By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Intelligence - 25 November, 2016
The silver miners recently finished reporting their third-quarter results, offering a hard fundamental look into this sector. This reality check is valuable given the fierce winds of bearish sentiment buffeting silver stocks in recent months. Despite their huge correction, the elite silver miners’ fundamentals remain strong. They are producing at costs far below prevailing silver levels, with profits poised to soar as silver recovers. Full Story
The financial end of the world in economic apocalypse is here. A funny thing happened on the road to recovery: Trump’s chief strategist admitted his view of the Trumpian future looks like the Great Depression. Even the world’s largest bank just said global financial default is the preferable way out and most likely way out of the Great Recession that began in 2007/2008. That’s the new optimism. You don’t get better than all of that for an exhilarating view of the imminent future. Full Story
Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com discusses the Fed's reaction to the threat of higher inflation. With a quarter point rate hike expected in Dec and possibly 2 more in 2017, policymakers are concerned that prices are moving up to quickly. Inflation is typically a positive for the PMs markets, e.g., the 1970's inflation / PMs rally. Real interest rates will remain negative, constraining the US dollar and encouraging gold / silver purchases. Full Story
We began writing on the War on Cash some time ago, when it was still just a theoretical ploy that we believed banks and governments were likely to employ as their economic adventurism continued to unravel. But, in the last year, several countries have, as a part of the War on Cash, begun removing larger bank notes from circulation in order to force people to perform all economic transactions through the banking system, assuring that the banks would gain total control over the movement of money. Full Story
It goes without saying that a strong dovish statement from the BoJ could weaken the yen and strengthen the U.S. dollar, which would be negative for the price of gold. In a scenario of the broadening divergence in monetary policy between the major central banks, investing in gold priced in the yen (or the euro) would be a smarter choice than investing in gold priced in the U.S. dollar. Naturally, there is only one “gold” that can be purchased and the above simply means that those who hold the euro or yen and use it for purchasing gold, will likely benefit more (vs. the value of these currencies) than those, who hold the US dollars. Full Story
Respected rogue economist, John Williams of Shadowstats.com says the Great Recession of 2008-2009 is still underway, contrary to the mainline media. Although the official national unemployment rate is steady at under 5%, the true unemployment rate is at least 4 times as high at 23%. The slight of hand requires an epic cover-up on a grand scale. John Williams outlines how the PTB accomplished the feat and the economic implications. Full Story
In conclusion, the surprise money-grab by the Indian authorities intensifies the public’s perception of a corrupt, overly-bureaucratic, and ineffective government. The public’s suspicion that government paper money is ultimately worthless will have, in its collective mind at least, gained immeasurable credence. An accelerating decline in the purchasing power of the rupee is the most likely economic consequence of Mr Modi, ultimately destabilising for both the country and his government. Full Story
By: John Mauldin and Danielle DiMartino Booth - 24 November, 2016
Today, for your pre-Thanksgiving delectation, I have for you an Outside the Box with deep roots in my West Texas homeland. It comes from fellow Texan Danielle DiMartino Booth, who has graced these pages more than once this year. You’ll recall that she was a key advisor on monetary policy to Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher until his retirement last year, whereupon Danielle struck out on her own (and landed here). Full Story
I expect “cash banning” to be speeded up along with selected attacks on the alternative media - as part of a larger effort to create widespread social dissension. People believe attacks on cash and “news” are what they seem to be on the surface. They are not. They are part of a much deeper strategy that involves additional globalism. We’ve expected just these sorts of actions and have profited from them for the past several years along with our newsletter subscribers. We await more of the same. Full Story
If you’re serious about making money from investing in the financial markets, you need to be able to read the crowd… and go against it. Let me give you an example… Currently one of the consensus views is that the Gold rally is over and gold is dead as an investment. Right off the bat, you know this sentiment is at an extreme. Despite its recent sell-off, Gold is still crushing stocks in terms of performance year to date. Full Story
Most of gold’s downside is geared not to the financial decisions of millions of investors around the globe, as the mainstream media would have you believe, but rather to linear computer algorithms geared to the dollar index. The trading part of the software has been told to automatically place trades at certain correlated price levels and that is why we get these waterfall drops. The rocket launch trajectories to the upside come when the trading function is told to buy and cover the previous shorts. Full Story
