask any casual observer of the silver market what happened to the metal over the past five years and you’re likely to hear how the price fell from nearly $50 in April 2011 to under $14 at recent lows – a stunning decline of 70%. If you inquire further, you’ll likely hear a number of reasons for the decline, ranging from an oversupply of the metal, a strengthening dollar, falling inflation rates, and the collapse of the commodities markets. Full Story
Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors. Our guest says a new cyclical PMs bull market is underway - he favors the PMs shares. US dollar weakness may indicate a top is in place. The FOMC has lost control of the economy, backpedaling on rate hikes and returning to a more dovish stance. Full Story
The shouts of warning are finally starting to come out from official bodies. Since the collapse of the oil and gas market, we have been writing about the fact that we haven't seen the worst yet. As I have previously written, Canada and Russia are two countries that have been absolutely devastated by the crashing oil markets. The oil and gas crash has racked the Canadian economy and resulted in massive layoffs in the industry and those that support it. Yet the ripple effect has yet to take full effect and the corresponding regulatory bodies are just starting to take notice. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 24 March, 2016
There were two record-breaking silver factors in 2015 that could turn out to be quite an interesting development for 2016. The figures that make up these separate factors don’t seem so striking until we combine them and study at the trends. This is what I enjoy doing the most. Why? Because I can see interesting developments that aren’t readily apparent when we look at the figures or data individually. By combing this data, we can spot noteworthy trends that could likely set up the market for stunning future price movements in silver. Full Story
The retracement move in gold gathered downside momentum Wednesday, falling in morning trading by more than 2.5 percent and below 1220 for the first time in four weeks. With gold looking to test support from its February breakout, our near-term target of around 1190 appears in play. All things considered, we remain open minded towards the timeframe and ultimate magnitude of the retracement and would generally expect a sharper and more extreme move down (as our yen comparative suggested) to complete quicker. A close below 1190 and we would be looking for another large capitulation reversal over the immediate sessions. Full Story
Nothing short of rising rates could put a damper on share buybacks, and that is not something that will occur anytime soon. The second option is for Congress to pass new laws making restricting companies from blatantly repurchasing their shares with the sole intention of raising their earnings per share. As Congress shares the same bed with these corporate giants, don’t expect such a law to come into effect shortly. Full Story
India has had a long-standing love affair with gold. At Indian weddings, some of the brides get so much gold jewellery that it weighs them down. There are upwards of 15 million weddings every year in India. According to the World Gold Council, upwards of 50% of Indian demand for gold is destined for weddings. Gold is ingrained in the culture and a part of their belief system. Not only is it integral to weddings, gifts of gold are common for anniversaries, birthdays and religious festivals. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital - 23 March, 2016
Given the deteriorating economic outlook, I believe there can be little doubt that the Fed will soon complete the capitulation process and remove all expectations for additional hikes this year. Even before that happens, savvy observers should have already concluded that the Federal Reserve is stuck in the monetary mud just as firmly now as it has been since the dawn of the financial crisis back in 2008. Full Story
Compare the Great Depression to the Great Recession, and you’ll see a similar pattern in how the Dow Jones Industrial Average graphs out. That pattern appears to be repeating now. The nation’s most notorious stock market crash in 1929 did not occur as a single fall off a cliff, but started with high points that rounded downward as the market bounced off a lowering ceiling; then it experienced a sharp plunge for about a month, then rallied, and then it experienced the huge crash we’ve heard about all our lives. After that, it experienced many more rallies and crashes before it found its absolute bottom. Full Story
Harry S. Dent Jr., says gold is far more appealing that US stocks on a valuation basis, noting: "I would buy gold over US shares any day of the week." Thanks to Fed rate tapering, funds have been redirected into commodities, especially gold. Our guest notes that gold is the best inflation hedge available to investors. Given that the future is rarely 100% knowable, a 10-20% gold / silver investment portfolio component is advisable. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 23 March, 2016
In Venezuela's case the objective is plain: The kleptocratic regime that has driven the country into the ground needs foreign currency, for which the national patrimony is being pawned. But what are the Fed's purposes with gold swaps? And if Morantes is correct that "all" central banks undertake gold swaps, what are their purposes? What are they doing in the gold business? Is the objective similar to that of gold leasing by central banks, which, as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress in 1998, was undertaken to hold the gold price down? Full Story
