By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 24 November, 2011
With the worsening Eurozone crisis and the failure of government to manage the U.S. debt responsibly, markets are fearful of a meltdown. Traders are driving prices down in the knowledge that many positions are geared [leveraged] and exposed to margin calls. Other positions are protected by ‘stop loss’ instructions, so can be triggered by prices moving down through support levels. Potential buyers are in no hurry to enter the market, either because they feel there is further to fall or because the volumes dictating price moves are too thin to get the sort of positions they want. Overall, the investment climate is very wintery from the bottom of the financial structures right up to the markets themselves. Full Story
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its headline US GDP number (2nd estimate) for the 3rd quarter on Tuesday. The number was revised down from 2.5% to 2%. The market had been expecting at least 2.3%. As Shadow Government Stats www.shadowstats.com points out this is little more than statistical noise. They noted that given a 95% confidence interval this number could have easily been negative as it was positive. Full Story
IS THIS a sign the Federal Reserve has run out of ammo? The latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes contain a whole section on 'Monetary Policy Strategies and Communication' (the FOMC had a presentation on the subject – to have been a fly on the wall...) Here are a few extracts, followed by a brief interpretation of what it all might mean. Full Story
Since the roaring 1950’s and 1960’s, the world’s economic growth has trended downwards over the subsequent four decades. In the last decade, this downward trend is even more pronounced for advanced economies, which include most European countries and the United States. When we compare the Great Recession with the Great Depression and the roaring decades in between, a few things stand out... Full Story
If you looks at the history of past financial crises then there is always a tipping point for gold and silver. Something happens to tip the balance suddenly in favor of precious metals. The failure of the German bond issue yesterday might well come to be seen by future historians in this light. For that means the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has gone right to the core. The idea that this gradual escalation of global interest rates can be confined to smaller nations is shattered. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Jordan Roy-Byrne - 23 November, 2011
Gold stocks may have been underperforming investor expectations for many months, but that could be changing very soon. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, explains how he uses relative strength analysis to pick winners for the readers of The Daily Gold Newsletter. His technical work points to a turnaround in precious metals stock prices in the coming months, leading to a huge market top near the end of the decade. Full Story
This SUMMER'S FIRST U.S. debt downgrade came after Washington failed to fix the debt ceiling one way or the other. Three months later, and Washington just failed again. Yet that first downgrade also saw 10-year Treasury yields fall to 3.0% as US debt prices rose. And today, with a second downgrade nailed on, that yield is already down below 2.0%. Full Story
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital - 23 November, 2011
With fiscal time bombs ticking in both Europe and the United States, the pertinent question for now seems to be which will explode first. For much of the past few months it looked as if Europe was set to blow. But Angela Merkel's refusal to support a Federal Reserve style bailout of European sovereigns and her recent statement the she had no Hank Paulson style fiscal bazooka in her handbag, has lowered the heat. In contrast, the utter failure of the Congressional Super Committee in the United States to come up with any shred of success in addressing America's fiscal problems has sparked a renewed realization that America's fuse is dangerously short. Full Story
Widely Held Opinion about Emerging Markets has it that Asia in general, and China (with its 1.3 billion people) in particular, will be The Great Growth Engine, which prospers while the over-indebted U.S. and Eurozone languish in the Slough of Despond. Indeed, that Opinion also sees Asian economies, and especially China’s, as assisting, if not entirely rescuing, the Eurozone and U.S., via Asia’s putative ever-increasing demand. Alas, it ain’t necessarily so. Full Story
Most of my writing comes from inspiration. The last eight or so months for stock pickers (and most market participants) has been most challenging and many no doubt would have questioned their strategy whilst wishing they had funds in a term deposit. Full Story
45 days after the end of each quarter, the top hedge fund managers are forced to release data on their long positions to the Securities and Exchange Commission. They probably do it with great reluctance, but it does give us a keyhole through which we can peek into their investing philosophy and we, of course, are interested in their attitudes towards precious metals. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 23 November, 2011
We continue to write about Europe, because we have too. At the moment and for at least the next several months, it will be the lynchpin and the catalyst that could bring about a financial chain reaction worldwide. In turn Europe poses the biggest risk to the US economy. European direction has changed over the past few weeks to cut loose the six problem nations and any others who cannot stand on their own and reform a core euro zone. Presently Europe is nowhere close to ending its sovereign debt crisis. Full Story
By: John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital - 23 November, 2011
This week, world attention finally shifted away from debt problems in Europe to the unresolved and worsening debt crisis here in the United States. The Congressional Super Committee, which had been created over the summer to postpone making tough cuts, chose to avoid responsibility itself. In so doing, the Committee has followed the path of least resistance and maximum irresponsibility. Full Story