Those interested in gold are always on the lookout for news regarding the amounts of gold held by Central Banks around the world. Abundant gold held by Central Banks is generally supposed to further the cause of a return to the gold standard, but strong Central Banks only represent a stronger hold of bankers upon the populations which they have been exploiting; the driving interest of the top bankers in the world is to retain their unwarranted privileges: the public interest is not a priority by any means. Full Story
I am not telling anyone to run out and short the market right now (I have zero short positions and still hold hopefully well-selected longs), but I am telling them that this is not going to end well. People managing the markets through a political lens are going to get a double whammy. Using Druckenmiller as a blueprint, they will suck on stocks hook, line and sinker and puke up gold. It will be exactly opposite to their stance last summer. Full Story
Either the markets impose discipline through a crisis of some sort, or the government adopts a policy of currency devaluation or debt forgiveness. And – in a nice ironic twist – the people who did the insanely-excessive borrowing are leaving town, to be replaced by folks who will inherit something unprecedented, with (apparently) no clear idea of what’s coming or what will be necessary in response. Full Story
Desperation is setting in. The blatant attacks on gold are occurring almost exclusively during the Comex floor-trading hours now. Every night gold pushes higher as Asia’s appetite is seemingly voracious. The two most systemically dangerous banks right now, it was revealed according to the IMF, are JP Morgan and Citibank. I’m sure part of the smash is in response to that. Full Story
A thought-provoking Atlantic article asserts that “the press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” This is ostensibly how many Trump supporters were able to excuse his more off-color language and instead focus on his proposals. Markets were willing to do the same. Now, those same markets seem to be placing their bets on the likelihood that Trump’s “America First” policies will benefit small-cap companies especially. Full Story
Gold has been trading in a downward channel from its highs at 1370 last August. I first noticed the channel when it bounced off of 1245 after a large orchestrated manipulative takedown through the 200 day MA. Election night is the anomaly, briefly breaking out of the channel. The banks quickly demonstrated their control by morning. Today, we are back at the bottom of the channel, riding the channel down for the past 7 days, and now supported by the 100 week Moving Average that Turd has brought to our attention. Full Story
Two weeks ago, I noted that we had a completed pattern to the downside in the equity market and it was time for the equity market bulls to step up. And, boy, did they ever. Now, it is time for the metals bulls to do the same. But, it seems I cannot find them. Last weekend, I noted that the bulls have gone into hiding. This past week, they were scared even further into their shell. Yes, bullish sentiment in the complex has dropped to almost nothing. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 23 November, 2016
In a 25th May blog post I wrote that an interesting divergence had developed over the preceding few weeks between these markets, with the C$ having turned downward at the beginning of May and the oil price having continued to rise. This suggested that either the currency market was wrong or the oil market was wrong. As I stated at the time, my money was on the oil market being wrong. In other words, I expected the divergence to be eliminated via a decline in the oil price. Full Story
American Silver Eagle sales have been suspended for the year according to the Authorized Purchasers of U.S. Mint products. Once again, as we have seen in the past, the U.S. Mint makes a dramatic change without warning. Where else have we recently seen a very dramatic change in policy without warning? India announced, without warning, the ban of the most widely used bank notes in the country – without warning. Full Story
Bottoms are never easy in the metals, they usually churn for a while knocking everyone off before they finally make upward headway. Unlike the stock market which rockets out of cycle lows. Full Story
For years I have calmly, patiently, and for the most part rationally, listened to friends, family, patients, and colleagues grapple with the notion of precious metals. The majority understand the basic reasons why some portion of portfolio allocation is necessary or prudent, but very few have (or will) taken action. Often, people are shocked that I would be interested in the matter to begin with. I think subconsciously people understand to be a “Doctor” is to be a teacher, but on the surface most people find it odd and uncomfortable to accept my interest and quest in something that rarely occurs to them. Full Story
Any solution regarding the mathematical inevitability of the above will create massive trauma. Consider the outrage concerning: Reduce federal employees by 5% every year for a decade. Eliminate the Federal Reserve. Cut military retirements. Eliminate half the budget for the Department of Defense. Reduce Social Security benefits by 50%. Dismantle the Medicare system. Return to a gold standard. Full Story
Eager gold stock enthusiasts can be buyers here in the $20 zone. Note the action of my 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator, at the bottom of the chart. It’s very positive right now. Also, Chinese jewellery companies are poised to begin their buying for the upcoming New Year celebratory season, and that tends to precede a great January rally for GDX. As Christmas approaches, tis the GDX season to be jolly! Full Story