Most market participants are awaiting a “certain” market pullback, with many pointing to the latest Commitment of Trader’s reports as their support for such a pullback. But, I can honestly say that I am not as certain we get any pullback right now, especially if we are not able to break below immediate support. In fact, the markets have set up in place to continue to rally in the upcoming week. Full Story
Over the last quarter we have seen a large run up in the price of gold from $1061 on January 1st, to a high of $1284 on March 11th. This large and swift increase in price has created a lot of bullish sentiment among investors who once again have declared the bear market over, although what actually appears to have been set up, is another dangerous bear market trap. Full Story
Let’s look at the political angst over trade deficits. A trade deficit is when people in one country buy more from another country than the other country’s people buy from them. There cannot be a trade deficit in a true economic sense. Let’s examine this. Full Story
For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis. All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $20 trillion in debt to the US system. Full Story
A batch of mixed economic data was released this week and last that underlines continued strength among U.S. businesses and manufacturers. But consumer confidence still seems to be held back by the global slowdown, central bank policy concerns and other factors. This suggests investors should remain cautious and might want to consider assets that have demonstrated an ability to preserve capital in times of uncertainty—gold and short-term municipal bonds among them. Full Story
The data above indicates that the race between renewable energy and fossil fuels is over; the inflection point was hit back in 2013 when 143 gigawatts of renewable energy were added versus 141 gigawatts that came from traditional power plants that burn fossil fuels. If you look at the chart above, the trend is expected to gain momentum in the years to come. In most cases, the cost of solar energy is on par if not cheaper than grid electricity. Full Story
According to data released by the Swiss customs department on Tuesday, Venezuela has net exported 11 tonnes of gold to Switzerland in February 2016. In January Venezuela net exported 36 tonnes of gold to Switzerland, in total 48 tonnes was moved in the first two months of this year. Full Story
America was built by “citizen champions”. Should the current gold price action be described in a similar way, as a “rally of champions”? I think so. Technically, gold is arguably overbought. It may be due for a correction according to cycle analysis, and yet the world’s mightiest metal just keeps moving relentlessly higher. Full Story
Yesterday, I wrote of gold’s “battle for $1,250/oz” – in watching the Cartel desperately defend its latest naked-shorting-defended “line in the sand,” as intently as it did at the key round numbers of $1,100, $1,150, and $1,200. Sure enough, “Economic Mother Nature’s” forces overcame them all – just as they will at $1,250, $1,300, and points beyond; and in silver’s case, $16/oz for starters, until it inevitably makes its “ultimate quadruple top breakout” above $50. Hopefully sooner rather than later – but holding physical metal, that can’t be pried but from my cold, dead hands – I can afford to wait. Full Story
They don’t like Trump because he says he’ll work things out with Putin…Trump also says we’ve got to reinvestigate 9/11 – well this drives the neocons wild. You have to ask yourself, if the 9/11 story was true, why would the neocons care if it was reinvestigated? But they are so opposed to it that there has to be something wrong with the story. Full Story
The United States Geological Survey recently published its silver summary and it turned out to be yet another record year of global mine production for silver. The 2015 estimate will be revised, but in the last twenty years, only four years (2000, 2003, 2005, and 2011) have been revised downwards in the subsequent summary. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 22 March, 2016
If we compare the Dow Jones Index to Silver, we can spot a troubling trend. Normally when a stock price or index increases, so does the trading volume. This was true for the Dow Jones Index from 2002-2009. If we look at the chart below, we can see a normal market… increasing stock value and subsequent trading activity. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 22 March, 2016
Unfortunately, in the early part of a new long-term trend there is usually no way to know, for sure, that the trend has changed. In gold’s case there is evidence that a cyclical bull market has begun, but the evidence is not yet conclusive. That’s why it is prudent to take information such as the COT data at face value. Full Story
During a trip to New York last week I was able to talk gold and commodities on Bloomberg TV, and also had the pleasure of hearing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau address Wall Street investors in the Bloomberg studios the same day. Trudeau discussed his plan for new infrastructure spending of C$60 billion over the next 10 years, as a means to lift the country’s highly oil-dependent economy. Full Story
It's important to note, though, that this DOES NOT mean that a price raid of $100 or more is imminent. With price still well above all of its key moving averages, there are still plenty of bids on the dips...witness today's bounce of $5 from the earlier lows. However, unless a sudden surge of new Spec buyers materializes that drives open interest to 550,000 or more, it's going to be very difficult for new highs to be attained. Full Story
The price of silver, as indicated by the ratio to the DJIA, is near a multi-decade low. Expect the price of silver to rally substantially in 2016 – 2020. $50 silver is coming, probably fairly soon. $100 silver will take longer. Full Story