I have come out of retirement for this one off, once only, speech to warn that the good ship “Life As We Know It” is sinking. You have the choice of getting into a life boat now or going down with the ship. The life boats consist of precious metals and other assets that will survive the coming currency destruction. Full Story
Will the rest of the world's stock markets, which are above their recent fall lows, hold up or will they follow these countries to new lower lows? Only Mr. Market knows for sure, but I am not optimistic on common equities here. When sovereigns are falling/failing, it is best to get out of the way and stay liquid. Gold is the best form of cash to hold through an international monetary crisis, as it has no counterparty risk and cannot have its value successfully inflated away by desperate governments and bankstaz (unlike paper currencies). Full Story
Swiss private bank Julius Baer spoke to journalists in Dubai this morning. The bank is mainly sat in cash these days but is poised to switch into equities and gold if the global economic environment changes towards inflation. Full Story
Our good friend Doug B., a financial advisor based in Boulder, CO, has done well for his clients by keeping them heavily weighted in bonds. In the essay below, he explains why he intends to stick with this strategy even though many of his peers expect a rebounding stock market to outperform fixed-incomes in the years ahead. For Baby Boomers in particular, the deflationary trend that buttresses Doug’s strategy holds stark implications. Full Story
By: Bud Conrad, Casey Research - 22 November, 2011
Though late to the party as usual, the proverbial man on the street – along with members of mainstream media and Wall Street heavyweights – is finally waking up to the decade-long, 700% increase in the price of gold, joining a growing buzz around the monetary metal. From questions whether gold is in a bubble to predictions that soaring prices are just around the corner, one thing is clear: a new phase of awareness for gold is upon us. How far might it move before these troubling times are over? Full Story
Today is options expiry day on the comex. Click this options information link now. A substantial rally in gold is likely, right here, right now, and may have already started from yesterday’s lows. Now, click this GDX comparison chart. This chart compares the performance of GDX against the Dow. Yesterday was a particularly bad day for the Dow, as concerns intensified about the European quagmire. 3. GDX put on quite an interesting performance yesterday, and ended trading yesterday almost at the high of the day! After trading as low as $54.92, it ended the day at $56.20, just off the $56.21 high. Full Story
The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present an incredibly powerful interview with Keith Neumeyer, Chief Executive Officer, President and Director of First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR / NYSE:AG). Mr. Neumeyer began his career at the Vancouver Stock Exchange and worked in the investment community for 26 years beginning his career in a series of Canadian national brokerage firms including McLeod Young Weir (now Scotia McLeod), then Richardson Greenshields and then Walwyn Stogell McCuthchen (which became Midland Walwyn). Full Story
By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor - 22 November, 2011
Relatively rapid inflation of the money supply -- say, a monetary inflation rate averaging 10% per year -- can occur for a long time without the "inflation" becoming "hyper". The reason is that a certain mass psychology must be present to create the condition known as hyperinflation. At the same time, hyperinflation cannot result from psychological factors alone. There must also be rapid growth in the money supply. Full Story
In China, paper money was a monetary form of ‘Hamburger Helper’, an addition to the royal treasury that allowed Chinese dynasties to stretch their budgets by allowing them to spend what they didn’t have. In the West, paper money had a different purpose. There, the invention of paper money would also allow governments to spend more than they possessed; but, in the West, governments would have to borrow their own money from bankers. Full Story
The current investor psychology of fear, indifference, and surrender is leaving them vulnerable as they miss the big catalysts that lie directly ahead. Gold and gold stocks remain in excellent position for a potentially tremendous 2012 and 2013. Required action from Europe, a shift in Chinese policy and more monetization on steroids from the Fed is going to catapult the bull market in precious metals like we haven’t seen since the late 1970s. Full Story
The worst-case scenario for Greece, should it be unable to secure further bailouts, might be that it would have to live within its means. Presently, spending only the money coming in is considered unbearably brutal. If Greece could only leave the euro, it could install its own printing press, inflating its sorrows away. Any economist will object: it’s complicated. But it isn’t: Greece could introduce a high-flying New Drachma, quite literally. Full Story
American businesses appear to be more confident than ever that their future is brighter than the market suggests. Now that stocks are on fire-sale, according to some investors, companies are buying at an adjusted valuation 15% lower than the start of the credit crisis. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks - 22 November, 2011
We view yesterday’s stock-market plunge as unrelated to the failure of the not-so-Supercommittee to compromise on a paltry $1.2 trillion in budget cuts. No one expected a deal in the first place, and even if there had been one, its effect on the economy, let alone on the deficit, would have been negligible. Who would ever have believed even a decade ago that a “mere” trillion dollars in Federal outlays would hardly be worth arguing about? Full Story
Never mind Berlusconi's resignation. The story coming from the European Debt Crisis is hardly fixated around one leader of one country. Instead, the biggest story should be that even the most simple measures of government reform continue to be the most impossible to pass. Full Story
By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch - 21 November, 2011