In yesterday’s alert we wrote that staying on the sidelines appeared to be a good idea for the next several days as the short-term outlook became more bullish, even though the medium-term outlook became more bearish (due to the USD’s breakout). Actually, at the moment when our yesterday’s alert was sent, gold and silver’s prices were below the entry prices, so the position was closed at a profit. Full Story
Today’s rising interest rates not only predict higher borrowing costs for sovereign bonds but also the long-awaited and final breakout of gold. After gold’s spectacular rise in the summer of 2011 during the EU sovereign bond crisis, central bankers moved to ensure that gold did not threaten their ponzi-scheme of credit and debt; and with a combination of negative gold lease rates and paper gold futures, central banks drove down the price of gold down from its September 2011 high of $1920 to its 2015 low of $1150. Full Story
Let’s start by recognizing that there is absolutely no holy grail to investing or trading. Rather, we only deal in probabilities when working within non-linear markets. To that end, there are a multitude of methodologies that are utilized in the market to gain an edge in placing the greater probabilities on our side. Yet, most of the market is primarily focused on fundamental analysis, whereas technical analysis is not viewed by most as a primary focus. Full Story
It is my privilege now to welcome in Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael is a money manager who ascribes to the Austrian School of Economics and has been a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business News, and also the Money Metals Podcast. Full Story
Trump called during the campaign for a $1 trillion infrastructure package, $5 trillion in tax cuts, increases in military spending and the repeal ObamaCare, which could cost more than $350 billion over 10 years. At the same time, the president-elect has promised “not to touch” Social Security or make cuts to Medicare. The moment Trump was elected the markets immediately reacted to this potential massive fiscal injection. Bond values plummeted as yields spiked. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 November, 2016
Based on actual fills reported by subscribers, I am tracking eight Dec 9 192.50 calls with a cost basis of 0.34. Originally I’d suggested spreading them off against some short 194.50 calls, but I’ll now recommend simply offering half of them to close for 0.68, twice what we paid. If successful, we’ll hold half of the original position effectively for free. On the daily chart, DIA projects most immediately to 191.02, a ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot, and I doubt it will have trouble getting there. Full Story
Care of WikiLeaks, Anonymous, Project Veritas, and countless other whistleblowers in the modern age of hacking and global information dissemination (not to mention, the Miles Franklin Blog), the world is on a rapid “learning curve” of the public and private criminality that has occurred for decades – and how they can make a difference by exposing it. Without a doubt, Hillary Clinton would have been President if not for the tireless efforts of, for lack of a better description, “good guys” who, from myriad facets of life, took it upon themselves to prevent perhaps the most dangerous, sociopathic “politician” in U.S. history from taking office. That, and Donald Trump’s politically brilliant scheme of repeating the buzzword “rigged” each and every day, until eventually it convinced enough marginal voters that the time for change is NOW. Full Story
Our country was founded on war. We have continued to wage war for the overwhelming majority of the 240 years since our war of rebellion against a tyrannical form of government led by an absolute monarch. The founding fathers wrote the Declaration of Independence in 1776 and went to war against the king and his redcoats until they surrendered at the Treaty of Paris in 1783. These same men established a republic with the ratification of the Constitution of the United States of America in 1787. Full Story
In effect, a cash ban is an attempt to stop bank runs. The process is starting with large denominations, but it will be spreading to even small bills. The process is already underway in France, India, Spain, Uruguay, even Australia have begun implementing or preparing to implement similar schemes. This is just the start. In the coming months the Fed will be announcing similar plans for a cash ban in the US. Full Story
According to Bloomberg calculations, mine supply may fall about a third in the 10 years to 2025, with the number of newly discovered primary gold deposits already falling to three in 2014 from 37 in 1987, writes Mark O’Byrne. CEO of Randgold Resources, Mark Bristow, says gold production may peak in the next three years as miners fail to replace their reserves. The silver market is in the same boat, reports Reuters, with 2016 marking the fourth consecutive year in which the market has realized a physical shortfall. In Russia, in fact, silver production fell 9.4 percent year-over-year from January to September, and gold output declined 1.4 percent. Full Story
Now, The Donald has the gargantuan job of attempting to undo decades of damage self-serving oligarchs and bureaucrats have imposed on America, and the world. The thing to understand about what this means for the political economy of the world, is globalism, is about to get the kick in the head it deserves, and the decentralization process is about to kick into high gear. As you may know, I have seen this coming for some time – and now here we are. Full Story