There’s an old saying – he who laughs last – laughs loudest and longest. Applied to the financial markets, and more specifically those markets that represent man’s innovation (stocks) set against those grounded in more earthly concerns (commodities), in looking at the situation right now, it appears we are at point of ‘peak optimism’. Those in a position to truly benefit from the trend of innovation capitalization are laughing right now, with the oligarchs (tech savvy rentiers, wealthy speculators, etc.) and top-level bureaucrats cashing in ‘big time’. Full Story
Barclays thinks that the rally in commodities is overdone, and although economic data has improved, it is not enough to support current prices. With a fragile global economy still in place, the group believes that a turning point for commodities is still some way away. Full Story
The world is once again on edge. Global uncertainty, which is already at a heightened level, has exploded even higher. The cause of this escalation is the renewed jabbering from North Korea's fanatic leader, Kim Jong Un. Aggression from North Korea has been continuous since the days Kim Jong Un’s father ruled, with both threatening to destroy the world in one way or another. These talks have carried on since with the death of the former leader and the continuation of power in the hands of his son. Full Story
Bill Murphy from GATA.org kissed the Blarney stone on St. Patrick's day, which evidently sent silver flying higher by 5%. The gold to silver ratio plunged from a recent high of 83 to 79 - AG is poised for an explosive advance. Our guest says the PMs cartel has lost control of the metals markets. There has been a 100% retracement of the 2011 Chris welcomes Dr. Stephen Leeb, best selling author and head of The Complete Investor. After a string of 7 best-selling financial tomes, Dr. Leeb is writing his magnum opus on the gold market, which he refers to as the last great bull market. Full Story
Let me start off and say the longer one continues to operate under the assumption that we still have free markets the less likely you are to make money, and the more likely it is you will lose money. Folks we have virtually every central bank in the world printing money (and I think this includes the US). We have negative interest rates in many parts of the world and 0 every place else. I can say without a bit of hesitation that market intervention is now just a fact of life in modern markets. To ignore it is to ignore a very big fundamental piece of the puzzle. Full Story
Our main theme has been that the ironclad post-2011 confidence in the Federal Reserve among conventional market participants would slowly but surely start to fade because macro parlor tricks, so vigorously employed by the Bernanke Fed, were only tricks or in some cases (Operation Twist) borderline magic, after all. Full Story
By: Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, GATA - 20 March, 2016
MarketWatch tonight produces a true wonder of financial journalism. It's a story acknowledging a rumor about "conspiracy theory" involving central banks, a rumor that MarketWatch blithely declines to investigate by questioning any central banker. The rumor -- speculation, really -- is that, far from being a failure, the G-20 conference in Shanghai in February reached a secret agreement to reduce the U.S. dollar's value in the currency markets. Full Story
Gold and gold stocks have refused to correct for more than a few days at a time. Weakness is being bought and quickly. Gold has gained over $200/oz but not corrected by more than 6%. The miners (GDX) have endured three roughly 10% corrections in the past six weeks but nothing greater. A few weeks ago we noted a comparison to the 2008 rally which hinted that miners could correct 20% before moving higher. So far, no dice. Many gold bulls continue to expect a correction while losing sight of the bigger picture: precious metals are in a new bull market. Full Story
Physical and derivative gold trading at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in 2015 reached 17,033 tonnes, up by 84 % from 9,243 tonnes in 2014. Gold futures trading at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in 2015 accounted for 25,421 tonnes, up 7 % from 23,750 tonnes in 2014. Consequently, total wholesale trading volume in China (SGE + SHFE) was 42,454 in 2015, up 29 % year on year. In the New York at the COMEX total futures gold trading volume reached 128,844 tonnes for the year 2015, up 3 % from a year earlier. COMEX trading volume was three times as large as the total volume in China. Full Story
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report - 20 March, 2016
Silver Eagle sales will likely jump by 25% in the first quarter due to deteriorating market conditions. During the first three months last year the U.S. Mint sold 12 million Silver Eagles. Already, sales of Silver Eagles have reached 13 million. There are two weeks remaining in March and the U.S. Mint will likely sell another two million. This will put total Silver Eagle sales for the first quarter at 15 million….. the highest ever. Full Story
In the Fed’s March policy statement this week, a funny thing happened on the way towards acknowledging the stronger US economic data of late – they largely ignored it and buried notice beneath a blanket concern for the ailing health of the global economy. By doing so, they broke the back of the US dollar, which had already begun unwinding the overshoot – that to a great degree had been motivated by the Fed’s own projections over the past two years of a tightening cycle more comparable to previous contemporary rate hike regimes, than the realities of normalizing policy from ZIRP. Full Story
A solid week for markets as they rested well until the Federal Reserve released their statement, which kept rates the same and lowered their expectations of four rate hikes this year to two, and that’s even a stretch in my view, but I’ve been wrong before. Full Story
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