The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish. This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out. Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally. But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused. The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology. Full Story
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd - 25 January, 2019
It’s incomprehensible that the United States lumbered into a position of utter dependency on China for rare earth metals - ceding its 1950s monopoly to China either through ignorance of the importance of rare earths, or allowing itself to become a victim of subterfuge when it let Magnequench go to a company with close ties to the government of Deng Xiaoping.
We may never know who was asleep at the wheel, but we do know that the situation as it stands is untenable and must be corrected. Chinese magnets in American fighters and rockets propelled by Russian-made engines? C’mon. Full Story
For many of the world’s companies, the best investment opportunities aren’t always located within their own domestic borders.
Whether it is building a new Starbucks store in Abu Dhabi or Tata Motors acquiring Land Rover, foreign direct investment (FDI) is a measure of how much business capital is flowing in and out of countries.
In 2017, total foreign direct investment was $1.43 trillion globally... Full Story
Billionaire Sam Zell just announced that he bought gold for the very first time in his life because, as he puts it, “it is a good hedge.” In a recent Bloomberg interview, the Equity International founder and creator of the real estate investment trust (REIT) admitted to seeing an opportunity in gold’s increasing supply shortage.
“For the first time in my life, I bought gold because it is a good hedge,” Zell, 77, told Bloomberg. “Supply is shrinking, and that is going to have a positive impact on the price.”
He added: “The amount of capital being put into gold mines is at most nonexistent. All of the money is being used to buy up rivals.” Full Story
While we have been shut out of Canada lately, your secretary/treasurer has just been invited to speak again at two financial conferences in Asia and to appear on network television there and so should raise some money for travel and lodging. We aim to be heard wherever we can be.
Last week, we discussed our outlook for 2019 and the factors that will soon drive price to multi-year highs, and eventually, new all-time highs. This week, let's take stock of the current situation and attempt to discern the direction of price in the near term. If you missed last week's column, you should be sure to read it now. The months ahead will unfold in a manner eerily reminiscent of the year 2010. Full Story
The global economies must service about $250 trillion in debt, which is too much debt! The multi-decade central bank and government response to crises has been throwing dollars at the crisis and “fixing” excess debt problems with more debt. Like ten pounds of hamburger sitting in hot sun, the debt problem may not be rotten yet, but it will spoil soon. Full Story
Palladium might not fill headlines the way gold does, but it’s been on fire lately. Not only has the precious metal been the best performing commodity for two years straight, but its price also just shot past gold for the first time since 2001. For the first time ever, it broke through $1,400 an ounce last week before pulling back somewhat. From its 52-week low set in August, palladium has climbed almost 70 percent. It’s added about 16 percent in the past 30 trading days alone. Full Story
I’ve bent over backwards lately second-guessing my permabear side, on a hair-trigger as I wait for the short squeeze from hell to begin. Instead, the Masters of the Universe who supposedly control the stock market like it’s a PlayStation game can barely muster a decent rally other than fleeting ones on the opening bar. Have I perhaps overestimated the sleazeballs? Full Story
Numerous warning signals of a coming recession have appeared recently, and there have been rapid changes in bond prices, stock prices and Federal Reserve policies. Yet, the stock market indexes are rising again, and the economic and financial fundamentals remain strong in many ways. Are the widespread fears of recession overblown? Full Story
They say that there are no atheists in fox holes. Recently it has also become clear there are no monetary hawks in bear markets. For much of the last decade many conservative market analysts have decried our reliance on monetary stimulus to prop up the economy and the stock market. But in the final months of 2018, in the face of the worst stock market declines in a decade, many of these supposedly pragmatic figures quickly abandoned their convictions. Full Story
As a member of the British parliament in 1999, Sir Peter Tapsell, who passed away this past August, argued vigorously to keep the government from selling off over half of the country’s gold reserves. Previously, in the 1980s, Tapsell had managed a gold bullion fund, “valued at many hundreds of millions of dollars for the Sultan of Brunei, Sir Omar Saifuddin” – at the time one of the single largest private gold hoards on Earth. Though his argument before the House of Commons failed to stop the sales, it goes down as one of the most eloquent appeals ever made on the merits of gold ownership for nation states and individuals alike. Full Story
Last week, we joked that we don’t challenge beliefs. Here’s one that we want to challenge today: the dollar doesn’t work as a currency, because it’s losing value. Even the dollar’s proponents, admit it loses value. The Fed itself states that its mandate is price stability—which it admits means relentless two percent annual debasement (Orwell would be proud). So there is no question that the dollar loses value. The only mainstream debate is whether this is good or bad. Full Story