We believe that millions of people can see that the quality of the dollar and its derivatives—such as the euro, pound, etc.—have falling quality. Most of them are not (today) betting that therefore an ounce of gold will buy more of them. They are in stocks or real estate, which “should keep up with inflation” they think. We wonder if their child was in the pool, if they would think that an inflatable duck would keep up with the effluent… Full Story
No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The Republican team understands they must “stand and deliver.” But as we will see in today’s letter, that is not going to be easy. I’m going to depart from the normal format of my letters, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do. Full Story
Transparency is an important concept in financial markets mainly because it encourages informational and market efficiency. Applied to the gold market for example, this would prevent larger gold traders having an information and trading advantage over the retail gold buying public such as ourselves. So transparency is not just an abstract concept, it has real world implications. Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 21 November, 2016
The prices of US government debt securities have been falling since early-July and plunged over the past two weeks. This prompts the question: Where did all the money that came out of the bond market go? It’s a trick question, because not a single dollar has left the bond market. The reason is that for every sale there has been an exactly offsetting purchase. For example, if Bill sells $100M of T-Bonds, then $100M of cash gets transferred from the account of the buyer (let’s call him Fred) to Bill’s account. Full Story
Karl Denninger, publisher of The Market Ticker, and recent author of the book Leverage: How Cheap Money Will Destroy the World, is the former CEO of MCSNet, a regional Chicago area networking and Internet company that operated from 1987 to 1998. Bill Murphy, GATA Chairman Murphy grew up in Glen Ridge, N.J., and graduated from the School of Hotel Administration at Cornell University in 1968. Full Story
I believe, that this is a huge huge move with far reaching consequences. Only time will tell if it is good or bad. But With this one master stroke, PM Modi has levelled the playing field for corrupt persons and honest people. Due to scrapping of 500 and 1000 rs. notes, now there will be an increase in the circulation of Rs. 100 notes. I sincerely believe (and hope), that the decision to introduce the Rs. 2000 note is just a stop gap arrangement. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 20 November, 2016
We’ve been using a downside target of 16.350, but if support at that Hidden Pivot fails, we’d be looking at more slippage to at least 16.165 over the near term. That’s the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown, and as you can see, a decisive breach would put a target at 15.095 in play. Alternatively, nothing less than a rally above Thursday’s 17.080 high over the next day or two will suffice to turn things around for bulls. That’s not much of a rally, but considering Silver’s weakness lately, it’s a daunting requirement. Full Story
By: Gordon T Long and Mish Shedlock - 20 November, 2016
Mish observes that "the dollar is ahead of itself, treasury yields are ahead of themselves and they are pricing in this massive inflation here that I don't think we are going to see, at least in the short term. I think there is another deflationary scare coming up first because of a global trade bust. There are some pretty severe deflationary undercurrents occurring and a collapse in global trade is a real possibility!" Full Story
Charts only ever indicate probabilities, not certainties. At the time of the last update, gold was setting up for another upleg within the uptrend shown on our 1-year chart below, but this was predicated upon the expected Clinton victory, so when Trump won instead, this scenario aborted. Observe how, early on election night, when the markets assumed Clinton would win, gold was up sharply, but by the end of the night it had reversed sharply on heavy turnover, and it went on to break down from the uptrend and head steeply lower towards the important support level shown, which it started to arrive at on Friday. Full Story
Now the long-overdue correction seems to have arrived. Gold is down 11% from its recent high, and the speculators are bailing. Here’s the Commitment of Traders (COT) report (courtesy of GoldSeek) for the week ending Tuesday the 15th showing a 17% drop in large speculator long positions. That’s a huge move for a single week. And based on the price declines of the subsequent three days, it’s likely that the next report will show a similar drop. Full Story
This large jump in U.S. silver imports is interesting as demand for the iShares Silver ETF was basically flat in August. Even though the SLV ETF silver inventories surged during the first half of the year, it was relatively flat in July and August. What I found also quite interesting is that the U.S. imported 55 mt of silver from Poland in August which was half of their total monthly mine supply. Poland produces about 105 mt of silver a month. Normally, Poland exports no more than 10-20 mt of silver a month to the United States. Full Story
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA - 20 November, 2016
While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. This has created significant technical damage in the sector and has potentially thrown the 2016 bull off course. Full Story
Gold closed down 1.27% this past week and is looking set for more downside. Support now, once again, sits at $1,180 and we should get there very quickly, likely Sunday evening in overseas trading action. This is usually a strong time of year for the metals so if we can get up and get going soon then it may be a tough 9 months or so. Full Story
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