Of late we’ve seen clever moves by some precious metals mining companies to link the dividends they pay to the income they achieve on a quarterly basis. These include Silver Wheaton, Newmont, Hecla –no doubt to be followed by many more. Why have they decided to do this? The answer goes back to why we invest in the first place. We do so to make money to provide income and capital in the future. To do this we must maximize our total returns from those investments. Investments therefore must be money-making machines, not just good miners or growing companies. Full Story
By: The Gold Report and Chris Thompson - 21 November, 2011
Volatility in the markets overall, and particularly in the silver price, continues to deter investors, even the major producers, from stepping in on silver juniors. Chris Thompson, equity research analyst with Haywood Securities, talks to The Gold Report about what's next for silver. Full Story
There was a time when central bankers used to fight high oil prices with interest-rate hikes. But we are now in a different era with that equation, and central bankers are more likely to lament, as Ben Bernanke quipped in his spring 2011 press conference, that "the FED can’t print oil.” Yes, precisely. At the zero bound of interest rates and with debt saturation coursing through the private and public sector, the developed world faces not an inflationary restraint from oil prices, but rather an additional deflationary barrier. Welcome to the new oil cycle. Full Story
Resurgent investment lifted global gold demand 6 percent from the previous year to just over 1,000 tons during the third quarter of 2011, according to the latest Gold Demand Trends Report from the World Gold Council (WGC). The potent cocktail of inflationary pressures in the emerging world and the European sovereign debt fiasco left investors searching for a safe haven—they looked for it in gold. Full Story
By: Dr. Ron Paul, U.S. Congressman - 21 November, 2011
This week marks the deadline for the so-called congressional Super Committee to meet its goal of cutting a laughably small amount of federal spending over the next decade. In fact the Committee merely needs to cut about $120 billion annually from the federal budget over the next 10 years to meet its modest goals, but even this paltry amount has produced hand-wringing and hysteria on Capitol Hill. This is only cutting proposed increases. It has nothing to do with actually cutting anything. This shows how unserious politicians are about our very serious debt problems. Full Story
Headline news & the Market Weatherman Report. Spotlight Stock Picks. Host Chris Waltzek & Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster discussion and answer listener's questions. GUESTS: Gerald Celente Louis Navellier Full Story
Gold has behaved as predicted in the last update, which was two weeks ago. It advanced a little further into nearby resistance, before reacting back quite sharply on Thursday. However, whereas in the last update we were looking to buy on this dip in the expectation of renewed advance, we are now more cautious, due to mounting evidence that politicians and world leaders may soon be overwhelmed by deflationary forces despite their strenuous efforts to keep them at bay by means of endless QE. Full Story
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster - 21 November, 2011
German Chancellor Merkel keeps moving the field of play away from the European Central Bank, and to the people of the euro zone. That is so she can get legislation to remove the sovereignty of EU members. The pitch is, if the new EU is to work all fiscal decisions that will have to be determined in unison by bureaucratic technocrats, all of whom want world government. Full Story
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors - 21 November, 2011
Europe is again at center stage. At conferences and meetings and in private conversations, it is the topic of the hour. I have thought a lot this week about Europe and its impact, so once again we delve into what is an evolving situation. This time, we look at possible impacts on the markets, as we ponder the questions, “Are we back to 2008?” and “Is there a Lehman in our future?” and I try once again to keep from making this a book-length letter. And I close with some brief thoughts I brought back from DC on the Super Committee and the deficit cuts. Full Story
The recent market action has me wondering if the next leg down in the cyclical bear market has begun. I always expected that we would see a very convincing rally out of the October yearly cycle low. I thought it even possible that we would test the 200 day moving average. Most bear markets do rally out of the initial leg down and test the 200 day moving average. Full Story
Gold.ae has launched as the Middle East’s first ever online gold and silver trading platform, an indication of the growing interest in investment in precious metals in the region. It operates under the tax-free umbrella of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, a specialist freezone for commodities trading. Full Story
By: Rick Ackerman and Edward Furst - 21 November, 2011
We used to think Nobelist Paul Krugman was the Looniest Economist in America, but Rutgers professor James Livingston recently emerged as a solid contender with an absolutely dumbfounding op-ed piece in the New York Times that said, essentially, that America’s wealth has come mainly from Government spending and consumption, not from savings and investment. In the essay below, we give our friend Edward Furst, a member of Young Americans for Liberty, a rebuttal opportunity. Full Story
It was a fine week to head out of town to a tropical beach, sit, drink, read and swim to you hearts content and forget about this crazy market and the smashing gold and silver and most equities and indices took. Full Story
According to Reuters calculations based on data from the International Monetary Fund, central banks have bought a net 208.9 tonnes of gold so far in 2011. The IMF data has identified buyers for a net 20.0 tonnes in the third quarter, creating a mysterious discrepancy of nearly 130 tonnes. The WGC, an industry group, said it could not reveal the names of the buyers for reasons of confidentiality, which only added to the intrigue. Full Story
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