As with gold, the correction in most gold stocks could be over! Note the bull wedge in play and the soft volume on the recent price decline. Now there’s a spike in volume and that could mark the end of price softness. A sell-off in the US stock market seems imminent, and I told gold stock enthusiasts in August to expect solid action from GDX in a stock market meltdown. That’s exactly what transpired… and the same thing is likely about to happen again! Full Story
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 4.36 percent on acute supply tightness. JPMorgan sees additional upside to the price despite weaker auto sales. Gold traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg remain bullish on the yellow metal for a 10th straight week even as prices remain near the $1,300 level. ETFs added gold to their holdings for the 15th straight day. So far this year, according to Bloomberg data, ETF net purchases totaled 917,554 ounces. Full Story
An Arizona legislator has put forward a bill to de-risk the state’s financial holdings with a modest allocation to physical gold and silver in the state’s reserve fund. Introduced by Representative Mark Finchem (R-Tucson), the Arizona Sound Money Stabilization Act (HB 2500) requires that at least 10% of Arizona’s Budget Stabilization Fund be held in the monetary metals in a secure depository. Full Story
Thousands of political, business and cultural leaders are heading now towards Davos, Switzerland, to attend the World Economic Forum. On the eve of the world’s biggest annual gathering of the rich and powerful, the International Monetary Fund released its newest world economic outlook. What are the forecasts – and their implications for the gold market? Full Story
The business cycle has its stages, and they’re usually both predictable and logical. For example, governments tend to generate a lot of tax revenue late in an expansion as more people get jobs and start paying income taxes and rising stock prices generate big capital gains. Meanwhile, less has to be spent on social safety net programs because everyone is working. Combine higher tax revenues and lower spending and you get shrinking deficits. Full Story
The silver price trended lower last week after hitting a high of nearly $16 the prior week. So, what’s in store for silver and the broader markets this week? If we look at the moving averages and what is taking place in the broader markets, we may find some clues. It seems as if the silver price over the past two weeks has been moving in the opposite direction of the Dow Jones Index and the broader markets. Full Story
Summing up, the bearish outlook for the following weeks has been confirmed by multiple factors, i.a. silver’s extreme outperformance and miners’ underperformance, gold’s performance link with the general stock market, gold getting Cramerized, and many more, but the above are now confirmed by also short-term signals. Full Story
Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC returns to Goldseek.com Radio with a cutting-edge dialogue on Bitcoin. Fiat money is quickly becoming a true "barbarous relic" thanks to the unsound policies of global central bankers. Ryan Walsh, the Canadian "Nikola Tesla" makes his show debut, presenting his research with potentially world-changing implications. Mr. Walsh appears to have uncovered a most important scientific discovery. Full Story
Having watched Van Helsing I thought "There must be a way to work this stuff into chart analysis" and there is, for tomorrow night there is a "Super Blood Wolf Moon Eclipse" which might synchronize with a reversal in the markets. Before you burst out laughing, I point out that it is an established fact that reversals in the Precious Metals often synchronize with full and new moons, and whether this is a matter of astrology or simple gravitational pull or a combination of these factors is an open question. Full Story
Don’t we just love a bear market rally. Or is it? Since the markets made a low on December 24, 2018, the SPX 500 has rallied some 13.6%, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) is up 13.4%, and the TSX Composite has jumped 11.1%. The broad-based NYSE is up 12.8%. Pretty impressive. But to put it in perspective, the SPX 500 is still down 8.8% from its high close, the DJI is off 7.9%, the TSX Composite is down 7.6%, and the NYSE down 8.2%. Is the glass half-full or half-empty? Is the bear market over and the bull resuming, or is this, as we have claimed, merely a bear market rally? Full Story
This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical up-turn. Full Story
This week’s letter focuses on China’s economy. We’ll look at some numbers showing the challenges China faces, but they don’t explain something important. The way China will meet those challenges is going to be substantially different than we would see in the West. So I want to start with a little context. Full Story
Barron's this week has a surprisingly favorable report about the prospects for the gold price and gold miners in light of the recent Newmont-Goldcorp and Barrick-Randgold combinations. But the report repeats without question the worst misinformation about the gold price, quoting a fund manager as saying gold is attractive because "it's an alternative currency whose supply can't be increased much." Full Story
There is no need to chase anything now as there will be plenty of time to get into cheap juniors that can triple and quadruple once things really get going. Recall that many juniors began huge moves months after epic sector lows in January 2016, October 2008, May 2005 and November 2000. Don’t chase the wrong stocks right now. Full Story
The U.S. Shale Oil Industry has been a financial trainwreck since day one. And, with nearly $300 billion in public and private debt racked up by the shale industry since its inception, that hasn’t stopped investors from throwing good money after bad to continue the biggest energy Ponzi scheme in history. Full Story
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